AlwaysinModeration

Sorry for the weird formatting. In any event, the narrative that Austin can only hit LHP is based on his MLB numbers, which is a small sample, and is incorrect when you add in his minor league stats. So, in answer to the question, what do you do about Austin, I say "keep him!" He can play 1B full-time, or DH, or even play some OF. Even if they sign Cruz, I think there is plenty of reason to keep Austin around. (And don't forget, they gave up Lynn to get him.)

I dug through the bbref pages to pull up the platoon splits for Austin, Cron, Cave and Cruz, including their minors numbers (but not Cruz' minors; plenty to go on from his MLB resume). Here are the results, which were somewhat surprising to me: Player PA vs RHP OPS vs RHP PA vs LHP OPS vs LHP Austin 2144 .... .834 .... 927 ... .811 Cron 2716 ... .790 ... 1030 ... .833 Cave 2355 ... .815 ... 836 ... .632 Cruz 4651 ... .835 .... 1767 ... .927 So Cruz, unsurprisingly, is the best player of the four, regardless of the starting pitcher. Signing him should help the team, depending, of course, on how much he declines. Note that Cruz OPSed over 850 in two of the past three years versus right handers. The second most valuable player from that group, in my view, is Austin. He has hit RHP just as well as Nelson Cruz over his career! Cave looks like the third most valuable, with an OPS north of 800 against RHP, which is more than 70% of the ABs. Of course, as a lefty with Kepler and Rosario, he doesn't have a good path to ABs in the OF, and he doesn't hit righties better than Austin or Cruz, either. And he is terrible versus lefties. Cron looks weakest from this group. Sure, he mashes lefties, but not much more than Austin, and definitely not more than Cruz.

Would like to see them sign Cruz. But would it really mean the end for Austin? A four person bench; catcher, MI, OF, 1B/DH type? I kind of feel like Austin has some nice upside. As for the others, Soria, sure. Others, not as sure. Ramos would be an upgrade, but Garver thrived last year.

Will Falvey or Levine play Milo Minderbinder in the movie adaptation?

Does TR get credit for drafting Buxton and Berrios? And also for the Rule 5 Santana signing?

Another guy who seems to be a preferred option to posters here is Jed Lowrie: 262/335/414, 17.6 career WAR, 35 years old. Six seasons (majors/minors) hitting 780+, Including the last two years hitting 800 plus. He might be better than Schoop, but it’s probably a toss-up at best, going into his 35-year old season, he’s likely to start declining pretty fast. Is he the guy you want to sign to a multi-year contract? To me, Daniel Murphy is the only clear upgrade over Schoop. And 1)I’m not sure Murphy would be a regular at 2B, and 2)they could still sign him (2b/1B/DH). Of course, he’s more expensive than Schoop, and that extra money could go towards relievers, for example.

I know there is a lot of clamoring for Marwin “Mr. Versatile” González around here. Just want to do a reality check. Career stats: Schoop: 256/294/444, 11.5 career WAR, 27 years old, six seasons (minors/majors) >780 OPS González: 264/318/419, 12 career WAR, 30 years old, three seasons (minors/majors) > 780 OPS Marwin also hit over .300 two years ago...during a season he hit .343 on balls in play. Maybe I’m reading the numbers wrong, but to me, I’d rather put my chips on Schoop having a better 2019 than Gonzalez.

I think the answer is yes. In the last month of a lost season after suffering a September concussion, it seems very prudent to keep him away from the tools of ignorance. But I fully expect him to be sharing catching duties with Castro this year. As for Chirinos—perhaps the front office is considering either of the current catchers in trade packages? And yes, agree that catcher’s need better protection, better helmets. There should also be very serious penalties for batters hitting catchers on their follow-through swings. It one of the reasons I think batters should have to keep two hands on the bat during their swing.

Schoop’s batting average on balls in play in 2018 was 261, down from 330 in 2017 and down from his career average of 296. And yes, when a player has a down year, it is in fact very useful to look at his career numbers. This seems like an obvious thing to say, but players usually produce closer to their career numbers than outlier years, especially those skewed by low batting average on balls in play, which is flukey, but over time generally gravitates towards .300. Finally, and again feels somewhat obvious to say, players generally post their peak numbers during their prime age, which is generally, looking at the vast majority of players, during their age 27-29 seasons. Schoop is 27. Incidentally, Cron is 29. Garver is 28. Austin is 27. Rosario is 27. Kepler is 26. Sano is 26. Polanco is 25. Buxton is 25.

Career stats: Dozier: 246/324/444, 31 years old ($9mm in 2018) Schoop: 258/294/444, 27 years old (1yr/$7.5mm for 2019) Escobar: 257/308/417, 30 years old (3yrs/$20mm for 2019-2021) Murphy: 299/344/458, 34 years old ($17.5mm in 2018) I’d rather have Schoop that Dozier for 2019. Schoop is better than Escobar, especially for his 27year season instead of three years of Escobar’s 30s. Murphy is better, and will be a lot more expensive. The big key there is whether Murphy is actually able to play second. I think he would be a fine signing for a LH bat at 1B/DH, with maybe some games at 2B.

Here are career stats: Dozier: 246/324/444, 31 years old Schoop: 258/294/444, 27 years old Schoop hits for a bit better average, Dozier gets on base a decent amount more, they have the same exact power, and Schoop is four years younger. I’ll take the guy going into his 27 year old season for a one year $7.5mm year deal, sounds good to me.

I’ll repost what I wrote yesterday or two days ago on the “Schoop, Avisail non-tendered” thread: “Looking at Schoop’s track record, he has posted four seasons in the minors and two seasons in the majors of at least 780 OPS. He had a bad year last year, but he’s still very young and looks like an excellent bounce back candidate.” Like the move. Polanco-Schoop could make a very strong hitting MI. As for his low OBP, sure, it would be nice if he was at 350+. But I kind of like a 30HR, 800OPS 2B who is aggressive.

Looking at Schoop’s track record, he has posted four seasons in the minors and two seasons in the majors of at least 780 OPS. He had a bad year last year, but he’s still very young and looks like an excellent bounce back candidate.

I am strangely optimistic about this season. There are a number of things that, in my mind, are pointing in the upward direction: 1)They got a new manager with new ideas, energy, and personality, while retaining a bench coach to work with him, who had a legitimate chance of being a manager himself. I’m optimistic about the new manager, but also view it as addition by subtraction of the old manager. 2)New pitching coach who has significantly improved pitchers at every organization he has been with. Out of the box (college) pick that might become a league-wide trend if he has success. 3)Sano went to Ft Myers last year to work on conditioning, committing to the team and the system, and is going to come into this year with something to prove. 4)The team gained another year of Buxton. Like Sano, he’ll come in with something to prove. Getting him back in CF should improve all of the starting pitching. I think he wins his second platinum glove and his bat starts to round into form and he may get an All-Star nod. 5)Last year’s two-year investment in Pineda was all about the second year. We are about to see whether that bet pays off. 6)Other players on the roster pointing up: Garver, Berrios, Gibson, May, Rodgers, Austin. Plus Castro coming back. Full year of Polanco. Kepler isn’t pointing up, per se, but he learned to hit LHP last year, so he might start to put it all together this year. 7)Finally, no commitments (other than arbitration) beyond 2019. The Front Office obviously was making a concerted effort to do this. Beyond the Joe Mauer era, now all of the personnel and players are going to be players they choose and want. So even if we look at where the Twins are now, I see lots of reasons to be optimistic. And I don’t think they are going to stand pat. I expect several signings (nothing more than 3 years) and maybe a trade. And I see them being competitive in 2019.

While I’m a bit suspicious that Tyler Jay or Jake Reed will get picked, I am hoping that this is a sign the FO has plans to sign one or more free agent relievers this offseason, who are considerably better than Jay or Reed are or will ever be.

Speaking of Nola and Benintendi, I have to wonder if Brent Rooker and Trevor Larnach aren’t Twins in part because of the successful transition to the bigs by those two players specifically, and if the Twins were open to hiring Wes Johnson (when a hiring like that has never really been done before) because of some recent MLB successes of accomplished college draftees? I know people hate Monday morning QBing, but in 2014 when the Twins picked #5, I remember that before the draft I kept looking at Aaron Nola’s outstanding college pitching stats and thinking that he might be the best pick (he went seventh). Then in 2015, when the Twins picked #6, I remember clearly pre-draft how there was lots of talk about how much “helium” Benintendi had and how much the Red Sox loved him, getting him at #7. It confused me how certain it was that the Red Sox were going to get him, with the Twins drafting one spot ahead of them. I can’t help but think the Twins brass has to regret having Nick Gordon and Tyler Jay instead of Nola and Benintendi, and whether those fairly prominent misses at the college level have factored into the Rooker, Larnach and Wes Johnson acquisitions.

Mississippi St pitching stats: 2015: 482IP, 395/199 K/BB, .269 BAA, 4.51 ERA 2016: 567IP, 576/208 K/BB, .245 BAA, 3.35 ERA

Dakota Hudson junior year: 2.55 ERA, 115 Ks in 113 IP Hudson senior year: 1.09 ERA, 125 Ks in 64 IP Any guesses who was his new pitching coach senior year?

Arkansas pitching stats. See if you can spot when Johnson starting coaching there: 2016 452/238 K/BB, .273 BAA, 5.00 ERA 2017 317/89 K/BB, .226BAA, 3.32 ERA 2018 619/237 K/BB, .237BAA, 3.55 ERA

This guy has a two decade track record of taking mediocre pitching staffs and making them considerably better, increasing player velocity, strikeouts and reducing walks. He got a masters in kinesiology. “Arguably, his greatest success story is former Dallas Baptist University righty Brandon Koch, who arrived in Dallas as a shortstop and left as the greatest closer in school history. Working daily with Johnson, Koch went from a 7.20 ERA his freshman year to breaking the school record with a 0.64 ERA in 2014.”

He turned Dallas Baptist University into a perennial powerhouse, and spent one year at Miss State before getting hired by Arkansas: http://www.arkansasrazorbacks.com/coache/wes-johnson/ “Johnson was one major reason Mississippi State was able to go from worst to first in 2016. After the Bulldogs only totaled eight wins in 2015 and had the highest ERA in the league, Johnson developed MSU’s pitching staff into one of the best in the country, helping the team win 44 games, its most since 1997. “Led by (2016 34th overall pick by Cardinals Dakota) Hudson, Mississippi State’s team ERA improved by more than a full earned run this year (3.35)...”

Seems like an excellent choice. He was scouted by a couple of mlb teams. http://www.wholehogsports.com/news/2018/nov/15/sources-wes-johnson-leave-arkansas-twins/ “Johnson is known for developing power pitchers. His two Arkansas staffs finished with a combined 1,238 strikeouts in 133 games, and several Razorbacks saw significant increases to the velocity of their pitches as a result of Johnson's emphasis on lower-body workouts and pitch-mechanic analytics. “At Johnson's urging, prior to the 2017 season Arkansas installed a radar system called TrackMan that records and analyzes 46 data points for pitchers on every pitch. “If you get into biomechanics, you find out really fast that a pitcher cannot repeat his delivery," Johnson told WholeHogSports in 2017. "You’ve got over 600 muscles in the body. To think that the roughly 240 that we use in pitching are going to fire at the same time - you’ve got a better chance at winning the lottery. TrackMan gives me a chance to show guys a consistent release height and some things we can repeat."

I was going to come on here and write that if no one else had.

I’m seeing a trend with the front office. They definitely like grabbing AAAA / post-hype guys near their age prime. Robbie Grossman, Jake Cave, Tyler Austin, this guy. Doesn’t seem like a bad strategy.

That’s right. They wanted to get a-tent-ion.