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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. I guess it makes sense that the 10-day option rule would affect playoff rosters this year, because otherwise a team could option a bunch of guys on the last weekend (especially pitchers after they've thrown, like Berrios etc.), effectively breaking the 28 man roster limit with no penalty. In a normal season, teams can't option players after Sep. 15 or so because the minor league seasons/postseasons end by that date, so it's normally a non-issue. I suspect if Buxton had his HBP scare a day earlier, we would have found a way to keep Wade on the roster instead of needing to add Kirilloff?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB.TV is specifically advertised as not including playoff games. They have never included them. All postseason games are available on national TV, games which have never been included on MLB.TV. Given that, and the low price of the product, it's not reasonable to expect it to include playoff games. But good news: YouTube TV has every single postseason game (30-50 games, depending on how long each series goes), with DVR, for only $65. Edit: today’s game was even free nationwide on ABC if you had an antenna or access to Locast.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll share SoDak's reply to this post as soon as it is delivered to the Twins Daily P.O. box.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Thielbar was helping coach the Augustana baseball team before the Twins brought him back to pro ball this year. Here's his bio on the school website: https://goaugie.com/sports/baseball/roster/coaches/caleb-thielbar/2342
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Around here, we call that "playing Astros style"
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting, thanks for sharing. I guess the 10 day option minimum still applies. (Normally it's not an issue this time of year because you can't option a player anywhere after the minor league seasons end.) In that case, with Donaldson out and Marwin likely needed at 3B, they probably had no choice but to roster Kirilloff, whether they intend to use him or not. FWIW, that would mean Wade is ineligible for the ALDS roster too. (Unless someone gets hurt, of course -- but then the hurt player would be ineligible for that series and the following one.)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    No, Kirilloff will not earn any MLB service time in 2020. Taxi squad / alternate site players didn't earn any, and postseason days don't count toward service time. Kirilloff will get postseason shares, though (extra pay).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Mondesi had potential usage a pinch-runner. Although he ultimately only made one appearance: a strikeout pinch-hitting for the pitcher in an eventual 9-3 loss, after the Royals already took a 2-0 series lead (on their way to a 4-1 series win).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Looks like we should expect some pinch-hitting for catchers? Although we don't have a lot of pinch-hitting options -- Kirilloff obviously, Cave maybe (but probably need to keep him available in case you need him in the outfield, or pinch-running?).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Kubel came up in September 2004 for 67 PA in the regular season, and did well -- .300/.358/.433, reasonable K rate. Got placed on the postseason roster and drew the DH start for ALDS Game 2, but went 0-for-6 that game, including an unfortunate 3-pitch strikeout vs Rivera in a tie game with runners on 2nd and 3rd and only 1 out in the 8th inning. It was not Kubel's first time facing Rivera, though. He had drawn a 4-pitch walk and popped out to short on a 2-1 count in two regular season PAs vs Rivera the previous week.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Corresponding move not yet announced. Kirilloff was already postseason eligible, due to being included in their 40-player postseason pool last week, but they will need to clear a 40-man roster spot to actually add him to the 28-man active roster now. (And the 45/60 day IL is no longer an option to make room, since the regular season is over.)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Could always be worse!
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Shouldn't be. Kirilloff has been unable to earn a full season of service time since about August 13th. He probably passed the usual "super 2" cutoff by Labor Day.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspect they were favored in 2006 vs the A's, but I haven't been able to find definitive proof yet. But there's this: https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/mlb-main/?y=2006&sa=mlb&a=al&o=r Yes, Liriano was injured, but we still had Johan and home field advantage. And Oakland was a huge Pythag over-performer that year.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    It's going to be a long postseason, so they'll need both eventually if they're going to be successful. Given Hill's age and health history, it looks like he might be able to handle a longer layoff better (and may even benefit from the extra rest), while Berrios might need the regular work more. And while neither has much recent work out of the pen, Hill worked predominantly out of the pen from 2010-2015 so he might be better suited for that assignment than Berrios too.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Very few closers are truly "lights out" and in modern MLB, with starters pitching so few innings, you need bullpen depth.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    No offense, but "started and ended with Joe Nathan" seems like the kind of thing a clueless national media figure would say about the Twins bullpens of the 2000s. Before Nathan even came here, the 2002 playoff bullpen had 5 very good pitchers. 2004, 2006, and 2009 probably did too, at least by this criteria. (Be sure to look beyond K/9 which has been increasing league-wide.) 2010, Nathan was hurt yet our pen may have been 6 deep that postseason. Bullpens were largely a strength of the Gardy/Anderson years, and generally did not hold us back in the postseason either (outside of a single-game blow-up by Rincon in 2004, and another by Nathan in 2009). The 2019 and 2020 bullpens may indeed be deeper, although starters are throwing less now too -- successful postseason pens of the 2000s didn't need to be deeper than 5. Also note that, like the Maeda vs Liriano comparison above, the 2020 pen so far has only faced 1 team ranked above 20th in run per game which might be boosting their stats relative to pitchers who faced a more balanced schedule of opponents.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Liriano was absolutely an ace for a single season in 2010 using this criteria. He ranked 14th in the AL in ERA, and 2nd in FIP. Even that difference in ERA rank is distorted by 2020's heavily unbalanced schedule. Maeda only faced 1 team ranked better than 20th in runs per game, CHW for 2 starts out of his 11 (18%). By comparison, Liriano had 21 such starts out of 31 in 2010 (68%). Maeda is a very good pitcher having a very good season, but I don't think it's possible to draw a line that marks him as a ace right now but excludes 2010 Liriano. (At least not until Maeda carries us to the World Series! )
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a cool stat, although it's worth remembering that overall league batting average is near an all-time low, which means WHIPs are naturally lower. The league this year hit just .245, lowest in the modern era since "year of the pitcher" 1968. Compared to Pedro's 2000, where MLB non-pitchers hit .275, the highest mark of the modern era! Combined with the small sample of 2020, and this isn't surprising that the 2020 leaders look good in this stat. Of the top 10 lowest WHIPs among qualified starters since 1961, 3 were in 2020, another was in 2019, and another 2015. Still good pitchers, and good seasons, but I'm not sure how to compare them historically.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, it counts as an unearned run. But if they want to continue this rule, this might be a worthy scoring tweak.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Objectively, seems like the game 2 SP matchup could be a wash. Valdez 11 G, 70 IP, 83 ERA-, 65 FIP- Berrios 12 G, 63 IP, 89 ERA-, 91 FIP- (If they go Urquidy, he is definitely more of a wild card with the small sample, although he was quite effective last postseason.) Frankly, McCullers vs Pineda seems close too. Pineda has better rates this year but in a much smaller sample. McCullers has been pretty consistent when healthy, and has been excellent in the postseason (while Pineda has never pitched in the postseason). Even Greinke may not be that far off Maeda — by FIP-, they are about equal, 64 vs 67. (ERA- is 94 to 60, though.) Greinke almost won WS game 7 last year. Twins will obviously have the home field advantage, and on paper have the better offense and bullpen. SP was actually a strength for Houston, even without Verlander — Twins may still hold an advantage there too but less than the other factors.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, I'm guessing similar sentiments were once expressed about the 1987 Twins (and later the 2006 Cardinals, etc.). Baseball survived! Also, while baseball is inherently more underdog-friendly, I don't think it's necessarily bad to challenge the better teams to "put up or shut up" so to speak in the postseason. The Dodgers may lose 2 random games in a row to the Giants in July with nothing on the line, but if they know elimination is at stake, they should be able to step up in October and get it done. And it would be compelling baseball -- lose the first game, and now all of a sudden we see a very good team in the Dodgers pulling out all the stops to win game 2 -- all their best pitchers available at any point in the game, situational hitting instead of just swinging for the fences, etc. Agree that we wouldn't want to put teams through that gauntlet all the time, and like I said I don't think the 2020 format will continue exactly the same going forward.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, I doubt we will see this exact playoff format applied to a 162 game season. Manfred has suggested some form of expanded playoffs will continue, but I suspect it may not be 16 teams, and/or there will be stronger incentives for winning divisions (like byes or getting to start a series up 1-0).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to the above posts about the extremely unbalanced schedules (Houston played 7 games, 5 on the road, against NL West teams with better records than any Twins opponent), also note that incentive to win impacts a team's overall W-L record. Houston hasn't had much incentive to push to 32-33 wins -- they weren't likely to catch Oakland or the top 2nd place team in the AL, and they didn't have a strong threat pushing them from behind either. So their decisions -- pitcher usage, IL placements, even trades before the deadline -- have been made under different criteria. That's not likely to swing a team's record too much, but it could easily impact a smaller gap. HOU and TOR were both 28-27 just a few days ago. With different incentives, maybe HOU approaches the last 5 games differently. I'm definitely open to the argument that Houston is a worse club than the others this year, but I don't particularly mind if they are the 6th seed -- the 7th and 8th seeds knew the rules going in and each had numerous chances to defeat the 2nd place teams in their divisions head-to-head.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I saw that speculated, although Gray is in an odd spot — he missed some time on the IL, then returned last Tuesday. His next turn would be Sunday, and if that game is meaningful (if they could pass the Cardinals for 2nd place), maybe they start him then? He could actually still pitch in the wild card game 3 on regular rest then... Edit: Gray on Sunday is now official: https://twitter.com/nightengalejr/status/1309951244719489026?s=20
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