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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    Why win now when you have the chance if everything breaks right to get some extra value in 2018?
  2. drjim
    Please White Sox trade Sale, and to the National League. I would do Sano and Berrios in a heartbeat.
  3. drjim
    I was kind of hoping you would have Mauer move back to C to seal the deal.
  4. drjim
    Indeed. A theme we do come back to here is that perhaps league average/good players can be a little underrated. His skillset can certainly play for a playoff team.
  5. drjim
    His babip is high and will regress but doesn't strike me as preposterous for a guy with his hit tool and is certainly in line with his minor league numbers (outside of last year when he started the season suspended). He will need to bump his bb rate slightly but I'm probably more interested in seeing him cut his k rate. It has been trending down and that is the key for his game to work. If it all clicks, he'll be a decent avg, low bb, lowish k hitter with a little pop, good d and some speed. That is a little unorthodox in today's game but can certainly work. Fun player to watch too.
  6. drjim
    I have another thought on Pelfrey trade. Unless the Twins collapse before the deadline, trading him for a prospect would be a disaster. I could accept a scenario where the Twins could trade him for a bat at SS, C or possible RF, but really hard to see a match.
  7. drjim
    He's out of options though, isn't he?
  8. drjim
    I like the move but highly doubt the Twins have much a chance at getting him. He has the no trade with the Twins and teams that want him as a closer seem to be interested. That said, the opt out angle is interesting, just don't see it.
  9. drjim
    Would acquiring a RH reliever prevent them from upgrading those positions? I tend to think the lack of actual options at SS and C is probably the problem.
  10. drjim
    They don't. They have all kinds of middling relievers now with upside guys on the horizon that aren't ready yet. An effective RH reliever seems to be a pretty big need that can be filled without hampering the future.
  11. drjim
    I would certainly take him if it is mostly money. I wonder how he would feel about being traded to be a setup man and lose out on the option.
  12. drjim
    I generally agree Walker will struggle to make it, but he has a carrying tool basically unmatched in the system, so he deserves to be higher. I give a lot of leeway to good defensive catchers. I'll give his bat one more year before I'm too critical.
  13. drjim
    I hadn't done as deep a dive when I posted that and you are certainly correct, not nearly as deep as it has been. It is still a top 10 at the moment and likely will remain so even if Sano graduates, but there has certainly been some graduations, some stalling and not enough emergence or replenishing. I would personally go: 1. Sano 2. Berrios 3. Polanco 4. Kepler 5. Jay 6. Gordon 7. Stewart 8. Meyer 9. Gonsalves 10. Turner 11. Harrison 12. Walker 13. Hu That is some meat on the top, followed by talented question marks, then some legit B-/C+ guys, followed by power relievers, upside guys in the low levels, and upper level depth. It has taken a step back but still a solid system. Could look better if some of the draftees or international guys in the rookie leagues show well.
  14. drjim
    The Astros have made a boatload of transactions the last four years, some of them were bound to hit, and it is no coincidence that those are the ones that get played up for stories. Do we know about the many that didn't hit? Is it fair to emphasize the couple of Astro hits and compare them with the many misses all teams have? Do the Astros actually hit at a higher rate than other teams because they have a better system? Have they just been lucky? Do they have the ability to exploit these gains properly? Will they squander them chasing after an advantage that is more imagined than real? Will they be able to recover when they invest significant assets into a failure? There is no arguing with success this season, the question is whether it is sustainable. These are the questions all executives/models are faced with. Do to the long cyclical nature of baseball it is easy to jump on quick or current success but the question is always can it sustain and turn over.
  15. drjim
    No argument in value of good data - but there is some debate about what actually constitutes good data, what is the most effective implementation of said data and how that data can interact with other aspects of an organization.
  16. drjim
    I think it was because he was healthy enough to take off the DL so an official decision had to be made.
  17. drjim
    He would likely see better command in AAA relative to AA but not better stuff. And he will get much better instruction in the bigs than at AAA.
  18. drjim
    To put it another way, I'm not fully convinced that the Twins should completely junk what they are doing and copy the Astros. I think the Twins should continually tinker with their model to improve it by further (through increased use of analytics and more strategic resource allocation for starters), but not at the expense of franchise strengths.
  19. drjim
    I'll concede without hesitation that Theo Epstein is the best front office executive in baseball. What makes him great in my mind is how he brings all streams together - analytics, scouting, leadership, resource management, hiring great lieutenants, etc. The jury is still out on Luhnow. He has great talents for sure. Remains to be seen if his strengths can cover his weaknesses. I'm not a kneejerk critic of Luhnow, I'm a fan of approaching things from a variety of methods and I don't think all franchises should be carbon copies of each other. Baseball generally runs in cycles and these two are currently the most on the upswing, but it takes sustained success over a longer period to prove a specific model will work. Epstein has done it multiple years with multiple franchises, too early for Luhnow.
  20. drjim
    You just said send him down. He doesn't need additional motivation to work on his game, he needs reps.
  21. drjim
    I fear people are getting ahead of themselves on Gonsalves and especially Hu. Good prospects to have and doing fine, but questions on their stuff and whether success is more due to deception. Putting up numbers in A ball is certainly preferable to not putting up numbers, but the next step will really show. I trust scouting and stuff much more in A ball over numbers, in AA it begins to flip.
  22. drjim
    I remember hearing hints of this on an Effectively Wild podcast. Don't we all wish the stat heads would all make up their minds... If nothing else, hopefully people will simmer down a little, stop belittling different interpretations and show some humility in these debates. (OK, that last sentence was a joke)
  23. drjim
    Maybe, maybe not. I have a couple of thoughts on this. First, the Twins are doing more than people know in this regard, as are many clubs. Just because they don't broadcast it doesn't mean it doesn't happen. They were well behind the curve a couple of years ago but have made up some ground. Second, baseball is more fundamentally a human industry than finance. It remains to be seen to what extent you can treat humans as assets. To me this is the mistake of comparing Luhnow and Theo (and , they are on different levels with this. There are multiple ways to be successful because of this and value can be captured in multiple ways. Third, baseball is at a massively smaller scale than finance with limited firms and complete barriers to entry. There are limits to arbitrage. Bottom line, as I see it, is that there is certainly value being captured, but there is value that can be captured through other methods as well. To wit, Boston is probably doing pretty much the same stuff as ChC, Hou, Pit but they aren't being praised because they have made some poor moves. It will go in cycles like anything.
  24. drjim
    Not silly to burn an option but also very premature. Do you really expect the Twins to need to option him in 2018? People can't call for promotions and then panic because they struggle for a couple of games.
  25. drjim
    It seems so counterproductive for mlb teams to pay so little. I'm not saying minor leaguers should make huge money but providing them with some reasonable resources would only help in their development.
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