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TwinsDr2021

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  1. TwinsDr2021
    Again I am going to point out what the original author wrote. "It’s a commonly held maxim that 40 fWAR gives you a pretty consistent opportunity for October baseball. It’s a pretty basic tenet of roster construction." I guess IMO the original premise was putting together roster that had an opportunity to play October baseball not a roster to win the world series. So the need to prove that is how other teams got to around 40 fWAR is kind of irrelevant in my mind, based on this article. So with a offense/defense at 24.8, my simple math that puts needing a pitching staff at just over 15. with the current roster is short about 4, getting two midtier starting pitchers gets you around 40. Will that guarantee anything, not at all, but it is one view of constructing a roster that probably will compete for the playoffs. As currently constructed based on this logic, either the offense or pitching staff is going to have to really exceed expectations, how often does that happen with a dozen or so pitchers with little or no experience? (I don't know) To be fair I get your points, just not sure how they fit with this premise.
  2. TwinsDr2021
    Isn't the claim mid-tier and not top FA's? This is taken directly from the article "The Twins’ biggest mistake this offseason was not tapping into the mid-tier starting pitching free agent market, to raise the floor or the rotation. "
  3. TwinsDr2021
    what does Simmons missing 7 games have to do with this? Isn't it the FO that allowed Happ to pitch 98 innings with an ERA of 6.77, Shoemaker to pitch 60 innings with a 8.06 ERA, Jax to pitch 82 innings with a 6.37 ERA, Dobnak to pitch 50 innings with a 7.64 ERA, didn't this FO bring in Colome and Roblies? Isn't it this FO that left with twins with Cave as the back up center fielder if and when Buxton was going to get hurt? Yes the Twins suffered injuries, but isn't it the front office job to have a plan in place for injuries? As for the injuries to basically all of the pitching prospects, I don't know but was that unique to the Twins or did it happen all over baseball? (IMO, but no data to back this up, I think it might have to do with the pitching philosophy of going all out every pitch for 3-5 innings, after missing 2020 season that might have had a negative effect on these young arms, most of which hadn't pitched a ton of innings prior to 2020, compared to what somebody like Berrios had pitched in the minors. 30.2, 103.2, 140, 166.1 (some where on the same path as him, but 2020 messed that up)
  4. TwinsDr2021
    IMO the biggest mistake was the FO not giving the fans an inkling of a plan. Leaving us to speculate on what is going on, the fans that aren't fans or are skeptical of this FO complaining (with facts, predictions, history. etc..) and the fans of this FO with explaining (with facts, predictions, rationale and hope, lots and lots of hope). So coming off a couple of playoffs, followed by a season from hell, we have no real idea what is going to happen in 2022, and that IMO is the biggest mistake.
  5. TwinsDr2021
    Gonsalves put up pretty much identical numbers at AA when he was 21, if you take out the last 4 starts for Romero in 2017 when he apparently dealing with something, his numbers at AA where not that different and he was 22. Mejia's numbers at AA in 2015 at 22 weren't all that far off (less K's), at age 23 Meyer was pitching pretty well at AA, The rest were mostly just names, high draft picks, etc.. but also pitchers that were supposed to be part of a Twins future. I also can agree Winder will probably end up a better major league pitchers than the rest of them, my initial point was those 54 innings were just that - 54 innings at AA when you are 24. I hope he steps it up in spring training is really good for the 100-120 innings he will pitch this year and be a spring board to a successful major league career and isn't just another name the fans were dreaming would be part of a twins future rotation.
  6. TwinsDr2021
    Thanks and good work, they seem old for where they are ranked, I would hope to see players like this a little bit younger, but good arms no matter their age are a positive.
  7. TwinsDr2021
    So we are going to throw out those 4 games, velocity and command drop, not worry about it and say he is can't miss? Again I like Winder and think he will be a solid major league pitcher, but isn't using 54 innings over two year considered SSS? The guy is 25 and has no success above AA when history shows the majority of good pitchers have at least had some success or time in the majors by age 25. With that being said I hope he pitches to the most of his limited innings at the major league level this year with a bunch of success.
  8. TwinsDr2021
    I like Winder and probably wouldn't trade him, but you just compared 54.2 innings to a whole bunch more. Kind of cherry picked there, how about comparing AAA numbers?
  9. TwinsDr2021
    You are correct 24 isn't old, but he only pitched 23 innings last year, after pitching none in 2020, Having him be a starter next year, what will his innings be capped at? So his age 24 season will be stretching him out, his age 25 season you could expect with no set back to be up around 120 innings maybe? Why can't you do they same thing in MN in the bullpen and in 2023 as a possible starter if he has proved he can pitch more innings. I am just sick of listening how great the Twins prospects are, but at the same time having them in the minors and people wanting them to stay in the minors. I was saying Graterol should have been up in 2018, the dude can throw 100 why waste those pitches in the minors if he will probably end up in the pen anyway. The Same with Canterino, if he stuff is so great (which I believe it is) why not have him pitching against the best. If he has the stuff to become a starter it will work out.
  10. TwinsDr2021
    Meyer, May, Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Thorpe, Melotakis, Slegers, Meija, all Twins prospects and besides May what have the Twins gotten for them? Couldn't trade Romero, Gonsalves or Thorpe in the late teens, because they were going to be the next set of twins starters, This is why people are OK with trading some pitching prospects.
  11. TwinsDr2021
    Can we stop comparing the Twins prospects to Hall of Famers. Martin will be 23 in March, Yount was playing his 6th season at 23, and was two years away from an MVP year. Would I trade Martin, sure, but it would have to be be for Major League pitcher with at least two years of control, or for a pitching prospect like Max Meyer.
  12. TwinsDr2021
    Happy New Year!
  13. TwinsDr2021
    Liked the article, I think the grades seem a bit high for the pitchers. Ryan pitched 26.1 innings, to me that has to be incomplete grade, Ober was good, but compared to other rookie pitchers in the league the grade kind of seem silly. For example - Alek Manoah pitched 19 more innings, had a better ERA in the same amount of starts, then compare him to Trevor Rogers, Luis Garcia, Shane McClanahan or Anderson. To me the last 3 are A's, Monaoh, A-, Ober seems more like a B,
  14. TwinsDr2021
    He is 24, so I don't see the need to have him stretched out in the minors. I would tell him you are going to be the 4th inning relief pitcher, and he he succeeds there move him later in the games, an/or start giving him a chance for 2 innings.
  15. TwinsDr2021
    To me the easy answer is 1 or 2, because isn't that normally what happens? Unless we are counting 5 September starts? I see Ryan holding his own, and Winder or Balazovic being able to do what Ober did last year. After that I don't see any other starters being up long enough. and probably a relief pitcher will establish they are a major league relief pitcher, so that is maybe a third. I am kind of confused on the Duran hype besides the fact he will be 24 in about a week , he has pitched 16 innings the last two years, and prior to that was he was more about potential and less about results.
  16. TwinsDr2021
    I think in 2022 the Twins will start seeing some real results of the trade, but IMO, you can grade it along the way. 2019 - F, 2020 - C -, 2021 - D, these grades don't mean it was a bad trade, it just means they haven't returned any or much results for the Twins so far. 22 and beyond could and should be B or better, meaning in the end it was/will be a successful trade.
  17. TwinsDr2021
    "The Plan", not sure I see a plan. IMO we all seen what was happening last year, and most on here was begging to start the establishing couple of SPs, they didn't unless they thought Ober, Jax, Barnes and Albers were possibly the future, it seems to me they started the retool last year trading away Berrios but forgot the second part getting pitchers up, unless of course bringing up Ryan for 5 starts count? So IMO this is year 2, if things don't work out there will be a year 3, and maybe that is the plan to save money for hitting then? Don't know, and that probably isn't a bad idea, I mean that is not what they have been saying for 5 years, but....
  18. TwinsDr2021
    IMO, the best thing that could happen for the Twins is another short season, either Covid or lockout. Run a few young pitches out there that get hot and don't have to sustain it over more than 8 - 10 starts. Make the Wild card win a game or tow and look like geniuses.
  19. TwinsDr2021
    Looks like they road hot starts from Perez, 7-2 3.71 ERA on June First 1st, Odo 10-2 2.24 ERA on June 16th, Berrios 8-2 3.14 ERA on June 7th, Gibson 6-2 3.75 ERA on June 2nd. Pineda struggled a bit at the beginning and then had a decent run until, well..... If you look at their ERA's in June and what they finished with something was different after June, well except for Berrios his ERA stayed about the same. They road Duffey, May, Littell, Harper and Rogers in the pen.
  20. TwinsDr2021
    I tend to agree they aren't doing a tear down and rebuild, they are trying to re-tool on the fly, hoping the pitching prospects work out. I tend to believe they have kind hoped to do the tear down, but were given a team much better than expected and had to change their plans, and now are kind of stuck between the rock and the hard place. First they kind of have a 40 man roster issue, so trading away vets means bring much younger prospects back and trading away the only real FA signing and eating part of the contract means that was a complete failure. Covid and all the injures last year contribute to the situation as well. So they are where they have been the last few years, supplement a better than average team until more prospects are ready.
  21. TwinsDr2021
    Continuing to say this over and over doesn't make it true, it has been shown over and over again the cupboard wasn't depleted. And hasn't it been this FO that has been drafting power hitting tool only? Rooker, Larnach, Sabato, etc...
  22. TwinsDr2021
    Montas is controlled though 2023 (that is two years) , Pablo Lopez though 2024, Sixto Sanchez though 2026, Max Meyer though whenever since he hasn't pitched in the majors. So those wouldn't be considered 1 year, but Bassitt is a free agent after next year, which means one year, and if the Twins aren't competing it actually would be a half year, since they would trade him at the deadline. Luis Castillo like Montas is controlled though 2023, but if you can't get him to extend he would probably be traded at the next deadline as well, because he would have move value then the next year deadline. I am not giving up one of the top pitching prospects for 1 year of anybody, for two years I would be will to move a Duran or Canterino, plus a position player or two.
  23. TwinsDr2021
    Just to clarify Ynoa is 23 and will be 24 in May Ynoa debuted at 21 in 2019 and pitched in 3 innings, pitched 21.2 innings in 2020 and pitched 91 last year with a 1.5 WAR (which is good) but I wouldn't say established quite yet, but he could be on his way The Twins also wouldn't have gotten the 2.4 WAR from Cave his first two years or 2019 Zack Littell, and then the Twins let him and 5 years of control go.
  24. TwinsDr2021
    Is it possible to negotiate with a player prior to trading for him? If so, I would probably do the Bassitt trade as you listed. If not no way I am giving up anybody in Col A or B (because no chance they take all of Donaldson's contract), and currently they don't really have a replacement for Kepler, they aren't swapping contracts for Sano, and Arraez should be able to bring back a better player/contract, so it would could down to the bottom half of Col C, and if the Twins aren't good again and have to trade him at the deadline, they probably couldn't get back equal value to what they traded for him. So basically I am not trading for any pitcher with 1 year left of control, unless that pitcher comes along with somebody that has 3 or more. Last year would have been the year to trade for a pitcher with one year of control to go along with Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, Happ and Dobnak, probably won't have worked but I wouldn't have been upset if we lost a prospect because they attempted to shore up the pitching staff with a lineup seemingly ready to win.
  25. TwinsDr2021
    This makes sense if you are talking about a complete rebuild for 2024-25 and in that case why not add Donaldson and Maeda to the list, because you can't trade all those guys for players that need to be on the 40 or most of the 40 will be minor league guys, so you will be trading them for really young guys that won't need to be on the 40 man for at least a year or maybe two or more (that is why the yanks traded Cave to the Twins, they got a guy with upside and won't require a 40 man spot for years). And if this FO is going to a complete rebuild, I am out on them and the Twins.
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