Nashvilletwin

Nothing would make us TDers happier than to see Royce pencilled in as the long-term starting SS beginning sometime in ‘23 (probably the best case scenario). Having said that, if Royce doesn’t stick at SS and Miranda is our everyday 3B, I wouldn’t be disappointed if Royce roamed RF next to Buxton for many years. I get it - if Royce can truly be an average to above average defensive SS with a decent bat to go along with it, then that’s his spot. But if he can’t, and I know I’m in the minority on the TD, I salivate about the combination of speed/range, arm strength, power, OBP, and manageable cost that could come from an outfield of Martin, Buxton and Lewis.

You are 100% correct. The Twins have the cash to sign Story. And they should. An additional reason being is that they can always move on from JD at the deadline if we are not competitive (which given the state of the starting staff is not unlikely). So it only costs a little over 1/2 year of additional JD in the worst case. The additional advantage is that Miranda can be eased in as desired. Either give him ABs at AAA and wait his turn. Or, break camp with him in the utility role along with Arraez and Gordon and seeing ABs mostly in the infield but some in the outfield maybe as well. If JD is moved, then Miranda hasn’t just been thrown in the fire. This is probably the best case scenario. I just don’t feel it is going to happen.

Agree as well 100%. It’s just too bad that, if we are likely to move on from JD by the deadline, we won’t bite the bullet now and replace his cash outlay with Story. With Miranda manning 3B, solve SS for at least four years and eliminate the pressure to move Polanco to across the diamond. If at some point either Lewis or Miller look like everyday SSs, we deal with that then.

I think you are spot on TopGunn. JD stays this season. Miranda (and Arraez) gets lots of ABs playing left with Larnach and spelling JD at 3B. For nearly $25MM/yr I’d still prefer Story at SS than JD at 3B, but - sadly - it’s unlikely that scenario comes to fruition. Also, its unlikely the Twins add Story without moving JD (we can dream - theoretically it’s possible). As you point out, this still leaves a gaping hole at SS. Having said that, if the Twins are not competitive by the deadline, JD gets moved and hopefully some combo of Martin, Celestino and Larnach split left and Miranda is full time at 3B with Arraez and Gordon in utility roles. Depending on how Martin, Larnach, Celestino and/or Lewis are developing, Max could be moved too at the deadline. Boy, it’s just so much easier for the Twins to deal with a hole at 3B than it is at SS. Miranda (with Arraez in the backup role) at 3B with Story at SS and Polanco remaining at 2B is just a stronger, and better for the future, lineup.

Here’s hoping Miranda is our regular third basemen for at least the next six years. If he were joined in the infield by Story, Polanco, and Kiriloff for at least the next four of those, the Twins starting infield would probably stack up well against any team in the league both offensively and defensively. Miranda is an incredibly important piece to help open our next window as early as next season. I hope we give him the innings and ABs to develop quickly this season at the major league level.

Couldn’t agree more. Give us two-three solid #2-3 starter types (and Balazovic, Ryan, Ober and a few others could project as such), two-three solid #3-4 starter types and two-three dependable late inning reliever types out of the cadre of young, cheap, controllable approaching arms we have and we’d be in really, really good shape (in terms of both performance and committed cash). That means finding six-nine dependable pitchers (with four starters) out of the pitchers in our top twenty prospects and Ober, Dobnak and Jax on whom we can rely from ‘23-‘26. It’s doable and appears to be the plan of the FO.

Ok so it may or may not cost a few bucks more either for Story and/or to move JD. I agree that signing Story likely means a JD trade - however, not because the Pohlads are cheap, but because the owners and FO know that ‘22 is most likely a repositioning year given our projected starting staff. The real issue is that none of Lewis, Martin or Miranda may actually be a major league shortstop - let alone a major leaguer (although I expect all three to be solid MLers). Miranda and Martin aren’t even really in the SS discussion. If Lewis does pan out at SS then you have the proverbial rich man’s problem. The more likely scenario is that in ‘23 all three of these prospects are starting at other positions - 3B (Miranda) and corner OF on either side of Buxton (Martin and Lewis) with Story at SS, Polanco at 2B and Kiriloff at 1B. Lewis is probably the biggest risk at this point to be anywhere in the lineup in ‘23, let alone SS. Sign Story and get Miller ready over the next four years as the heir apparent at SS.

Sign Story and declare victory at SS for the foreseeable future. 4-6 years, $25MM/year or thereabouts. If we need to move JD - whose value, btw, just went up with universal DH - either this off-season or by the trade deadline to get team spending on budget or preserve capital for FA pitching, we should do it. Miranda/Story > JD/whomever is in the organization for the next several years. Story, Polanco and Buxton up the middle is an elite major league lineup. The point being if we had to make a choice for a $25MM/yr left side of the diamond infielder, Story is a much better investment than JD.

1. I love the Twins - just want to say that upfront. 2. The Twins are not likely trading any top prospects for starting pitching this offseason. Just don’t see it - the FO wants to see what it has. 3. Our rotation is in a world of hurt. Lots of young guys - no real proven reliables. Some things around the edges (i.e. sign Big Mike) might get done, but this is not the year we go all in. 4. Don’t fret - we have three things working on our favor. A. We have a great core of starters and relievers on the way. B. Sadly, this likely is going to be a short season - so we won’t need as many innings. C. Our pen should be solid. Oh, and Maeda - who is reliable - should be back in 2023. 5. So, let’s be patient, see how 2022 rolls out, and enjoy following our young developing talent. The FO is positioning this team - in terms of player development and contracts/cash so that 2023 and beyond could be something special.

Sign Story. Then Arraez and Miranda can be your utility players.

Easy - sign Story and declare victory.

I wouldn’t sleep on Varland and Sands either. Plus Dobnak and Jax could be serviceable major leaguers too. So that’s 13 pitchers - if just two become regular #2-3 type starters and two/three are consistent #4 types, our Twins will have a solid AND very cheap/controllable starting staff for several years. There will be plenty of opportunities for Duran to an ultra effective pen piece if that’s ultimately his best role. Re Lewis, yes, an everyday SS would be huge. However, I’d be more than happy if he turned out to be an anchor corner OF along with Martin either side of Buxton.

Ok, so sign Story and we can transition to Miller - if and when that becomes realistic in 3-4 years. The point being that Cody nailed the critical point; namely, we have been historically weak with a revolving door strategy at the diamond’s most important position. So solve our SS issue and have a rich person’s problem if Noah (or any of the others) actually pan out.

The issue we will have is innings. Lots of good young arms not ready to be year long starters. Therefore, look for a number of our prospects to see the big league mound this year.

Love Max and would like nothing more than to see him get his mojo back. Having said that, if two or more of the following circumstances are in place before the deadline: 1. he doesn’t perform; 2. at least two of Larnach, Celestino, Martin and Lewis look solid; and 3. the Twins are not contending; then the sad fact is that the team will look to move Max by the deadline.

Well, if you had your druthers for the next two years, which infield would you rather have: A. Kiriloff, Polanco, Story, Miranda and Arraez and Gordon in utility roles; or, B. Kiriloff, Arraez, Polanco, Donaldson and Miranda and Gordon in the utility roles. It should cost about the same as Story is projected at $25mm/year or so - similar to Donaldson. Personally, if the cold hard truth is that neither Lewis nor Martin is not going to be our SS of the future, I’d choose A. Why? Emphasize strength up the middle, keep Polanco in his natural position, give Miranda the ABs and innings he needs, replace one declining asset with one declining less, and have a core infield that could stay in place for an additional two or so years.

Along with Buxton in center, some combo of Martin, Lewis, Larnach, Celistino, and Wallner in the corner and backup outfield positions ideally in 2023. Cheap, interchangeable, mix of power, speed, OBP, and fielding strength - and at least two decent CF backups in Lewis and Celestino (and possibly Martin) when needed. Gravy would be that they all work out, Lewis is the everyday SS, and we get an outstanding RP for Kepler.

I couldn’t agree more with the post’s supposition that JD is better than many of us couch GMs think he is. Super points made in the post. Thank you. Having said that, which of these statements, considering objectively and dispassionately, do we disagree with: 1. JD is a really, really good baseball player, better than people think, and FOs across the league realize that. 2. The universal DH would make JD more attractive to a larger number of teams. 3. JD, at this point in his career, is a likely (possibly accelerating) descending asset as opposed to an ascending asset. 4. The Twins window in 2022 is more closed than open (see the projected starting staff and the FOs aggressive effort to address it). 5. JD is blocking our most MLB ready talent who’s development through innings and ABs is critical to reopening our window as early as 2023. 6. The $45MM or so we owe him over the next two years could be better applied to the talent we need to accumulate to better compete when our new window reopens. 7. His salary is too high to justify being a full time DH and occasional corner IFer. If the answer is that we realistically can’t disagree with any of these, then the answer is to sell high, trade JD and build for the future. IMHO, I’d move him now off of his excellent second half and his good health; however, I’d understand if we rolled the dice a bit based on how the season starts and his performance, and then reassessed at the trade deadline,

Two players could make all the difference - like I said you need to play the games. But any realistic look up and down the Twins roster, and this is coming from an all-time Twins homer, suggests that a more serious rebuild is needed: Our best player (BB)can’t stay on the field - but is incredible when he does. Our second best player (JP) is really, really good. Our third best player (JD) had a strong second half but his first half, when we really needed it, was simply awful and he is likely a declining, not ascending player. And he is blocking our best prospect. Our RF (MK) can Field but can’t hit. Our 1B (Kiriloff) is essentially a rookie coming off an injury. Our DH (MS) blows hot and cold, but mostly cold. We are solid at catcher, but particularly because of depth, not individual greatness. We really don’t have a regular everyday SS or LF, but I love LA so maybe he can slot in in LF. Our starting staff, as currently comprised or, should I say envisioned, may be on paper one of the league’s worst. Our relief corp looks solid after last year’s second half, but our most reliable reliever, and the leader of the pen, is coming off an injury. So could two players really help this lineup - you betcha. But there are more than two holes. This is why I think the FO is looking to build a solid young core in the next year or two and then spend on the FA or two who could get us over the hump. As per Olney, I couldn’t care less about his opinions. I was only referring to the post in which his rankings were utilized to spur discussion about the Twin’s lineup. I’m optimistic about the Twin’s future if the deep stable of developing talent can continue to improve and I’m willing to use that as my benchmark this season if need be.

Not to many, including myself, would disagree with your sentiments toward Olney. He doesn’t know. So I’m with you on that 100%. However, as I recall, the post was about player rankings. And, based on last year’s performances, it’s hard to argue our beloved Twins have a lot, if any, players among the top ten at their positions throughout the league (although when BB is playing I think he certainly qualifies). This team as currently composed and based on recent levels of play would not be considered among the teams expected to vie for a championship. I wish I were wrong and one never knows - we have to play the games. I’m actually quite bullish on how strongly this team can compete this season. But don’t take my word on this characterization. Look at the actions of the FO. If the FO truly thought we had the positional player strength to be considered near the top of the contenders, they probably would have been more active earlier in the FA market, particularly with the pitching staff. We will be back among the contenders hopefully very soon and for a sustainable period of time as well. That goal is what the actions of the FO and ownership are now all about: deep development depth in the field and on the mound, good young controllable (i.e. inexpensive) players, and more aggressive FA activity (see Donaldson) when the window is opening.

100% agree. The post last week about Buster’s player rankings should have confirmed to us all that we are not one or two players away. The FO’s approach to the pitching staff confirms that the FO understands that. Therefore, one of the keys this year is to develop those six position players with instruction and innings. I hope the FO and the coaching staff is up to the job. Ideally most of those six (and/or Wallner, Sabato, and Palacio too) comprise the core of a solid multi year window starting in ‘23 alongside Buxton, Polanco, Arraez, and a combo of Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt. Lewis may or may not be our SS of the future. But if our outfield for 3-4 years starting in ‘23 ended up being Martin, Buxton and Lewis with Larnach, Celestino and/or Wallner as the reserves, we could be very happy. I hope we win every game this year, but I’m really looking forward to seeing how this group of prospects develop.

Agree with the above comments - great series and great summary. Your work Seth is incredibly helpful and timely given how the FO appears to be looking at the next couple of years. Thank you! I’m wondering if the TD could keep a link of this summary in a quickly noticeable and accessed spot on the front page - particularly if the individual player links provided updated performance metrics? That way it would be easier to track location, development and performance throughout the year.

Seth, I like your order of 1-3, but it really doesn’t matter. All three should be starting for the Twins in ‘23. What is most exciting is that a real core of highly talented, yet low cost controllable core of players is on the near term horizon. It is very possible that Polanco and Buxton are the only true vets on the position player roster as early as ‘23. JD, Max, Sano and possibly Garver all could be moved in the next 12-18 months. Think about the cash that would be available to get one or two key FAs to make a good multi year run if desired or lock up some of our key younger talent with extensions SS is still the one position that is concerning. Defense up the middle is so important and outstanding play at SS is often highly correlated with WS appearances. It doesn’t seem that we confidently have a true solution at SS for the ‘23-24 timetable quite yet. Lots of good possibilities, but none that seem as sure as the other positions in the field. With this core of young talent both in the field and on the bump, the most important roles for this team/franchise are coaching related. I hope Rocco and his team are actually the right guys to see these players max out their potential once they get to the big leagues. With so many down years last season, the jury should still be out on that.

I may be in the minority, but what took so long?

Thanks Nick. Good list. I’m in on your assessments. If I I had one on which to disagree, it would be Max. Above average (even well above) corner outfield play is not sufficient without a stronger bat in today’s MLB. Max had a tough year in ‘21 with falling performances across the key statistical categories. In addition, his ability to hit lefties seems to have deteriorated quite a bit. We are all hoping Max rebounds in ‘22; however, if not, your value assessment will likely be tested by the deadline.