TwinsDr2021

Agreed, I remember when Berrios, Romero, Graterol, Gonslaves, Thorpe, Enlow, Alcala, Jay, Stewart, Mejia, Jorge just to name a few were going to be the key to sustained success. And how there was a riches of short stop prospects, Lewis, Goron, Javier, Severino, Cavaco, Holland. What I see from the current group is a bunch trade-able prospects, but of course the problem is they are all getting real close or already required to be added to the 40 man roster. I hear a lot of people talking about doing it the Tampa way. And yes they trade stars for prospects (Snell, Archer, Longoria, Shields, etc..) but they also do a great job of internally scouting their farm system and making decisions on their prospects and trading them to get current help, or clear 40 man roster, or re-tool with some younger prospects as to not clog up their 40 man. Example they traded two pitchers to the Twins one on their 40 and one that has to be added at the end of the year for a really good player that will help them this year and then probably won't be with them next year, I would assumed they deemed the two pitchers they traded as one is probably a AAAA pitcher and the other because of only two pitches ends up in the pen, or maybe a starter but will take more time develop thus clogging up the 40. In the end it is a win, win, win for Tampa, help this year, cleared up three 40 man spaces, thus allowing them to possibly trade another good player (or sign) for a few more prospects to reload the farm. Imagine any of the last three years the Twins trading two prospects similar to Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman for a short term rental. First IMO I couldn't see the twins doing that (I mean since they didn't) and imagine the comments on here about how they are giving up future success and two probably cheap, good rotation players.

I think they did good on the players they got, the one criticism I have is the two guys from Tampa require 40 man roster space (one now, one for next year), Which I believe is why Tampa was willing to trade them, they basically cleared 3 spots for next year, while the Twins added one player, thus one less spot. Which means they basically have to cut a pitcher next year that is currently on the 40 this year. As for Gant, having him on the roster this year, mean one less prospect can be added and brought up to evaluate.

My assumption is they would have to be on the 40 man roster, and by my math there is 39 players on that, not sure if any of the players on the 10 day could be moved to the 60 day to open up a few more spots, but my guess is that is one of the reason we aren't seeing any of the AAA relief pitchers in MN, not enough room on the 40.

I tend to agree with you on Lewis, the hard part is I think he has to be put on the 40 this off season, and if he doesn't rake or really prove he will be a major league player, could there be a chance he doesn't or shouldn't be put on the 40 the next year? As for Martin, unless he has to be put on the 40 this offseason, I think next year he starts at AA if he rakes, you move him to AA and decide if he can help the big club and then put him on the 40 (of course if the team is terrible you wait until the offseason)

Just curious of the players I listed for the possible 40 next year, who do you consider to be dead wood? Is your list similar to the names I listed?

IMO the trade deadline comes down to 4 factors. Now, this offseason, 2022 season, and the seasons after that. As of 8/2/2021, it is a high grade, they got prospects for guys that won't do anything this year (meaning they are out of the playoff hunt) and hopefully freed up some to see some young guys. The rest are all incomplete. They have some huge decisions on the 40 man this offseason, and they added more to those decisions by the guys they brought in. 2022, will come down to if they are good next year, and if they are and they need a starting pitcher, would it have been cheaper to keep Berrios, or did that trade give them the extra resources to get somebody else? and after that, who knows, the odds say it won't matter, Berrios wasn't going to sign, and the guys they got won't be stars.

Players I believe would be on the 40 man roster for next season as of now and if nobody was hurt. Pitchers Jorge Alcala, Jordan Balazovic,Charlie Barnes,Beau Burrows ,Edwar Colina,Danny Coulombe ,Randy Dobnak,Tyler Duffey, Jhoan Duran,Luke Farrell,Griffin Jax, Derek Law, Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober,Taylor Rogers, Devin Smeltzer, Cody Stashak, Drew Strotman, Caleb Thielbar, Lewis Thorpe, Edgar García, Mitch Garver,Ryan Jeffers,Ben Rortvedt,Luis Arraez,Willians Astudillo,Josh Donaldson,Nick Gordon,Jorge Polanco,Miguel Sanó,Byron Buxton,Jake Cave,Gilberto Celestino,Max Kepler Alex Kirilloff,Trevor Larnach,Rob Refsnyder,Brent Rooker Guys that need to be added - Royce Lewis, Josh Winder, Jose Miranda, Cole Sands, Joe Ryan (and I don't know what the two from the Blue Jays need to be added.) Alex Colome will more than likely be bought out for 1.25 Juan Minaya - assuming not on the team John Gant - assuming not on the team From my count that is 45 not including the two from the Blue Jays and the three above that will probably be gone. So if they don't trade away a bunch this off season, it looks like they need to cut at least 8 from the guys above to sign another starter, relief pitcher and SS. My guess would be Astudillo, Cave, and six pitchers, Barnes, Burrows, Law, Farrell, Smeltzer or Thorpe, Stashak. Roster with new 40 Man non pitchers Garer, Jeffers, Arraez, Donalson, Polanoc, Sano and FA SS and Miranda?. Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Rooker/Refsnyder Pitchers Maeda, FA, Ober, Smeltzer/Thorpe, Ryan Alcala, FA, Coulombe, Dobnak,Duffey, Jax, Rogers, Thielbar That leaves them 1 catcher (Rortvedt), 1 infielder (Lewis), 2 outfielders (Celestino, Rooker/Refsnyder) in the minors for injuries, and a bunch of pitchers that as of today are hurt or haven't done much or anything in the majors) Seems like the FO has a ton of work in the offseason to figure out a 40 man roster that will get them though next season.

Sorry I wasn't suggesting the offense couldn't compete next year, I was saying the Team as a whole, when you roster including pitching and non-pitching is over half rookies or partial second year players, plus some of the one that aren't are off of injury. Plus the team that was mentioned had zero depth except for more rookies, I guess I could have assumed that triple A would have filled with older vets ready to step in when somebody gets hurt or when one of the rookies needs to be sent down. For example it listed Lewis and Martin and possibly a FA for SS. Doesn't it have to be the opposite way? sign a FA with Lewis (I can't imagine him in MN before next Sept) and Martin as possible backups? and if one of them absolutely force their way on the team, that is awesome. I guess my real point is the FO has to be prepared for injuries and prospects just not being good (Rooker for example at the start of the year), isn't that way they signed Garlick, Refsnyder, and kept Cave or Wade?

I don't think a team that consists of half to over half of its roster being rookies or guys that barely have gotten their feet wet can compete in the Major Leagues. Kirilloff, Austin Martin, Royce Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers, Rortvedt, Larnach, Rooker, Gordon, Celestino, Ober, Barnes, Moran, and all the minor league pitchers mentioned. Not sure how they can go into 22 with complete unknowns at SS, unproven outfielder, unproven DH, and a bench and back up players of rookies. Also have 60% of the rotation of pitches coming off injury and or/rookies. Then a bullpen of two vets and bunch of absolute question marks. If this is the plan for 22, I believe the front office should be fired and good luck selling fans on this, because if those pitches fail at the expected probability -Balazovic, Duran, Winder, Ryan, Strottman, Vallimont, Woods-Richardson, and Sands, they are in for another long rebuild.

I agree, I think Pineda is a guy that they will try to bring back, and it was going to be way easier to do by keeping him this year, he seems like a guy that would be easier to sign while being here then trying to bring back in the off season, (Cruz seems like a guy that will give the Twins a chance to sign him again next year if the Twins look decent)

IMO the idea of planning on Ober being given a spot in the rotation next year is gross, he is on a inning and pitch count this year, and he will be again next year, if we are to believe you can't make a big jump in innings. I am not saying he can't compete for a spot and actually win a spot, but if the Twins FO right now is penciling him to be one of the first 5 starters next year that is terrible. (Same thing with Dodnak)

Great and probably true Since and including 2018 he has pitched 219.1 total innings and never more than 90.1 in one season. With the way the Twins bring pitchers along (innings count) he is 3 to 4 years away from being a guy expected to pitch 150-175 innings. and obviously Seattle is also bringing him along slowly because he got those 27 innings in 8 starts. I would love to have in a trade, but also want George Kirby and another guy included. or Hancock and Julio Rodriguez, I am shooting for the stars. I think fans that are ok settling for one guy that is in A ball for Berrios is absolutely crazy talk.

which free agent is as good as Berrios and won't expect a contract of more than one year at a high salary? My thoughts are every FA signed means one of the players on the list I provided is gone for probably nothing? Seems like they are doing the same as they did with the 7 left handed corner outfielders they had. First I wouldn't trade Berrios, I would go out and try to sign one of these Greinke/Verlander,/Scherzer or maybe Morton on a 1 or two year contract. Then I would try to package a couple of the 21 young pitchers above to a better or closer young pitcher (maybe Ober/Duran/Thorpe), then see how much DeSclafani's market is or a Joe Ross type. Then the rotation looks like Berrios Greinke/Verlander/Scherzer/Morton Ross Then the last two spots would be Winder for 4 innings, Smeltzer for 3 Ryan for 3, Barnes for 3, Strotman for 3. take all the rookies and move them all around, but none of this start but be on a low pitch count, low innings and fingers crossed on how far they go and blow the pen up when they only go three, It shouldn't take that long figure out who the real pitchers are, who ends up in the pen, and we needs to go back to the minors.

Maeda, and running every pitcher on the 40 man though the rotation. I see no reason at signing any free agent pitcher that costs anything next year if they have trade Berrios, why even bother bringing in another Happ or Shoemaker, when all they end up doing to filling the 40 man with more pitchers. Pitchers that will be on the 40 next year, Balazovic, Barnes, Colina, Dobnak, Duran, Jax, Ober, Smeltzer, Strotman, Thorpe, Winder, Sands, Ryan, with Vallimont and Enlow as possible pitchers added. Relief pitchers, Thielbar, Stashak, Farrell, Duffey, Burrows, Alcala, Rogers? So it seems they have enough pitchers for next year, most are complete unknowns which means good luck in 2022.

So a Berrios for a guy with 27 innings in High A, with only 27 K's and 12 walks? Thanks but no thanks

I for one was saying trade one of those two guys for pitching (I mean I wasn't commenting on the site last year but I was reading it and telling every friend that would listen) The had a huge abundance* of left handed corner outfielders. I was a big fan of Baddoo, but in no way seen this coming this early in his career. The scouting reports said he could be this kind of player further down the line. *They had 7 (Rosario, Kepler, Wade, Cave, Laranch, AK and Baddoo), so far Rosario left for nothing, Baddoo got taken for nothing, Wade was traded (I liked this) for nothing, Cave will probably go for nothing at the end of the year, Laranch and AK have played well enough to be considered next year, but are still not guarantees, which leaves Kepler. That IMO isn't a good job of roster management.

In those those three years Schoop has made 14.2 million with a WAR of 5, and Arraez 1.2 million with a WAR of 4.6, So I will take Arraez every time in a situation like this. And in my mind will say they extra 13 was used on Donaldson, and not the horse crap pitchers they brought in.

Well that is even better only 80 guaranteed for 7 years, way less than I was thinking, But IMO if they can't come together on incentives, it because Buxton is asking for very low incentives with big paybacks, I would think if he is willing to sign for his prime years of 28-35, he is looking for the possibility to double that 80 amount, for something silly like if he plays 100 games in one of the first 2 or 3 years it guarantees the last years of the contract, but obviously this is just me speculating. I can't imagine if they are only 10-20 million a part on incentives over 7 years why the Twins just wouldn't cover that and call it a day. Me personally I would rather give him more per year for less years than spreading it out over more years, but again just opinion.

Can't argue your points, IMO anybody that was watching the Twins minor league system seen, Baddoo, Wade, Kirilloff, and Laranch (with Cave, Rosario and Kepler in the bigs), that is 7 left handed outfielders coming to a point in the road. It seems like the FO could have been a bit more proactive in clearing up that log by packaging a couple of them up a few years ago to help in other areas. I get the reason they choose Cave, he was more of a sure thing while waiting for AK and Laranch on a team competing. I am not disappointed they traded Wade, just the timing of it.

I completely understand what you are saying, I am just of the opinion that if the Twins want him and they want to sign him now you make an offer he can't refuse. If the Twins truly want him they have to believe the injuries have been freak and won't continue and he will continue in his prime like he has when he has played the last few years. They could negotiate based on other players and tell him how much he has been injured and how his career WAR is only 11.1, is that going to get him or is that going to get him to bet on himself? I don't think either of us know that answer. To be honest I am not sure there is another player like him, maybe going way back it could be Eric Davis, when he played he was awesome, but man he could never stay healthy either, and if anybody believes that could be him going forward, you absolutely don't commit any long term money his way. Plus my original post said 5/100 with incentives that could get him to 135-150. not a guarantee of 135-150, sure maybe 100 million is too much guaranteed money (but it is not my money and I could care less about the Pohlads money) but it is sure to draw his attention and would be hard for him to say no.

I agree, and I would assume the major league coaches are better than the ones in St. Paul. Also I think he needs to be up to really evaluate him on where and what he plays next year. Meaning if he can't make the necessary adjustments this year, the team needs to have a different plan then him starting in the Twins outfield and make him earn his way back up.

Trout 37, Springer 23, heyward 23.5, Upton 23, Myers, 22.5, Betts 22.5. Blackmon 21.3, McCutchen 20, Pollock 18, Fowler 16.5, Bellinger 16.1, Brantley 16, Ozuna 16, Cain, 16, Castellanos 14.1, Yelich 14, Marte 12.5 Where does Buxton seeing himself fit into that group? If I am him my absolute floor is Fowler/Ozuna and my cap is just north of Springer. So pay me my floor give me a chance to get to my ceiling. Also IMO he has been a top 5 player when healthy basically since 2019. Also I am good with you and many, many others having a different opinion than mine, that is what makes it great talking about things, so there really is no need demanding others to show anything or attack them. your could have left out the last two lines of your reply and made the same point.

I guess I look at it as twins piss away between 5 and 15 million a year on guys like, Fernando Rodney, zach Duke, Jason Castro, Phil Hughes, Schoop, Perez, Bailey, Avila, Happ, Colome types; so yes they won't get those guys if he isn't healthy so they will have to go another step lower on the FA list

From ESPN - He leads the Twins this year in (2.9) WAR while only playing 27 games, he is also 33rd in all of baseball. Lead the Twins in 2020 (1.9) while only playing 39 games and was 24th in all of baseball. Was 5th on the Twins in 2019 (3.1) while only playing 87 games and was 68th in baseball. Meaning when healthy is a top 5 player in the game and should be paid like one, I completely understand he hasn't been healthy very often, but first it isn't my money so giving a potential top 5 player 100 million doesn't bother me and if he meets the incentives he would be worth 135-150. Secondly the team can insure the crap out of him, so it really doesn't cost that much and a sunk cost of 20 million shouldn't affect the Twins payroll all that much.

Agreed based on these 3, 5/100 plus incentives up to someplace between 125-150 seems like a legit offer.