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AlwaysinModeration

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Everything posted by AlwaysinModeration

  1. AlwaysinModeration
    Hopefully it will soon become a rite of passage for all Twins fans to make the hajj to see this kid pitch.
  2. AlwaysinModeration
    Even when players are established in MLB, they can have complete busts of a year, any one of which would totally tank a potential picks draft prospects. Let alone trying judge players in high school or college during a year plus with pandemic limitations. Seems unsurprising that picks are all over the place.
  3. AlwaysinModeration
    The season by 10s: 5-5 2-8 4-6 So in football parlance, they are 0-2-1. They really need to get a win or two under their belts. Still a lot of season left to right the ship, but this start is putting them in a decent-sized hole.
  4. AlwaysinModeration
    Baldelli: "We're going to see exactly where he's at. I think today will be a pretty good day to find out exactly where we sit." I suspect that the translation for this is: “He is nowhere near ready to return, you’ll see a move later on today.”
  5. AlwaysinModeration
    My “I was there” story...my former boss, a big Red Sox fan, invited me to a Boston@Baltimore game on Sept 16, 2001. The game, as with all MLB games, was canceled, as were all games Sept 11-16, 2001. We went to the make-up game in early October, which wound up being Cal Ripken Jrs last game. He rode a car around the field at the end of the game, waving and saluting all of the fans.
  6. AlwaysinModeration
    Buxton leading the league in homers, slugging, and OPS. Only second in Batting Average. However, Kepler has twice as many stolen bases as Buck.
  7. AlwaysinModeration
    I thought Thorpe had already been granted a fourth year option
  8. AlwaysinModeration
    It is a bummer those rumors were just that. We thought we knew the source, but when pressed, Garlick denied having started them.
  9. AlwaysinModeration
    Berrios is getting more than Buxton via arbitration, and has been more consistently available. ZIPs has him at 3.5WAR this year (STEAMER lower at 2.8WAR). I’d say he could be an extra 0.5WAR per season, or an extra $8mm for years three and four, plus an extra couple for the higher arb numbers. So if Buxton could garner 4 years for 50-55, a Berrios extension might be 4 years for 60-65?
  10. AlwaysinModeration
    I agree, I don’t think the Twins should give him the full 4/59 value—injury discounts would need to be factored in. Spycake just noted that ZIPs peg him at 2.7WAR over 397 ABs. I think that 397ABs is in part reflecting the risk he won’t be in the field 100% due to injuries. Steamer has him at 3WAR (but 530 ABs). So maybe my estimate of 3.5WAR for his 27/28 year season is a bit high. If he is at 3WAR for 27/28, and 2.5 WAR at 29 and 2 WAR at 30, those last two seasons are worth $36mm, making the extension 5/9/20/16=4/50. Anyway, four years, somewhere between 50 and 55mm seems like a good guess.
  11. AlwaysinModeration
    Tom Tango had an open source thread for years (before getting hired by an MLB team) spelling out in pretty clear terms how free agent contracts are derived. It starts by figuring out what the baseline WAR a player produces per year at their maximum, prime year production (27-28 years old, mostly). For most free agents, they are starting decline phase, and so you need to discount that max value by 0.5 WAR per year. Then you figure out the going rate in free agency per WAR, and you can figure out how much a player contract might be. The real key is figuring out the baseline WAR. Buxton maxed out at 3.6 WAR on Fangraphs at age 23, and was listed at 5.0 WAR on BBref for the same year. But he’s totaled between 8-10 WAR over the past 4 years on those sites (granted last year was a short year); 2-2.5 WAR per year. I think the most you could reasonably peg him at is 3.5 WAR for his age 27 and 28 seasons. That would drop to 3 WAR for his age 29 season. So to answer your precise question, at $8mm/WAR, he could expect a $24mm salary for his age 29 season when he hits free agency. Of course, his age 30 season would be less; discount to 2.5WAR, or 8x2.5=$20mm. 31 would be 2WAR/16, and age 32 would be 1.5WAR/12. So a four year free agent contract for Buck (for his age 29-32 seasons) would be 4/72, or $18 per year. Full value for Buck, using these calculations, including his last two arb years and two years of free agency, would be 5/10/24/20=59.
  12. AlwaysinModeration
    So to revise a bit, he’d probably want an increase for this year (from 5.1 to 6): 6 / 10 / 13 / 16 = 4 / 45 Add in a fifth-year option for 20, with, let’s say, a $5mm buyout. The guarantee would be a nice round $50mm, with the Twins getting up to three FA years, and Buck making more than Polanco, Kepler or Sano. A nice commitment to Buxton from the team, mitigating some of his injury downside, but still plenty of possibility that he outperforms the value of the contract.
  13. AlwaysinModeration
    Would be a no-brainer to try to extend Buxton. In answer to the question of what would make sense: 5 / 9 / 12 / 14 = 4/40 That would be buying out two years of free agency. If he is a 2.5 WAR player, he would be worth 2.5/2/1.5/1 over the next four years = 7 WAR, at $8mm per WAR, he would get $56mm if he were a free agent. Given that they kind of screwed him out of a year of service time, they should give him slightly more than 4/40, especially given his high upside (if healthy, he definitely can post north of 2.5 WAR.) I’d say 4/44 might work. Added benefit: shows Kiriloff that after he loses a FA year by staying in St.Paul for April, he doesn’t have to worry that much about it.
  14. AlwaysinModeration
    Ahem. Joe Niekro
  15. AlwaysinModeration
    Well I think I’d go with: 7. Phil Niekro 6. Nelson Cruz 5. Bartolo Colon 4. Dave Winfield 3. Jim Thome 2. Paul Molitor 1. Steve Carlton
  16. AlwaysinModeration
    Ding ding
  17. AlwaysinModeration
    Trevor Bauer 2021: 40mm Also, 2021: 38.5mm Nelson Cruz Andrelton Simmons Alex Colome JA Happ Hansel Robles
  18. AlwaysinModeration
    That’s one way to stick it to the White Sox. Also, Hayes reporting that Nelson Cruz’ cousin helping to seal this deal.
  19. AlwaysinModeration
    I’m looking forward to the playoff series that includes Donaldson, Simmons and Buxton.
  20. AlwaysinModeration
    According to Fangraphs, Cruz produced 6.3 WAR over the past two years, for a value of $49.6mm, while earning $26mm. He needs to produce 1.7 WAR to make this contract worth the money, which he has done for eight consecutive years (actually averaging 3.7WAR these last eight years, despite last year being 60 games.)
  21. AlwaysinModeration
    I don’t think it’s realistic to expect him to win more than one World Series MVP over the next two years. Buxton will likely win the other one.
  22. AlwaysinModeration
    Great to have Cruz back for another season, even though expectations for his output need to be tempered a bit. That should leave just enough money in the budget for the Bauer signing.
  23. AlwaysinModeration
    I think it is obvious that Cruz will be back. He will probably be worse than he has been the past two years, but still one of the best bats on the team, and one of the best DHs in the league. One year, $10mm, with a $2mm option on an $8mm second year. Hopefully he gets 100 starts for the Twins this year, and is healthy in October when they make an extended run in the postseason.
  24. AlwaysinModeration
    Why do you view Musgrove as so critical?
  25. AlwaysinModeration
    And the TD summary heading into 2019 didn’t have Arraez in the top 20: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/32301-article-td-2019-top-minnesota-twins-prospects-recap/?fromsearch=1 Meanwhile MLB didn’t list Arraez in their top 30 top Twins prospects for 2019.
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