AlwaysinModeration

Remind me again why Rodney pitched on Wednesday up 11-6?

The AJ Pierzynski trade keeps on giving (Nathan/Bonser/Liriano --> Escobar --> Duran/Maciel. Sad to see Escobar go, he's been a real spark plug for this team. However, I love this move, because: 1)Sano is coming back to man third 2)Escobar is playing above is head 3)They targeted high upside guys...Duran could be great, Maciel could be the third Brazilian player 4)Traded to NL, don't need to worry about it biting the team And I don't think we have to assume this means punt on the season. While Escobar brought fire to this team...remember that they have gone 13-5 in their past 18, and last year they got hot after Kintzler was traded. I give this trade an A.

I don't know what the return is, true. It's possible they will offer some sort of crazy return that would an offer they couldn't refuse. However, I doubt it. And I wouldn't like it, because: 1)It would signal punting on the season, and I think they have a (small but real) chance to keep this hot streak going and make the playoffs. 2)It would be selling a player they have invested a decade in who is finally reaching his potential. It would hurt to see him continue this year of excellence elsewhere. 3)Maybe we aren't seeing the best that Gibson can be. He appears really confident right now, and is fun to watch. 4)The idea of Gibson succeeding for NY makes my skin crawl. It's already painfully watching Hicks to well in the Bronx. 5)I expect the Twins to be in the playoff hunt next year (and haven't ruled out this year, as noted). The idea of Gibson extending the Yankee dominance over Twins in the postseason after the Twins is one of the worst thoughts I can conjure. So, I get that it's not totally rational, but I'd be really opposed, even if the return was big.

Great post. Great analogy with Arrieta. I always think of Cliff Lee, who got sent down to the minors in his late 20s.

There are so many things wrong with the idea of trading Gibson to the Yankees right now, I don’t know where to begin.

I don’t get why a gamethread after a fantastic victory has turned into a lengthy trade / quality debate over Kyle Gibson. But it has, so I will say this: I would hate for the Twins to trade Gibson, and think it would be a terrible move for the organization, regardless of where they are, what they need, and what the return is. The Twins have weathered a lot of rough history with Gibson, and they are now reaping the rewards of that perserverence. Let’s just enjoy the great performance by Gibson - four straight, and only five under .500.

13-5 over their last 18 games. Come on, boys, let’s keep it rolling.

Great to see Graterol cracking top 100 lists. Now, perusing the list, which of those players are going to become Twins in the next week?

I'm setting the over/under on balls Mauer bounces off of the Green Monster during this four-game series at 2.5. Place your bets, all bets here!

There is a great article on The Athletic about the Pitching Ninja, Rob Friedman. He’s just a random guy who started cataloging all of these nasty pitches and doing these overlays. Now a bunch of major leaguers follow him and send him suggestions. Also tracks pitching grips. Cool to see Berrios featured on that. He was in total control tonight.

Game thread in fine form tonight. Glass half full (of Labatt's): Twins last 15: 10-5, gained 3.5 on Cleveland. Do that four more times, and the Twins are 12 games over .500 and 5.5 games up on Cleveland, with 4 games to play.

Glass half full: Twins last 14 games: 9-5, picked up 2.5 games. If they did that four times in a row, they would be 7 games over .500 and a half a game up on Cleveland with 9 games to play.

Playoff odds down to 0.7%. Escobar has to catch that pop-up.

I looked up the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds report. Twins chances of making the playoffs: 1.5%. I don’t know, that seems low to me. Not because they won 9 of 11 coming in, although that was nice. But more because the team severely underperformed in the first half. I expect better performances in the second half from Lynn, Odorizzi, Morrison, Polanco (obviously), Mauer, Dozier, Sano and Buxton. And maybe catcher, after they trade for Realmuto

Comment on Tyler Jay: Coulda had Benintendi. At the time of the draft, it was known that Benintendi was rocketing up the draft boards and that the Red Sox, who I believe drafted immediately after the Twins, really wanted him. Would have nice instead of drafting a first round reliever....

Thanks for this write up Steve. Could I request that Buxton and Sano lines be added to the summary numbers section?

markos, great write up. Where were you sitting? I was in section 135. It was great to see Kiriloff get the two line drive hits, and agree that throw looked strong, if offline. The Hunter Green appearance was remarkable. And by remarkable, I mean that he hit 102 on almost every pitch, and it was a 102mph that was turned around for a homer. The Pitch was straight as an arrow, and if minors guys can get around on it, that’s likely trouble. He also looked max effort (as opposed to Brusdar who has an easy motion for his triple digits, from what I’ve seen), and it seemed pretty easy to tell when a fastball was coming, vs an offspeed pitch, it seemed like he wasn’t making as violent of a motion. To me, it looks like TJ waiting to happen.... I am liking the Royce Lewis (and Enlow combo pack) even more.

This is a great thread. Very interesting discussion. The title should probably be revised from “what would it take to get Realmuto” to “would it be wise for the Twins to trade for Realmuto, and if so, what would it take?” To me, it would be worth going after this trade, because he could provide considerable added value for a position of weakness for 2 years and 2 months. Many have argued that there isn’t a viable window now or in 19 / 20. I strongly disagree. I think there is a 15-20% chance of winning the division this year, which is bolstered a decent amount by adding Realmuto. I think there is easily a 50% chance of making the postseason in 19, and even greater in 20. Getting an above average catcher helps those odds. Are Buxton and Sano going to contribute to the team’s wins this year, next year, or in 20? No one knows the answer to this. However, I will point out that late in the year last year, there were many severe doubters of Kyle Gibson, and calls for him basically to be cut (yarnivek led this charge, if I recall correctly). I argued that he was going to provide value for the team going forward as a starter; they would need him in the rotation, and he showed signs of upside. Look how that has turned out so far. This is the bottom of the valley for Buxton and Sano, but remember that they are both young, both were top prospects, and both still have massive upside, if even a bit tempered. They are in the minors working on improving on the weaknesses that have been exposed in the majors. I think they will both be back and will both provide real value for the team, likely as soon as this year. Now, as for what it would take to get Realmuto, I argued that a case could be made for a package that avoided Lewis, Romero and likely Brusdar. Some argue that won’t be enough. That’s possible. The only way we will really know is if the FO actually trades for him, and we see what the return is. We do know the Marlins asked for Robles or Soto from the Nats, and the asking price is high. But I still contend that a big package of multiple top 100s (Kiriloff, Gonsalves, Baddoo +) could be enough. Maybe not, but maybe. Anyway, that is the path I would choose...go after Realmuto for a package that does not include the absolute elites from the Twins’ system. From what I have seen of this Front Office, I think they would be inclined to follow that path—going after an elite player with multiple years of control. Certainly way more likely than Terry Ryan to pull the trigger on such a deal!

I don’t agree. Sometimes you have to take a leap. Your argument equates to never making a trade for an impact player.

Coming back to this thread, which seems to go down rabbit holes, what would it take to get Realmuto? That question means, what is the minimum it would take to get Realmuto. So I think the question is what the Twins can avoid giving up in order to get him. Lewis: Can the Twins offer a package that doesn’t include Lewis? Yes, I think they can. Romero: Can they offer a package that doesn’t include Romero? Ditto. The next best bets are Kiriloff, Brusdar, and Gonsalves, who have all made top 100 lists and/or have nice helium. Baddoo is probably the fourth most appealing, followed by Rooker and Larnach. But not really top 100 types (or not yet, for Larnach.) I don’t think the Twins would need to include all three of Kiriloff, Brusdar and Gonsalves, but I do think they would need to include at least three of the six in that “not Lewis or Romero” list. If I were in the Twins FO I would try to exclude Brusdar from that group. Offer them their pick of three from this five: Kiriloff, Gonsalves, Rooker, Larnach (as player to be named) and Baddoo. Then say you will throw in another top 20 (maybe someone like Enlow or Wade). So my theory is the minimum they would need to offer to get Realmuto is a package that looks like this: Kiriloff, Gonsalves, Baddoo and Enlow. And I would make that trade.

I think it is safe to say the Twins will not be trading for Chris Archer.

Is Astudillo Big Sexy 2.0?

Romero starting tomorrow is the best news of the day. By the way, who took the “over” on runs scored in the Berrios-Archer matchup?

Yes, in a “Rip Van Winkle” sort of way.

Keep the bats going. Let’s go, guys, knock out a series win today, set the team up for a sweep.