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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, I doubt we will see this exact playoff format applied to a 162 game season. Manfred has suggested some form of expanded playoffs will continue, but I suspect it may not be 16 teams, and/or there will be stronger incentives for winning divisions (like byes or getting to start a series up 1-0).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to the above posts about the extremely unbalanced schedules (Houston played 7 games, 5 on the road, against NL West teams with better records than any Twins opponent), also note that incentive to win impacts a team's overall W-L record. Houston hasn't had much incentive to push to 32-33 wins -- they weren't likely to catch Oakland or the top 2nd place team in the AL, and they didn't have a strong threat pushing them from behind either. So their decisions -- pitcher usage, IL placements, even trades before the deadline -- have been made under different criteria. That's not likely to swing a team's record too much, but it could easily impact a smaller gap. HOU and TOR were both 28-27 just a few days ago. With different incentives, maybe HOU approaches the last 5 games differently. I'm definitely open to the argument that Houston is a worse club than the others this year, but I don't particularly mind if they are the 6th seed -- the 7th and 8th seeds knew the rules going in and each had numerous chances to defeat the 2nd place teams in their divisions head-to-head.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I saw that speculated, although Gray is in an odd spot — he missed some time on the IL, then returned last Tuesday. His next turn would be Sunday, and if that game is meaningful (if they could pass the Cardinals for 2nd place), maybe they start him then? He could actually still pitch in the wild card game 3 on regular rest then... Edit: Gray on Sunday is now official: https://twitter.com/nightengalejr/status/1309951244719489026?s=20
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    So the Reds are guaranteed a playoff spot now, currently sit in the #7 seed. Looks like 1 more win would guarantee they don't get the #8 seed (and draw the Dodgers in the first round). If they win 1 more than Miami over the last 2 games, the Reds could jump up to the #6 seed and draw the Cubs. (Although it's still fairly complicated with St. Louis.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    You're right that we won't likely see Trevor Bauer on Sunday on short rest anymore. But keep in mind, the NL has an extra off day before their wild card round (starts Wednesday) compared to the AL (starts Tuesday), so the Reds could still start Sonny Gray on Sunday and use any and all of their relievers with minimal impact on their playoff staff. (Gray would be available on full rest for game 3 if they wanted, but they'd also still have Bauer-Mahle-Castillo lined up too.)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I just realized there is a worse outcome than the Twins losing to the Yankees this postseason: the Twins losing to a different team, while the White Sox or Cleveland defeats the Yankees. (Shades of 2006.)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    By single season Twins free agent fWAR, Phil Hughes 2014 actually beats Cruz. Odorizzi, Morris, and Tewksbury are right around him too. Among position players, Cruz prevails. #2 is Willingham, then Davis, Thome, Hudson, Molitor, Pagliarulo...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure what kind of postseason role Colina could have, being called up so late. Even Graterol didn't see any meaningful innings in last year's postseason, and he was up for most of September.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Wow. Edwar Colina has been added to the active roster in his place. An option for the playoff pen?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    It is still mathematically possible, but that is the only way. A single Tampa win, or a single loss each by Minnesota and Oakland, and Tampa clinches the #1 seed. Tampa is hosting the Phillies, so it seems exceptionally unlikely that they will lose out. Tampa is 17-9 at home, and the Phillies are 9-16 on the road -- and just lost 3 of 4 to the last place (albeit reigning champs) Nationals.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    A Cleveland loss would also erase that chance, and their game tonight starts an hour earlier so it will likely conclude before our game too. But it's against Pittsburgh, so Cleveland is expected to win, and anyway, go Twins!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    This is good info, but beyond overwork, could exposure also be an issue? In a shortened season with a division-heavy schedule, these Detroit batters have seen the same pitchers repeatedly in a short time frame. Good news is, that shouldn't affect our weekend series vs Cincinnati, and depending on who we draw for the first round of the playoffs, it might not be a factor there either.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Clevinger leaves the game after 1 inning for San Diego due to an apparent injury (after having this start pushed back due to "biceps tightness").
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, the NL wild card round begins a day later than the AL round, so even Friday starters this week will be able to pitch game 1 on regular rest in the NL. I think Cincinnati moved up Bauer so they can *make* the playoffs -- they are in an extremely tight race and playing a direct competitor in Milwaukee, so tonight's game effectively counts double toward their playoff chances compared to this weekend's games vs the Twins. Plus, Bauer pitching tonight also leaves open the possibility of using Bauer again on Sunday on short rest, or out of the pen. Probably a mini-version of how the Brewers used C.C. Sabathia late in 2008 before he left as a free agent. (Mini compared to Sabathia's workload and his frame )
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct, and that is how the Twins are setting it up now. But before that was announced, just extrapolating that last turn through the rotation, it would have been Pineda before Berrios.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    And some of those Chicago Blackhawks teams were pretty bad but made the playoffs anyway -- the NHL at that time had only 18 teams in the whole league, and 12 of them made the playoffs. So the Twins current streak is arguably worse.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Dobnak started on short rest a couple weeks ago! (Due to a doubleheader.) But yeah, in modern MLB, virtually no one uses starters on short rest outside elimination games, so I don't think Rocco's record up to this point means much in this regard. And I too don't think he'd start someone on short rest if he had a good alternative -- for example, I don't think he'd use Maeda on short rest if one of Berrios, Pineda, or Hill was available on full rest. But right now, there seems be a pretty bright line after our top 4 starters, pending what Odorizzi, Bailey, and/or Dobnak might show before then.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    With a 28-man roster, there is no need to leave Rogers off the roster, even if you don't want to trust him in key spots. There is no roster crunch. Just take the current 28 man roster. If you want to activate Arraez, you can deactivate the third catcher (a third catcher seems especially like overkill for a best-of-3 series) or Wade. If you want to activate Odorizzi or Dobnak, you can deactivate Bailey.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs odds update! Twins division odds up to 30.3% after last night.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, there are 3 scheduled off days between the wild card round and the start of the ALDS. So Maeda-Berrios-Pineda could start game 1, 2, 3 of both rounds on 5 days rest each (which even gives us room to tolerate a rain out during the wild card round). Hence, no reason to leave the 4th starter (Hill) off the wild card round roster -- he can be available as an emergency starter or in relief. (And you should choose someone to start ALDS game 1 who you would be willing to start again on short rest in a potential game 5.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe, but only in an emergency in the second round, I think (like a SP getting sick or injured). They could use their top 4 on normal rest for everything except a potential game 5, which would be winner-take-all -- and I suspect they'd rather just start Maeda on short rest and empty the pen if it comes to that. The third round might be more likely to require a 5th starter -- if we're not facing elimination in game 5, we could roll out a 5th starter and then have Maeda back on normal rest in game 6. Not to get ahead of ourselves, of course!
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Odorizzi is ineligible to return until Sunday; Dobnak is ineligible to return until Saturday (unless someone goes on the IL).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Y'all are acting like Homer Bailey is waiver wire fodder. He was a league average SP for a whole season in 2019, for a team in a pennant race after the trade deadline, including 2 strong starts vs NYY. With no spring training this year, he held the Cardinals to 2 runs in 5 IP. Even with his most recent absence, I doubt he is that much less likely to beat the Tigers tonight than any other Twins SP.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    True -- Twins relievers have seen the second fewest inherited runners. (Cleveland has the fewest.) Although I'm not sure that's a bigger factor than the score and inning, in determining Stashak's leverage. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2020-reliever-pitching.shtml#teams_reliever_pitching::12
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    TouchEmAllGuy is correct -- passing the A's doesn't really mean anything by itself. If we also pass the White Sox and win our division, passing Oakland too will have us face the #7 seed instead of #6. I think it may also gain us "home field" -- meaning, bat last in game 1 -- if we met Oakland in a later round, in the bubble? At least, that's how I presume they will determine "home team" in the bubble.
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