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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Here you go! See the columns IR, IS, and IS%: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018-reliever-pitching.shtml
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    You can't trade a guy like Trout and expect anything close to full value in return. And it's not just Trout -- they only have Simmons for 2 more years too. These Angels are right around .500, and 76-68 by Pythag, despite some massive black holes. They have the financial resources to go after Machado, Ramos, the top SP, etc. to supplement Trout and Simmons, if they want. Keep in mind they have a fairly new front office too -- they hired GM Billy Eppler just a year before we hired Falvey and Levine. He's not responsible for Pujols, Weaver, Hamilton (whose contract just came off the books this year), etc. The farm system has been slowly improving. I think he's probably earned the chance to see what he can do these next 2 years with Trout, Simmons (one of his first acquisitions), Ohtani, etc.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    You think the Angels should tear down right now? I understand they have had some frustrating finishes, but they have too much talent to start a tear-down now.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Much ado about Machado?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The Angels likely aren't going to rebuild during Trout's last 2 years under contract. Simmons has averaged 5.2 bWAR the last 6 years. With 2/28 remaining on his deal, at age 29-30, I think he would be prohibitively expensive (think Royce Lewis).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Can he? Erv was pretty awful this year even after plenty of rest and rehab -- he might be cooked. I think I'd rather take a shot on someone else at this point, if at all possible.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    It was pretty bad before that too. Belisle, Motter, Bobby Wilson. A bunch of marginal relief "prospects", many of whom have been added by the new front office. I don't know about worst of my lifetime, but the bad roster was part of the reason we had to sell at the deadline.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    There are plenty of articles out there citing how Buxton was disappointed in the decision, how the Twins recognize this, and how his agents and his union reps are looking into it for a possible grievance. Here's one: https://www.twincities.com/2018/09/01/twins-hope-to-make-amends-with-byron-buxton-who-wont-be-recalled/amp/ Maybe it was still a wise decision for the team, maybe it will all blow over eventually, but please don't pretend that the short-term negative consequences are simply fan speculation.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Although perhaps related to your other point, this roster is full of Old Yellers.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Start following the NL right now -- there are some awesome races and storylines going on over there. Upwards of 6 relevant games every night. And then come back to the AL for playoff time -- yeah, a few great teams have helped make September less exciting this year, but that could also be the recipe for a pretty compelling October.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't look now, but 2018 might be another 90 loss season (currently on pace for 88).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I noticed that Cave led tonight's Twins lineup with 10 HR for the season, while all 9 Yankees in their lineup have more HR than that (every guy has 11 or more). Albeit most of McCutchen's were with San Fran.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Those were the days of "draft and follow"... and follow... and follow...
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    What if the 18 combined hypothetical great hitters and defensive whizzes are all ex-Twins?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    They are in the same time *zone*, at least. That has to count for something! At least the front office hasn't let the franchise drift westward.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I know that! But Motter otherwise met Vanimal's criteria. And we even brought back Gregorio Petit after outrighting him off the 40-man earlier. This is grievance material!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Taylor Motter:
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty compelling games in the meantime too -- 7 game homestand vs the Dodgers and Diamondbacks starting tomorrow, and a 6 game road trip vs those same 2 clubs the following week. If you've got MLB.TV and you can't stomach the Twins anymore, these look like some great games!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Tom mentions that these odds were from the end of August. At that time, the Rockies were still in 3rd place, 1.5 games out (and 3.5 out in the wild card too). Fangraphs had their playoff odds at 21% then, and they are up to 48% today (where they lead the division as you mention, and are only a half game back of the wild card).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I think this point has got muddled too. I think the *universal* cases all happen at the beginnings of careers, because that is where the stakes are highest. I am sure manipulation can happen at other times, but once you send a guy down, even just once, you have likely seen the stakes reduced dramatically, and as I pointed out, other factors come into play and clubs are going to respond to those differently. And manipulation after the first year or two is much harder to execute too, because there are more moving parts. It would be interesting to study. I am guessing that beyond the top players/prospects, the distribution of guys falling just short of a full year or service, or just short of Super 2 arbitration status, wouldn't be all that different from what you expect through random variation. There would probably be a few attempts at service-time jockeying within, but a lot more noise.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I have said repeatedly that all teams engage in service time manipulation. And I believe that when the stakes are high enough, like Bryant early career situations, they will do so pretty much universally. No disagreement there. If you think that is what I have been disputing, I apologize, that was not my intent at all. Where I joined this conversation was where Chief said that he's not convinced that all teams would have done this with Buxton. And I agree -- as the benefits to manipulation are lowered, it seems logical that behavior would increasingly diverge among teams. (Up until the other logical extreme, where all teams would universally *not* manipulate -- no team is going to manipulate the service time of, say, Buddy Boshers! To pick on a former Twin with an alliterative name.) On that narrow point, all anyone can do really do is infer, and maybe just on a case-by-case basis. And there is nothing wrong with that, just a difference of opinion. I don't know what the breakdown would be -- maybe 15 teams would do as the Twins did with Buxton, maybe 15 wouldn't? Maybe 10 would have held him back in 2018, maybe 10 others would have done it in 2019? It is very hard to say, because some clubs may have approached it differently in the past so it may not even have been an issue by Sep. 1st. And it may not even be consistent by organization -- a week ago, I might have guessed the Twins wouldn't have done it. They didn't even try with Sano this year. Maybe they wouldn't do it next time either. Maybe this time, there was just the right set of circumstances to cause that decision for this club.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    The Hindenburg airship was really interesting to watch too!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    None of us here have "evidence" in this area beyond what we can personally infer from contracts and such. A blog post about Drury is no more an example for your position, than me pointing out logical issues with that blog post is an example for my position. It is a lot of opinion, and we disagree. So can we keep this respectful and not demean other opinions as "cute" and such? We can just agree to disagree at this point, no need to taunt or gloat about that.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins fans, here is your daily standings site! http://www.tankathon.com/mlb
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    10 days minimum for a minor league assignment. Unless someone goes on the DL, then you can recall the player sooner.
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