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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Hate to say it, but it might be time to have the Correa chat with Buxton. His value will never, ever be higher than it is right now. Besides, it’s really only fair to him as well. With this team clearly in full rebuild mode targeting ‘28 in reality (given the likely 2027 lockout), Byron deserves the option to be part of a winning team. The suitors should be lined up around the block giving him plenty of options. The sad truth is that we Twins fans will need to get our enjoyment out of watching developing young players in ‘26 and ‘27 (for however much baseball we might actually get to see that year). There should be more than a gleam of sunlight though for ‘28 and beyond. We will need to be patient though. The haul we should get for Lopez, Ryan and Buxton, coupled with a new manager, would help a ton.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    To quote Nate Bargatze’s George Washington: “Nobody knows” Or we could just produce a new sitcom called “Rocco Knows Best”.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Lewis will be tendered - 100%. The question is should he be traded. If Rocco stays, then if I’m Lewis, I think I get my agent to look for some different scenery. He desperately needs a new approach to save what should be a solid MLB career. So trade him. If Rocco goes, then we should not trade Lewis. Let’s see what some other leadership can do for him. Giving Lewis another chance here under a different mentor/coaching regime is reason enough to fire Rocco. Lewis’ option value alone is way greater than the differentiated value Rocco brings to the table for another year (including the comp we’d save by keeping Rocco). Sadly, Ryan is too far gone to be enticed to stay by a Rocco firing - he clearly wants out.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    A really solid take. There have been some positives for sure and those highlighted are pretty much the closest ones. Buxton, Keaschall and Martin have all been a joy to watch. Same with Ryan for the most part, but it’s clear he is mentally checked out and can’t wait to leave the organization. The TDers posting about the depth not meaning much are 100% completely justified: it’s been all hat and no cattle under Rocco’s regime when it comes to establishing our incredibly successful minor league prospects as true major leaguers. There may be possible seventh and eighth positives and they could be the most impactful. Namely, this team has been so bad we might not only luck into the #1 pick and get that SS from USC, but also there really should be no way we keep Rocco. And that means that our improved depth might actually be worth something after all.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Please see my response above. No one said or implied that we would have a shut down pen in ‘26. But a passable pen? More easily doable than any of the others. Besides, on our vaunted recent relief corps you referenced, weren’t there at least a couple of former starters (certainly in the minors) before being converted to relievers (Jax, Varland, and Duran come to mind)?
  6. Nashvilletwin
    What can we expect? 1. Making the playoffs when we have the talent. The Twins had more than enough talent to have made the playoffs the last two years (2024 was an epic collapse). 2. Developing outstanding minor league talent into successful major leaguers. Those are the minimum results that a small/mid market team needs to get out of their manager - develop the cheap homegrown talent and win the window is open. Rocco has failed at both.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    1. I said even that’s saying a lot. 2. One or two of Festa, Raya, Prielipp, Ohl, maybe Bradley. Don’t need them all obviously. 3. Some subset of Funderburk, Sands, Topa, Adam. 4. Odds of finding a cheap, halfway decent FA reliever or two? Even for the Twins, better than Lee or Lewis becoming regular above average infielders (particularly under Rocco) or Emma, Roden, or Outman ever becoming a decent major leaguer. Didn’t mean to get you so upset. Just keeping things real.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    The most likely and easiest to accomplish (and that’s even a stretch) of the listed possibilities is actually the last one - a decent bullpen. A couple of converted starters, a few warmed up leftovers, and a wisely spent $3-5MM would get that job done. The rest are way more difficult. 1. Lee, let’s face it, will never be more than a utility infielder after he holds down the starting SS role in ‘26. 2. Prielipp could be the real deal - but it won’t be in ‘26. He just doesn’t have the ability yet to throw enough innings. 3. We will see about Bradley and, maybe, Abel (both look like pretty big works in progress to be even moderately effective contributors in ‘26). But no one should be betting on Outman or Roden - take the under on both of them. 5. Jenkins should be a stud (but not in ‘26) and the Emma train has left the station - all hat, no cattle. 6. Ah, Royce Lewis. So much hope, so much potential. Sad to say, but his best bet to become a passable major leaguer at this point is a change of scenery. Maybe a new manager in the mold of TK could get more out of him. 6. Unless Pablo is actually hurt badly, both he and Joe will be (and should be) traded. They will never, ever resign with the Twins and so, with the lockout looming, 2026 is their last year with the Twins. Why waste the trade haul we could get on one year of both of them on a struggling team. The bullpen is BY FAR the easiest of these to accomplish. And maybe only because the others have as much chance as a snowball in Hades.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    I will honor the story by attempting a concise thoughtful response. But it is a bit funny to have this article follow “How the Twins Can Spend $30MM in 2026”. It’s not even close. Rocco is not in the same ballpark as any of those other managers. Other than one juiced ball year (with a roster he basically inherited) and one playoff series win, Rocco has consistently gotten less out of his players - individually and as a team - than any of those other managers. The mentioning of injuries as the first excuse is ridiculous. Roster construction? Please. Rocco has had plenty of talent with which to work. His problem has not been the players he’s had; instead, it’s been both developing them and/or getting them to be the best ball players they can be, The author points out three keys for Rocco going forward (one of which is “playoff success” - please insert the obligatory Jim Mora gif here). None of these are nearly as important as being able to transform into true major leaguers the young talent that a small/mid market necessarily must consistently do in order to compete (particularly in this salary cap less MLB environment). Rocco seems like a super nice gentleman. He’s more than likely well liked by the people who know him well. However, it’s time to quit making excuses as to his suitability to be the manager of the Minnesota Twins. The data points and lack of results are all there right in front of all of us.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    The relevant question is where can the Twins SAVE $30MM this offseason? Check out the article on ESPN this morning about the salary cap. The number one way for owners to increase the value of their franchises is via the implementation of a cap. The owners all understand that (and oh, btw, it’s not a zero sum game - the players overall - except for maybe the mega stars - should on the aggregate benefit too). Why do you think the Pohlads didn’t sell while holding out for a higher price? Why do you think some private equity folks were interested in buying minority stakes in the Twins? They are not dumb (except for keeping Rocco, of course). Make no mistake about it. The plan is to cut payroll, build a cadre of cheap, controllable talent, prepare for a long strike in 2027, implement a cap/floor model after the lockout, add one of two solid veteran FAs to reach the floor, solve the TV issues, emerge in 2028-2029 with a contending roster and then sell the franchise for a lot more than they can get currently. The plan is a plain as the noses on our faces. And, yes, it’s a smart plan sorry to say. We all can forget the fallacy of adding to payroll in 2026.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    SWR justing adding to the rationale to trade both Lopez and Ryan this off season…..
  12. Nashvilletwin
    Yeah, I get that sentiment. But the Pohlads are commercial beings. Having Rocco basically destroy another crop of young prospects is not the way to maximize the sale proceeds post the new CBA. Whatever they lose by having to pay both Rocco next year and a new manager will be more than made up in future equity upside (and probably ticket sales with a more successful team). Firing Rocco is the smart financial play as well.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    He’s had plenty of talent to produce better/more competitive results. His teams have invariably, if not consistently, underperformed. He has demonstrably not only been unable to get the most out of his players, but also continue the development of the (baseball industry consensus) top young prospects that he’s received. With a clear rebuild on the way, the surest way to maximize the probability of failure would be to retain Rocco. He’s clearly not the only one who bears responsibility, but he certainly needs to go.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    SWR stays. We will need him after we move Lopez and Ryan (sad, but true). Julien can’t wait to leave. He’s begging to be outrighted to go somewhere else to have new start. Clemens will get a shot here and likely break camp with the team until some of the younger talent gestates a bit more. Besides, who’s going to play first? Sabato? Please….and we aren’t bringing in any FAs worth a plugged nickel. Outman - please, God, no. If ERod can’t beat him out next spring, heaven help us. (As an aside, I have the under on ERod ever being a productive major leaguer). Miranda - no chance.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    Sonny never wanted to stay here. He couldn’t wait to get out of Dodge. He wasn’t overly fond of Rocco. Couldn’t see a future for him personally (i.e. professionally and/or financially) or team wise by staying. Smart guy to get out while the getting was good. Sadly, Ryan is in the same mindset now as well: the team’s outlook is poor, the money and his individual success will be better elsewhere, and Rocco isn’t floating his boat.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    The only math is the lower sale proceeds now (assuming a sale at any reasonable price was even feasible) reinvested over the next three years vs. keeping and selling three years from now (keeping in mind all tax considerations). Given the recent poor financial performance of the franchise (including the tv revenue hit and its yet to be settled future) and the uncertainty inherent in the CBA talks, it’s likely that the latter alternative is a reasonable bet to outperform the former.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    Nope - the Pohlads sell after the new CBA is enacted which could dramatically improve the financial outlook especially for mid market teams like the Twins in particular. They will keep cash costs down for the next two years and then use a stable full of young promising controllable projectable talent as additional value enhancing asset. They tried to sell, but couldn’t get their number. They are now willing to roll the dice on a two-three plan that they think will give them outsized returns vs. their other alternatives.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    An already deep prospect list along with two years of top 1-5 draft picks on the way plus what we get for Ryan, Lopez and possibly Jeffers and Ober: as long as Rocco is gone, things should really be looking up in ‘28 and beyond.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Correct. There is a 0% chance that Ryan or Lopez (or Jeffers or Ober for that matter) are extended/resigned to play for the Twins in ‘28 or beyond. Nada. Zilch. They are all gone. And given major league baseball is unlikely to be played much at all in ‘27, we only have them really for next year - which is essentially a throw away year. Heck, they probably don’t want to sign here anyway. Ryan most certainly wants out as soon as possible. The smart move - strategically and financially - is to trade them this off season. Build for ‘28 both with prospects and financial capacity.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    The bad news: Jeffers, Larnach, Lopez, Ryan and Ober total $49MM. Trading those five and replacing them with minimum $ players nets about $45MM in cash comp savings, leaving just $50MM. They still have to pay some of Correa ($33MM over three years) and will sign a cheap reliever or two. Net, net look for about $65MM next season. The good news: when the new CBA is signed hopefully it has both a hard cap and a hard floor. This helps the Twins on both sides of that result: bigger teams are reeled in and the the Twins will have to spend a lot more $ to get to the league minimum (which will be set higher than many think in order to satisfy the players agreeing on a cap). The really bad news: the Twins will likely stink in ‘26 (and ‘27 for however many games are actually played that season). The really good news: heading into ‘28, the Twins should have an unbelievably talented young, cheap and controllable core both on the field and on the mound AND the team will be forced to augment that core with new FAs required by the new minimum annual spend decreed in the new CBA. Oh, and Rocco should be long gone by then too. The really, really good news: the Pohlads sell the team in ‘28 post the new CBA and TV revenue visibility/resolution. So there truly will be a new beginning So it’s baseball purgatory for two years while we wait for the plan to take shape and hope to emerge. But make no mistake, this is essentially how the plan is going to unfold.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Martin, I love the guy, but he has no clue running the bases. It’s to the point now where it’s almost both comical and predictable. Please get that kid some coaching.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Ryan and Lopez for sure. Those are no brainers. Very likely Jeffers unless they see a need to extend him (which I don’t think they do), although he might be more of a trade deadline type. Also possibly Ober, but they might get more value from him by waiting to see how the first half of ‘26 goes. Essentially anyone who will not be extended and/or will not be on the roster in ‘28. Thus, they give Lewis one more year. Larnach, however, is gone, but probably won’t return much if anything at all.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    100%. What an absolute snooze fest. Sheesh.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Good article with the correct conclusion. But the author kind of buried the lede: namely, the Twins will never, ever resign either Ryan or Lopez. They are gone after 2027 with 100% certainty. And, in Ryan’s case for sure at least, he can’t wait Couple that blinding statement of the obvious with the young, transitioning roster projecting to be non competitive in 2026 and a lockout coming in 2027, that means their two years left of control (and expensive control at that) is really just one year of anticipated futility. So, sadly yes, the author is correct. Ryan and Lopez must be traded. It’s the smart move for sure. However, in order to really maximize the return on those trades likely to be for young, cheap, projectable talent, then the 2nd derivative decision to replace Rocco must also be made; otherwise, a good portion of the value from the trades will be wasted.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Exactly. There is no chance in H E double toothpicks.
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