AlwaysinModeration

That was a bullet. Looks like his elbow is recovered.

While it is surprising to see Vegas put the Twins at 68.5, as it appears on the surface the team has a good amount of upward trajectory, the full equation includes the other teams. If Vegas see the other teams as significantly better, that might make the wins harder to come by for the Twins.

Very interesting umpire comments. I have had the privilege of umpiring a bunch of little league games the past couple of years, and what seems like a fairly straightforward job--especially for the casual fan--turns into a much more difficult proposition. Suddenly, there a are a lot more gray areas. There are 3-0 counts that make you want to expand the strike zone for the kid pitching who can't stop walking kids. Then there are the 0-2 counts that you want to squeeze the zone for the totally overmatched kid. Then there are the batters who are on top of the plate and the catchers who make audible sounds when they disagree with your call. And all of the sides if the zone suddenly have a lot more fuzzy spots that are hard to be consistent. And then there is when your son is batting, or worse, pitching, and you try to be sure to be objective...and usually give him a tougher zone than the rest of the kids. Rarely has pitch framing come into play, although the point about catching it well can have an impact. There are certainly some of the kids who will hold the pitches they think are strikes and even a bit of pulling pitches back into the zone a bit, but neither of those influence much for me. Overall, it totally changes your perspective. Not so easy. Fun, though. (Except for when you are behind the kid who doesn't get a glove on more than half of the pitches.)

That's an impressive amount of work Parker, nice piece. I wonder if the team will give Pinto the silent treatment the first time he throws a runner out this year.

They can't field ten players. But I like seeing Hicks there.

That's one helluva system. Add in Wander Javier and Brady Aiken, and they will be all set.

Do the five mentioned definitely have spots locked down? How many spots are left, and who is the competition for Graham for those spots? I would like to see Graham do well and win a spot, but I don't get a sense of his chances here.

Shane--I read your linked article, and I'll raise you--I have a copy of The Book on my shelf! I have long thought Mauer should lead off.

The reason I listed the base runners plated is because RBI as a stat lacks context. Some were saying Torii just got more RBIs because he had more opportunities. The stats I provided added some context to that, and they are fairly intuitive. I haven't done more to figure out how many of the runners were RISP, but we could do that. As for fast runners versus slow runners, who knows.

Mauer: 52/337 for a 15% clip Dozier: 52/402 for a 13% rate Arcia: 40/268 for a 15% rate

Torii came up to bat last year with 370 base runners, and scored 69 of them for a 19% clip. Plouffe came up to bat with 391 base runners, and plated 69 of them for an 18% clip.

Funny stuff, folks. What are Roger Clemens kids all named?

Great article. Loved the stories. It made me start looking through bbref for details of my one game at the Met. My recollections are as vague as JB_Iowas, except I remember sitting in LF, and seeing Billy Martin kicking dirt at second base before getting kicked out of the game. I always thought he was coaching the Twins at the time, but now I see I was wrong, since he coached them in 1969 before I was born. It must have been between 1980-1982, when I was between 6 and 8. Bbref doesn't seem to have manager ejections listed though. It would be fun to pinpoint the exact game.

Great piece, thanks for posting it on TD. Good balanced analysis. Good point about how Ryan was generally very good at avoided trading away players who would become above average players. Also interesting insight on lack of Latinos. I wonder what Terry Ryan's take on PED users is. Was he less likely to keep or sign suspected users?

My guess is Buxton is #1

I agree with Doc--Berrios reminds me of Pedro. I think we should doubt JO at our own peril. He met all his goals last year. Wasn't his goal this year to break camp in the rotation? (Could you imagine that?!?)

I agree with Kwak. #8 Molitor as manager is the biggest question mark and really the subject with the biggest long-term impact on the team heading into spring training.

Well, I hope Kohl strikes out a few more guys this year.

I think that playing deep is one of the ways SS rank higher in fielding metrics. One of the reason's JJ Hardy always rated well in these metrics is how deep he played. Conversely, Jeter missed a lot of grounders because he always played so shallow ("pasta diving Jeter"). Hopefully Gordon will play deep in the hole and leverage that cannon.

I think Rosario is high at 78. 77 is probably more accurate. Maybe 76. I'd look at the AAA rotation, and count on at least 2-4 of the opening day AAA rotation getting MLB time. Assuming May or Milone gets #5, who will fill out that rotation? Meyer, May/Milone, Wheeler, O'Rourke(?), Duffey? Berrios? If Berrios makes the AAA rotation, his chance at the MLB roster at some point should be way higher. I'd also guess Wheeler has way more than 15% chance.

I like the premise of the article, but I would put my top five developments for 2014 slightly differently: 1)The emergence of Hughes: He improved his control dramatically, developed his cutter, and now the Twins have what looks like an ace for the next five years. 2)Departure of Gardy and Anderson, but not Bruno. The guys without new ideas are gone. (Actually the new idea "start infielders" in the outfield is hopefully gone.). Molitor appears open to new approaches (see defensive shifts) and Neil Allen brings in an outside perspective from an innovative organization. 3)Setbacks by Sano and Buxton. Lost years from the twin top-five prospects should moderate expectations. Still high hopes for stardom for both...but not quite a certainty. 4)The Terry Ryan return from cancer and continuation as the GM. Rob Antony was his interim replacement earlier this year. Neither appear innovative or anywhere near cutting edge. Most of the strengthening of the farm system had been good draft picks (Buxton, Stewart, Gordon), luck (Sano) or a combination (Berrios). Meyer and May are attributable to Ryan, but also cost the Twins years of CF question marks. Last year, he extended Suzuki when he was playing way over his career norms instead of trading him. Then he spent $10mm on the worst-fielding OF in the game for his age-40 season. 5)One last high draft pick. The poor 2014 play netted what will hopefully be the last top ten draft pick for years to come.

This is a great move. Here is what I commented on an entry in Justin Masterson in November: "Nice analysis, Parker. I wouldn't mind a Masterson signing. But my priority list for money spent on the Twins rotation this winter would look like this, with #1 way out in front: "1)Extend Hughes 2)Bring Liriano back 3)Sign Masterson" Honestly, I was thinking maybe we could hope for 1 and 3. Instead, we got 1 and a higher target for #2 (I think, although let's wait a couple years to see who is more valuable between Liriano or Santana). Thrilled. Kudos for Terry Ryan and Phil Hughes!

Jon Lester was a potential centerpiece from the Johan trade, as was Hughes. It would be nice if the Twins were ever even remotely a contender for one of the top free agents. Instead, they hand out small-to-medium contracts each year to good-to-mediocre players that add up to the cost of a marquee players. Nolasco-Pelfrey-Milone=$20MM (not to mention Hunter and Suzuki). Aim for mediocrity, and you have a high chance at success. Lester would cost $20MM+ per year. But he doesn't cost a draft pick, and he is someone the Twins have wanted in the past. Wouldn't it be nice if we could have some hope of being a mystery team in on Lester? Back to the premise of the article...there would be room in the rotation for an ace. There isn't as much room for another mediocre option.

After the inaugural season at Target field, the Twins brass made the fateful decision to remove the 14 black spruce trees from centerfield. When viewed in retrospect, this decision, it seems clear, has placed a curse on the franchise. Consider: The Twins won 58% of their games in the first season in which they called Target Field their home, including a whopping 65% of the games they played at home in the great outdoors, with a piney backdrop. Since felling the trees, the team has won 41% of their games over the past four years, and only 40% of the games at the treeless Target Field. If the Twins had won 53 home games in 2011 (like they did in 2010), they would have come in second in their division. 53 home wins in 2014 would put the Twins tied with Oakland for the Wild Card. 53 home wins in 2012 would have won them the AL Central Division. There is more to the #CurseOfTheTrees: After uprooting the trees in January, 2011, the impact was almost immediately felt: Michael Cuddyer developed problematic warts on his feet within 2 months, Joe Mauer was diagnosed with bilateral leg weakness by April, and the Twins biggest ever international signee, Japanese star Tsuyoshi Nishioka, broke his leg in his sixth game in MLB - the day before the Twins were to play their first game in Target field without the trees. Morneau couldn't get back on track from his 2010 concussion all year, (including needing neck surgery by June) and by the end of the 2011, top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson was going under the knife for Tommy John. More recently, the #CurseOfTheTrees has extended its limbs back down to the minor league system, causing it's two uber prospects to have largely lost seasons immediately after rising to the tops of the prospect lists; Sano undergoing Tommy John surgery (highly unusual for a position player) and Byron Buxton injuring and reinjuring his wrist before getting his season cut short in August from a head-on collision and concussion in his first game at Double A. The misery hasn't end with the Twins who stayed within the organization. By the end of 2014, former Twins regulars had gone on to great success away from the treeless expanses of Target Field these past four years: winning batting titles in 2013 and 2014, multiple gold gloves, a 2012 Cy Young award (and a Top 10 finish in 2013), and a 2012 postseason MVP trophy. The trees were undoubtedly the root of the Twins firing a GM for the first time in countless years, and a manager for the first time in decades. The Twins have to bring the trees back. When the trees are back in place, the team will quickly become (re)accustomed to hitting with the backdrop, giving them an advantage over their opponents. And instead of counting on a wayward Twins employee to turn the air conditioning on to the home team's advantage, the Twins fans can turn on their mini fans towards centerfield when the opponents bat. It will be like basketball fans trying to throw off opposing foul shooters. Let's end the curse. #BBTT Bring 'em back.

Nice analysis, Parker. I wouldn't mind a Masterson signing. But my priority list for money spent on the Twins rotation this winter would look like this, with #1 way out in front: 1)Extend Hughes 2)Bring Liriano back 3)Sign Masterson Assuming, as we all do, that hoping for a Twins Scherzer and Lester or signing is folly.