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AlwaysinModeration

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Everything posted by AlwaysinModeration

  1. AlwaysinModeration
    1. There isn’t a ton of evidence in Twins history that money saved one year gets spent in future years. 2. Rooker isn’t knocking on the door yet. Cruz as a Twin in 2019 isn’t impeding Rooker. (Austin, potentially, yes, but Austin is kind of marginal—at least not likely a centerpiece of a future Twins competitive team.) 3. Lewis and Kiriloff are, but throwing them into your point is a red herring. How exactly does signing Cruz have any impact on Lewis or Kiriloff?
  2. AlwaysinModeration
    I’d say more than effectively.
  3. AlwaysinModeration
    Here: The Twins are going to win 100 games. Cruz, Sano, Cron and Schoop all hit 30+ home runs, Buxton hits 10 triples and Kepler hits 40 doubles. (Oh, and Berrios, Gibson and Pineda all get Cy Young votes.) You heard it here first!
  4. AlwaysinModeration
    Ervin got $13.5mm per year, Nolasco 12mm, so this is in fact the most the Twins have paid a free agent on an annual basis.
  5. AlwaysinModeration
    Is this the highest AAV free agent contract the Twins have ever handed out?
  6. AlwaysinModeration
    Reading that piece, I can’t help but immediately think of the positives effect he is going to have on Sano and Buxton. Just off the top of my head, he’s Dominican, has an incredible work ethic, positive attitude, a very impressive career, a conscientious eating regimen, and tee / hitting drills that specifically work on hitting sliders and power to all fields.
  7. AlwaysinModeration
    Boomstick.
  8. AlwaysinModeration
    Where does Nelson Cruz fit on this list? ;-)
  9. AlwaysinModeration
    One thing to note about Cruz’ down year last year: his batting average on balls in play was .264, which is 40 points below his career average on balls in play of .305. Correspondingly, his average (.256) was the lowest he hit in a decade. The three prior years he hit at least .287 each year. Even still, he OPSed .850. It’s possible he’s starting to decline...or it’s possible his numbers bounce back up a bit. I still don’t see any guaranteed contracts for 2020.
  10. AlwaysinModeration
    *cannot tell if joking or not*
  11. AlwaysinModeration
    Well, you can. It involves a 12-man pitching staff and a four-man bench (C, IF, OF, 1B). The problem is you then have three righties for 1B/DH. Of course, if Austin can play some OF, he could certainly get starts against lefties in place of Kepler or Rosario.
  12. AlwaysinModeration
    And a one-year deal to boot! Nice. I hope they find a way to keep Austin and Cron, in that order.
  13. AlwaysinModeration
    Fun topic. Also fun to look at last year’s list. A notable miss from last year’s list was Escobar, whose great four months netted him a big return. Turns out he had a lot of value, especially if Duran turns into a frontline starter. In terms of Javier moving up two spots, I’m trying to reverse engineer that move. Without going name by name, I see 12 players who should be clearcut top 15 ahead of him (and that includes May). That leaves 3 spots for Rogers, Rooker, Larnach, Thorpe, Garver, and Austin. Which three are top 15, and which are outside the top 20?
  14. AlwaysinModeration
    Hicks posted an OPS of .787 in the second half of 2015 before he was traded. Dozier played worse with the Dodgers than he did with the Twins (which was saying something). Anyway, I disagree with your premise.
  15. AlwaysinModeration
    You are right, not safe to assume any extension can be had for any of the three. However, Gibson is a long-time organizational player (and the player rep), and the Twins invested in Pineda when he was injured, so I think both would give them consideration. But even if they wind up with none of them next year, I think that Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves and Mejia (plus Thorpe and Little) are plenty enough to work on as a basis for a rotation in 2020, which could be supplemented by an extra arm via free agency. My point is just that I don’t think that there is “nothing” in the cupboard for 2020. I would not be targeting an extension for Odorizzi.
  16. AlwaysinModeration
    A few important questions: 1. How does one pronounce “Jhoan”? 2. Is his nickname Jhoan “Hungry Likes the Wolves” Duran or just Jhoan “Duran” Duran? 3. Can he be convinced to start calling himself Johan?
  17. AlwaysinModeration
    To follow up on this, I looked up Gonsalves’ minor league numbers: 108 games started, 599IP, 2.42ERA, 1.10WHIP, 9.5/3.6 K/BB. Duran’s numbers: 54GS, 259IP, 4.02ERA, 1.32WHIP, 8.0/3.2K/BB. Gonsalves had 4 mediocre starts in the big leagues and people have written him off. Not to throw shade on Duran, like I said I hope he turns into a great prospect for the Twins and sustains the improvement. I would have Gonsalves ahead of Duran on prospect lists, though. He could turn into a mainstay in the rotation for years to come. Duran is a long way from becoming that. Edit to add: I see that you have Gonsalves ahead of Duran, Tom. But two of the four of you have Gonsalves ranked lower than Duran. I think that Gonsalves’ mediocre debut shouldn’t tarnish his outlook. Remember Berrios....
  18. AlwaysinModeration
    Certainly hope that the performance Duran finished the year with is a new level for him that he can sustain. Quite something that some of you have him in the top 10 of Twins prospects, ahead of all SPs aside from Graterol. (Ahead of Gonsalves?!? Wasn’t he the top of some lists last year? Has he fallen that far, or is Duran really that good?)
  19. AlwaysinModeration
    Taking a slightly different tack on this. If I recall correctly, Gibson was brought up late one season, to the point where the Twins gained an extra year of service time. If Gibson has a great year this year, he is going to set himself up for a significantly higher contract next offseason than if he were a free agent right now. So having that extra year could actually wind up helping Gibson earn a lot more money. This backs up a point I was making about Buxton. The assumption is he is getting screwed by losing a year of service time, but maybe that’s not definitive. The other point I’d make is - why so much fretting about who they have have under contract for 2020? They have Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves, and Mejia. They can extend any of Gibson, Odorizzi or Pineda next offseason if need be. And there is next year’s free agency market too. I’m not too worried about filling out their rotation in 2020 right now. But in answer to the question, I personally would prefer extending Gibson, a guy who the Twins have invested a lot of time in, and who finally seems to have come into his own, rather than a guy they just got, who seems worse.
  20. AlwaysinModeration
    While I would have no problem with Keuchel signing, I think Cahill or Buchholz would be just fine as a SP signing. But I would like that supplemented with two RP signings. Kelvin Herrera (hopefully two years) and Zach Britton are both fairly young and have excellent track records. Robertson and Miller would also be great options. Adding Cahill, Herrera and Britton would be a great result for the pitching staff offseason, in my view.
  21. AlwaysinModeration
    Interestingly, Tyler Wells isn’t on any of their breakouts lists for 2019, either. (Go buy the handbook to find out who is). He does get a nice long article as the organization’s pitcher of the year, and as he landed that award, it does seem fitting that he isn’t really a good breakout candidate. While he would technically fit the bill (top 30 with a chance to break into the top 10), it wouldn’t really be under the radar. I also found it noteworthy that Wells dropped 60 pounds over the last couple of years.
  22. AlwaysinModeration
    Seth, Tom and Cody— I just bought the PDF version of the handbook. Not only have I been enjoying it, I am also very glad to support you guys for all of your work on this site. The handbook is extremely well done. Congratulations, and more importantly, thank you! Two things: 1. Was there a profile of Misael Urbina? If so I think I missed it. Saw his rankings in the top 20 for two of you. 2. I won’t give away all of the “breakouts” candidates you have all selected (people should go buy the handbook to find them; they are starred in the player profiles), but I will share one of them, with this great nugget, paraphrased: A scout said that if Blaine Enlow had gone to LSU (he had committed there and would have been a sophomore now), he would have easily landed in the top 15 picks of the draft after three years (2020 draft). So by getting him to sign as a high schooler, the Twins essentially stole a first round pick.
  23. AlwaysinModeration
    Just to explore this a bit further, I went to look up the career splits for Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, and Sano. Adding in minor league and major league ABs: Kepler vs RHP.....PA: 2722....OPS: 803....vs LHP....PA: 860...OPS: 678 Rosario vs RHP.....PA: 2974....OPS: 838....vs LHP....PA: 1203...OPS: 732 Buxton vs RHP.....PA: 1977....OPS: 792....vs LHP....PA: 697...OPS: 801 Sano vs RHP.....PA: 2760....OPS: 870....vs LHP....PA: 887...OPS: 918 Copying the other numbers as well: Austin vs RHP.....PA: 2144....OPS: 834....vs LHP....PA: 927...OPS: 811 Cron vs RHP.....PA: 2716....OPS: 790....vs LHP....PA: 1030...OPS: 833 Cave vs RHP.....PA: 2355....OPS: 815....vs LHP....PA: 836...OPS: 632 Cruz vs RHP.....PA: 4651....OPS: 835....vs LHP....PA: 1767...OPS: 927 Certainly seems like Austin should be in the OF every time a lefty is on the mound, subbing in for either Kepler or Rosario. And he should start at 1B against righties.
  24. AlwaysinModeration
    For both Cron and Austin, they had K/BB numbers in the minors of about 2.5 to 1. In the majors, Cron’s rate jumped to 4:1, whereas Austin’s has jumped to 5:1. For Nelson Cruz, he had a similar rate of 2.5 or so to 1 K/BB in the minors and also in the majors. I would assume that both Austin and Cron would improve their K/BB rates over time, gravitating towards their minor league rates. On a slightly different note, Justin Bour has an OPS of 853 against righties, better than Austin, Cron, Cave and Cruz!
  25. AlwaysinModeration
    I don’t think even Baines was pushing for Baines for the HOF.
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