Nick Nelson

Royce Lewis delivered in his much-anticipated return from the injured list as the Twins enjoyed a restful, winning week at home and widened their lead in the AL Central to a season-high six games. As we turn toward the home stretch, the Twins are in the driver's seat, with the best odds to win their division outside of the MLB-dominating Dodgers and Braves. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/14 through Sun, 8/20 *** Record Last Week: 3-2 (Overall: 65-60) Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +43) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (6.0 GA) Last Week's Game Results: Game 121 | MIN 5, DET 3: Wallner Grand Slam Lifts Twins to Win Game 122 | DET 8, MIN 7: Rare Jax Implosion Proves Decisive Game 123 | MIN 5, PIT 1: Twins Cruise Behind Pablo's Gem Game 124 | PIT 7, MIN 4: Early Leads Evaporates for Gray Game 125 | MIN 2, PIT 0: Dallas Deals in Series-Clinching Shutout NEWS & NOTES As expected, Royce Lewis was activated as soon as the Twins returned home from their long road trip, starting at third base and batting third in Tuesday night's series opener against Detroit. To make room on the roster, Willi Castro was moved to the injured list with a mild oblique strain, delaying any hard roster decisions for now. Later in the week, Minnesota swapped out Jordan Balazovic for Oliver Ortega in the leaky bullpen. Joe Ryan started a rehab assignment in St. Paul, where he pitched on Friday night and threw four innings of one-run ball. HIGHLIGHTS The Twins offense has rounded into form. They didn't exactly end the week on a high note, scoring two runs as the Pirates stymied them with a bullpen game, but that kind of day is now more the exception than the norm. Minnesota entered play on Sunday ranked second among American League teams in runs scored since the All-Star break, and first in wOBA. Games like Sunday's, where pitchers need to be near-flawless to win, have become far more rare. The team's improvement is being fueled by an emerging young core of hitters, which is especially exciting. Lewis made a huge impact right off the bat, coming through with a clutch RBI single in his first game back, and then following with a three-hit showing on Wednesday. Edouard Julien opened up with a four-hit game and drove in four runs on the week. Matt Wallner continues to establish himself as a real difference-maker with his power and poise. His game-winning grand slam on Tuesday was without question the biggest highlight of the week, salvaging victory from the jaws of defeat against a Tigers team that weirdly tormented the Twins all year. Wallner almost did it again the next day. Pablo López extended his scoreless innings streak to 18 with another stellar outing on Friday night, shutting out the Pirates over six to improve to 4-0 with a 0.36 ERA in August. A terrific showing, but López he was shockingly upstaged two days later by Dallas Keuchel, who managed to carry a perfect game through six innings before getting chased by a one-out double in the seventh. He finished with 6 ⅓ frames of scoreless one-hit ball, lowering his ERA to a respectable 4.85 after getting clobbered by the Phillies his last time out. Keuchel is obviously very limited by his sluggish velocity and inability to miss bats, but on Sunday he executed his gameplan to perfection against a bad team, attacking the zone and inducing endless grounders. The results were as good as anyone could have asked for. It was fun to watch, and cool to see for a player who's by all accounts a good guy and teammate. That doesn't necessarily mean the Twins should be planning to let him make his next scheduled start, but we'll get to that later. LOWLIGHTS The Twins bullpen is becoming a big problem. And it's one that the front office will increasingly face scrutiny for after failing to address it in any meaningful way when they had the chance. The swap of struggling relievers that brought aboard Dylan Floro – Minnesota's only move resembling a deadline addition – hasn't been all that helpful, as he's posted a 1.64 WHIP through eight appearances as a Twin. Floro came in against Pittsburgh on Saturday and immediately yielded a run-scoring hit, then walked two straight batters in the next inning. Ugly stuff. The idea that a middle of the bullpen carried by the likes of Floro and Balazovic, whose brutal outing on Saturday earned him an immediate demotion to Triple-A, is looking like some very faulty logic from the Twins brass. Worse yet, the shortcomings of the middle relievers are being magnified by the lapsing high-leverage horses in the late innings. Griffin Jax had his worst performance of the season on Wednesday, coughing up four earned runs in one inning against a bad Detroit offense, with each run proving very costly in an eventual 8-7 loss. The appearance raised his ERA from 2.96 to 3.62, just like that. To his credit, Jax did bounce back with a couple of big outings in the Pittsburgh series. Meanwhile, Jhoan Duran has been far from dominant for some time now. His previously unhittable repertoire has been anything but over the past couple months – Duran has gotten through an appearance without giving up a hit only once since June. He gave up four knocks in three appearances last week, including his sixth home run. (The same total he allowed all of last year.) It's tough to know what to make of Duran's diminishing effectiveness in this regard. The velocity and stuff are still there for the most part. He still struck out seven hitters across the three innings of work last week. But opponents are finding ways to solve his arsenal, with nearly a .900 OPS against the flame-throwing right-hander since the start of July. Duran needs to make some adjustments of his own in the remaining weeks of the regular season to turn the tides. It might be fair to say that no other single player on the roster is more pivotal to Minnesota's chances of success in the playoffs. TRENDING STORYLINE Who starts next Saturday, when the rotation spot presently occupied by Keuchel swings back around? That's now the big looming question. It figures to be an important game against a tough lineup with Max Scherzer scheduled as the opposing starter. Do the Twins view Ryan as ready? He only threw 71 pitches on Friday night and while the results were solid, he did give up a home run and was oddly erratic, throwing only 38 of those pitches (53%) for strikes. Keuchel should not be viewed as an option despite his successful results on Sunday against the Pirates. It's almost impossible to envision him putting forth a competitive outing against a Rangers offense that leads the AL in OPS by a sizable margin. Louie Varland is the wild-card here. He's been excellent of late at Triple-A (0.70 ERA in his last four starts) and, while not an ideal matchup against Texas given his HR-proneness, he probably would give the Twins their best chance of the three. Unfortunately, the schedule lines up in a bit of a tricky way for Varland, who last pitched on Wednesday. The Saints are off on Monday, as always, and if he starts Tuesday at Omaha, Varland would be on three days rest for the Saturday turn. I wonder if the Twins will have him make a very short (2-3 inning) start on Tuesday, to keep open the possibility of a weekend promotion. LOOKING AHEAD On Monday, the Twins will have their third day off in a weeklong span. So they'll be as rested as they're gonna be the rest of the way as they head into the most challenging week on the remaining schedule: six games against first-place teams, including four against the Rangers, who lead the AL in run differential (+189). TUESDAY, 8/22: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Wade Miley WEDNESDAY, 8/23: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Corbin Burnes THURSDAY, 8/24: RANGERS @ TWINS – LHP Andrew Heaney v. RHP Pablo Lopez FRIDAY, 8/25: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Dane Dunning v. RHP Sonny Gray SATURDAY, 8/26: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Max Scherzer v. LHP Dallas Keuchel SUNDAY, 8/27: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Jordan Montgomery v. RHP Bailey Ober View full article

It would be a dramatic (short-term) slide down the defensive spectrum ... but could move Minnesota's top prospect into an immediate – and permanent – impact role in the big leagues. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports At Twins spring training this year, there was plenty of buzz and energy afloat, owing to a number of factors. Among them: new team uniforms and branding, the stunning return of Carlos Correa, and (above all) the first remotely normal camp since before COVID. I had the opportunity to cover the team for a week in March, and definitely enjoyed soaking in all of those sources of good vibes. But there was one player in particular who naturally stood out to me. It was one of the least-tenured players in the organization – drafted just nine months earlier – and the youngest player in big-league camp. It was obvious at the time: Brooks Lee was special, and that was no secret. In five months since, that has only grown more apparent. After accruing 42 at-bats in spring training, second-most of any Twins player, Lee opened his season at Double-A. It was a pretty aggressive assignment for a player drafted the previous summer, but hardly a surprise with Lee, who joined Wichita for the playoffs last fall. He took the challenge in stride, as usual. Lee's performance during the first half in Double-A was solid, if unspectacular. Then, as he settled in and made his adjustments, the 22-year-old started to heat up. He slashed .365/.433/.600 in July to earn a promotion to St. Paul earlier this month, putting him one step away from the majors. Lee is currently experiencing an early learning curve at Triple-A, but history tells us it's only a matter of time before he masters this level like each before it. From there, it becomes a matter of fit on the big-league team. He's spent time at both shortstop and third base in the minors this year, and most figure he'll end up at the latter. But that position is hopefully going to be occupied on the Twins by Royce Lewis, at least for the rest of this year. Lee's future defensive home was a subject of conversation when I chatted with him this spring for a Twins Daily story. I asked him if he'd received any indication from the team about playing other positions, given that Correa was freshly minted the biggest free agent contract in franchise history. "Nothing yet so far," he said. "I can take control of myself by trying to be as good as I can at all three infield positions, so I just continue to practice those. Whatever they ask me to do. If they want me to play right field, I'll play right field. If they want me to play first, I'll play first." Well. That last part, clearly an afterthought at the time, may represent Lee's best chance to make an immediate impact on the Twins. The void at first base for Minnesota Joey Gallo was the Opening Day starter at first base, and the only reason he remains the primary starter there today is because every alternative fell by the wayside. Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff are both sidelined indefinitely. Donovan Solano is 35 and hobbled. The Twins are so hard-up for help at the position that they started catcher Christian Vázquez there on Sunday. First base is essentially the only position for the Twins that is not comfortably set, and it's nowhere close. The addition of a true difference-maker at first is perhaps the biggest outside boost the offense could realistically hope to receive, given its makeup. They passed up their chance to swing big at the deadline, but that doesn't mean they're entirely out of options. Could Brooks Lee handle first base? I don't want to fall into the trap of downplaying the difficulty of playing first base in the majors. That inclination always reminds me of my favorite scene in Moneyball, when Billy Beane tries to allay Scott Hatteberg's misgivings about moving to the position by assuring him, "It's not that hard. Tell him Wash." To which Ron Washington replies, "It's incredibly hard." First base might be at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, but that doesn't mean it's unimportant, or that a certain skill set isn't required to be effective there. I think a dismissal of this reality is largely fueling the angst and confusion around Minnesota's refusal to try Edouard Julien at first. If you don't trust a guy to play the position with sound mechanics, handle fast-developing situations, and salvage wayward throws with his glove, that can be very problematic. There are a LOT of plays running through first base. With that said, many players take well to the position despite having little or no experience there. These are often large-bodied guys who came up at spots like catcher or third base. Guys like Hatteberg, or Gallo, or Vázquez, or Joe Mauer, or Miguel Sanó, or ... Brooks Lee. I have little doubt Lee could handle putting on a first base mitt for the final stretch of the season, with the understanding it's a short-term arrangement driven by extreme need. The best version of the future Twins core features him at the hot corner. The big question is whether the best version of the current Twins would have him on the opposite side, playing across from Lewis. A bat worth betting on? It bears repeating: Lee has not exactly gotten off to a hot start in Triple-A. Through eight games he is 7-for-33 (.212) with one extra-base hit, one walk, and six strikeouts. Unless and until that changes, this subject is moot. But I'm operating under the assumption it will change, quickly, and if so Lee becomes a very intriguing piece in the team's planning. While his standing atop the defensive spectrum was part of his appeal at atop of the first round, let's make no mistakes: Lee's biggest selling point as a draft pick was his bat. He was among the best and most polished college hitters in the country, and that tool has carried him as a pro, where he's slashed .290/.363/.458 while rising faster than all but one other player from the class. (Zach Neto, who's holding his own as the Angels' starting shortstop.) If Lee gets locked in, his offensive profile is pretty much exactly what the Twins could desperately use: a switch-hitting, disciplined contact machine who can spray line drives and has a knack for making adjustments. There's also a good chance he could flop. Lee is not Superman, even if he currently plays with an S on his chest (two, actually). It would be a lot to ask of a kid barely one year removed from being drafted. But everything I've seen from Lee leads me to believe he might be up to the task. There's a reason I included him on my list of five reinforcements who could make a pivotal impact for the Twins this year back in April. The previous four have already arrived, with varying degrees of success and longevity. Lee is the last big card they have left to play. "There are a variety of different ways Lee could slot in for the Twins, even as he continues to play shortstop exclusively at Wichita," I wrote. "His switch-hitting bat is the real attraction, and the club will be hard-pressed to keep it bottled in the minors all summer if they feel he can help their contending cause." Four months later, circumstances could have hardly come together more favorably to pave way for a meaningful late-season debut. I wouldn't say it's likely by any means, but I've gotta think it's on the table. When it comes to securing this division and ending a 20-year postseason curse, everything needs to be. View full article

The Twins have 42 games remaining and, according to Fangraphs, a 90% chance of reaching the playoffs. What would it take for that dreaded 10% failure scenario to come to fruition? Let's break down the final seven weeks of the schedule to get a clear lay of the land. Here's the short version of what we're about to cover: The Twins are in a really good position. A vast majority of their remaining games are either at home, or against bad teams, or both. Here's an overview of how the final quarter of their schedule breaks down in terms of home/road split and opponent quality. Home vs. Road Home games: 24 Road games: 18 Say what you will about this year's Twins, or last year's, but when playing at Target Field both have been bona fide playoff-caliber teams. The Twins are 33-24 (.579) at home this year, after going 46-35 (.568) there last year. When the Twins last did make the playoffs, in the shortened 2020 season, they went 24-7 at home (.774). They had a .568 winning percentage at Target Field in 2019, and .605 in 2018. If the Twins match this year's benchmark by playing .579 ball in their remaining 24 home games, they'd go 14-10, meaning they could go 5-13 in their 18 road games and still finish .500. They could go 8-10 on the road and finish 84-78, which frankly should be plenty to win this division. Opponent Breakdown Above .500: 15 Below .500: 27 Two-thirds of the Twins' remaining games come against teams that are currently below .500. Many of them are well below .500. This is why, according to the website Tankathon, the Twins have the fourth-easiest strength of schedule for any MLB team. Meanwhile, Cleveland has the seventh-hardest. When you actually shake out the remaining 42 games by opponent, however, you find a somewhat more sobering picture that basically narrows down to 13 critical games. Rangers: 7 games Guardians: 6 games White Sox: 4 games Pirates: 3 games Rockies: 3 games Reds: 3 games Mets: 3 games Rays: 3 games Angels: 3 games Athletics: 3 games Brewers: 2 games Tigers: 2 games The Twins have yet to play the Texas Rangers, who've been leading the AL West almost all year and are 22 games above .500 with a +181 run differential. This is a very good team that only got better at the trade deadline. The last time the Twins played a team of this caliber – the Braves, back in late June – they got their asses handed to them and it led to a closed-door meeting. So these upcoming showdowns with the Rangers – who are arguably the current World Series favorite from the AL – will be watched closely. We can fairly treat these match-ups as a litmus test for October. The first meeting is a four-game series at Target Field the weekend after next. Minnesota travels to Texas the following weekend. Both of those series are followed directly by three-game sets against the Guardians. This 14-day stretch really feels like the defining juncture in the remaining schedule: Aug 24-27: 4 games vs. Rangers at Target Field Aug 28-30: 3 games vs. Guardians at Target Field Aug 31: Day off Sept 1-3: 3 games vs. Rangers at Globe Life Field Sept 4-6: 3 games vs. Guardians at Progressive Field This stands out as Cleveland's biggest chance to make a run and turn the tides on their shrinking postseason chances. If they can make hay in their head-to-head matchups against the Twins, winning say five of six, while Minnesota falls flat in seven games against the mighty Rangers, it's plausible the Guardians could make up ground fast in that two-week stretch. At the very least, they can stay close enough to keep it a race in the final three weeks. But it bears emphasizing how tough the road ahead is for Cleveland. While the Twins are grappling with the Rangers in that time range, the Guardians will have to deal with the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Rays. They've also still got series ahead against Texas, Baltimore, and San Francisco. A whopping 29 of Cleveland's remaining 43 games (67%) are against teams with records above .500 currently. They also have a smaller share of remaining home games (51%) compared to Minnesota (57%). The Guardians are already in a huge hole, trailing Minnesota by 4 ½ games in the division, and as we've established, they have their work cut out for them. If the Twins merely play .500 ball the rest of the way – which truly feels like a given at the bare minimum, given their schedule – Cleveland would need to go 25-18 (.581) the rest of the way to match them in the standings at 83-79. I'm not going to say that can't happen. Anything can happen. But to say the Twins have a favorable path forward in the AL Central would be an understatement. View full article

In typical fashion, the Twins followed a faith-inspiring run of success with a confidence-crushing descent into miserable, punchless play against a beatable opponent. From five straight wins to four straight losses, just like that. In typical fashion, they lost no ground in the AL Central despite this latest relapse. Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/7 through Sun, 8/13 *** Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 62-58) Run Differential Last Week: -8 (Overall: +39) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.5 GA) Last Week's Game Results: Game 114 | MIN 9, DET 3: Bats Break Through Against Lefty Starter Game 115 | DET 6, MIN 0: Dominant E-Rod Snaps Winning Streak Game 116 | DET 9, MIN 5: Ober, Balazovic Bomb in Ugly Loss Game 117 | DET 3, MIN 0: Offense No-shows Again Behind Solid Maeda Game 118 | PHI 13, MIN 2: Phillies Obliterate Twins Pitching in Blowout Game 119 | MIN 8, PHI 1: Lopez, Gallo Lead in Slump-Ending Victory Game 120 | MIN 3, PHI 0: Gray Combines with Bullpen for Shutout NEWS & NOTES The Twins had some injury scares last week, with Donovan Solano tweaking his knee in Detroit and Max Kepler taking a(nother!) ball off his toe in Philly, but it appears both players avoided anything too serious. Solano was back in the starting lineup on Sunday at DH and Kepler entered later as a sub. It was a fairly quiet week in terms of roster action, with Minnesota making only one move: swapping out Brent Headrick after he threw 67 pitches on Friday for a fresh arm in Cole Sands. The impending return of Royce Lewis is the big roster storyline. We'll cover it in depth shortly. HIGHLIGHTS The Twins sandwiched a very ugly stretch of baseball between some fine efforts against the Tigers and Phillies, with a pair of blowout wins and a shutout bookending their brutal midweek four-game losing streak. Among the highlights from the past seven days: Joey Gallo shaking out of his massive slump with a two-homer, 4-for-4 game on Saturday night. Pablo López firing six shutout innings against the Phillies in the same game, lowering his ERA to 3.66 on the season and improving to 3-0 with 0.47 ERA in three August starts. Sonny Gray (6 IP, 0 ER) and Kenta Maeda (6 IP, 1 ER) adding their own brilliant efforts, and fortifying confidence in what is quickly taking shape as the likely Twins playoff rotation. Combined, that trio has a collective 3.05 ERA and 122-to-24 K/BB ratio in 18 starts since the All-Star break, including a 1.84 ERA and 49-to-2 K/BB ratio in August. Michael A. Taylor delivering a pair of web gems in the same inning on Friday night, albeit in a losing effort, and adding another diving catch in a much more meaningful spot on Saturday. Perhaps most consequential of all: Carlos Correa shows real signs of coming on. He ran his hitting streak to eight games in a week where he was 8-for-19 with three homers, two doubles and six RBIs. Importantly: his plate approach was noticeably improved, resulting in a 3-to-4 K/BB ratio. Will this be the breakthrough that sticks? I'm skeptical, but hopeful. It would be a massive development for the Twins and their postseason outlook. LOWLIGHTS The Twins offense can't shake free of its eternal pattern, with each short burst of life followed by an inevitable return to widespread mega-slumping. The lineup impressively scored nine runs in the series opener against Detroit, then got shut out twice in the next three games, and barely made a whimper in the opener against Philly. Sunday saw another unremarkable left-handed starter mow through the Twins lineup with ease. Ranger Suarez was one of five lefties the Twins saw in seven games, which helped to minimize the impacts of Edouard Julien (1-for-16) and Matt Wallner (2-for-18). The prevalence of LH match-ups made it all the more frustrating that aside from Correa, Minnesota's right-handed bats continued to flounder. Kyle Farmer went 3-for-21 with one walk and zero extra-base hits. Christian Vázquez was 2-for-15. Taylor was 2-for-20, offsetting his defensive excellence. Willi Castro (stunningly the LEADOFF hitter in Friday night's blowout loss) was 2-for-19. It's understood these aren't great hitters overall, but their collective inability to produce at all in favorable spots is just killing the Twins offense. Meanwhile, the once-exemplary Minnesota pitching staff is experiencing a major midseason swoon. We can only hope it's temporary. As Aaron Gleeman tweeted, their 13-run shellacking by the Phillies on Friday night left them with the worst ERA and second-highest OPS allowed in the American League since the All-Star break, though they rebounded nicely the next two days. The Dallas Keuchel experiment, as expected, quickly went off the rails, as Philadelphia hitters feasted on his soft arsenal for six runs on six hits and two walks in 1 ⅔ innings. In two starts with the Twins, Keuchel struck out zero of the 36 batters he faced, yielding a 9.45 ERA that's even worse than last year's mark (9.20). We've likely seen the end of Keuchel's ill-fated Twins tenure, with Louie Varland looking like a far superior option (3-0 with a 0.47 ERA in three August starts at Triple-A) and throwing a gem on the same night. It was a worth a shot. The fifth rotation spot is not of terribly high concern in the grand scheme – you only need four starters at most for the playoffs – but Bailey Ober's struggles are more troubling, from both a micro and macro perspective. Just two starts after giving up a season-high 11 hits against the Royals, he matched that total against the Tigers on Wednesday, allowing five runs (four earned) in five innings. These two starts represented a stark departure from Ober's previous dependability, and they came against two of the league's worst offenses. I don't necessarily want to overreact to an altogether short downturn for Ober, especially when his 7.71 ERA over the past three starts comes attached to a 17-to-1 K/BB ratio, and no detectable dip in velocity or control. But it's hard to ignore the fact that he's already well past his previous workload precedent as a pro. Rocco Baldelli and the Twins will need to be very cautious in how they proceed with this key fixture on their staff's present and future. TRENDING STORYLINE Lewis has convincingly looked ready in his rehab stint at St. Paul, going 5-for-12 with two homers in four games last week. He will likely rejoin the Twins on Tuesday at Target Field. The return of Lewis will force some interesting decisions elsewhere. Most immediately, the Twins need to make room on the active roster. Who goes to make room? Jordan Luplow is a logical candidate, although he's made a nice short-term impact and Castro is more functionally redundant. Both have options. Then the question becomes: how does Lewis fit back into the lineup? Presumably he'll take over on a semi-regular basis at third, although that seems to leave Jorge Polanco in the lurch. It would be really helpful if either of those guys could step in at first base, but there's no indication that's in the cards. We'll see how Lewis slots back into the lineup with a bunch of righty match-ups on deck, but the idea of him mixing into the top of the order alongside Julien, Correa and Wallner is pretty exciting. LOOKING AHEAD The schedule is about to get much kinder to the Twins, now that they've finally completed a grueling stretch full of consecutive road trips and few days off. All but two of their remaining games in August will be at Target Field, where they have a .580 winning percentage this year. Their five games in the coming week are all at home, where the Twins will face two bottom-tier opponents with a pair of off days mixed in. Here's a chance to catch their breath and hopefully rattle off some dubs. TUESDAY, 8/15: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Alex Faedo v. RHP Bailey Ober WEDNESDAY, 8/16: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Reese Olson v. RHP Kenta Maeda FRIDAY, 8/18: PIRATES @ TWINS – TBD v. TBD SATURDAY, 8/19: PIRATES @ TWINS – RHP Mitch Keller v. RHP Pablo Lopez SUNDAY, 8/20: PIRATES @ TWINS – RHP Quinn Priester v. RHP Sonny Gray View full article

I don't think he'll ever be a regular starting SS in the majors but it could definitely be a tool in his utility kit.

Those accolades were ... based on ... performance?

Seems like an odd take given the impact that guys like Julien and Wallner have had on this offense. The way to play better baseball is to use better baseball players, and not to have someone like Willi Castro batting leadoff or Jordan Luplow batting second.

The dude is a 24-year-old top 5 draft pick from 3 years ago who was the org's #1 prospect before last season and a consensus top-50 global prospect at the time, but I like how we're treating him as if he's Kyle Sloter. Also - since you mentioned it, you should definitely go and take a look at what Lewis did in his second full pro season.

After a tumultuous run, the centerpiece of the José Berríos trade is re-emerging as a potential difference-maker for the Twins down the stretch. One thing is for sure: Minnesota could sorely use the skills Austin Martin offers when at his best. Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports It is clear to me that certain people – including possibly the Twins manager – have become overly enamored with Willi Castro. He's gone from folk hero to focal point of the offense, drawing a start in the leadoff spot in Friday night's series opener against the Phillies. Look, I'm not here to knock Castro. He's a valuable piece in the right capacity. But a guy with a career .299 OBP and 89 OPS+ is not exactly the prototype for an effective leadoff hitter. (He went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts.) Then again, I get why Rocco Baldelli and much of the fan base would be drawn to Castro. He's an exciting athlete and he brings qualities to the field that are otherwise lacking on this roster. The 26-year-old hits from both sides, can field capably at a variety of positions, and he's a weapon on the basepaths with 29 steals on 33 attempts. The problem is that all these qualities are packaged up in a player who is, overall, not very good. Castro deserves credit for playing to the maximum of his ability, but even at that he's not a starting-caliber player – or he wouldn't be, outside of the circumstances that have put him on a 450-PA pace for the Twins this year. Castro was cut loose during the offseason by the lowly Tigers, and he's not a wholly different player for Minnesota than he was for Detroit. Imagine if the Twins could access a player who brings many of the desirable qualities boasted by Castro, but with greater talent and far more viable upside? As luck would have it, that player might be just a phone call away at Triple-A. Austin Martin was the No. 5 pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, and No. 1 prospect in the Twins system heading into last year, based on traits similar to those that endeared fans to Castro: he's scrappy, he's aggressive, he's versatile. "He's electric," I wrote of Martin and his rep at the time. "He's confident. He's a gamer and a playmaker. You want to see him in big spots." Seventeen months later, the 24-year-old has since traveled a rough and bumpy road – including a brutal 2022 campaign that he attributes to betraying the strengths that made him effective, and an injury-ruined first half here in 2023. But those traits are still within him, and finally it looks like Martin is feeling good again. He missed several months after spraining his elbow in spring training, and then had his rehab disrupted by another injury, but Martin finally made it to Triple-A last month. He was slow to get going, batting just .154 in his first 10 games, but since then he has looked very much like the electric on-base machine that made his name as a prospect. In his past 16 games, Martin is slashing .347/.460/.469 with 11 walks and 10 strikeouts in 64 plate appearances. Here in August he's got eight hits, eight walks and five steals through seven games. Like Castro, Martin can play a variety of positions including second and all three outfield spots. (Third and short could be in play, though his elbow issues may discourage the Twins from using him there this year.) Like Castro, Martin is a prolific and effective base-stealer, 11-for-13 this year and 35-for-41 last year. The big difference lies in their specific offensive profiles, which are polar opposite. Whereas Castro is a free-swinger who whiffs a lot and occasionally gets a hold of one, Martin is a highly-patient contact machine. He led all of Double-A in OBP in 2021, his first pro season, and currently has a .374 OBP at St. Paul. Now THAT is the kind of profile you want in the leadoff spot. Obviously, it is too soon to officially pronounce Martin fully "back" to his best form after a few good weeks. Even at his best, when the Twins acquired him as headliner in the José Berríos trade, Martin had limitations in his game that kept his projections in check – namely, a lack of power or a clear defensive home. Those question marks remain, even as he gets back to excelling on his strengths. Martin has only seven extra-base hits (one homer) in 108 Triple-A plate appearances, and hasn't settled into any specific defensive position there, although he's played a good amount in left and that's somewhere the Twins could use a righty bat ... other than Willi Castro. Obviously, eyes are on Royce Lewis as a short-term reinforcement from St. Paul, and rightfully so. But don't sleep on the impact Martin – who's actually a couple months older than Lewis – could yet make in this campaign if his game continues to lock in. He still needs to be added to the 40-man roster, but even so, Martin seems like a good candidate to be called up in September when rosters expand. It'll be interesting to see if they try to get him up before then to make him available for the playoffs. With his skill set and makeup, Martin is the kind of player you want on the postseason roster. When on his game, you want to see him in big spots. View full article

That's not exactly what I was getting at. Just that having your offense be more power-driven -- and the Twins are power-driven, they rank 6th in the majors in ISO -- can be more beneficial in the playoffs. Strikeouts tend to be associated with being power-driven but obviously they are not good at this team's extreme.

In what way is this "assuming best case"? It is laying out the things that would need to happen to put the Twins in a favorable position, and I'm not sure how one could say any of them are remotely implausible.

Even after playing dead at the deadline, the Minnesota Twins remain heavy favorites to win the AL Central and reach the postseason for the first time since 2020. Despite their clear flaws, the Twins are actually built for playoff success at a core level. As uninspiring as their play has often been, it's not hard to envision this team making a push come October, given the right breaks. Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports The MLB postseason gets underway in a little under two months. That's a long time in baseball terms. There are still many games to be played, many moments to be experienced, and many twists of fortune to be unraveled. The Twins were riding a high note with five straight wins before falling flat on Tuesday night in Detroit, but before that, things were ugly. Throughout the year they've maintained a gravitational pull toward the .500 mark. They stood pat at the trade deadline while simultaneously receiving grim injury news regarding two critical pieces (Brock Stewart and Alex Kirilloff). Their high likelihood of making the playoffs owes much more to the division they play in than the quality of their play. I'm not here to tell you those are good things. But these factors do not negate Minnesota's chances of winning a playoff game, series, or more. Here are some narratives that fans should be tracking over the final third of the season to gauge this club's true postseason mettle. If all or most of these things are clicking come October, this team will be worth believing in. Offense finds a groove balancing aggressiveness and power. It is accurate to say that the Twins are far too strikeout-prone and power-dependent as an offense, and that's hurt them throughout this regular season. It's also accurate to say that, generally speaking, these traits are more favorable in the postseason. When you're facing high-end power pitchers almost exclusively, a run-scoring model focused on ambushing and striking with the long ball becomes more valuable, because that's how pretty much all teams have to score against these guys. Striking out a bunch ain't so out of the ordinary. You're likely not stringing together singles against Max Scherzer. Mixing deep threats like Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner and Ryan Jeffers with dynamic offensive weapons like Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis would give the Twins a potentially potent attack for a short series. Meanwhile, Willi Castro would make for a fascinating postseason bench weapon. If the Twins can get guys like Kirilloff and Jorge Polanco healthy and on track, all the better. Of course, there's one position player who supersedes all others in terms of pivotal playoff magnitude. Carlos Correa finds a semblance of his classic form. I'm not exactly optimistic about Correa's prospects of permanently shaking free from this season-long slump. But I've been known to be wrong before, and boy, would I love for that to be the case here. His first couple of games in Detroit have certainly been encouraging. The shortstop looms large as a factor for October, because postseason accolades were among his biggest selling points as a top-tier free agent. Correa is one of the great playoff performers in major-league history, ranking sixth all-time in RBIs and No. 1 among active players. Correa has made roughly three times as many career postseason plate appearances as all other Twins combined. The 28-year-old is well acquainted with the biggest spotlight and he has thrived under it. That was undoubtedly a compelling draw for a team that hasn't made it to the World Series since before he was born, and hasn't won a postseason game since he was 10. In the first year of his $200 million contract with the Twins, Correa should have an opportunity to deliver on his rep and make good after a perpetually disappointing regular-season campaign. Frontline starters keep pitching like frontline starters. Good starting pitching is an essential ingredient for postseason success. This Twins rotation ranks among the best in franchise history, with no fewer than four playoff-caliber starters. Leading the way are All-Stars Pablo López and Sonny Gray, who both rank among the top 10 in the majors in fWAR. Bailey Ober has a 3.21 ERA in 18 starts since joining the team from Triple-A. Kenta Maeda has a 2.47 ERA in eight starts since shaking off some residual elbow fatigue. Joe Ryan is currently on the injured list after tanking while playing through a groin strain, but prior to that he had a 2.98 ERA in 15 starts. The Twins will likely be at a match-up advantage in at least the second and third game of an ALDS series. If they make a deeper run, their depth of high-end starters only grows more valuable. But that depth needs to stay intact until then. Back end of the bullpen stays healthy and strong. Starters taking care of business only goes so far if the relievers can't hold up in the late innings. We saw this issue rise to the forefront in the Twins' most recent postseason appearance, in 2020. The current Minnesota bullpen is blessed with two of the best high-leverage relievers in the game, Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. If they keep pitching the way they have, that's a massive advantage in October. This points to a key challenge that manager Rocco Baldelli has been grappling with all year. Phil Miller wrote in the Star Tribune all the way back in early June that the Twins were being careful about not overusing Duran, knowing the risks posed by his injury history and ferocious delivery. Which is why Duran's post-break usage has been a bit alarming. He pitched back-to-backs only three times in the entire first half, but has already done so three times since the All-Star break, including pitching three straight days in mid-July. Meanwhile, the righty's performance on the mound has sagged, with a 6.39 ERA and .321 opponents' batting average since the beginning of July. On the bright side, Duran has received a bit of a break lately, as he hasn't been needed since last Friday. Baldelli will need to emphasize getting him more of these breaks in the final weeks, putting the manager in a tough position, given that he also needs to secure the AL Central while lacking additional late-inning bullpen depth thanks to the front office's deadline dud. Slumps are only slumps, and Duran's still hurling the ball in triple digits with a filthy breaking ball. Hopefully a bit of a respite helps him get back on track and the Twins can keep him strong into October, because he has the potential to be a massive postseason weapon. Same goes for Jax. The big question then becomes whether the supporting cast – Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagan, Dylan Floro, etc. – has enough quality to fill the gaps and seal the deal. View full article

Last week's trade deadline came and went without a move from the Minnesota Twins front office, who decided they're comfortable with the group they have, even as their on-field product continued to lag. To their credit, the team responded with a 5-1 week, extending their lead in the Central to 4 ½ games as the division crumbles beneath them. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/31 through Sun, 8/6 *** Record Last Week: 5-1 (Overall: 59-54) Run Differential Last Week: +13 (Overall: +47) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.5 GA) Last Week's Game Results: Game 108 | MIN 3, STL 2: Solano's Big Hit Leads to Slim Victory Game 109 | STL 7, MIN 3: Cards Crush Ryan for Four Homers Game 110 | MIN 5, STL 3: Gray Excels, Earns First Win Since April Game 111 | MIN 3, ARI 2: Three Solo Shots Enough to Sink D-backs Game 112 | MIN 12, ARI 1: Jeffers Homers Twice in Blowout Win Game 113 | MIN 5, ARI 3: Kepler Ties It, Wallner Walks It Off NEWS & NOTES The Twins headed into the trade deadline looking like a team in dire need of help, riding a five-game losing streak and coming off an embarrassing sweep to the Royals. They got none. The front office strangely stood pat at the deadline, passing up the opportunity to make even minor additions for a flawed team being struck by continuous attrition. The gravity of their inaction was felt even more heavily as we learned that Brock Stewart and Alex Kirilloff, two players who were in line for key roles down the stretch and beyond, had troubling injury setbacks. Kirilloff is now on the injured list with a right shoulder strain that's been bothering him for some time and worsened. Stewart was moved to the 60-day IL last week, unable to shake his forearm soreness. It would not be surprising if neither makes it back this year. The Twins also lost Byron Buxton to the IL with a strained hamstring, and Joe Ryan with a strained groin. The circumstances of Ryan's injury were especially frustrating – he evidently had been bothered by it for several starts but failed to notify the team, pitching horrifically in the meantime. Speaking of pitching horrifically, the Twins had seen enough of that from Jovani Moran. Shortly after the left-hander issued three walks in one inning during Saturday's blowout, he was optioned to St. Paul. He just can't stay in the strike zone and unless that changes Moran has no future in the big leagues. The roster did get some reinforcements amid all of these subtractions. Brent Headrick was swapped in for Moran, joining newly-activated Caleb Thielbar as a second lefty in the pen. Jordan Luplow was claimed off waivers from Toronto, adding a much-needed right-handed bat to the mix – albeit a lesser alternative to what was available via trade. And on Sunday, Dallas Keuchel made his Twins debut against Arizona. Keuchel wasn't very impressive, recording zero strikeouts with two walks and eight hits allowed, but lucked his way into holding AZ to one run. He figures to get at least a couple more looks while Ryan is sidelined. HIGHLIGHTS From a big-picture view, the most impactful developments of the week – in terms of the Twins and their outlook – took place elsewhere. While Minnesota did nothing at the deadline, Cleveland one-upped them by selling off key veteran pieces in Aaron Civale and Josh Bell. Later in the week, their biggest star sparked an on-field fistfight with White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson. A perfect summary of the "drunken bar fight" (as GATG coined) that is this year's AL Central. Jose Ramirez might've taken down Anderson in the scrum, but his Guardians were the ones taking haymakers and dropping in the standings. They lost five of six games to fall four and a half back of the Twins, who more than took care of business against a pair of struggling National League opponents. Ryan Jeffers was the emergent star of the offense, leading the charge in Saturday's 12-run flurry with a pair of home runs after doubling and homering in the St. Louis series. He finally appears to be realizing his potential as a power-hitting force at catcher, and became the first Twins position player to reach 2.0 fWAR. As a part-time catcher, that's an extremely impressive number for early August. The success of Jeffers is almost entirely counterbalancing the total offensive void that has been Christian Vazquez. Michael A. Taylor joined the fun on Saturday by homering in his third straight game. Much like Jeffers, albeit to a lesser extent, Taylor's combination of power and defense at a premium position make him more valuable than meets the eye. Max Kepler has gotten back to offering those qualities too, minus the premium position part. He went deep three times over the weekend at Target Field, including a game-tying blast in the bottom of the ninth on Sunday, and suddenly his OPS his healthily above-average. The glovework in right field remains sterling. Shortly after Kepler tied Sunday's game in the ninth, Matt Wallner stepped in with a runner on first base and nobody out. Paul Sewald, who'd been victimized by the Twins in a loss two weeks earlier (as a member of the Mariners), left a 92-MPH fastball out over the plate and Wallner said "buh-bye" for his first career walk-off in the majors. At last, Wallner has found his way into everyday playing time in the majors and he is thriving. The Twins cannot look back at this point. He went 6-for-20 with two homers, two doubles, and seven RBIs last week. Wallner has seemingly settled in as Rocco Baldelli's No. 5 hitter against right-handers and it's a good look. On the pitching side, it was a sorely needed stabilization for the Twins and their staff. The rotation's lagging performance after the All-Star break was setting off all kinds of alarms. But outside of Ryan's dud, the starters got it done. Sonny Gray notched his first win since April on Wednesday, hurling seven innings of two-run ball before handing it to Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran for a smooth 3-2 victory. He struck out eight and walked none, peppering the zone with confidence all night. It's the kind of emphatic and decisive performance that's been oddly rare for Gray during this undeniably stellar season. Kenta Maeda was lights-out once again on Saturday. Pablo López and Bailey Ober also threw well. Dylan Floro made a welcome impact with two shutout innings from the bullpen. Jax threw three scoreless eighth innings, all in tight situations, to lower his ERA to 2.85 on the season. There are a lot of parts to like on this team, which makes it all the more befuddling that the front office failed to supplement or add depth in anyway at the deadline. Alas, that's in the past now, and doesn't take away from the teeming potential of this ballclub when enough pieces are clicking. Especially if they could get one other piece in particular to click... LOWLIGHTS When Carlos Correa managed to drop a two-run single into left field in the sixth inning on Sunday, giving the Twins a (brief) lead, one can only imagine the level of relief he felt. To say Correa had been in a skid would be an understatement: He entered the game slashing .143/.204/.184 in his previous 12, and had already grounded into two double plays on the day, extending his league-leading total to 22. Despite his best efforts, Correa has been a constant drain on the lineup, failing to harness any burst of momentum or find a sustained rhythm at the plate. He's homered just once since June 24th (a span of 150 plate appearances). Sunday's game was his first with multiple RBIs in more than three weeks. I desperately want to believe that Correa's clutch moment against Arizona will finally be the breakthrough that sticks and sets up a late surge. But my faith has run dry. We've seen so many of these fleeting, false indicators of a turnaround that I've finally grown convinced Correa is what he is, for this year at least: a below-average hitter with frustratingly repetitive tendencies. Sure enough, in his next at-bat – with a runner on and the game tied in the eighth – Correa went down in familiar fashion, watching a fastball sail over the plate uncontested for strike three. All things considered, Minnesota is in a relatively favorable position: overwhelmingly likely to make the playoffs with a roster makeup conducive to October success. (Good starters and backend relievers, power-driven lineup.) The Guardians fortunately seem intent on maximizing Minnesota's margin or error, but the runway is never going to be infinite. The Twins need better from guys like Correa and Ryan, who are viewed as leaders on this team. They need to stop feeding at-bats to Joey Gallo. They need to catch a few dang breaks on the health front. (The return of Royce Lewis, hopefully later this month, looms large.) The past seven days may have moved the needle strongly in Minnesota's direction for the AL Central race, but did little to quell the nagging concerns that this group – left intact, as such – is equipped to end the franchise's postseason curse narrative. TRENDING STORYLINE With all the big news surrounding the trade deadline and shifting AL Central dynamics, it was also a very eventful week on the Twins farm. Top draft pick Walker Jenkins debuted in the Florida Complex League, doubling in his first professional plate appearance. We'll be waiting a long time for the arrival of the 18-year-old stud outfielder, but it's going to be fun to follow him. Twins fans won't have to wait nearly as long to see to see the organization's No. 1 prospect, and top draft pick from a year ago. Brooks Lee was promoted to Triple-A last week, putting him just one step away from the majors at age 22. It's not unthinkable Lee could find his way up to the big leagues this year, especially if Lewis can't rebound from his oblique injury, but one way or another he's not far off. The Saints return to CHS Field this coming week if you're interested in catching baseball's No. 17 prospect in action. LOOKING AHEAD These are what they call the dog days. The Twins are running through a bit of a summer gauntlet in the schedule right now: 16 games in 17 days, with 13 of them on the road. They're wrapping up this tough stretch in the coming week with trips to Detroit and Philly, with no break. The second half of August gets much more accommodating: after next weekend's Phillies series, they have four off days mixed into the following three weeks, and 12 of their remaining 14 August games are at home. They've just gotta get through this next week. Beware: lefty starters lurk ahead. MONDAY, 8/7: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. LHP Joey Wentz TUESDAY, 8/8: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Sonny Gray v. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez WEDNESDAY, 8/9: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. TBD THURSDAY, 8/10: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Reese Olson FRIDAY, 8/11: TWINS @ PHILLIES – LHP Dallas Keuchel v. LHP Cristopher Sanchez SATURDAY, 8/12: TWINS @ PHILLIES – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Taijuan Walker SUNDAY, 8/13: TWINS @ PHILLIES – RHP Sonny Gray v. LHP Ranger Suarez View full article

Being frustrated when the team plays bad or makes weird decisions is part of the fan experience. Comes with the territory of being emotionally invested in a team you've followed for decades. I still have fun watching the games and enjoy talking about what's happening. I guess some people have a hard time separating those things, not me.

Gotcha. I would say the fact that he's not hitting fastballs sort of negates the idea that he's not getting anything to hit and that's the problem. You gotta hit fastballs.

Like, because he has better hitters around him? Correa ranks 9th among qualified Twins hitters in OPS+, the only ones worse are Vazquez and Taylor. You're seriously blaming other hitters for this?? He is THE problem with the lineup come on now.

Wouldn't it be great if they didn't consistently validate this chicken-little BS? Believe me, I'm right there with you friend. Unfortunately this team has yet to shut up any of the nay-sayers in the past two decades or so.