Otto von Ballpark

I don't think so. Javier signed in 2015 but I don't think that year counts towards his minor league free agency, since he wasn't actually assigned to a roster until 2016. That would put him on track for minor league free agency following the 2022 season (if he's not on a 40-man roster by then, of course).

Ian Hamilton is an interesting case. He's not on the 40-man, but he's not quite eligible for minor league free agency yet either (only 6 seasons of minor league experience, and outrighted only once too). So Hamilton is controlled by the Twins into 2022, even if we don't add him to the 40-man roster this winter. He would be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft, however. That's probably part of the reason he wasn't brought up for a late season audition.

Also note that players who have been outrighted before can elect free agency if you outright them again. I believe that applies to the following fringe Twins 40-man guys: Kyle Barraclough Danny Coulombe Luke Farrell Ian Gibaut Juan Minaya Rob Refsnyder Similarly, players with 7+ seasons of minor league experience become minor league free agents if they're not on a 40-man roster during the offseason (i.e. outrighted): Willians Astudillo Jake Cave John Gant Kyle Garlick Ralph Garza Jr. Cody Stashak Lewis Thorpe Any of these guys would be able to shop around a bit for a different opportunity, even if they clear waivers.

Garza Jr. actually has 2 option years remaining. He wasn't added to a 40-man roster until May 2021, so this was his first option year. Not sure if that's enough to warrant sticking around on the 40-man roster, though. (He's gone unclaimed in the last three Rule 5 drafts.)

The current CBA doesn't "expire" until Dec. 1st, so we'll have to set our 40-man for the Rule 5 draft by then anyway. And that's not a hard expiration either -- the provisions of the current CBA stay in effect after its expiration as long as the parties are still bargaining toward the next one. I'd expect a new agreement sometime after the new year, before spring training begins.

Jax wouldn't be subject to the Rule 5 draft unless he cleared waivers and was outrighted off the 40-man roster. (But I agree, he'd almost certainly get claimed on waivers right now, if only to be waived again shortly thereafter by the claiming team.)

I think Jax made this impression in his first few starts, but I'm not sure that it held up as the season wore on. Jax, 1st 5 MLB starts, first time through the order: 5 GS, 4 H, 0 XBH, 0 R, 3 BB, 0 HBP, 11 K Jax, next 9 MLB starts, first time through the order: 9 GS, 12 H, 8 XBH (6 HR), 12 R, 6 BB, 2 HBP, 14 K His 4 relief appearances don't help either, first time through the order: 4 G, 9 H, 3 XBH (2 HR), 5 R, 4 BB, 7 K All told, he had a 5.39 FIP/xFIP the first time through the order this season, 5.10/5.36 after moving into the rotation. Still a fairly small sample, and obviously it can't account for the potential of his stuff playing up in the pen, but it doesn't appear that he has shown any particular first time through the order ability thus far.

That's interesting. 8 of Rooker's 9 HR were of the solo variety. Here's the RBI breakdown from his B-Ref game log: RBIs in 213 PAs 16 Actual Runners on Base 110 (66-32-12) Avg. MLBer w/ 213 PAs 25 Avg. Runners on Base 128 (65-42-21) FWIW, the "average MLBer" (non-pitcher) also hit 7 HR per 213 PA, not far off from Rooker's 9. Looks like Rooker didn't see quite as many runners in scoring position as the average hitter, but a .152/.263/.242 line (.506 OPS) with RISP didn't help either! Additionally, .133/220/.200 for a .420 OPS with runners on first.

#1 is basically just #2, with an aging curve applied. There's not a whole lot that's controversial about public projection systems, unless you're looking at a FIP or BABIP outlier or something. And if you're just looking at projected WAR for the upcoming season, based on the previous season(s), then you're not accounting for that aging curve. In a long-term deal, a team expects more WAR out of a player in year 1 & 2 of a FA contract than they do in later seasons. What you describe as "$6 mil per WAR" for a guy like Harper could mean $6 mil per WAR for the first few seasons, gradually hitting $8 mil per WAR for the middle years, and then $10 mil per WAR near the end. What's the best way to describe that? $8 mil per WAR isn't perfect, but I think it's better than saying $6 mil per WAR. You're generally paying in years to get the lower $/WAR rate today.

I'm a little confused. You say in point #1 that the figure is based on future projected WAR, then describe in #2 how people misuse it by applying it to past performance instead. But then you proceed to make a bunch of calculations and conclusions based on that same assumption in #2. This kind of calculation has to be based on future projected WAR because players age and we're looking at a lot of longer-term contracts. Take the Josh Donaldson deal: $92 mil guaranteed over 4 years, age 34-37. He was coming off a 4.9 fWAR / 5.4 bWAR season, but here were his ZiPS projections going forward: Age 34: 3.8 WAR Age 35: 2.9 Age 36: 2.1 Age 37: 1.0 That was 9.8 projected WAR, or $9.4 mil per. Now, the Twins aren't just using ZiPS and probably liked the odds of Donaldson beating such projections, but if these figures tend to fall in the same ballpark for FA contracts league-wide, then it's probably a decent estimate for the overall market.

It's interesting, most seasons have some chaos potential in their late stages -- and higher-percentage two-way ties too, not just longer-shot 4-way scenarios. But it all seems to sort itself out by the season's regularly scheduled end, and even mild chaos is generally averted. 2012 saw the introduction of the second wild card, theoretically expanding the potential for tiebreaker chaos, but we've only seen 3 tiebreaker games in that time: 2013 AL Wild Card #2, and one each for the 2018 NL Central and West. (And 2018 wasn't particularly chaotic, as the 5-team NL playoff field was set after game 162. The two game 163 losers just had to match up in the wild card game, like a little double-elimination tournament.) Additionally, the last single wild-card season (2011) had both the AL and NL wild card races go down to the wire but both were sorted (in dramatic fashion) on the season's final day. I wonder, do most teams in that range either rise to the occasion or falter before tiebreakers are actually necessary?

Reusse's not a fan either -- wonder if there will be any follow-up with the team by a local scribe:

Maybe this means they’ve already seen enough of Maggi to make him the opening day shortstop next year.

538 has game-level odds, which take into account the starting pitchers, home field, etc. I don't know how good they are, but here are the relevant games for today: TEAM CHANCE OF WINNING STARTING PITCHER TEAM RATING STARTING PITCHER ADJ. TRAVEL, REST & HOME FIELD ADJ. PREGAME TEAM RATING Rays 49% Wacha 1578 –14 0 1564 Yankees 51% Taillon 1551 –2 24 1573 Padres 36% Knehr 1518 –16 0 1502 Giants 64% Webb 1561 14 24 1599 Red Sox 58% Sale 1521 26 0 1547 Nationals 42% Adon 1478 –7 24 1495 Orioles 31% Zimmermann 1411 4 0 1415 Blue Jays 69% Ryu 1545 –12 24 1557 Brewers 31% Anderson 1542 –33 0 1509 Dodgers 69% Buehler 1611 17 24 1652 Angels 42% Detmers 1488 –17 0 1471 Mariners 58% Anderson 1499 4 24 1527

The Nationals may have the tallest order today. Not only do they have to beat Sale, the Nationals starting pitcher is making his MLB debut, with only 3 games at AA and 1 at AAA. He's not a top prospect either -- only 40 FV at Fangraphs, 22nd in the Nationals org (also 22nd at MLB.com).

Fangraphs helpfully has a tie probability page: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/coin-flip/tie-breaker I like the "coin flip" odds at this point, with so few games remaining. 3-way tie for 1st and 2nd wild card: 12.4% 4-way tie for 1st and 2nd wild card: 6.3% 2-way tie for 2nd wild card: 25.0% 3-way tie for 2nd wild card: 12.6%

Actually, a 4 way tie would be pretty straightforward. 2 tiebreaker games one day, then the wild card game featuring the tiebreaker winners. Would be fun to watch, but not terribly chaotic. A 3 way tie for the second wild-card spot would be most chaotic, at this point. After seeding them in A, B, and C designations, Team A would host Team B, then the winner of that game would have to play Team C, and finally the winner of that game would advance to the wild card game against the top wild card. I think I prefer the 4-way tie because it's a little more fair -- I don't want two of the tied clubs forced to win 2 elimination games while the top wild card rests for a few days.

Great comeback by Seattle last night — it is really a delight to listen to their games with sold-out crowds and amped-up announcers. Standings as of Sunday, October 3: TEAM W L PCT WCBG COIN FLIP ODDS REMAINING SCHEDULE Yankees 91 70 .565 — 87.3% 1 vs TB Red Sox 91 70 .565 -- 79.7% 1 at WSH Blue Jays 90 71 .559 1.0 16.3% 1 vs BAL Mariners 90 71 .559 1.0 16.7% 1 vs LAA Relevant games today (all on MLB.TV): 1. TBR (Wacha) at NYY (Taillon), 2:05 PM CDT 2. BAL (Zimmermann) at TOR (Ryu), 2:07 PM CDT 3. BOS (Sale) at WSN (Adon), 2:05 PM CDT 4. LAA (Detmers) at SEA (Anderson), 2:10 PM CDT

Old friend Hansel Robles trying to close things out for Boston right now...

Heads up, the Nationals just tied the Red Sox in the 8th inning, in a game with AL Wild Card implications...

Well, the Rays and Jays are certainly doing their parts! Both won again today (and won big). Boston is leading 1-0 late, Seattle still on tap for tonight.

John Gant to the IL, and Charlie Barnes is recalled once again.

Saturday update:

Well, Seattle lost late last night, so now the Yankees and Red Sox are both in the driver's seat. Standings as of Saturday, October 2: TEAM W L PCT WCBG COIN FLIP ODDS REMAINING SCHEDULE Yankees 91 69 .569 +1.0 95.9% 2 vs TB Red Sox 90 70 .563 -- 74.4% 2 at WSH Blue Jays 89 71 .556 1.0 15.0% 2 vs BAL Mariners 89 71 .556 1.0 14.7% 2 vs LAA Relevant games today (all on MLB.TV): 1. TBR (Baz) at NYY (Montgomery), 12:05 PM CDT 2. BAL (Means) at TOR (Manoah), 2:07 PM CDT 3. BOS (TBD) at WSN (Gray), 3:05 PM CDT 4. LAA (Diaz) at SEA (Flexen), 8:10 PM CDT

Fascinating games so far tonight! And mostly the desired outcomes here. Toronto led 6-0 but barely held on to win vs the Orioles. The Yankees mounted a comeback but fell just short in a loss vs Tampa Bay. Robles made things interesting but Boston ultimately prevailed over Washington too. Seattle’s game is just underway, we will see if they can keep pace.