Nashvilletwin

A lot to like here. Excellent analysis and creative idea. A couple of things: 1. Neither Lewis nor Martin projects as a plus defensive SS. Ideally, they are your starting RF (Lewis) and LF (Martin) in 2023. Think about that combo on either side of BB for 3-5 years. 2. Therefore, this could be the year to fire up a longish term deal for a true SS. The best way to pay for that is to trade Josh and use his cash. JD is a declining asset on a team that will struggle to contend. A team like the ‘22 Twins needs more ascending assets. Any declining assets certainly can’t be making $23MM+. Let Miranda man 3B for most of next year and beyond - he’s the future. 3. Twins won’t spend that much on a #1SP in 2022. I’m just not sensing it. Redeploy that cash into a killer pen. Rocco doesn’t let any starter go past 5-6 IPs anyway. I like adding one or two #3 type SPs - but otherwise see what you’ve got in your youngsters than splurge on a #1 or #2 SP if needed in 2023 when the team is more likely to contend. But a killer pen will always keep you more than competitive. 4. I like the call on Kepler. Keep Sano at DH and Kiriloff at 1B. The starting OF next year on either side of BB is a bit dicey, but both Lewis and Martin need to see plenty of time there in the second half of ‘22 anyway. Thanks much, very fun read.

So we head into 2022 with pretty much the same lineup as we ended the year? Maybe add a different #3 SP and/or a few relievers? That, my friends, is not a recipe for success. Neither Martin and Lewis go project as plus defensive SS. They do, however, project as outstanding corner outfielders. And that’s where they should be starting and playing every day in 2023 with Buxton I’m the middle. Move Donaldson and use the cash to invest in a long term deal with one of the leading FA SS

Whoa Nelly! Actually, I just wanted to write that. Probably never heard that, huh. Love the creativity behind the plan. Like others have stated I’d be concerned about trading out known contributors for prospects. If we are going to kinda rebuild, I’d go in a different direction. But the heart of your plan is to swap out some salary and add a true #1SP, a #3SP, a top line SS, and a top RP. Those are excellent aspirations. All of those are needs. Thinking along your lines, but not going quite as far and assuming 2022 is bit of a transition, I think we stick with Buxton and use the capital from #1SP in your plan to pay for him. I’m thinking we still trade Josh and use that cash to get a long-term solution at SS. Martin and Lewis do not project as strong enough defensively at SS. Still add the #3SP and build the pen using Kepler. Then add the #1 or #2 SP in 2023 after you see what you’ve got in the up and comers. Here’s what I’m building toward in ‘23. 1B Kiriloff 2B Polanco SS New player added this off season 3B Miranda LF Martin CF Buxton RF Lewis C Rortvedt DH Sano Bench - Arraez, Celestino, Larnach, Gordon, Jeffers SPs - Ober, Ryan, #3 signed this year, one or two of the young guys coming up, #1 or #2 signed next off season based on need. RPs - Build a killer pen. In the 5 inning SP world of modern MLB, it’s all about pen quality and depth. Don’t skimp here. This is a good mix of vets and youngsters, solid up the middle on D, plenty of power with good OBA, built for a multi year window, and, importantly, affordable.

I get it 100%, but in this lineup, he’s not our every day 2B, SS, or 3B. Unless he’s moved, he should play and that would be the best spot. The proposed lineup though does afford good positional flexibility so he clearly could get at bats at different positions throughout the year.

Great post. Except for Correa, all could be good additions. With our young rotation next year, having an elite pen is critical. Both relievers would slot right in and make us pretty much elite, even without TR back at full strength. Chris Taylor on a $2x10 would be ideal. Play him at SS in 2022. If Lewis shows up in 2023, he still is more than useful in our lineup at a corner OF or super utility position in 2023. Rodriguez is a bit like Big Mike - take you pick, probably room for both. We could probably get all four for a little more than the price of JD - so trade Josh. Then move Kepler and use those savings plus Cruz’s savings to resign Buxton. Resign Big Mike to a similar deal to what he just finished. Starters: 1B AK, 2B JP, 3B JM, SS Taylor, LF LA, CF BB, RF TL, C MG, DH MS. Bench: RJ, BRortvedt, NG, BRooker, GC (some combo of these active) Starters: Rodriguez, MP, BO, JR, plus one of Grant, Dobnak, and Jax (others are depth). Relievers: JA, TD, TR, CT, JM, DC, Hembree, and Tepera. With that elite pen, this lineup would a) be competitive in 2022, b) not cost too much more than current levels, and c) set the team up for solid growth and a more open window in 2023-4.

No!

You absolutely are on the right track. The one factor you might be overlooking is the cash aspect. Twins ownership has been great over the past several years - essentially going all in from 2019-2021 in an attempt to gain the WS. They’ve likely lost over $100MM since the pandemic began. We should not expect, nor demand, that they replicate that strategy given the current state of the roster. So, with that in mind: 1) Yes, 100% top priority. 2) Not happening if a FA and unlikely to happen via a trade. 3) & 6) Yes, at least two, maybe three, elite BP arms will be needed to support our young rotation, ideally one is late inning reliable. 4) Yes, as Lewis realistically might not be fully ready until well into 2023 and no one else in the organization projects as a pure SS at the moment (we wish Austin Martin did, but he doesn’t). 5) Yes to Big Mike. 7) Yes, 100% - Josh for sure, and maybe Max too, to help pay for it all. Those two together (and I think we could get close to full value for Josh) plus Nelson Cruz are over $40MM. That should pay for Buxton, a SS and at least two top quality relievers. So I essentially agree on everything except the top of the rotation FA or acquisition. If we could get that done “economically” (i.e. in cash or trade capital) then you have nailed the post season plan.

Ted, good list but you left off Josh. He’s the number #1 person I’d move. I get that he actually had a pretty good year - particularly in the late 2nd half when the season was already lost. He’s a good, actually very good, baseball player both at the plate and in the field if healthy (which has been fairly unreliable). He’s a veteran presence as well (but has that really translated in the dugout and the clubhouse though?). He very well may be worth his $20+MM. But not to us - not at this time. Josh is a declining asset taking up valuable cash and real estate on a mid market team that has lost lots of money over the past couple of years and has a strong emerging player ready to take his spot. Signing him was a great bet at the time. It made tremendous sense for a team willing to go all in. But that window has passed. Let me repeat that for all of us fans who think 2021 was just some sort of an aberration. That window has passed. The Twins exiting 2021 are not in the same position as the Twins heading into 2019. Josh’s late season play will contribute to getting a better deal for him from a team looking for that key piece. Even more likely if the NL adopts the DH. If all the analytics guys on this site are correct, then there should be takers at full value for Josh’s WAR. Resigning Buxton, signing a SS, and adding pitching (targeting the BP and maybe Big Mike) are simply better uses of that cash at this point in time for the Twins. Give Miranda and Luis the 3B innings and turn over the veteran leadership to Buxton. BTW, I’d move Kepler as well……

Ted - I think you nailed all the issues. I’ll go first. The 2022 Twins are a going to be about the future - not the present. The team is not likely to be in the position to realistically compete given the projected staff and ownership’s probable (and justifiable) reluctance to go all in again (particularly after possibly losing a boatload of cash over the past two years). Consequently, Josh should be moved for whatever salary relief we can get. I liked the move when we signed him, but the window that made that deal a decent bet has closed. Use the savings to redeploy into singing Buxton, a new SS and pitching (I’d add Kepler to the move list too with the same target use of proceeds) Miranda plays 3B, Polanco 2B, Kiriloff 1B and Sano is DH. Luis plays LF and Larnach is RF. The new SS and Buxton provide strong defensive chops up the middle. Resign Pineda (to a lumber deal between a 2x4 and 2x6). Let the young guys start and build a shutdown pen. That team could play competitive ball, be within realistic payroll expectations, and build for the start of a new window in 2023.

Simple - Sano stays another year. The hope is 0.240, 35 dingers, and 100 RBIs serving primarily as the DH. If he does that he will stick around in 2023 with his $14MM deal. Actually he’s in a great spot to earn that last year by playing well next year. Really a win-win situation for both club and player next year.

Another example tonight of how a mid market team can compete : a league minimum pitcher gets through five in good shape and hands over the reins to a shutdown pen - btw, beating the guy who wants $30MM/year. An entire staff like this will cost a team no more than 1-1.5 Berrios’s. With the continuing trend of longer at bats and shorter pitch counts, more winning teams will have a deep, reliable and relatively cheaper (compared to starters) pen. This will be the Twins strategy over the next two years.

Gant starts with Ober and Ryan (alongside possibly one or both of Dobnak and Jax). Rogers, Duffey, Thielbar, Alcala stay Up to five free agents or trades - at least three of whom should be considered better than those four. Don’t skimp on the pen. With a starting pitching rotation that will no doubt be made up of a number of youngsters, the pen is the key. No laying up on the pen.

Poor fundamentals was a big part of this season’s downfall. They played like poop in the preseason and it continued right on into the regular season. Regardless if everything else goes right re injuries, decent starts, etc., it’s hard to win consistently if the team plays poor fundamentals baseball. IMO, that’s on Rocco and the staff. And, as the team probably will be getting younger going forward, I’m questioning if Rocco is the right manager to lead this team in 2022 and beyond.

This is exactly the pitching model the Twins should pursue in 2022 and probably 2023. Namely, a five - six inning start of less than four runs by a controllable, league minimum or there abouts starter followed by a shut down pen (Colome not withstanding). It’s a good strategy for a mid market team in the modern game. We probably have at least four starters on the roster or on the system that fit that description. Who knows, one or two could even develop into a solid 6-7 inning #2 or #3 (ideally Ober and Ryan become that). We might even already have 3-4 relievers that could be part of that pen. The pen is the key.

Trade Kepler and Donaldson in the off-season for as much salary relief as we can get and redeploy the $30MM into a lockdown pen. We’d win a lot more games.

Assumptions: 1. Twins understand who they are: a mid market team that went all in over the past two seasons and failed (both financially and in the standings). 2. Ownership and the FO know that they don’t have the pitching talent or currently the $ necessary to solve the pitching, particularly with Buxton being resigned. 3. The team’s roster of promising young players, both in the field and on the mound, will need to be developed in 2022 in order to develop the talent and financial space to open a new window for 2023-2025. 4. Buxton is resigned. That’s a must. So with Donaldson, Kepler and Sano still on the team, there is not enough $ to go top end on a FA SS or SP. That’s the reality. So the question for those three players is who is going to be on the 2023 roster? The assignment was opening day lineup in 2022 - I’ll give you end of year as well. C - Garvers, Jeffers (and Rortvedt). Two are always on the team, but all three are needed through the year. All three are around at the end of the year (but one of them, most likely Garver, could be moved at the deadline). 1B - Kiriloff. Starting and ending. 2B - Polanco. Starting and ending. SS - FA. Lewis is not ready and the depth in the FA market is too good to pass up for solving the SS market for three years. 3B - Arraez/Miranda. Donaldson is moved. We won’t get all the $ back, but it’s a sunk cost anyway. His trade value will not be any higher than over the off-season based on his strong September. Arraez starts the year and Miranda gets the call early in the year at some point. DH - Sano. He gets another year to prove he can hit .240, 40 dingers, and 100 RBIs. INF Util - Gordon. In reality, Arraez, Gordon Polanco and Miranda all are available to play multiple INF positions (with Arraez and Gordon also available for the OF) based on injuries, rest, and in game strategy/decisions. LF - Larnach/Martin. Larnach starts in LF but the goes to RF. See below. CF - Buxton. This has to happen. RF - Kepler/Larnach. Kepler gets the start but is moved by the TD (to make room for Martin, create $, and receive quality and controllable BP help or minor league SP in return). OF Util - Celestino. He is defensively very strong and can play CF when BB gets hurt. By the end of 2022, this lineup of 13 position players is balanced in terms of defense, offense, youth, veterans, flexibility and pay. It will be ready to compete in 2023. As an aside, I’m not sure Rocco is the guy to lead this team given its relative youth and the importance of the ongoing development of the younger players.

That Twins’ loss today was as typical as the Vikings’ loss on Sunday. Game in hand, a close call that should never have been needed in the first place goes against us, and the oh so predictable loss (and the as predictable bellyaching about the umps/refs) follows. Sad.

Another great example of why Rocco is probably not the right guy to coach this club in the future. With this team likely getting much younger and filled with more prospects transitioning into true big leaguers, fundamentals trump analytics.

Donaldson is a much bigger millstone around our necks with the multi year deal. At least with Simmons it’s one and done at less than half the annual cost as Donaldson.

At the moment a 2022 SP lineup of Ober, Ryan, Gant, Dobnak and Jax (I have not given up on Jax as #5 at the back of the rotation) would run us about $6MM. We have at least a handful of additional young starters able to be part of the rotation as needed. Give them innings and put the cash into building a shutdown pen. That’s how a small/mid market team like the Twins can best compete in the modern game.

Couldn’t agree more with this post and mikelink45. As a small/mid market team, we need to look for windows. Ours could open again in ‘23. In this era, having a staff with 3-4 cheap SPs who can deliver 5-6 ips and 3 ers or so (i.e. era 4.50-5.00) augmented by a shutdown pen is a good strategy, particularly for lower budget teams. Save the bucks on starters and commit more $ to the pen. By ‘23 we should be able to identify a strong stable of young, league minimum, controllable SPs out of our many options. Maybe one or two develop into legit #2s. But it might not matter if four of them are legit #3-4s. Then bring in a veteran leader (Berrios?) if necessary/desired. But in all cases, have a shutdown pen. Two asides: 1. Resign Buxton. 2. Is Rocco the right guy to lead/develop these young players? Given the horrendous lack of fundamentals displayed by this team this year, it’s a legit question.

Donaldson will tweak a hammy any time now. He’s due. Slot Miranda right in at 3B. Trader Josh in the off season unless we want a $24MM dh. Take what you can get - salary relief would work.

Agree 100%. The big stars call the shots - they won’t give up any $ so the little guys on a whole make more.

Can’t walk batters with ducks on the pond.

Of course it should be higher. RISP means better pitches. Arraez’s is 16 points higher (.333 vs. .317). Still zero dingers and 25 ribbies for $23MM? That’s a fail. With two years left now. The signing didn’t work out. Its ok - it happens. I liked it when it was announced. It was a good bold move by the FO and ownership. But the FO should consider it now a sunk cost and move on in the off-season. Donaldson is not a part of the future and should not impede the progress of any player who could be.