TwinsDr2021

Are we 100% sure Larnach will start next year with the Twins? His audition started off well but in July he has been brutal (.205, .279, .295) if this would have been just about any other year he would be back in the minors. Don't get me wrong I think his future is bright, but writing his name in pen as a starter next year is dangerous, because if he hits like this you will need a back up plan and like Mike said there really isn't one in the minors right now, so that means most older cast off replacements.

Yup, I want a Aroldis Chapman, James Shield, Chris Sale type of trade, even a Gerrit Cole, Greinke, Verlander trade.

As much as I hate to say it (threw up a bit in my mouth) Colome has pitched his way into being a mid relief pitcher for a good team, and could bring back a flyer on a guy in A ball. He has been good in July (2.35 in 7.2 innings), was great in May (1.74 in 10.1 innings), and only gave up runs in 4 of 11 games in July and if you take away the disaster again Baltimore his ERA would be under 4. I am not saying he should be pitching late in a game for any team, but he might help out a team early in the game.

Really wasn't trying to be negative on Cavaco, was trying to imply he is the type of player the prospect list love, 1st round choice, Young, and plays short stop,

Sorry I was trying to say of course teams are willing to pay a high price for Rogers. All they have to do is give up a pitcher with a huge arm that hasn't translated into actually being a good pitcher. The Twins and the fans will love the trade because they/we will believe he will be the next ace of the staff. If the Twins year hadn't gone the way it did, and Rogers was available from another team and the price was Vallimont and Severino, I would think that is a no brainer trade, you get Rogers for 1 1/2 and the ability to evaluate him and possibly sign him longer. That seems like what Houston did, I am guessing they figured Alcala would ultimately end up in the pen and Celestino probably in the majors some day, but neither were going to be all stars so they took the sure thing (or almost) over the hope and fingers crossed approach, and so far it has worked for them. The trade happened July 27, 2018, it has been three years and the Twins haven't gotten much if anything out of it. Alcala was pretty decent in 2020, but he didn't even pitch in a game that gave him a chance of a hold.

Sadly looking at the updated prospect list at least from the sportingnews, none of the contenders have the top 5- 10 overall prospect that I would require for Berrios. If I am giving Berrios and his 1 1/2 of control and the option to negotiate with him, I want a sure fire major league player, somebody like, Jimenez, Torres, Robles, Kopech, Buehler, Bichette not a bunch of players to fill out the prospect lists. Also I agree with you I don't want any pitcher that is already a relief pitcher for Berrios or Rogers, the odds that a starter they get will end up being a relief pitcher anyway.

Of course they would, do what Houston did in the Pressly trade, trade a pitcher with a huge arm that hasn't translated into being a good pitcher. The Twins and the fans love it because he will be the next ace of the staff, and the team that gets Rogers actually gets a proven major league relief pitcher, for basically however long they want him to be on the team. Trade him to SF and him and his brother could play together for years

It is not surprising with Kirilloff and Laranch staying in the majors this year. Sadly I think going into 2022, Balazovich and Lewis (10 first round short stops drafted will probably push Lewis down until he proves he is healthy and is playing well) will switch places. And I don't see any Twins jumping up on the list because it seems most of the Twins prospects are too old except Cavaco and Urbina and they don't seem to be doing anything.

Anything less than trying to compete in 2022 is reason for termination. We were promised they were going to do things the right way and have sustained success. With this year and rebuilding next year means they would have failed. But with that said if that means trading Buxton and/Berrios and using the saved money to put together a solid pitching staff and adding a solid outfielder I am OK with it, but trading them for prospects years away because the 40 man is loaded with prospects that may or may not amount to anything and washed up pitchers they hope to bring back to glory, then thanks but no thanks.

I like most of what you said, but IMO those pitchers are not tremendous depth, they are major crapshots. Thor coming back from TJ, 4 rookies and as of today only one has pitched more than a 1/3 of an inning in the majors, and Maeda. Going into this year they had, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Dobnak, Ober, Berrios, Pineda, Maeda, Happ and Shoemaker, which in theory is way more depth. I do like those guys as the added to depth to a Rondon, Maeda, Thor, and then all those guys filling in 4/5.

Yes, and with him added to another player maybe they can get a better prospect returned the trade.

I will also add to my previous post, of the top 25 ERA leaders this year, only Brandon Woodruff(24), Chris Bassitt(25), deGrom (26, mostly because of injury), Davish (25 -Japan), and Charlie Morton (24) weren't pitching in the majors by age 23. So IMO if you minor league pitching prospects aren't ready for the majors by 23, you can assume you aren't getting a top of the rotation arm. Which means Jordan Balazovic needs to be up very, very soon. Edit- you can actually go to the top 50 and only added the following who weren't pitching in the majors before age 24- Nick Pivetta(24), Sean Manaea(24), Lance Lynn(24), Yusei Kikuchi(28), Luis Castillo(24), Anthony DeSclafani(24), Merrill Kelly(30), Jordan Montgomery(24)

Graterol was 20 Alcala - 23 Thorpe - 23 Smelzer - 23 Mejia - 23 Romero - 23 Gonsalves - 23 Stewart - 23 Duffey - 24 Dobnak - 24 Duran is 23, and probably would have been up. Jordan Balazovic is 22, Canterino - 23 Enlow - 22 Winder, Sands, Colina, Vallimont, Burrows, Moran are all already 24, Barnes 25, Cano 27. It isn't like they waited too long on calling some of them up, it is more like they just weren't that good, or maybe held onto them to long to get any value, the next wave are basically all 24 or older Berrios already had 400 innings by that time.

I believe Puckett was baseballs first 3 million dollar player. 3 years 9 million dollars, remember the good ole days.

I think it peculiar best I didn't do a good enough explaining my point. Nelson Cruz wasn't signed as a player to sustain success into the 2020's, so his signing and continued signings have a been a huge success, but both the Maeda trade and Donaldson trades were made with the idea they could continue being in at the top of their division for the foreseeable future, and less than half way though their contracts, getting rid of them proves they failed at continued success, that is all I am saying. (and yes somebody else pointed it out with Lewis, I was referring to 19.20,21,22, and sure I hope he is up next year but in reality 2023 looks like it will be the real start of his major league career and that is if he has no set backs in his recovery or struggles when he gets back to playing) Imagine if this season went a little different, Buxton, Garver, Pineda, didn't get hurt or missed less time, (Dobnak stayed the same) and the 2020's pitching free agents were average or at least not a complete embarrassment( Happ, Shoemaker, Colome) and the Twins were right in the thick of wild card or even the division, would everybody still want they to gut the major league team for a rebuild? I mean the free agents would still be free agents next year, Buxton, Berrios and Rogers would still be the following year, and Donaldson will still be on track to make 21,21 and 16 the next three years. And that is really my point this FO isn't going to bail on what they have been trying to build since they got here and that is sustained competitiveness, one freak year isn't going to change that, the haven't mortgaged the future for rentals and they aren't going to mortgage a season or more to rebuild, because that will have proved they have failed at sustained competitiveness,.

I like your thinking on a starting arm and bullpen piece, but we should also be realistic, Yelich was much better and younger than Kepler, and his return was two pitchers (high prospects) and two hitters. (in Kepler's best year he barely made the top 75 players in WAR, from espn including pitchers) IMO a fair return is a solid almost guarantee bullpen guy with lots of years of control, a starting pitchers that is close but only projects as a 4/5 starter, or an absolute lottery ticket, a young guy with a cannon of a arm, or some super toolsy young guy that has quite figured it out.

IMO that is why I don't see them trading Berrios, it admits that the FO decisions have been failures, the trade to get Maeda, signing Donaldson, not doing more to improve the team at the deadline the last 3 division championships, it was my understanding the lack of moves at the deadlines were so they sustain success going forward, not have a down year and trash that plan and go back to selling the fans on hope two, three or four years down the line. If that plan was to rebuild in 2022, in 2019 they could have traded Lewis, Graterol, Javier, Rooker, Gordon, Thorpe, Enlow, Gonsalves, Baddoo, Urbina, Cavaco, Jax and Blakenhorn (which is like half of their top 25 prospects for 2019) for two of the following 3 Marcus Stroman, Zack Greinke, Zac Gallen, And been in no worse off then they are right now. I get Lewis would have felt like it hurt, but basically getting little to nothing out of him for the next 3 to 4 years, that pain would have went away. Remember when people on here were talking about how the bad the Chapman for Torres trade was for the cubs, even though the cubs won the world series? It probably hurt pretty bad when Torres was on fire in 18 and 19, but that sting probably has wore off quite a bit the last few years.

Ronny Mauricio (20 year old that seems to be ranked on athleticism, his minor league numbers don't scream future major league player, low power and low OBP) and Matt Allan (20 year old kid with 10 minor league innings) do nothing for me, both seem to be years away from contributing the major league team. Tylor Megill seems like a Twins type pitcher high pitch counts mid amount of innings, Robert Dominguez is 19 and has 5 minor league innings, so an absolute lottery ticket. If the Twins played on plugging Megill right into the rotation, they would need a plan to replace him if he doesn't live up to expectations, but giving him a start every 5th day the rest of the year should help in evaluating him. I guess I would be a no on these trades, Megill, one of the young guys and Vientos, would be more to my liking.

Hicks had a two really good years (17-3.9 WAR/18-4.4 WAR), he only played in 88 and 137 games those years, has averaged 88 games a year (excluding last year) and hasn't been that good the last three years. I mean he is still a ton better than John Ryan Murphy. The Yanks signed him to a pretty large contract that I am sure they would love to get out of. The Twins traded from an area of strength for an area of need and it back fired. On this topic I am good with trading Kepler, I think he is just above average MLB outfielder and with Larnach and Kirilloff seems redundant.

I would like to point out or remind people, there is the 40 man roster to factor in when trading players. If they trade Berrios, and get one major league player and two prospects for example, that is a easy swap on the 40 man for the major league player, but if either of the other two need to be added to the 40, that starts the domino affect on other prospects in the system that need to be added to the 40 man. So I see like to no chance of them trading Berrios and Buxton this deadline, maybe one at the deadline and one in the off season. As for Rogers, if they trade him I see a A ball type of player coming back that wouldn't need to be added for a few years. I am torn on how good of job this FO has done managing the 40 man, I have examples where the hang onto pitchers(vets) too long before cutting them loose, and examples when they should be bringing guys up to get a look see. I also see them doing a good job of bringing in expendable arms and running them though.

THIS!

IMO, he wasn't a good manage the past two seasons either, he was bailed out by the team setting the home run record and last season he was bailed out playing the a weak national league schedule. He made the same exact mistakes the last two years as he has this year, the difference being that the lineup in 2019 was filled with players that could go big fly at anytime and Odo and Perez starting out absolutely on fire, last year by Maeda and basically a lock down bullpen.

I am not sure how what I mentioned mortgages the future or in anyway says go for it for one year. I said sign Rodon, trade for younger starter with some years left of control, try to get a young fireballer to put in the pen, keep Berrios and Buxton next year to make a run, and if injuries happen or the young guys you want on the team fail (as do I, but if they fail there will be no rebuilding for many years), you can trade the free agents to be, you would have what you want in young guys replenishing and still get prospects for them. If trading larnach, Lewis and Miranda ruins the future, it says allot about the evaluations of the Twins system. and to most novice or casual fans, the Twins in no way went for it in their 3 division championships, who did they trade for at the deadline last year? Certainly not and of these Mike Clevinger,Caleb Smith, Mike Minor,Robbie Ray,Jonathan Villar or others. Who did they trade for the other two? But reality we are just talking over each other, so I will say good bye to this conversation.

You are 100% correct not ever fan would like those moves. But every fan was basically told the last 3 division championships that they were not going to throw away their future by trading prospects for short term game because this was going to be a sustainable winning team, and within 3 years the talk is about a rebuild with all the prospects in the minors? You are suggesting that Laranch, the guy with an OPS of .716 and K'ing at a rate 37.7% is un-tradeable for really good young controllable pitcher? I really, really like him but the odds say he is going to be closer to Kepler and Rosario then All-star outfielder. Also are we still pretending that Lewis is a top 25 prospect? Going into this year only 1 of the major three (MLB, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus) had him in the top 25 and going into next year he will continue to drop as he gets older and will have to prove it after coming off the injury. Again not trying to be negative with Lewis but he will be 23 (next June) coming off a major injury, so the assumption will be maybe he sees the majors at the end of the 2022, hopefully is solid in 2023, but no real expectation of him being better than average before 2024, and Miranda prior to this year really hadn't shown he was a major league regular in the minors and I not ready to say the 300 at bats this year are going to make me forget about the 1400 others in the minors. I will say this I completely understand and respect your opinion. I and others were saying something similiar about trading Romero, Gonsalves, Gordon, Jay, Stewart, Javier and a few others a few years ago to help the team out, and people said that can't be done they are the future, how did that work out?

IMO doing what you are saying is the FO is admitting that everything they have done to this point was a failure. Signing Donaldson (paying a guy, then eating money because all the other moves they made didn't work), Not being able to extend Buxton or Berrios, trading Graterol, not trading Romero, Gonsalves and multiple other prospects that haven't helped this team. Even drafting in Lewis in 2017, since he also will not have helped the team for 7 possibly 8 years. Garver will be 32 and a UFA in 24 why not trade him now as well? Larnach, Kiriloff, Polanco, Garver, Arraez, Lewis, and Miranda in your lineup, along with Duran, Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, Ober, and Barnes What if any of these hitters slump in 2022 or take a few years to develop, does that push 23 to 24 or beyond? The odds that any of the pitchers you listed turn out to be solid rotation guys is low and you are talking about a team relying on them. I am not saying that the twins shouldn't be tearing down and starting over, what I am saying is this front office shouldn't be the ones doing that, if it has came to that point they should be GONE. They were given quite a bit of talent and prospects and they would have basically screwed that up.