LA Vikes Fan

No offense Sam, but this just doesn’t make any sense from a money saving perspective. Saving $10.5 million is bubpkis money for an MLB team. The only reason that trading makes any sense is to get value for guys who don’t fit in your competitive time window. I would say that’s the best argument you could’ve made. It certainly applies to Jeffers. The problem is that while Ryan could get you a big haul, the other three guys aren’t gonna get you anything of value. None of them is worth an MLB ready talent or anyone ready next year. The best you could hope to do is get lucky on A ball guys who turn out to be something four years from now. More likely you will trade those guys for players who have to be nothing more than organizational filler. Almost as bad, you give a signal to the fans and the teams that you don’t think you’re gonna be competitive anytime soon, not this year, not next year, maybe 2028 if you’re lucky, but more likely 2029 or later. I just think a big selloff is not only a bad baseball move, it’s a bad business move. I look at this is very similar the idea of trading serious prospects for guys like Sonny Gray or other aging, expensive players. We shouldn’t do that either. This team isn’t good enough to mortgage the future for. If you make trades, you make trades for controllable players or MLB ready prospects, and you trade guys you’re going to lose for nothing at seasons end like Jeffers. I think the right move here is to do a little buying of controllable players, if you can get them, sell Jeffers because you don’t want him to walk away for nothing, and move on. If you got a couple of prospects, you think can help next year, get them up to the big club to get their feet wet. Ryan is the much tougher call, but I would keep him unless just blown away by a package that includes guys with an MLB track record and then trade him in the off-season. Otherwise, play this one out.

(1) 3/4 starter - Emerson Hancock or Jose Soriano. Would love Detmers but the prospect cost will be too high. New starter moves Matthews to the BP; kills 2 birds with 1 stone. (2) Late inning reliever - Sam Bachman, Jose Ferrer or Antonio Senzatela. Fantasy trade is to get Hancock and Ferrer from Seattle for Jeffers and either Emma, GG or Mendez. (3) Bat to use against LH pitching - Luis Arraez or Lane Johnson. Hey that's more than 3 guys but only 3 spots.

I love me some vintage Royce Lewis, but that is not the guy we presently have. I watched him run home with the lead run yesterday and he looked like a 45-year-old man carrying a refrigerator uphill. The two ACL tears have really hurt his athleticism. He did have an .842 OPS in June so maybe the bat could still play but he will always be limited in the field because of his previous injuries. I think it will be another year before we really even know what we have because it will be that long before he's fully recovered from those injuries. Trading him is an interesting idea, but no contending team is going to want him for the same reasons we might want to trade him. I think the better move is to trade him to a team like the Angels, Giants or Rockies; teams that need to rebuild and might be willing to take a chance on Lewis regaining his form before they have to decide whether to pay him. You won't get much in return, but maybe he could be packaged with a guy like Emma or GG to get a controllable mid rotation starting pitcher, or with a 10 – 20 prospect to get a very good controllable reliever. I'm not sure that unique combination is available out there but that's a trade I would make if it was. I don't think packaging Lewis with Jeffers gets you anything worth having that you couldn't get with Jeffers alone. If the kind of return I mentioned isn't available, I think were just going to have to hold onto him and hope his physical condition improves enough so he can get back to where he was before all the injuries or at least to being 80% to 90% of that guy.

We can all argue about how good this year's team is and whether we should buy or sell. I think the ceiling is about 85-86 wins, getting a wildcard or winning the division if Chicago and Cleveland tank, winning one playoff series, and then being quickly shown the door. I think the floor is 72 – 75 wins if we make no moves, have some injuries, and the pitching completely falls apart. I want to make the moves that get us the best chance to hit the ceiling scenario without hamstringing us in the short or medium term. I think it's possible if you make the following three trades and I think all of them can be done. I ran all them through Baseball Trade Values, if you believe in that site, and all said they were either fair trades or a minor overpay by the Twins so I don't think any of them are fantasy, pie-in-the-sky stuff. Here they are: Trade 1 – Twins trade with Seattle Twins get: Emerson Hancock and Jose Ferrer (or Gabe Speier) Mariners get: Ryan Jeffers and either Emma, GG, or Mendez. Good trade for both teams. Mariners get the right-handed bat they need at a position of need for this season when they have a real chance to win a crappy division and the pitching to make noise in the playoffs. Cal Raleigh has a .573 OPS trying to play through a strained oblique. He can either go to the bench or be a DH, but is still be around next year when he isn't hurt. They also get an outfielder that might help them this year but really can help them long-term who is completely controllable. Twins get mid rotation starting pitcher with 4 arbitration years left, plus either a 26-year-old (Ferrer) or 31-year-old (Speier) LH reliever who is performing well this year and has at least two years of control after this year. Twins put Hancock in the rotation, move Prielipp or Matthews to the bullpen, and that with the added reliever upgrades the pitching immensely. Even better, you've done it by trading a guy won't be here next year with the only real pain being the trade of a high-end prospect at a position where we have several high-end prospects. Trade 2 – Twins trade with the Mets Twins get – Luke Weaver. Mets get – Ryan Gallagher, James Ellwanger. Khadim Diaw, or Yasser Mercedes, but only one. The Twins get a solid right-handed reliever who is having a very good year and who they can keep for $12M next year. Mets get a good but not elite prospect and can decide whether it's more important to get pitching or hitting. Another good deal for both sides. By the way, BTV says trading Gallagher or Ellwanger is a minor overpay with Diaw or Mercedes a pretty even swap for Weaver. Trade 3 - Twins trade with Giants Twins get - Luis Arraez Giants get - Ryan Gallagher or James Ellwanger. I stole this idea from the article today about trading for an OF or 2B that can help us against left-handed pitching. I think he's right that Lane Thomas also would be a good choice. I like Arraez more since he can play 2B or 1B, and I think Royce Lewis is still another season away from regaining his form after the injuries. Both Arraez and Thomas hit left-handed pitching well. If we go after Lane Thomas instead, I would trade someone like Yasser Mercedes, not Gallagher or Ellwanger. So there it is. If the Twins make these trades you give up Ryan Jeffers and basically three top 20 prospects, one top 10-12 OF (or top 5 if it's Emma), a 13-20 guy, and a 20-30 guy. We get back a controllable #3 or #4 starter, a controllable good but not elite left-handed reliever, a good but not elite right-handed reliever that we have in 2026 and 2027, and a bat that helps us against left-handed pitching. I think all of these moves are worth the cost as I projected and all would help this year's team. All but the last also help the 2027 team have a better chance of getting to that 85-90 win level. What do you think? What trades would you like to see made overall at the deadline as an overall strategy?

I think the concept that we should trade for right-handed bat is a good one and Lane Thomas is not a bad idea as a 4th outfielder/platoon mate for Larnach. Gleybor Torres leaves me cold, Taylor Ward is decent but expensive for what he brings, and Christian Walker, Lars Nootbar (love that name), and Michael Massey can't hit left-handed pitching very well. It would be fun to have a guy named Lars Nootbar playing in Minnesota though. I mean, where else should he play? I think if don't trade for an outfielder like Thomas, the idea of trading for a 1B or 2B makes a lot of sense to me. I watched Royce Lewis run home with the lead run yesterday and one thing is pretty damn clear, he is not fully recovered from his knee surgeries. He runs like a 40-year-old man carrying a refrigerator uphill. I've had a torn ACL and I will tell you that it takes long as two years or even more to get back to where ever it is you're going to get to and that is nowhere near as good as where you started. It also messes with your balance for a while and doesn't give you a lot of confidence in planting your legs, all of which might help explain how much trouble he's having at the plate. Football players can come back faster because it's a different type of movement. All of this means to me that having three guys that can play 1B and 2B that you can move around would be a great thing to have and I think improve the team against left-handers if you got the right one. I've looked and frankly though there's only two possibilities, our old friend Luis Arraez and Anthony Volpe. Arraez is actually hitting 313/.336/.443 (.779) against lefties this year which is almost as good as his OPS against right-handers (about 815). He ain't cheap and he's probably gone after this year but he would help us in the short term. I would be up for if we can get him for a top 20 – 30 prospect type. Volpe is interesting in that is really not hitting great against anybody with a .657 OPS against lefties and a .666 OPS against righties but he is a good fielder and we can have a much improved defense with him at second and Clemens at first. He also gives us another shortstop if Kriedler's bat completely falls off the table, which looks like might be happening. Once again, depends on the cost. Maybe we can get him for a 15 – 30 prospect or thrown in as an addition in the trade to the Yankees of Jeffers for one other high-end pitching prospects. If we can, he might be worth it. Other than that, though, the pickings are pretty slim. So I like the concept but it's hard to find anyone that really fits other than Lane Thomas or maybe Luis Arraez. All comes down to cost and this is an additional move, it does not stop the necessary move for pitching. My fantasy is we trade Jeffers and Roden or one of our AAA OFs other than Jenkins to Seattle for Emerson Hancock and Jose Ferrer or Gabe Speier. We get a mid rotation starter and a 7th or 8th inning reliever, they get a starting catcher to help for the rest of this season with Raleigh injured and really not performing well at all (.573 OPS), plus a fully controllable prospect with upside like Emma, GG, or Mendez. Both have a chance to win their division or make the playoffs as a wildcard this year and both teams get immediate help and guys they can keep for a while. I would then add to that a trade of a 15-30 prospect for Luke Weaver and a similar prospect for Luis Arraez.

Good way to look at it. I’m all for creating prospects for controllable pitching like Hancock. Otherwise, keep them and sort them out over the next 1.5 years until the real contention window opens.

Jeffers, Larnach and Wallner for Hancock? I would make that trade this afternoon if I thought it was available. By the way, BTV rates that an even trade, in part because they see Wallner as having a value of 0.

I like the idea of trading for Hancock. Do you think that Emma and Jeffers would be enough to get him? Seems like a reasonably fair trade if not a bit of an overpay by the Twins. We get a mid-rotation starter controllable through 2030, they get quality offensive catcher for the rest of this year and a high upside outfielder who can help them hopefully starting next year. Baseball Trade Values says that's an overpay by the Twins, but it would be a pretty even trade if the Mariners added in a relief pitcher like Jose Ferrer or Gabe Spier. I'm not sure I trust BTV because it's too focused on excess value which necessarily devalues rental players from their true market value for a contending team looking to get over the top but I do like the idea of trading Jeffers and Emma for Hancock, especially if we can also get Ferrer.

Thanks for this article. I agree that the Twins' current system could support a trade but to me the only trade that makes sense is one for a controllable piece(s), preferably at least one pitcher. We certainly don't have enough prospect depth to deal prospects for a rental pitcher and besides, the current Twins team isn't good enough and doesn't have a high enough enough ceiling to make that kind of a trade make any sense. I would like to see if a package highlighted by one of our AAA OFs could generate a controllable pitcher in return. The three prospects I would consider trading are ERod (#4), Gabriel Gonzalez (#10), and Henry Mendez (#12) and I would also consider trading Alan Roden. The pitchers I would target who are at least rumored to be potentially available are Reid Detmers, Jose Soriano, Emerson Hancock, and George Kirby. There very well may be others but it has to be someone established as a mid rotation guy who has at least 2.5 controllable years before I would be interested in trading one of the three prospects. I would also kick the the tires on what kind of prospect package it would take to pry away CJ Abrams, Jeremy Pena, or Zach Neto to play short, or even a catcher like Shea Langeliers or Audley Rutschman (probably too much). Another thought would be to try to trade for a youngish catcher like Langeliers or Rutschman, and then trade Jeffers and Caratini to backfill the system for the prospects traded. A package for a Langeliers or Rutschman could include Eduardo Tait now that we drafted Lackey. First choice would be a pitching trade, maybe a trade with the Angels where we get either Detmers or Soriano plus a reliever like Sam Bachmann or Ryan Zeferjahn in return for package headlined by one of three outfielders, plus another guy in the 10 to 20 range like Ryan Gallagher or John Klein, plus a Kyle DeBarge, Ben Ross, or Kala'i Rosario type. We get a middle of the rotation controllable starting pitcher with 2.5 years of control and an early arbitration reliever, they get an outfielder with star potential, a pitcher with upside, and a player that could potentially be the second baseman or a utility infielder. We could then add in another A or A+ ball guy to balance the trade scales. Those names may be totally unrealistic but hopefully the concept makes sense.

Matthews should go into the bullpen. I've think we've seen enough to know both that he is not ready for a full-time rotation spot and that he has a good enough arsenal to compete at the MLB level in the bullpen. He looks more and more like the classic failed starter turned reliever type. Also, these moves don't have to be permanent. If he goes to the bullpen and improves his command, he can always come back to the rotation. He's only just turned 26. I don't think we have to wait until next year to do this. One of my fantasies is that we trade a quality prospect a few years out for a quality rental starter like Robbie Ray or Kevin Gausman, and then move Matthews to the bullpen in a late inning role. Essentially, try to till two birds with one stone. My real fantasy is that we trade said prospect for Freddy Peralta, but I know that's not happening. The price tag on him will be too high to be justified for team like this one.

I hear that and I agree that trading him is the more likely approach. Having said that, I think the reason Jeffers might sign the QO would be to get the one season at $23 million and stay at a place he knows and were they know him as compared to taking his chances in free agency when his most likely value that I've seen predicted on a FA contract is roughly 4 years/$60-$70M. I think you could make a good economic argument that taking one year at $23M followed by a FA contract of three years/$50-55M is a better deal because of the time value of money. In addition, if the new CBA has a salary floor of some kind in return for some kind of soft salary cap (very unlikely the owners can get a hard cap), his value might increase to the Twins so they can hit the floor and decrease to high spending teams. This would all assume he wants to stay, which I don't know one way or the other, and that he's willing to accept the risk that an injury in 2027 makes that later FA contract either smaller or nonexistent. Much as I would like to keep him on the team, I agree that unless you have a pretty good inkling that you can either sign him later or get him to accept a Q0, the right move is to trade him at the deadline. Where I differ from some here is I don't think you just trade him for whatever you can get; you trade him if you can get a combination of someone that can help you in the bullpen this year plus a quality prospect or two. If you can't get that, it may make more sense to trade Caratini for a quality relief pitcher in his 30s, if that's available, and roll the dice on trying to keep Jeffers for next year. You take that risk knowing that you have Jackson to be the number two catcher behind one of those two guys in 2027 and that Jackson could potentially be the number one catcher if he really can hit like he has the last roughly year and 1/2. Jackson certainly has the defensive chops for the position, the issue has always been whether he can hit There's lots of moving parts here and it all depends on something we don't know; what can we get for Jeffers or Caratini if we trade them. I think each of us could make a good, well informed choice if we knew the answer to that question.

Got to go with you on this one. Keeping a guy like Jenkins down for fear of losing a year of control because the entire next season is lost due to a work stoppage seems like prioritizing the risk of loss over the possibility of gain to an extreme. I also think the chances of losing all of the 2027 season is pretty remote. I think it's much more likely that the parties reach a deal on a timeframe that shortens spring training and/or we may lose a few games. The economics of losing an entire season so that the owners can try to impose a hard salary cap just doesn't make much economic sense to me, even from the owners perspective. I'm hoping to see Jenkins on the big club shortly after the trade deadline. I did see a comment from someone else that if we wait until August 14 he keeps his rookie status for 2027. That means that if he is rookie of the year in 2027 we get the extra draft choice. Again, that seems like stretching for an unlikely result but I could see waiting until mid August. I'm hoping he is up and playing by then, either because we trade Larnach or Roden, demote Roden or Martin, or the most likely result, someone gets injured

I have to admit I may have been wrong on Adams. I'm one of the guys writing here that he should back to AAA for frankly any new shiny object that we pick up. I don't get it, but he's been very effective the last month or so. That's great to see because we need it.

Not a bad way to look at this. Trade Caratini, keep Jeffers, hope he signs a QO in the offseason, and go with Jeffers and Jackson next year. Make a low wattage deal with Jackson to keep him around as the #2 catcher. The big question is what do you do if Jeffers turns down the QO. The draft choice is nice but we're left with Jackson, assuming he will re-sign with the Twins, and ... Ricardo Olivar? Noah Cardenas? Jackson looks great right now but I see him more as a bat volatile #2 C guy. I doubt he can hit enough if playing 65% of the time to be a #1. But hey, the man is hitting .322/.355/.441 (.796) in a very SSS this year and .220/.290/.473 (.763) last year, much better in the second half after changing his swing, so I could be totally wrong on him. Trading Caratini is at least another option to think about.

That's a pretty good way to put things with ERod. He could be a real MLB asset if he ever gets there. I do wonder a little bit about his passive approach translating to the MLB level where pitchers have better control, though. I would have loved to see him up this year to see but it looks like another year of development for him will pass. He's still very young so there is time. All of this is why I would be dangling him as part of a package to get a Reid Detmers, Jose Soriano, George Kirby, CJ Abrams, Antony Volpe, Trevor Rogers type guy. We have a surplus of OFs with potential. Let's cash one in for a youngish long term asset, particularly if that asset is a pitcher or middle IF. I'd rather trade Roden or Fedko but they aren't going to get us much, maybe a decent but not great mid 30s relief pitcher (think Pierce Johnson or Kirby Yates, if that). I want more so I'm willing to trade ERod, GG, or Mendez to get a young, controllable #3 starter type or a controllable middle IF bat with upside.

I frankly wonder a little about ERod. He's shown flashes but no real consistency, in part because he is always injured. He could be a star, he could be a bust, he could be anywhere in between. I don't think we know a lot more about where he'll fall on that continuum now than we did a year or two ago. IF we're trying to make a trade for higher end MLB talent with remaining control, ERod is the guy I would be dangling as the centerpiece of a prospect trade.

Sorry, we're going to have just agree to disagree. I think you overstate how interested fans are in seeing minor league guys come up. You and I might be interested in that but I think most fans only care about seeing a wining team and guys they know. Bringing up minor leaguers doesn't get you a winning team most of the time, you usually get the opposite, and it certainly doesn't get you guys most fans know. Oh well, reasonable minds can differ and apparently do in this case.

Any chance of getting someone good higher than A+ ball? I'm sure these guys are good players and someday might even make good MLB players. That someday looks like a ways off for each of them. Maybe I'm just getting old and frustrated, but this looks like more playing for the future that never comes. Let's trade Jeffers for some guys that can come and help us in the bullpen this year or at least next year.

Really? Come on now, think it through. Tom's biggest business problem is trying to turn around a negative perception in the market about whether the Twins are willing to try to win or if this is all about just making as much money as possible. Pohlad went out of his way to go on record saying a few weeks ago that he wants to win and compete for championships. He got some national publicity for saying that and it was faithfully reprinted in the local press. If he then turns around a few weeks later and trades the team's best player for a bunch of prospects that no one other than us baseball nerds had ever heard of, the vast majority of fans will think that what he said before was just empty words. "He's just another Pohlad. All he cares about is making the most money. He doesn't care about the team, he doesn't care about us fans, he doesn't care about putting a winning product on the field. Why should I care about this team if it doesn't care about me. " Tom has created expectations that he needs to fulfill. He doesn't have to do it by trading for Sonny Gray at the deadline and paying him $25 million, but he can't kill the team's image by backtracking from what he said and trading away the best guy on the team. And by the way, yes there will be lost ticket sales for the rest of this year. Think bigger than just selling a few tickets and a few beers this season. The Twins biggest business problem is the rightfully formed image that ownership doesn't care about the team, it only cares about money. Tom is trying to turn that perception around. To do that, he needs to show that he is trying to put the best product on the field even if it costs him more money and even if it may make more baseball sense to trade good players right now for a future team. In other words, he needs to show that he is trying to WIN. People cut slack for an owner who shows he is trying to win. He can say, "hey, new Sherriff in town. Instead of trading good players away and playing for a future that may never come, we're trying to win NOW." Fans will cut some slack to a guy who is trying his hardest to put the best product he can on the field. Tom needs to show that he is that guy to have any chance of turning a crappy situation around. Fans will cut no slack for team owner who is trying to maximize profit or cut his financial losses. Now let's switch to a trade in the off-season. In the offseason the Twins can make Ryan an offer and play the PR game that they offered as good a deal as anyone or the biggest deal in Twins history and he decided to leave anyway. Nothing they could do. And who knows, maybe he'll actually take your offer. You also have Lopez next year so you a have a replacement. Huge business difference from trading him at the deadline for prospects this year. Look, if this was just a baseball decision I can see the argument for trading Ryan now although as you know, I'm not convinced we can't get as good a deal in the off-season as we can now. Neither one of us knows the answer to that question because we don't know what's being offered. I do agree trading Jeffers now is the only thing that makes any sense from a baseball perspective and that may be true for trading Ryan depending on the offers out there that you and I will never see. Still, from a business perspective it's much better to hold Ryan to the end of this year and hope the team actually at least sort of contends for a playoff spot. If they don't, it's not ownership's fault; we kept our best players and tried to get new ones but we just didn't have enough. If they trade Ryan, Jeffers, Larnach, Bell, etc. away and the team tanks, then it is ownership's fault. "The team was good enough to contend but the owners traded anybody making money to save themselves a few bucks in 2026 and get cheaper players." Pohlad can get away with trading Jeffers because he's a pending free agent. He can't get away with trading Ryan away now and still saying he's trying to win with a straight face. He has a better chance of pulling that off in the offseason. The baseball bona fides don't matter as much as the business strategy does at this point.

Agree Falvey was making the decisions. Most of the deal were good moves. There is one deal I would redo; the Varland. I actually think highly of Rojas and think he could be a great starter or late inning guy down the road. Still, I Would rather have Varland at the back of the Twins' bullpen for the next 3.5 years since he's not going to hit free agency until 2031. I think we basically "won" almost all of the other trades. We definitely won Jax for Bradley, Bader for Mendez and Villoria, Castro for Gallagher, and Coulombe for Horn. Duran for Abel and Tait is yet to be seen but the return looks strong. Frankly, if Mick Abel is a #3 starter or better next year, we win and still have Tait for later gravy. Stewart for Outman was a lose-lose since Stewart immediately got hurt and Outman well, he kind of stinks. I also approve of them dumping most of Correa's salary, especially since he's missed this entire season with an injury.

Thanks for that update. Wow, he has been hurt a lot.

That's easy. Jenkins and Buxton, absolutely not. Emma, absolutely available in the right deal. Guy can't stay healthy and his passive approach may not work in the Bigs. Besides, he is out of options although he probably will get 4th option because he's been injured most of this season. Buxton is the present, Jenkins is the future, Emma is a big question mark. He seems to have real talent but he may or may not ever be either good enough or healthy enough to start every day at the MLB level, much less be a star. To me, he is exactly the kind of guy we should be dangling as a headliner in a package to get a proven MLB starting pitcher with 2+ years of control left. For the right deal, Emma goes.

I understand the argument for trading Ryan but I do question one of your key assumptions. Everyone seems to assume we will get a "better" return at this year's trade deadline then in the coming off-season. I understand that there is a risk of injury and that's a real concern. Beyond that, I've never really seen any kind of real analysis about why the return will be "better" now other than the thought that well, a contending team gets two playoff runs rather than one. That makes some sense but hardly seems definitive. On the contrary side, by definition there is a smaller pool of teams willing to trade for right now as that will be limited to those who feel like they are truly in contention and need to pay a big price for starting pitching to contend in the playoffs. Also, it certainly seems like the return at the deadline is always prospects. That makes sense since any team will hold on to contributing major players so as not to create a roster hole by training to fill a different hole. It seems like in the off-season, one sees a lot more MLB player for MLB player kind of trades, probably because teams think they have minor leaguers that can backfill a hole they create or can trade at that seasons deadline to fill the hole if the prospect doesn't work out. It makes more sense to me to trade Ryan for proven talent than for prospects if you can do that, and it seems much more likely that you can do that in the off-season than at the deadline. Look, I think you gotta fish or cut bait on Ryan no later than this off-season. If you can't sign him before spring training ends next year, you have to go trade him. This team isn't close enough this year nor is it likely to be next year that you keep Ryan because this is going to be the "magical year" that we get to the World Series if only we keep Joe. Having said that, I just don't think that the evidence is very strong to support the argument that we will get "more" for him now other than basic logic that a team should be willing to give more to have the extra playoff run with him. I just haven't seen anything that convinces me that that's true, particularly when factoring in the facts that you can get proven MLB talent for a guy like Ryan in the off-season but not now, and that there are more teams that could be interested then as compared to now. Relief pitchers? Probably worth more now which is why we see more trades of relief pitchers now. A proven front line starter? I just don't think it's the same. Of course, all of this is completely academic because Tom Pohlad isn't going to trade Ryan at the deadline if he has any business acumen unless he has a complete change of heart. Everything he has said to date is the opposite and even he has to know trading Ryan would kill the team and kill the fan base. I think there's a very little chance Ryan gets traded at this year's deadline for business reasons, whether or not it makes sense for baseball reasons..

Look, the guy's not a great centerfielder at this point in his career. Frankly, he's barely competent in centerfield, if that. Still, it's more than a little early to make grand pronouncements about his ability to play in centerfield or the outfield at all. He's played all of what, 15-20 games in the outfield total and maybe 8-10 or so in centerfield? I know we all like to judge and then set our opinions in stone never to be reviewed, able to haughtily dismiss anyone who has the temerity to question those opinions formed oh so long ago. I get it, it beats actually having to think, but all of this seems like a little early. I think we need to take a deep breath and give him the rest of the season to get his feet wet as a full-time outfielder, and then give the team the chance to really work with him next year in spring training on things like his drop step, feeling where the wall is, knowing when to throw home or to third base and when to concede the run, all those things that come with real experience. Then we we can judge his defense in the outfield. You know, about next May, not now. Until then, this is what development looks like. For all of you that want to call up prospects from AAA, including me, get ready for some ugly moments at the plate or in the field. There will be some. With all of them. Oh, and by the way, over the last 100 plus PAs, Luke is hitting .303/.413/.419 (.832), with 16 SOs and 13 BBs (almost a 1:1 ratio). He has actually been better than that over his last roughly 50 plate appearances. That guy starts on my team and needs a place to play. Second base clearly wasn't it so let's find him one in the outfield. But you're right, he kind of sucks out there right now. Hope it gets better.

There is an old very true saying that before you can decide what to do now to impact the future, you have to know where you are now in space and time. I think that before the Twins can decide whether to buy or sell at the deadline, or to do both in some measure, you have to have a sober, clearheaded view of what talent we have now and how we think it will perform in 2027 and 2028. I think we have a pretty good consensus on the 2026 roster. The ceiling is roughly 85 wins, a Wild Car berth or Division title if everyone else falters, maybe win one playoff round, and then a pretty quick exit. The floor is we spiral downward either now or in August and wind up at 72 – 75 wins, with more questions than answers going forward. The most likely result is somewhere in between those two. So the big question is where are we likely to be in '27 and '28 if we do little or nothing at the Trade Deadline, or do just a couple low wattage trades for relief pitchers who aren't going to be with us past this year. I think that's where many of us disagree and why we have such divergent thoughts for this year's Trade Deadline. I thought I would try to get at that answer by dividing our current talent at the MLB and AAA level into 7 categories - (1) guys who are now stars and should continue to be stars through either '27 or '28, (2) average or above average MLB starters through '28, (3) guys who have a 50% chance or more of being at least above average MLB starters in 2027 or by 2028, (4) guys and could be contributing roster players in 2027 and/or 2028 but probably not as starters, rotation pieces, or in the top five of the bullpen, or who need to change position to be a contributing guy, (5) guys who are now ready to make MLB debuts, have small sample sizes at the MLB level, or will be ready by 2027 or 2028 and look like they deserve an extended run at the MLB level with a 50% or better chance of success, (6) guys on the AA or AAA level who are wildcards, could be anywhere from stars to failures but deserve a shot in the next 2.5 years, and (7) guys who are either really young or below AA and who look like future MLB starters likely more than two years away but could surprise. With categories (5) - (7), I think it's a safe assumption that none will be immediate stars but the guys I've tried to list are those I think have at least an outside shot at being average or better MLB starters in' 27 or' 28. In each case, I note the position for all players, which I think is important for the pitchers as well as the hitters. For example, I think Bailey Ober will be an average or better #4 starter, but he isn't an average or better #3 or higher MLB starter. I also eliminated older players who I think just won't be around next year or they year after or, if they are, would always be in imminent danger of being replaced like Taylor Rogers and Tommy Nance. I didn't go below the AA level because below that is a complete crapshoot although I did include Tait because I think he is more than a crapshoot. I did not include any of this year's draftees for that same reason. I think you have to start here before you can make the buy or sell decision. A sober reflection of what you currently have helps you decide whether you need to blow it up, trade the veterans for the best prospects you can get and play for 2029 later, whether there's a real chance to compete in 27 and 2028 if you get the right prospects or even just stand relatively pat, or whether you're somewhere in between. Here's my thinking: (1) Current Stars Likely to Remain Stars through 2027 and/or 2028 - Byron Buxton (CF, may be moving to LF by 2028) , Pablo Lopez (currently only 2027 before contract expires, #1/#2 Starter), Joe Ryan (same, #2 Starter). That's it. The shortness of this list may be a big part of the problem. (2) Average or Better MLB Starters - Luke Keaschall (RF/LF), Brooks Lee (3B), Kody Clemens (2B), Trevor Laranch (LHOF/DH, but only in a platoon), Victor Caratini ('27 only), Taj Bradley (#3 or maybe even #2 starter), Bailey Ober (#4/#5 starter), Yolendrys Gomez (late inning reliever), Andrew Morris (late inning reliever), Cole Sands (middle reliever). (3) Players With a 50% or Better Chance to be Average or Better MLB Starters, but no sure thing - Royce Lewis (1B), Mick Abel (#4/#5 starter), Connor Prielipp (#4 or better starter). (4) Contributing Roster Players but Not Starters - Ryan Kreidler (UTL IF), Austin Martin (4th OF), Zebby Martin (as a RP could move up a category, but not as a starting pitcher), Alex Jackson (2nd C but not a starter). (5) Players With Potential That Deserve a Shot at with 50% chance or Better of Success - Walker Jenkins (OF), Kaelen Culpepper (SS/3B/2B), Kendry Rojas (RP/SP), Mike Paredes (RP), Henry Mendez (OF, not until '28), Marek Houston (SS, not until '28). (6) Guys Who Deserve a Shot But Are Complete Wildcards - Emmanuel Rodriguez (OF, wildcard mostly due to age and injury concerns), Alan Roden (OF), Gabriel Gonzalez (OF, wildcard because of his age), CJ Culpepper (RP), Travis Adams (RP), Kody Funderburk (RP), Marco Raya (RP), John Klein (RP), Ryan Gallagher (RP), Woo Suk Go (RP), Ben Ross (SS/UTL), Ricardo Olivar (2nd C), Kalai'i Rosario (OF). (7) Players With Real Potential More Than 2 Years Away Who Could Surprise- Riley Quick (SP/RP), Kadim Diaw (C/OF, age), Brandon Winknour (OF), Eduardo Tate (C). So I look at that and it causes me to look at 2027 and 2028 with cautious but tempered optimism. I think this is a classic Twins situation; we have about two thirds of a competitive MLB team. We have one star in the field and two in the starting rotation. We have two more starting pitchers who are quality MLB starters lower in the rotation. We have average or better MLB starters at 2B, 3B, and the OF corners, plus at Catcher but only for one more season. We have two, maybe three good relief pitchers, and everybody else is a wildcard. We have a strong utility infielder but right now he has to be the starting SS, and it looks like we might have a quality fourth OF. It looks like we may have reinforcements at SS and in the OF on the way. We have some rotation depth but not a lot, and we don't have a C with a short timeline. The bullpen is wide open, and a complete crapshoot. If we have a surplus from which to trade prospects it is clearly in the OF and maybe at Shortstop. All of this leads me to think that we buy and sell at the deadline. We sell Jeffers, much as I would like to keep him, because his contract is going to be up and we should be able to get potentially quality, near MLB ready relief or starting pitching prospects for him. We trade Larnach but only if we can get a young, controllable relief pitcher that we think can be in the top five or six in the bullpen by 2027 at the latest. We hold onto Ryan unless we get a huge haul and we shop Bell but is unlikely we can get much for him so he probably stays. The one blockbuster move I would consider is trading some guys in categories 5 – 7 other than Jenkins in a package for a controllable established starting pitcher hopefully plus a relief pitcher, like Reid Demers or José Soriano plus Sam Bachman of the Angels. I'm sure there's others to target. I think there's more here than justifies a complete tear down and rebuild but I don't think we can just stand pat. Thanks if anybody waded through this overly long analysis. What do you guys think?