TwinsDr2021

Good to know, I assumed they only represented the players on the 40 man roster. It would seem like a conflict of interest of the union to negotiating on their behalf, knowing the extra money that goes to the minor league players would be coming out of the union members money, when in reality most will never see the majors. I agree that minor league players are way under paid, but moving ~200 minor leagues salary close to 50K, would cost each team around 8 million, and you know that will be coming out of the players payroll and not the owners profit.

IMO, he has exceeded my expectations of player signed at 17, he has played in the majors for 7 years (8 if there is a season this year), has hit 161 homers, has a career OBP of .329, SLG of .491, and 8.4 career WAR. With that said, after making the majors he has not my expectations, his .238 is a bit low, his age 25 season was an embarrassment, and he is too streaky. After his first 3 years in the majors I was expecting him to be a 2.5 and up WAR player, and he has only got there once in the last 4 years. I will say that if we got his performance out of all of the international signings and high draft picks, the Twins would more than likely be good to great every year.

They will probably do something like this, thus making it even less likely to attract fans.

Honest question, why would the union care about minor league pay? Most of those guys will never pay into the union and the union's sole job is to get the absolute most it can for it union members. As far as competitive balance, baseball seems like it has the most parity of of all the sports, I could be wrong, but the NBA has about 4 - 8 teams that you know will win the title. In the NFL most teams repeat being in the playoffs, minus a couple of new ones. IMO Tom Verducci is close to 100% correct on everything but the pitch clock and shifts. I don't seeing the pitch clock doing much if anything to help the fans experience, and I think instead of eliminating the shift there needs to be some rules on the extent of the shifts. For example the SS or 2B has to be within a arm length of second base, and maybe have a line put in the outfield that a infielder can't start the play behind. Just tossing out ideas. But as I mentioned before, the players need to be worrying about how the lower revenue teams seemly won't touch a multiple year contract of players over 30, basically threaten the end of middle tier starting pitchers, because why pay big money for a pitcher that only pitches 5 innings? Finally the idea that starting pitchers can be kept in the minors until they are 23/24/25 years old, almost eliminating completely a large multiple year FA contract. IMO the players looking for a floor or the share of more money, means the stars will just get bigger contracts, wouldn't smart teams still try to keep costs down for say 23 players of the roster, and players 24-26 get the huge contracts?

OK, that makes sense, but if the players get paid 58% of the profit and the owners get 42%, doesn't that seem like a a win for the players, at least ATL players? If the players got 50 of the Revenue that would mean that 58% would go way up, and some teams that have less Revenue could actually lose money? Anyway, have a good day.

By looking at their attendance, by April 23rd they had close to 20K fans, and by May 7th they were close to 40. The also had 3 series playoff series and where in a pennant race, shouldn't that more than cover the begging of the season lack of attendance?

That should be something the players are negotiating for, if they aren't that is on them.

I have a question, maybe I am missing something. The braves made 104 million profit and their payroll was around 145 million. Meaning if the braves didn't pay the players one cent, they would have made 249 in profit, 145 of 249 is around 58%. Is this number too low of percentage for the players? Ins this case this actually makes the owners look better. Or like I said am I missing the point of this? I truly don't have a side in this labor battle, just trying to look at it from an outside perspective. As for Mike's comment on real estate, I don't think the players have any right to that money, I don't think the owners ask for anything from players endorsements (could be wrong) but this isn't important.

Love your optimism, I hope the same for Lewis and Martin, I am just trying to be more realistic. They Twins have so many questions marks on the pitching side, and with Rooker, Larnach, Gordon, Celestino, Jeffers and to some extent AK and Sano. It seems that just getting Lewis on the field and comfortable with his injury is the most important thing, but I do agree if his bat is closer to his minor league history than 2019 league, he will fall into Gordon territory and that will make the FO look bad, but people will excuse that away (not me or the sounds of it you) with the COVID season and his injury, and they will say he is still young (which he is), With Martin not being on the 40 I think the Twins will ask him to do what you said and try to get some of that pop back, and it might cause some short term regression, but long term gain and if they aren't forced by injury or a possible trade to bring him up they won't. I think this year will be used to evaluate AK in LF and 1B, where Miranda's plays, see what they have in Rooker and Laranch, Celestino, and Sano. Lets say AK looks like the future at 1B, Mirand's bat is starter worthy, and one of the outfielders prove they are big league worthy. Next year opens all sorts of possibilities (also assuming the pitching prospects get figured out). They could trade all or some of Kepler, Sano, Donaldson, Arraez. Still have AK(1B), Polanco(2b), SS?, Miranda (3B), Buxton (CF), RF to the hitter that stepped up, and they could put Martin in LF (it isn't horrible starting 1 rookie), Lewis could be the new Arraez. But they have to figure out where these players on the edge of the 40 man fit in, because if they start adding the Martin's of the world to the 40 man, they will have to cut or trade guys they never gave a chance. Which is why last September Rooker, Larnach, Celestino and any healthy pitcher on the 40 should have been brought up, and guys like Gant should have been gone.

You are either on to something or on something. But any chance of that being the the lineup on opening day 23, we are going to need to see Miranda (who is the mostly likely) Lewis and Martin playing those positions in the majors regularly this year to prove their ready. As of today one of them hasn't played in two years and the other isn't on the 40 man. And with the all the pitching questions, I don't see them jacking around much with the 40 man on the offensive side unless they have to. (Which IMO means Martin in the minors all this year, and Lewis if capable getting a call at the end of the year.)

Sadly this is how labor disputes work, the side paying has to offer less or maybe the same and the side getting paid as to ask for more, And hopefully both sides give and take a little. If the side paying starts by offering more it wouldn't take to many negotiations in the future to end paying more than they take in, because the side getting paid will never stop asking for more. This isn't much different than teachers union in MPLS and St. Paul now. If the taxes payers cave to all the union demands, do you think the union won't continue to ask for more each and every time the contract comes due from the tax payers? (FYI I am not saying this to get off topic or take a side, just using it as a example of both sides in a labor dispute have to work)

IMO the talk of trades is fun and something to talk about during the off-season and lockout. But I don't see it happening, Imagine if Ober and Ryan do this year just what they did last year with a few more innings. If Winder or Balazovic step up to be a major league starter, and Maeda comes back. You have 4 starters for 2023, and that isn't including if one of Winder or Balazovic were decent but not quite ready. Ages will be start of the 23 season. They still have a 25 year old Canterino, 25 year old Duran, a 22 year old SWR. a 25 year old Varland, a 25 year old Sands, 22 year old Hajjar, a 24 year old Enlow, and a 26 year old Strotman all looking for spots (in 23). Sure a couple will end up in the pen, but in that list is 6 of the 10 ten prospects, a high paid 3rd round pick, and last years 2nd round pick. Sure maybe Ober or Ryan goes backwards and ends up in the pen, or both Winder and Balazovic don't turn out, but that scenario is should get FO fired. So unless this FO is willing to trade a couple of the guys above in the trades for a veteran pitcher, it makes no sense to me to continue to fill up the 40 man with guys on the edge but not willing to put them in. IMO, whatever job they were thinking Jax could do, you give it to Strotman straight away, if he fails he can go to the minors and work on being a shut down bullpen guy, if he succeeds great continue to give him more opportunities. They should plan on giving the 5th starter to whoever deserves it between Sands, Winder and Balazovic and tell the other to prove them wrong in AAA and they will be up. Duran should start the season in the majors, they can baby his injury there, why waste any more 100mph pitches in AAA. You have the AAA rotation be two of Winder/Balazovic/Sands, Canterino, Varland and Vallimont.

100% correct nobody at this time needs to be cut at this time. The Twins 40 man currently stands at 38 (Miranda and Celestino are already on it). So there are two spots open now, and two will open up I believe if everything stays the same when the season opens. I assume they will fill the two open spots with some sort of Free agents, but who knows.

My response is based on the current 40 man, not my hopes for possible trades, fa signings, or ideas of stacking, starters, or the idea of no roles. (I think before you talk bullpen you have to establish a 5 man rotation. Bundy, Ryan, Ober, Dobnak, and Winder or Stroman. (That leaves 8 other available slots.) 1. Rogers (31) 2. Alcala (26) 3. Duffey (31) 4. Thielbar (35) 5. Stashak (27) 6. Garza Jr (27) 7. Thorpe (he is out of options I believe) 8. Jax (he is so expendable, he can be the guy they abuse when things go bad, or an emergency starter) That leave Cotton, fighting for one of the last 4 spots or possible 5th starter. Moran/Sands/Vallimont/Duran as a guys that splits time in AAA/Majors, (IMO this is one of the worst looking group of pitchers on a 40 man roster) In reality Ryan, Ober, Winder, Balazovic, Rogers, Alcala, Duran and Sands are really the only guys on this 40 man that I wouldn't have a problem trading, possibly cutting, or all out abusing.

Start him at SS at AA and see what happens. I have personally have no expectation of seeing him in MN this year, under the old MLB contract maybe late September, under a new one maybe depending on how service time works. As a 20 year old in A+ and AA he was not good with the bat at all, The Fall league was exact opposite, so I want to see his bat be closer to fall league for an extended time. IMO this is kind of a make or break year for him, if he hits like he did in 2019, he will fall into the Nick Gordon prospect territory and the Twins will have to decide if he is worth a 40 man spot. If he hits like he did in the fall league, they are going to have figure out a spot for him next year on the Twins, which is a good problem to have.

So do you think the Pohlads send people to this site to see how the wind is blowing, and those people report back, hey we might have finally convinced the fans to save you money, and the Pohlads laugh like the Duke brothers? (trading places reference) Currently now they are sitting 44 million under last years payroll with options(based on numbers from Baseball Reference), and there is talk to trade Sano (10 million) to save money, Donaldson for sure (50 million over 20 years with buyout), and some have suggested Kepler (about 16 over 2 years with a buyout). And others are worried about spending money on a 29 year old SS, who was a top 12 MVP 3 of the last 4 years, and the year he wasn't only had a 4.2 WAR, because he makes too much or might possibly be blocking a guy that hasn't played in two years and never has hit as good as Story even when Story hasn't been great. If people aren't willing to spend money on a 29 year old offensive player, who are you ever going to be OK with signing?

IMO it comes from, fans love the hope of a prospect, they dream of the prospect being a yearly all star stepping in taking over the position with very little struggle. Then when that prospect gets real close to be depended on, we fans start pointing out things that have probably been there the whole time, but we have to temper our expectations to as not to be let down by the player, because we are already dreaming on the next prospect. Look at the wild up and downs on Lewis for example. Two years ago he was the Twins SS of the future, he started getting close last year and we fans were talking about him moving to the OF, maybe staying at SS. Now that it is likely he will be in the minors all year, we fans are talking about how he might be the SS of the future again, and my guess is if he bat is decent, going into next year we fans will be saying maybe LF is his position until Buxton contract is up, traded or injured.

Rooker and Gordon seem like the only two that could be cut. Carrying 3 catchers seem fine, and if somebody gets hurt you are adding another anyway. Celestino and Larnach are the unknowns and probably could return something young and decent. Trading Sano or Kepler, probably make the team worse in the short-term unless all the others play well. Arraez seems like the best trade piece but also the best plan B and C for some other positions. With that being said it looks like Martin could be this years Miranda, should be called up but probably won't.

The opening day left fielder was Cave (600k), game three was Kyle Garlick (570k), game for was Rooker(300k), all three players worse than Eddie. The twins saved around 7 million dollars by not signing Eddie, and where did they spend that 7 million (Simmons maybe)? Sure it might be a bit more complex, and it was probably the right thing not signing those players, doesn't take away from my point that I was trying to make about the players hopefully seeing their future and doing what they can to change it. Berrios was traded because they wouldn't pay him what he wanted, and where did they spend that money they saved? (or the belief could be he hated MN so bad he there was no amount of money that he would have signed for) We will see this year, if Martin is up right away or if SWR sees the majors, then it might not look like a money deal, but if Martin is good and isn't added to the 40, or if SWR looks like he could be brought up and isn't well.....

You are probably correct, which explains why nothing really got done. It looks like they get paid only during the season, not spring training or the playoffs. IMO, the owners see what these new age FO are doing (Keeping costs low) and don't want to change that, I am sure they know there will be some price to pay for it (like less people in the stands), but at the end of the day it can save millions of dollars (for example not signing Eddie, ODO, and trading guys for prospects a few years out) Look at the Berrios trade for example. they save 10 million this year (assuming SWR and Martin don't play in the majors), they get to put a rookie in the starting rotation to replace him, and they control Martin until he is 30, they can hold back SWR until probably 2024, thus controlling him until he is almost 30. If they turn out better than decent they can offer a less than value extension bringing them to wrong side of 30. It is a great business model for the owners and a horrible model for the players and fans (well unless the FO is magical and is always churning though players and the ones that come up are almost as good) Imagine if all teams did something very similar, most 30+ years olds would be hired guns and don't have a bad or down year. IMO, this is what the players need to worry about.

Love the optimism, it seems weird that the FO didn't think they could do that in September last year, but would be able to do it at the start of this year. I think Balazovic needs 10 - 15 big league stars this year at a minimum to, if there is hope he is Shane Bieber like. I believe Winder needs 15 or more since he is much older.

Both sides know there is no real pressure to finalize a deal until it starts hurting the others pocket books. In negotiations one side always has the leverage, The players knew they had it in the offseason because I believe they aren't getting paid anyway, so they can ask for the world. The owners know they have no real leverage until it starts hurting the players (development or Pocket books) so they ask for the world and pretend to make concessions on things they started higher than they wanted anyway. IMO the owners don't care much about spring training, I am assuming that isn't really a money maker for them, I might be wrong, but I assume the money being made is in the cities they teams play. The owners will get more serious if they TV money stops or revenue from the regular season stops, the players will get serious when they aren't getting their paychecks, and right now if I was an owner I would be betting on that I have deeper pockets than most players and the players will start pushing their leadership to get this done. Also if I was an owner I would be telling the players leadership, how much money is it going to cost guys like Lewis, Winder, etc with a short season and them not getting big league time to start their clock? If you are the Pohlads for example and most of your pitching prospects are already getting older (in terms of pitching prospects) delaying their service time another year, how much money you can save in the long run? Half of these prospects will be on the wrong side of 30 when they become true free agents and more than likely unless they are awesome will never see the big contract with lots of years, this philosophy could actually help lower revenue teams compete until the next contract is due. On the players side, they have to see the writing on the wall, teams are overprotecting their pitching prospects by slowly bringing them along in the minor, thus getting to the majors later, reducing the time to earn big money, and on top of that not training the pitcher to be actual starting pitchers again reducing the money they can make, all in the name of injury protection. Look at this site and how many people have talked about the idea of a pitching staff of innings (starters, stacking, no real roles) , you don't think the players see this and think, this isn't so much about a philosophy but an amazing way of keeping cost down? For the hitting and defensive side the stat analysis have made a ton of players expendable when they are getting close to free agency as well. (Look at Eddie for example, a 29 year old coming off two top 20 MVP years and basically hitting 25 plus homers for 4 years in a row, he got a 1 year 8 million contract) the players have to see that and say WTF, unless you are future HOF, you are might struggle to get contracts after you become a free agent, so they basically sign less than the value extensions, putting them on the wrong side of 30 again. (again on this site the Twins signed Donaldson at age 34 coming off a top 11 MVP and people were complaining he was too old, and since that day trying to figure out how to get him out of town for somebody cheaper and not necessarily even as good) (I understand this stuff doesn't really affect the best of the best, teams will always treat those players different) That is my long winded rant for the day, have a good one.

Agreed, if there was no lock out the AAA rotation should be Balazovic (23), Winder (25)/Strotman (25) (one in the majors), Canterino (24), Varland (24), Sands (24), these pitchers are all too old to be starting anywhere but AAA, I don't care about innings or injuries, unless the plan a head of time is to give them 3-5 in AA and bring them directly up to the majors. Duran should be in the majors pitching out of the pen. And if the Twins start Jordan in AA because of these other pitchers, #4 is too high.

The Twins have better defensive of options? Who AK? he has played 64 games at first since 2016. or JD moved over from 3B. The extension was fine, he hasn't blocked any prospect from coming up or hindered the team from signing anybody. Why are people worried about 10 million of Polhads money?

I am not defending Law, way back when he was free on ESPN I read all of his stuff. I think it was in one chat where he said something a long the lines of younger pitchers are hard to project, so you take size, arm motion and stuff and project what they could be, thus why you see pitchers like Kohl Stewart so high on lists, but the older they get the closer they are to what they will be than would they could be. And besides SWR none of the Twins prospects are all that young. Shane Bieber was getting his feet wet with 20 games as a 23 year old, got better at 24, awesome at 25. I remember a debate about the NY Mets maybe assembling one of the best pitching staffs in history. Thor, Harvey, De Grom, Martz (and maybe wheeler, don't remember all of them) around 2014 and it was pointed out most them were already in their mid 20's and weren't likely to get much better than they already were and shouldn't be mentioned in conversation, because they hadn't really accomplished anything at that point, 7 years later to this point besides De Grom and Wheeler (in Philly) as a group they didn't get any better. I don't really think the Twins need their top prospects to get better (except SWR) than they are they just need to continue what they have been doing in the minors in the big leagues. So we can hope one of them magically becomes amazing in the majors or just be happy that 5 or 6 of them will be solid and maybe a bit better for a few years in the majors.