jmlease1

It's really not: it's a 20 year period where Dallas has utterly underperformed by the standards it supposedly set for itself and the expectations of the league. yes, jerry Jones won 3 super bowls as owner. but all of his real football success was in his first 7 years, and the teams were built when Jimmy Johnson had final say on football matters. That's not cherry-picking, it's context. I can live with a Jerry Jones owner as long as it's initial Jerry, who could hire someone talented and let them do their job. Later jerry, who needed to get more credit, have more control, and play with his toys? No thanks. If you get the jerry from the last 20-25 years, you're probably not getting those early wins that he had.

Sure, but under the Wilfs the Vikings have reached the conference finals twice; during the same period, Jerry has gotten Dallas to the conference finals exactly never. Jerry Jones hit on the right coach at the right time out the gate. was that the result of him being a meddler who thought he knew more about football than everyone or did he just get lucky? Kinda seems like the latter. Al Davis was a big winner early on with the Raiders when he was young and on the cutting edge of football, willing to innovate, take risks on players that didn't meet the traditional mold, being ahead of the game on race and free agency. once everyone else caught up...suddenly all the meddling screwed up the franchise. The meddling from ownership rarely helps. The twins biggest flaw as a franchise is an ownership that is uninterested in investing in the team, and is primarily interested in generating wealth from it. If the Ishbias come in and the twins have more success, it'll be because they've injected capital into the franchise, not because they're making decisions on free agents or firing managers. they seem like the right kind of ownership for the team: interested in investing, growth-oriented in terms of viewership and attendance and marketing. You just hope they won't make the classic new ownership mistakes of making a big splashy (and dumb) signing, firing, or trade just to have something that they can take credit for and show everyone that the new owners have arrived. The fact that they've been through sports franchise ownership with Phoenix for a couple of years already should help? but they seem exactly like the sort of owners who would take an operating loss for a few years while in contention in order to try and win it all, rather than cut payroll on a winning team to cash-flow one of their other businesses, and have the resources to look at the benefits over a longer period than year over year.

All three have something common: the more they messed around with the team the worse things got. Jerry Jones won with Jimmy Johnson's players, fired him because Jimmy got all the credit and once those players were gone hasn't won since. How have the last 30 years gone for the Cowboys? Their owner plays GM and does it badly. Al Davis did great in the early Raider years and was very influential. And then he wouldn't let go even as the game passed him by and how did that go for the Raiders? Ceded some power to Gruden who rebuilt the team...and then couldn't tolerate someone else calling the shots; once Gruden and his team were gone the Raiders have been one of the worst franchises in the NFL. Steinbrenner won a lot with the Yankees, but arguably his teams won in spite of him rather than because of him. The more he meddled, the worse they got. (the constant hiring/firing of Billy Martin? ugh) His best run was after he had been suspended and when he let others run the team and he stepped back in 90's.

Boy, having a big name sure does keep selling around here. I'm baffled by the people pushing for Goldschmidt, who looks to be in a very very steep decline. yes, he was the MVP in 2022, but dropped off badly in 2023, and wasn't even an average starter last season. two of his 3 worst seasons have been...the last 2 seasons. And yet, the name alone probably adds $2-7M to the price. He's 37; why exactly do we think he's going to bounce back substantially? He's been healthy every year for the past 10, so isn't it most likely that he's just finally losing to Father Time after a great career? defensively, he's regressed and there's nothing in his hitting stats to suggest that he was merely unlucky. isn't it more likely that 2022 was one last hurrah for the old lion rather than any signal that he'll be able to play effectively as he heads towards 40? I don't think Turner is a good fit: he's not exactly known for bashing around LHP, looks to be in real decline, isn't much of a defensive player, and has already turned 40. Santana is probably the best choice, but he really should be platooning/late inning defensive replacement at this point, because he just doesn't hit RHP much any longer. I'm unconvinced the Twins would properly allocate his playing time, especially if he gets a raise in free agency. Would I be ok with him platooning with Julien and tutoring Julien on the finer points of playing 1B, pinch hitting against LHP, being a defensive replacement in late & close games...sure. Much less excited about him as an every day starter, because he just can't hit RHP much any longer.

More power to them. If they own the stadium, then they're also less likely to move; it's not like you can take the stadium with you. I'd be happy for them to be responsible for all stadium improvements and development around the area, and Hennepin County can always use the cash. But I wouldn't bet on that part; one of the ways rich people stay rich is getting governments to pay for stuff for them.

That risk is out there for any owner that's not a MN resident/native. But the Twins lease isn't short, neither Ishbia lives/works in a city that doesn't already have a team (and they're from Detroit), and MLB wants MSP as a market. Yes, Justin Ishbia has ties to Nashville, but it's not like he's been living/working there for the past 20 years. If he buys the Twins, by the time the lease is up he'll have spent more time in MSP than he did in Nashville for law school. There's some risk to any new owner that they're going to be a yahoo, a fool, make promises they can't fulfill, etc. They're billionaires and the vast majority of them aren't exactly good people (IMHO). But in the MLB world of no salary cap and limited revenue sharing and no realistic means for community ownership...they're a pretty good fit. They're baseball fans, especially Justin. They're insanely wealthy and not afraid to use that wealth. They seem interested in sports franchises because they like sports and want to win, rather than just having them as assets to make themselves more wealthy in 7-10 years. And they certainly seem to be people that would take a short-term financial hit in order to compete for a title. I ain't rooting for any billionaire, and I'm sure the Ishbia's have done some shady crap (or simply permitted it) in pursuit of having All The Wealth (let's not pretend the Pohlads' hands are clean; Carl made the family money in banking, an industry well-known for always playing fair, right?). But in terms of purely sports ownership...the Ishbias could be a great fit for the Twins.

There's absolutely no reason for the Twins not to take a shot. They should swing for the fences on this one and 100% put their best foot forward. Screw the East and West Coasters who call us "flyover territory" and all the baseball bobos who presume that no one of import will want to come here. Why not us? The team is going to compete. There's star power in players like Correa, Buxton, Lopez, and Lewis (who may not have proved it yet over a season but unquestionably has the star magnetism) and young talent. Minnesota is awesome in the spring, summer, and fall which is when he'd be actually pitching here; the team is in Ft. Myers in Feb, and I hear that's the time to be in FL. the media here doesn't have anywhere near the same crush that you do in japan or on the coasts, and while you'll have to deal with some twits some of the worst offenders won't often bestir themselves to go to the games, making them far easier to ignore. the fans will love you. We love anyone that shows they want to be here and gives a damn. (and I'm fine with that) We won't even ask you to try lutefisk! (and you'll love the walleye) Heck, I bet Pablo Lopez will learn Japanese just so he can be a better mentor and friend to you. (seriously, I bet Pablo could do it. Dude is crazy smart and already speaks a bunch of languages) Joe Ryan would teach you water polo. Griffin Jax would use his AF connections to get you up in a jet. I'd love to get this dude. Take your absolute best shot at him, Twins. Just don't presume you're gonna sign him.

assuming that you start professional work at 18, that means retiring at 63. Which certainly used to be pretty normal and it would be awfully nice if people didn't have to desperately keep hanging on for 5-7 more years so that they don't go broke in retirement. Especially for people working blue collar jobs which generally have physical demands that make it exceptionally hard for folks to keep working well into their 60's.

INteresting group. I'd go: Goltz Worthington Reardon Perkins Boswell didn't have enough big years, Chance & Grant weren't here long enough IMHO, and Erickson needed either one more bigger year here or a higher peak (He may have been runner up for the Cy that year but a) he didn't deserve it, and b) wasn't even the best pitcher on the Twins that year; Tapani was better.)

Mack Koskie Smalley Brunansky I wouldn't add any of the others to the Twins Hall. All were fine players and did some good things for the Twins, but they're not Twins Hall of Fame worthy, IMHO. But if I had to rank the remainder: Harper Guzman Jones People forget just how great Mack was. And it certainly wasn't his fault the '94 season got cut short by greed. Because he was a late breakout, also can't blame him for going to Japan to get paid. But he was pretty great as a Twin.

I always think about the "Bad Clubhouse Guy" issue through the lens Bill Simmons set up long ago: you can have ONE. When you have 2+ then they might start hanging out together and enabling each others worst traits. or drown out the quieter but possibly smarter guys. And there's a difference between a guy with some questionable issues and a total disaster. The biggest issue I have with Pham is he's been bad in too many recent years (3 of the last 5) and at 37 how many more bounce back years does he actually have? Same question with Grandal: hasn't hit since 2021 and might just be cooked. 2024 when he had an OPS+ of 95 might have been his bounce back and now he's cooked...

it was such a small sample size at Ft Myers that we really don't know who he is yet. As a college player, you'd hope he could control the strike zone against A-ball pitchers, and he did grabbing plenty of walks. But while the overall OPS was solid for the FSL, the .222 batting average is more concerning. That said, a handful of hits in 63 ABs makes a big difference, so it could just be small sample size. That's why i think the full year of pro baseball will be so interesting with him. He showed he could compete out the gate and doesn't need time in rookie ball/complex league/etc and can play in A-ball already. But let's see how a full year of professional baseball impacts him. He is coming form a high level program at Tennessee and Clemson is significant as well, so he's had good competition and hopefully decent coaching, access to high level training etc. Now he gets to do this as a job and focus entirely on being a baseball player with a lot more games. Should be fun to track, seems like he was a solid pick.

Personally, I think that Brooks Lee is going to lock down 3B for the next several year at least, but happy to have Amick developing. Looks like he had a solid start and it'll be interesting to see how fast he's pushed and how well he does this season. You can never have too much talent.

I can't think of an article more designed to bring the "I hate Falvey/Rocco" people on this board out in force this year. not seeing a roster spot for Amed Rosario on this team: he's not really a 1B, has limited experience in the OF and can't play CF. he's only a fit if Castro gets traded. Maybe that happens, maybe not but until it does Amed Rosario ain't gonna be a Twin.

Because Paddack had a rookie season where he made 26 starts, threw 140 innings and had an ERA+ of 126. Maybe he'll never get back to that because of all the injuries, but you've seen flashes with the twins that make it easy to talk yourself into it. And the floor is pretty good on Paddack: even if he's never back to where he was, he can still eat up innings as a 5th starter or shift to the bullpen. At $7.5M, that's not crazy money at all and the upside is pretty good. Since the self-imposed payroll limits of the Pohlads make money so tight this season and I think the upside for Festa is high...I'd take the risk and move on from Paddack, especially with Matthews, Raya, lewis, Adams, Morris, etc waiting in the wings. If I'm a team in need of a cheap starter to take the 5th slot, I'd probably be interested in taking a flyer on Paddack for the role on a 1 year deal for $7.5M. If I'm the A's, had bad starters last season and need to spend more or get cut out of revenue sharing...this might be a bargain!

It does, because a) a reasonably healthy Correa isn't a 3 bWAR player; he's a 5+ one, and b) the increasing value of WAR isn't really linear. The value of that all-star level player (and despite the nice honor, being a good guy, and having a fine 1st half...Castro didn't play at an all-star level) really makes a bigger difference than just 1.5 bWAR because it's so much harder to find those players. It's especially important in the playoffs. (The only reason the team's biggest concern is operating income is because ownership has made it so. they pocketed the big profits during the cheap payroll years and refuse to take losses. They'd rather use the twins for cash to prop up other parts of their business empire than the other way around. That's basically inarguable at this point, and so the argument about operating revenue is kind of a non-starter for fans, as it should be) Considering how desperately the Rays needed another offensive producer and got little other than defense at SS...yeah, I'd say Carlos Correa would have been worth $33M to them. Would they have paid it? no, because their ownership is cheaper than the Pohlads. but they would have ended up a lot closer to playoff spot. The A's? they still would have been bad, because their starting pitching was remarkably dreadful, but Correa would have made a difference there too. Again, their ownership is somehow significantly worst than the Pohlads so they never would have paid it, but...Correa was, is, and will be a difference maker.

I don't hate on moves like this. You're buying a lottery ticket, and if there are some significant bullpen injuries (or ineffectiveness), he might make an impact. Smart teams look for these opportunities to supplement their upper minors and the cost is pretty low; the biggest issue is if the Twins don't have a spot for him when the opt-out hits, he'll leave and then some people will be Big Mad if he does anything for anyone else. Oh, well. My only issue is when it shakes out that all you've been able to do to improve your team is buy half a dozen or so of these lottery tickets and then you need one of them to pay out rather than looking at them as a bonus and/or extra insurance.

Well, I can't think of any better way for the Twins to wave the white flag of surrender and guarantee even worse attendance than to trade Correa. Highly doubt the Twins would be taking on anywhere near the same cost in contracts in return, and I would expect Vazquez and Paddack to go in salary dumps shortly thereafter, with ownership pocketing the savings in one last cash grab as they sell the team, should this occur. I hope this isn't serious, and it's just the "well, we'll always listen, I guess" sort of move because losing our SS while this team is still competitive, without a clear replacement in place (I like Lee a lot, but I'd much rather have him at 3B) and knowing that our ownership will not spend would be a disaster. Hope Correa tells them "I'm not interested in going anywhere this year" and ends this.

And yet, Buxton and Correa were both substantially more impactful players last season, even playing fewer games. Teams will prefer Correa and Buxton, because they consistently add value beyond batting average. Arraez also grounded into 18 double plays last season, more than double Buxton and Correa combined. Maybe Arraez started hitting for himself rather than the team, chasing that batting title? Look, I like Arraez. seems like a good dude, and he's super fun to watch. But while the floor is high with him because of his outstanding contact skills, the ceiling is lower because of his lack of speed or defense, limits on his power, struggles vs LHP (career .681 OPS vs LHP), and increasing disinterest in taking walks to supplement his OBP. If I were a playoff team, i'd want to find a role for him, because his contact skills play up more in close games...but it would be tough to find a full-time role for him if he has another season like last year, batting title or no.

Sure? But you're wrong about the Twins: they just aren't afraid of Ks, because an out is an out. They'd prefer more hits, but they also know it's a lot easier to actually score runs when you don't have to string together 3 singles to get 1 run and 5+ hits in an inning to put up a crooked number. If Arraez can play a consistent 2B and slug over .400, then teams would be clamoring for his services. If he took walks like he when he was a Twin in combination with those awesome batting averages (and can either slug over .400 consistently and/or play something other than DH) then his price tag is a lot more palatable. The lack of speed is a big limiter; how often is he going first to third on those creaky knees? Or scoring from second on a single to right? He's not stealing bases. But if he's a slap-hitting DH whose on-base % is only around .350 what are you getting for $10M? A very empty BA that's fun to watch, but doesn't actually score you many runs.

Mauer also had BB% of 11.8. Arraez is at 6.9%. Joe was on base a lot more: OBP over .400 6 times before the concussion. Arraez has never done it. Mauer also had a SLG% of .439 so there were a LOT of doubles in there. No one is saying Arraez isn't a useful player, but his ceiling is limited if he can't play effective defense, doesn't draw walks on top of his singles, and isn't hitting enough doubles (and triples) to supplement his SLG, especially since he isn't adding speed as a factor to his game (which also limits the number of doubles and triples he can hit). As he gets more expensive, that's a challenge.

Arraez is complicated. If his thumb is healed and he's able to show a little pop in his bat again, he'll give good value to a team as a hitter; he doesn't need to hit a pile of homers, but he also needs to be more than just singles. Because while all of the hits are great, he's not taking many walks to go along with them, so his OBP is reliant on him getting a massive amount of those singles. If his achy knees allow him to play 2B effectively, then his value ticks up a lot more. A no-power, no-walk 1B/DH is pretty tough to sustain, especially at $10M. Carlos Santana was significantly more impactful at 1B for the Twins in 2024 at half the price. You have to realistic about what you're going to get with Arraez: lots of singles, tons of contact. limited speed and defense. limited power. He's also a poor hitter against LHP, so really should get plenty of breaks there, if not a straight platoon. Add it up and you can see why he's moving around. His elite skills aren't the ones that are the most impactful over the course of a season. He will be more impactful in the playoffs, when playing for 1 run is more common and his ability to generate contact and hits is more valuable. Twins made the right call in trading him. We'll see if Miami got the kind of prospects that made it worth dealing him in their latest fire sale. But in an era of budget cuts it's easy to see why SD might try and move on.

that is my real fear with any of these signings with marginal veterans. He's probably not going to hit better than Miranda, but Miranda also shouldn't be running out into the OF. He looks like the sort of player you grab just before spring training starts for below market because he hasn't found a job yet. (aka, the Donovan Solano) I definitely don't want to run out and grab him in December. Might look better (and cheaper) in Feb

This is one of those ones where that's a lot of MFing Ifs. IF Canha can still play a solid corner OF...IF Canha's struggles last season were just injury related...IF Canha can stay healthy, IF Canha hasn't lost all of the pop in his bat... There are worse choices, but hard to get excited about him taking ABs away from someone like Miranda (if Jose is healthy). My biggest concern with any signing like this is if he flops, will the team be able to let him go, or will they keep throwing him out there to flail. While their persistence has worked sometimes (Carlos Santana after a terrible start, Max Kepler after an awful start where he looked lost), it's failed others (Margot, Farmer, Gallo...). The difficulty in knowing when a guy will recover from a bad start vs chasing that bad bet all season makes me nervous.

well, that's the rub, right? Are we making some moves to free up cash to sign a real OF or 1B option or not? Until we know what's going on there, Keirsey will have to sit in limbo. I think there's a fair amount of agreement around here that the desire for minor league depth isn't worth giving a roster spot to a reclamation project veteran and that's really what's a stake here: the roster spot. because there are only going to be 13 position players on the MLB roster and right now 10 are for sure spoken for, and maybe 11 (depends on what people think of Julien & Lee and whether either starts the season in AAA; I think there's pretty good odds of both being on the opening day roster, which leaves only 2 spots open. But there's a fair case that one might get pushed back down; I think there's zero chance that both do). Considering our Pohlad imposed payroll limitations, there's very little room to add veterans anyways; 1 seems likely, 2 seems to require a fairly significant trade, and 3 means something pretty substantial, IMHO. Of course the other issue Keirsey has to face is whether the Twins might prefer to go with Helman in this kind of slot and look at him as a RH utility guy with maybe less OF defense but more positional flexibility. Because it seems unlikely that they go with two unproven guys to fill bench roles. Regardless, I'd prefer to roll with Helman or Keirsey as the 13th man than throw extra cash at veteran reclamation project with a fairly high chance to flaming out and being a sunk cost that sits on the roster for months while they try to get their money back on him. There's enough depth at AAA (and with rising guys from AA) that we're unlikely to run out of OF this season. I'd rather assume risk on young players in the system than bringing in injured/marginal vets, because without more payroll space we're taking on risk somewhere. Give Keirsey or Helman a real shot.