LA Vikes Fan

If we could trade Larnach for Bradley Rodriguez, I would do it in a heartbeat. I'd even throw in a 20 to 30 prospect to get it done, especially if they add an A Ball lottery ticket. Rodriguez has a 2.10 ERA , a 1.19 WHIP, a 2.67 FIP, and a 3.60 SIERRA. He's 22 years old in his second year in the Bigs. Something like Larnach and Amick. Ross, or Rosario for Rodriguez and an A ball guy with upside would be fine by me. That's exactly the kind of deal where it makes sense to trade Larnach.

You all make valid points, but I think you’re missing an important part of the analysis – what do we get in return and how does this go down in the clubhouse. We have a number of players that we hope will want to stay with the Twins long-term. We can’t make trades that show we are giving up on the season again and expect these guys to want to stick around when they get the chance to leave. We cannot trade Larnach for prospects or frankly anybody that doesn’t immediately join the major league roster and make a contribution. If we do, the clubhouse is going to see it as a vote of no confidence and it’s likely we will collapse again. Nobody wants to be on that team long-term. So while I get the arguments for trading Larnach and think they have some validity, I only do it if we can get quality major league help back. The perfect trade, of course, would be Larnach for a quality relief pitcher with closing experience, even if we have to throw in a mid-level prospect to make that happen. Bottom line, unless we’re getting a guy who is immediately on the 26 man roster and either playing regularly or making a real contribution in the bullpen, I say you wait till the off-season to trade him.

I’ve seen some interesting content here about position players ready for promotion, trading specific guys, and some potential position changes, but I don’t remember seeing much that solves the real problem for this year’s Twins – fixing the Bullpen. You hear talk about trading for relief pitchers at the deadline, but that’s going to be very expensive this year in terms of prospects and only has about a 50/50 chance of success. History is littered with trades for relievers that didn’t work out. I want to fix the problem internally, not hope we get lucky externally unless Boston will trade us Chapman for a decent AA prospect and an A ball lottery ticket. Good luck with that. I’d love to see some analysis on the guys in our system who we think could come up and help the bullpen now. And by now, I mean, call them up today or tomorrow and give them a month-long run before the deadline to see if they can be part of the answer. I start with the premise that there are a minimum of three open spots. Voth will be DFAd today if he hasn’t been already, Adams doesn’t look ready and may never be ready, and painful as it is to say our old friend Taylor Rogers should either go on the IL or retire. He’s cooked. There are three open spots minimum. I leave Preilipp, Rojas, and Paredes to cover the fourth and fifth starter/long man reliever spots and I think Orze is very shaky, but I leave him for now to be replaced when Sands is ready to pitch. Gomez, Banda, and Morris are the late inning guys. I also don’t think Ober or Able will be ready in the next month to either help in the bullpen or hold down a starting spot and kick Paredes into the pen. I actually think when Able is ready to come back that the bullpen may be the better place to put him for the rest of this year given his elbow issues and I would seriously think about making him the closer. I have one other criteria. No pitcher over 30 with no options. I want guys 28 or younger that can be part of a long-term bullpen, not Band-Aids we grab off the waiver wires. Even though the Gomez experience turned out to be positive, most of them aren’t. Based on all that, I say we promote Funderburk, CJ, Culpepper, and John Klein to replace Voth, Adams and Rogers. Today or tomorrow. Funderburk was very good the second half of last year and his slow start this year may be the result of his wife’s illness and the new child as much as anything to do with his pitching . I think Culpepper and Klein are the best of the rest at AAA, although Roznek is intriguing. That’s my attempted solution to our biggest problem, but some of you guys know a lot more about what’s available in the system that I do. What does everybody else think?

I think this makes the most sense. I would send down Gray rather than Fedko. I would keep up Martin since he did have a good start to the season and showed last year he can hit major-league pitching, but I do see an argument for sending Martin down for a "reset". Still, Martin is a very good defensive outfielder in the corners and has hit in the past, something neither Gray or Fedko has really done at the major-league level. I question whether Fedko is a major-league player and I don't think he's going to get enough at bats on this team to find out unless we force the issue. His best chance of getting a real tryout is if we fall out of contention and trade somebody. Otherwise, Fedko may be more the kind of guy you throw in on the trade to get somebody else from another team but he needs to get playing time for us to find that out. Playing time should not be a problem if we replace Gray with Roden. We all tend to think about one guy per position but the reality is that basically you need at least 12 guys for the eight positions plus DH and all 12 should get fairly regular playing time - 9 regulars, 1 utility outfielder, 1 utility infielder, and a second catcher. I think you call up Roden and he gets regular time (4-5 days a week) in right field with LF a Larnach/Martin platoon. Clemens can play 4 to 5 days a week by being a super utility IF playing 2 to 3 days a week split between 1B and 2B, at least one day in CF, and another at 3B or this 5th day can be another day of Clemens at 1B with Lewis at 3B. Lee becomes the backup SS and Kreidler plays a lot. Clemens can get another day in the corner outfield on the days Roden sits. Martin and Fedko essentially become the 4th/5th OFs as shortside platoon players in the corners against LH starters and also as late inning defensive replacements/pinch-hitters/pinch runners. The DH spot is open a day or two a week when Bell sits (he never goes in the field). This way the "regulars" play five days a week, everybody gets an extra day off to stay fresh, we can handle the 7 game weeks with guys who have been playing some, and we actually have some pinch-hitting bats available. Wallner is tougher because he's such a poor outfielder but he's had hitting success in the past. I really think he's going to have to wait until there is either an injury or Bell is traded to open up the daily DH position. It's a real conundrum because I think we really have to see this year whether Wallner can be part of the long-term plan since we know Bell is not, and it's hard to see that if he doesn't get up and get regular at bats. He also can't hit left-handed pitching so he's not really a complete replacement for Bell and we don't really have a right-handed hitter that can be the DH against left-handed pitching unless we take some risk and give Jackson that role or give it to Martin or Fedko. Wallner's situation really got worse because Larnach has played so well this year that he's made a good case as a slightly better than average starting MLB OF. At this point, there just is no room at the Inn for Wallner in the outfield. So bottom line is I would get Roden up and get him up now at the expense of Gray. Gray said he was planning on retiring if he didn't make the team out of spring training so he may retire but if he does his utility infielder at AAA role goes to Arcia if we need to call someone up for injury help. More likely, the next move is Culppeper forces his way up at the expense of whichever one of Martin and Fedko gives us the least value, i.e., whichever one hits gets to stay.

Trade Jeffers, keep Larnach. Caratini and Jackson look like a decent pair behind the plate and Jeffers is going into free agency after the season. Try to get bullpen help for Jeffers, hopefully a young AA starter who can apprentice in the BP this year. I agree though, trade him to the NL, not to the Yankees. I can't believe I'm typing this but I would keep Larnach. The vaunted AAA OFs aren't going to be ready this year except for Roden and maybe Emma if he can ever get healthy for more than 3 weeks at a time. Fedko doesn't look good so far (admittedly a very SSS) and Martin has fallen victim to Outman disease. There's room in the OF even with Larnach here and there's no guarantee that any of the AAA guys will keep his OPS over .775 for a long period like Larnach has. He's actually a bargain at less than $5m a year. He still can't hit LH pitching so maybe give GG a shot as his platoon partner but other than that, the guy has performed. You keep guys who perform.

Amen, Brother. Lawrence is the worst pitcher of all of the flotsam and jetsam we've tried in the bullpen this year. I figured he was gone with the way Shelton pulled him from Saturday's game where we lead 16-2 and he gave up 5 runs in 2/3 of an inning. He couldn't get out there fast enough and he looked like he was cursing under his breath. He wouldn't even look at Lawrence when he took the ball. If you can't even get a couple of decent innings out of a guy when up 14 ruins and the other team is pulling its regulars, then when can you pitch him? We were operating one guy short in the bullpen until Lawrence was replaced. That's not fair to the manager, and not fair to a team that's playing hard and trying to win and stay relevant. Thank God he's gone.

I think we have to keep Jackson. I expect them to trade Jeffers before the deadline for Pitching, including hopefully at least one MLB ready reliever, Caratini and Jackson are the tandem for the rest of the year barring injury. Also, keep in mind we can't send Jackson down because he's out of options and he will be claimed if waived, so I don't think we have any choice but to keep him on the big club.

This. The guy has something of a pedigree; he was Detroit's opening day CF two years ago. He looks reasonably competent in the batter's box, and better than competent at SS. He should be playing SS every day. He deserves the shot the way he's played. More importantly, the pitchers deserve a chance to pitch before a competent MLB IF, at least at SS. Look, the name of this position is "hold down SS until Culpepper or Marek Houston is ready". Kreidler has won the job. Give him a real shot to hold it down.

The logical to trade candidates are Rogers and Jeffers. Rogers is the classic aging reliever who's had some success but may be in his last year and doesn't figure in anybody's long-term plans. Plus, he is left-handed and breathing which means a lot. The problem was trading him and suggests not much you can get for him so I bet he stays. With Jeffers, I would make an effort to sign him but in the much more likely event that he wants to test free agency, we really have no choice but to trade him for prospects. We've seen what the team looks like without him and it's not that bad. Ryan and Bell are little more interesting. I'm think you could get just as much for Ryan in the off-season as you can now, particularly from wealthy team that thinks they can re-sign him. Or you can get now is multiple high-end prospects, in the off-season you might actually be a major-league player. Bell has been hitting well lately but it's just hard to see that we can get much for him. I'm not sure for whom we are trying to open up at bats by trading Bell. The question is whether you want to bring Wallner back. There are too many outfielders ahead of him now to give him any realistic innings anywhere other than DH, so I could see trade Bell for the minimal expected return to Wallner the chance to show he can hit enough to stick around. Other than that, you can see training Banda but he is friends with Shelton and I just don't think they're going to trade him given that he's been effective now for about six weeks. Larnach just doesn't have a big enough market to make it worth trading him, and the rest of the guys stay in my view.

Excellent comment. Looking at someone’s year long statistics when they’re just arriving at the Major league level can be very misleading . Morris has definitely improved since he joined the big club. I personally think that he and Gomez have a better than 50/50 probability of developing into solid to very good late inning relievers and Gomez could actually be a closer. Banda is what he always has been with the Dodgers, a decent, but not great left-handed reliever who struggles with right handed hitting. He’s definitely worth keeping around, I wouldn’t trade him at the deadline unless we have someone to replace him, but he’s not the answer to our need for at least one more dependable late inning arm. The Twins really need another solid late inning guy. Rodgers, Lawyerson, and Orze maybe be decent middle relievers, but but they are definitely not that guy. Adams and Lawrence should be pitching in AAA or for somebody else. My hope is that Rojas will come back and be that back end force from the left side that we need. I really think the bullpen is not that far off from actually being pretty good. Lose Adams and Lawrence, and replace them with Rojas as a late inning guy and Paredes as your primary Long man and you actually have a decent bullpen.

It does, you’re right. My bad. I guess I agree with you pretty much entirely.

I agree with the OP except for keeping Jeffers. He's a free agent at the end of the year so trade him for hopefully a good AA prospect type or two. Nothing prevents us from re-signing him as a free agent, so we haven't really lost a lot other than the chance to make a QO. I would absolutely keep Ryan unless blown away by an offer that includes a cost controlled middle of the order bat. Do not trade him for just prospects. His value will be high in the off season, and I don't buy that we will get "more" at this year's trade deadline than in the off season. Play the "kids", keep Ryan in the rotation so you have some stability, and hope for a run. If you don't get one, at least you've sorted out the players from the pretenders. Whatever you do, don't play guys that aren't going to be here for the at least the next 2 years. That means goodbye Bell, goodbye Larnach, Lawrence, and Gray, and maybe goodbye Taylor Rogers and Ober.

I think that's the play and the reason that Fedko for Arcia makes sense. I think Gray and Kreidler will be a rough platoon at SS. Gray has a fielding run value of -3 and a range value of -2 according to Baseball Savant, Kreidler -2 and 0, with Gray having the better arm. In other words, Gray is slightly below average and Kreidler is average there. I have to say the eye test tells me that Kreidler is much better at SS but what do I know. It seems like Fedko's shot is to be the 4th OF playing in a corner against LH pitching instead of Larnach (and subbing for him when they bring in LH relivers), moving Martin down one since he isn't hitting. Fedko should get his first shot tonight against a LH starter. Bigger picture, there's a real opportunity here. If we believe in the Lewis resurgence, this team has 4, maybe 5 guys worth hitting every day - Buxton, Clemens, Lewis, Lee, and maybe Keaschall if the last 2 weeks continue. Everything else is open. If he can hit, there are plenty of places to play him. I hope they give him a real run over the next 2-3 weeks and see what we got.

Good for him getting an opportunity. I see him getting his at bats at the expense of Martin, who is really scuffling. Clemens is .286/.315/.569 over his last 116 ABs, better over the last 50, and Lewis is raking so those 2 play every day at 1B and RF. With Keaschall showing signs of life, Kriedler plays SS and Gray is the UTL. Lee needs some days off. Fedko fits in as a platoon mate for Larnach and Martin moves to the bench as a pinch runner/defensive replacement.

I think a lot of Morris' recent problems are because of inconsistent control and command more than anything else. When he misses, he misses by foot or more, not an inch or two. The last two times I've seen him pitch he threw uncompetitive pitches in every at bat – the kind of pitches nobody would ever swing at. That lessens his margin for error on all of his other pitches pretty dramatically and gives hitters a chance to be very selective. Bradley has the same problem. When you look in an effective pitcher like Ryan you notice that his balls are typically a few inches out of the strike zone and are at least somewhat tempting. Guys like Morris and Bradley throw breaking balls that are foot high, spike changeups, throw fastballs 2 feet inside or outside, etc. - Pitches that just have no chance of ever tempting a batter to swing the bat or causing any concern. The good news I think this is fixable with time and experience. Some of this is nerves and overthrowing, some of it is not trusting your stuff in critical situations. Look, I would say that Morris is potentially part of the bullpen solution. We need to keep throwing him out there to gain experience and confidence. That goes for a lot of other guys on this team. This year is going to be ugly at times as we try to develop players and some of those ugly moments are to come in Morris is on the mound.

I agree that its now time to get up the young guys Contending this season is not happening. A more realistic goal would be to play .500 ball in the second half and finish with about 76-78 wins. We've essentially brought up every pitcher with a chance and will still be doing that as Adams, Funderburk, Klein, etc. ride the train. Time to start with the position players. The two that seem to make the most sense are Culpeper at SS and Fedko as an OF/1B. I'd get Fedko up this week replacing Kreidler. I'd then choose between Gray and Arcia as my utility IF, DFA and hope to trade the other by month end for a lottery ticket and bring up Culpepper by the end of next week. Then, play Culpeper, Lee, and Keaschall pretty much every day, and get as many ABs for Fedko as possible. It's time to find out what we have. for the next few years. Gray and Arcia an re not part of the next few years. Frankly, Clemens and Bell aren't either but Clemens is hitting and playing D so we should keep him in the lineup and Bell we need to get going so we can trade him for a lottery ticket next month.

Lewis is starting at 2B today. I think he will see time there, an occasional day at 3B to give Lee a break, and as a DH. I think Clemens is the 1B for the foreseeable future given that he can actually field the position and is hitting well. I expect to see. Keaschall at 2B and LF, occasional DH. I think the loser in all of this from playing time standpoint will be Josh Bell who I think they’re probably actively trying to trade. Any word on who is taking Outman’s open 40 man spot? Might be time for Fedko to get a look.

By the way, the DFA of Outman should also create a 40 min spot, I believe. It will be interesting to see if they fill that with Fedko and call him up, as another pitcher, or what the plan is.

Royce Lewis is starting at 2B today. Clemens at 1B, Keaschall on the bench.

See above.

So if we go Fedko for Outman, where and how often does Fedko play? It would make sense if the idea is to rotate 3 guys (Larnach, Martin, Fedko) through LF and RF, with Fedko also getting some time at 1B. It doesn't make sense to have Fedko be a late inning pinch runner/defensive role like Outman is now. That role would go to Kreidler. This would also limit the ABs for Clemens some and would potentially move Bell down the pecking order as well. All makes sense to me.

Martin has value at the MLB level. The real question is whether that value is as a starter or 4th outfielder. I don't think any of us thought he would hit even 15 HRs a year, so his value has to come from getting on base and playing good defense. The defense appears to be there. He's a starter it he can get his batting average to around .280 with a .350 OBP, a 4th OF if those numbers are closer to .250/.325. I still bet on the former, but I could see him being the latter. Both are valuable. I do think the Twins are doing exactly what they should do with Martin this year. Play him and see what we have. That means playing him through slumps for awhile to see if he can come out of them. Same for Lee, same for Keaschall. We did the same thing with Lewis and Wallner but they could never come out of their slumps so they did the right thing and sent them down. It looks like Lewis may be back sometime in June. On the pitching side, same thing with Morris, Prielipp, Matthews, Gomez, Orze, Lawyerson, Klein, Adams, and with Rojas and Abel when they come back. This is an evaluation year. It's going to have its ugly moments but we have to go through this to find out what we've got.

Nice write up, especially for guys like me that don't know a lot about the guys in the lower minors. It's unfortunate we don't have more guys at the AAA or even AA level that are worthy of being in this article., Also, excellent use of the word "cromulent". It is a truly underrated word that simply does not get enough exposure.

SWR's fall is so hard and came so fast it makes one wonder if there isn't something more going on like an injury or a personal issue that is effecting his performance. If that's not the case, I don't think the Twins had any real other option here. They could not continue to run him out every fifth day as a starter and maintain any credibility with the clubhouse. I think they're trying to create a culture of "performance matters", hence the demotions of Lewis and Wallner, and the DFAs of Topa and Garcia (all of which might not have happened if Falvey was still in charge by the way). If performance matters, SWR was clearly not performing and could not be allowed to stay on scholarship. Why not in the bullpen? We all keep writing how this bullpen is a bunch of mediocre pitchers, and lacks high velocity guys or guys with one outstanding pitch. So here's another mediocre or worse pitcher without high velocity or any one outstanding pitch and we're complaining they didn't put him in the bullpen? SWR was DFA'd because his performance was terrible and the Twins are trying to win games. It's just a simple as that. It does suck that he is out of options and we couldn't send him to AAA and try to see if he could recapture his form, but that's the way the system works. If we want to get better, have to be willing to part with people who aren't helping the team. SWR was not helping the team. By the way, I haven't read anything about him being claimed on waivers. Does anybody know any different? I think the process still has a few days to play out but who knows, maybe no one else will want him now either and he can be sent to AAA. I'd be very surprised to see another team pick him up and put him in the rotation, so I think the only shot is a bad team throwing him in the bullpen to see if they can figure out his problems. That's kind of a waste of a roster spot for a guy who's upside is your fifth starter so I wouldn't be shocked if he went unclaimed.

I guess I wasn't clear. I want to trade Ryan (if we do) for guys that are in the Majors in 2027, developing into guys who can help us win in 2028-2032. In other words, a high upside prospect that's ready to develop in the Majors - think the hitting equivalent of Abel with more experience, not Mendez or Tait. I think the goal is to get guys who help make the division/wild card competitive window crack open a bit next year or 2028 and help us be competitive to win the division/make noise in the playoffs by 2028/2029. That's trading for someone who is ready to get jump in their whole body wet now but needs some MLB struggles/seasoning before they can be meaningful contributors. It takes at least a year of roughly full time MLB play before someone becomes a meaningful contributor, usually two. I want that development year in the Bigs to be 2027, not 2029. I'm thinking someone analogous to Martin at the start of this year but with higher upside, plus a reliever of the same ilk, guys who can be regulars in 2027. Martin is undergoing his development year now in the hope he can be a meaningful consistent contributor in the front half of the lineup in 2027. Same for Keaschall. What I don't want to do is trade Ryan for the equivalent of couple Eduardo Taits; guys with high upsides who won't arrive in the Majors until 2029 or 2030. Those trades just push out the competitive window farther. If we want to trade for someone that can help us win now, we have to wait until the off season and hope to trade Ryan plus for an cost controlled established middle of the order bat. Those bats aren't available at the deadline. I also don't think we get that for Ryan.