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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Inside the park HRs seem like a good compromise.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Below is a comparison of umpire performance. On the left, Tuesday night's performance, described as a "horrow show" by the author. On the right, Wednesday night's performance, "one of the best umpired games I can remember watching." I suspect umpire praise/tolerance/criticism is more strongly correlated with one's favored team performance than with actual umpire performance (at least as represented by these charts).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    It's still a suspect contract, and I am always suspicious of investing that much money in a reliever, but Kimbrel is actually on the comeback trail! Since giving up runs in his first 4 outings this year, here's his line: 12 G, 11.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 7 BB, 24 K, 1.59 ERA, opponents batting .108/.267/.108 for a .375 OPS In September, he's been even better: 6 G, 6 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 11 K. No guarantee it will last, of course, but it looks like we'll get a chance to see him in high leverage in the postseason again, which should be interesting either way!
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup -- the teams Ryu have faced have scored 5.13 runs per 9 innings overall; Maeda, only 4.22. Additionally, B-Ref grades the Toronto team defense as poor and the Twins as solid. Those two factors give Ryu a better bWAR than Maeda. Fangraphs gives the advantage to Maeda, though, due to a better FIP. Still, both have had very good seasons, by either metric. Would be fun to see them face each other in the postseason!
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    If so, we got the best of Max's love... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-Tb80rmPt4
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, yeah, I saw that quote too. But Manfred is kind of infamous for saying he will consider anything! He said the same thing about the regular season, and the lack of progress on that front makes me doubt they'd try it out for the first time in their carefully orchestrated playoff bubble. I don't doubt that people would be interested! I could see attendance limited to player families who are already "in the bubble", and of course a few high-profile high rollers quarantined themselves up in the luxury boxes, promoting FOX shows and the like. But I have a hard time imagining a ticket lottery for fans or anything like that.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That outfielder was Daryl Boston -- the current White Sox first base coach! I wonder if he looks back on that game now, and thinks he should have tried throwing his arms in the air to signal a ground rule double...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Option rules are pretty much the same. Dobnak will have to spend at least 10 days off the roster before he can come back, unless someone goes on the IL or there's a doubleheader. But with Odorizzi back, there was no scheduled "next start" for Dobnak anyway. The Twins have 5 SP on the roster now without him, plus 2 off days next week and no doubleheaders (for now).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Would seem fitting if Dobnak is now on the “taxi squad.”
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Is there any amount of jelly that will make him edible again?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I had't realized it, but I guess it makes sense to send out Dobnak now, unless you want to go to a 6-man rotation or put Dobnak in the pen. We could perhaps use a long reliever out there, although I don't know if Dobnak would be suited for the role. (Odorizzi and/or Hill could work in that role for the postseason.)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Greg Gagne had two in one game (in consecutive plate appearances, no less): https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN198610040.shtml Why yes, it was at the Metrodome: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I76wIWY1Tyc
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    That's true -- rosters are still capped at 28, there are no more crazy huge September rosters like in years past.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm guessing that's just wishful thinking or PR hopefulness from MLB? In-person fan attendance doesn't make all that much sense in a neutral site bubble situation. It would be one thing to let a limited number of select Minneapolis residents into carefully controlled sections at Target Field for a game, but I'm pretty sure they will not want to deal with fans from various cities flying to California and Texas and coming into the stadium, while otherwise living completely outside bubble protocols. Maybe a few rich people will get let in, like the Marlins jacket guy.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    If the Twins are the 4 or 5 seed and they advance, they will be playing in San Diego (Petco) for the DS round. And the CS round is already set for San Diego too. We're currently #4 seed as the best 2nd place team. We'd be 5th if the Yankees (currently 2 behind us) or Blue Jays (2.5) pass us. We'd drop to 7th or 8th if Cleveland (3) passed us.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I was just about to mention that! Article in The Athletic (paywall) says the rate of "barrels to homers" in Dodger Stadium is actually higher than at Target Field the past 3 years, and suggests Petco is good for RH power which would help the Twins: https://theathletic.com/2068889/2020/09/16/sarris-which-teams-should-benefit-most-from-mlbs-new-playoff-structure/
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    What if TEX/HOU and SDP/LAD all advanced to the CS round? It's not a requirement, but I'm sure MLB appreciates being able to finalize all of their bubble arrangements now for Arlington for Oct. 18-28, rather than waiting and having to prepare contingency plans. A new ballpark to show off in Arlington helped too, I am sure.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Good post! I was confused about this at first too. Further explanation: 1. Guaranteed good weather or a roof is necessary to avoid delays (which would cause doubleheaders and/or throw off the whole schedule) -- this disqualifies pretty much every northern ballpark without a roof. 2. I think they want the stadium pairs close so the DS winners can drive relatively quickly to the CS stadium. (Insert joke about California traffic here.) Air travel compromises the "bubble" isolation more than ground transport. 3. The ALDS/ALCS is only being played in a pair of NL stadiums, with the opposite for the NLDS/NLCS, to ensure no team is playing those rounds on their actual home field. CA and TX are really the only places left that could meet this criteria. And fortunately one of the CA/TX teams (the Rangers) is already virtually eliminated from postseason contention, so they can safely be designated as the World Series host.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to the responses above, I'm pretty sure every person allowed into the bubble/clubhouses is going to be tightly regulated -- even cleaning and maintenance. As long as the players aren't ordering pizza and going outside to meet the delivery driver, they should be OK.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay, here are the called strike comparisons:
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    If the strike zone calls seemed to favor the White Sox pitchers over the Twins pitchers, I wonder how the approaches of each team's batters affect that? If the White Sox were a bit more free swingers, they are more likely swinging at pitches close to the zone anyway, while if the Twins are more patient, they are taking more of those. Yet again, not a defense of the ump or human umpiring in general, but under the current system of human umpiring, a known risk of a patient approach is putting more calls at the umpire's discretion.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, it's easy to look at those pitches right up against the box and conclude the ump was wrong, but that's maybe millimeters? Probably within the margin of error of any pitch tracking system. The ump may have still been "wrong" but Twins batters likely can't discern strikes/balls on that edge any better -- and indeed, they've never played under a system with a hard edge like that either. (Disclaimer again: not a defense of the ump or human umpiring in general. I'm intrigued by robo-umps and would be very interested to see them, assuming the calls are made instantly.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Where's the evidence that "more often than not it went against the favor of the Minnesota Twins"? I'm not claiming it didn't, but wouldn't you also need to show the zone the Twins pitchers received to make that claim? EDIT: Found it! Select "All Away Pitchers" in the first drop down (or "All Home Pitchers" if that is what you want), then "Pitch Description" in the last drop-down, and then in the unlabeled box next to that, you can type/select "Called Strike". Can't get the "Save as Image" function to work, but here's the link: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=631483&game_date=2020-9-15&type=team_away&chart_view=pitch&chart_type=description&inning=&count=&batter_hand=&pitcher_hand=&filter=Called%20Strike&player=home-pitchers_605240&view=Umpire&coloring=Pitch%20Type (And before anyone jumps down my throat, no, this is not a defense of the umpire or human umpiring in general. Just a response to the author's statement that the umpiring favored the White Sox.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    What's your source for following this scenario? I just added up all the 2+ runner on base splits for the 2020 season at B-Ref: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2020#bases::none Looking at hits minus HR, divided by AB minus HR, with 2+ runners on base, the Twins rank 11th in MLB this year. Ranking behind us include playoff-bound teams like TBR, NYY, CHW, LAD, and OAK. Keep in mind, MLB batting average overall is at its lowest point since 1972, and isolated power is higher in 2019-2020 than it has ever been in Twins franchise history (since 1961) -- so everybody is getting fewer non-HR base hits than before, in all situations: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=1961&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=1961-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=12,a
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    More importantly, no off-days except between series. Even if you sweep the first two rounds, you may need 4 starters to do so.
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