jmlease1

Right now I'd probably go Abel ahead of Matthews, but we're going to see plenty of both this season I'm sure. I'll admit, I'm tantalized by Abel's electric stuff, and if he's managed to mitigate his control problems even a little he could be really fun to watch.

I'm a big fan of GG, but he's rated 7th here. How much higher to you put him? I think people have come around to your way of thinking on Raya, which is why he's fallen all the way down to 15. Do you think he should be off altogether? Who would you replace him with? For me the underrated is Mendez, who didn't miss a beat after the trade and did a great job in AA at 21. Overrated is DeBarge, who might not be as good defensively as people think and has serious questions about his hit tool at this point.

Technically, this is true, but the reality is when you decline to offer arbitration to a player, they are gone. If nothing else, pride gets in the way (as seen by Eddie Rosario and other players across MLB). They'll take less from someone else rather than go back to the club that "didn't believe in them". And frankly, it's exceptionally likely that someone else would have made an offer on Ober that would have been at least at his arbitration number, considering the shortage in starting pitching across the league. As disappointing as Ober was in 2025, there are still plenty of teams that would have killed to have him as their 5th starter.

Shelton or Zoll? GM probably has the final say on the roster.

Declining arbitration on Ober would have been a firing offense for any GM. (I really don't understand the people who give up on players at the first sign of trouble; if you get rid of every player who has a rough season you're not going to have much of a team left...and you're going to see a lot more players have success in other team's uniforms) Ober actually started out 2025 quite well, except for that initial start...which he never should have made. Rocco and Maki blew that one, starting a pitcher who was sick rather than drop down one in the rotation. A dumb decision that threw away a game. Part of the manager & pitching coach's job is protect players from themselves and sit guys when they aren't right, even if they try to do the ol' "trust me, I'm fine!" routine. (I mean, Buxton could have his arm ripped off by a combine harvester and he'd probably say he's good to go the next day.) The mechanics fell apart in June and while he never got all the way back on track...he was figuring out how to survive out there (10 starts in August & Sept and he had Game Scores of 50+ in 6 of them, 60+ in 4) even with less velocity. And it wasn't just against crap teams that had quit on the season: he pitched well against KC twice in that stretch. If the velocity comes most of the way back, Ober should be fine, especially if the changeup is working. Maybe it won't get there and he's going to be just another back of the rotation dude going forward...but those guys still go for $10-12M on the open market. We're paying Ober $5.2M and still have another year of team control.

Not worried about Ryan. He'll be fine. Too early to know on Ober; let's see where he is in his last start before camp breaks on his velocity; if he's averaging 90+mph and touching 92-93 then I think he'll be fine. And even if he's down a bit, it doesn't mean he won't be able to pitch, it just means he'll be more inconsistent and more like a 4-5 starter rather than a #2. Personally, I'm hoping that whatever happens, Bailey Ober kicks ass this season and shoves it in the face of every single person who wants to throw him into the tip. I mean, congratulations to the trolls: y'all know how to get me wound up.

the consistent lower body injuries are a little worrisome; you can't say he's got the perfect body for baseball if he dings up his legs in some fashion every year. Hopefully this latest hammy problem doesn't linger. I'm less concerned about issues with his hitting: this all sounds like normal development and recognition, and he sure seems capable of continual improvement. Perfectly happy for the power to add as he moves along and he matures his game (and body). He just barely turned 21 and he's already in AAA. The biggest concern I have right now is that the Twins will stick with mediocre veterans because they're veterans rather than play the kids; there's greater risk that Walker Jenkins doesn't reach Target Field until late in 2026 because he's blocked by Trevor Larnach et al than him not being ready to test himself against MLB pitching.

Until Houston shows his bat is more useful than a noodle, he's not putting all that much pressure on anyone.

I don't think it is a start from scratch competition; SWR has pitched too well in MLB over the past 2 seasons for him not to get more consideration. I think the competition between Bradley, Matthews, and Abel has been more open, though I think there was a preference for Bradley to earn a spot. So far Abel has been the strongest of any of them, but it's spring training so who knows. But I agree: based on what we know, it should be Abel & Bradley in the last 2 spots, with Matthews as next man up in AAA with Morris.

I think that's a little unfair to Bell, who crushed in the second half of last season and simply stripping that horrific start in March/April shows a hitter who is more than slightly above average, especially with Bell's earlier production in his career. It's notable that the only season bell was below average as a hitter was the weird pandemic season, and while I wouldn't expect him to return to 2019 form, a 120 OPS+ is certainly viable, and that's much better than slightly above average. Larnach can produce some if he's protected from LHP. He can't hit LHP, he just can't. All his additional exposure (he got over 1/3 of his PA's against LHP in 2025 alone) didn't really help him: an OPS of .605 still stinks, even if it is an "improvement". But we simply don't have much room for a player like Larnach who has so little defensive utility and doesn't rake enough against RHP to be worth it for us. Hopefully Bell carries is fine 2nd half over to this season and rakes. Would prefer Larnach be dealt for whatever we can get to open up the opportunity for other, younger hitters, since I don't see him as having much of a future here.

I do like Lee's hands and arm in the infield. It is nice to feel confident that he will make the plays that he gets to, so if he can expand that range with quicker reactions, a better first step, better positioning, and/or just getting a little faster that would be great to see. Ideally, he gets forced off SS not because he's not cutting it there but because Culpepper pushes him. The real question for me is where his bat lands. He did improve from year 1 in MLB to year 2, but it wasn't a big leap. He's got to be more selective at the plate and swing at pitches he can drive, not just ones he can reach. Fewer grounders, more line drives, please. He has shown that he can turn on a ball and drop it in the seats, which should help him some; pitchers shouldn't be able to just groove one in as a "get over" pitch on a 3-ball count, so if he works those counts a little better he should see better results. Not giving up on him, but he's got work to do to stick as a starter, otherwise he's heading to the bench as a utility guy.

He did everything you could really ask of a prospect in his first full season of pro ball. Earned his promotion up to AA and kept on playing well. Probably got a little worn down as the season went along, so it'll be interesting to see if he can build up his strength and stamina without losing the speed. The defense was better than advertised in 2025, so I'll start worrying about his ability to stick at SS when he shows he can't. He's got the arm and speed to be good there, and he can improve his positioning with experience. Be interesting to see how he does in laying off breaking balls out of the zone this year. If he starts tightening that up it will bode well for his future. I expect to see him in AAA this season.

Wallner was really, really good in 2023 and in 2024. Are we really still arguing this? He had a down year in 2025, and now it's his last chance? Why is 2025 so much more determinative for you than 2023 or 2024? Could it be because it had the result you expect to see from a high K player and you want those players gone from the franchise? Look, if Wallner really does have a hole in his swing (that took pitchers 2 1/2 seasons to find) and he can't make adjustments, then he probably will struggle this season like he did in 2025 (even though he was still above league average as a hitter). Feel free to serve the crow...if he sucks. But even with the arguments that he "failed" last season and can be exploited, etc he had an OPS+ of 110. I will never understand the instant gratification thinking that has people looking to dump a player with a career OPS+ of 127 at the first sign of trouble.

I beg of you, do not modify "unique" (or "historic"). These are binary terms: something is either unique or it isn't. My biggest grammatical pet peeve. Otherwise, great article. I still think Abel & Bradley are more likely for the rotation than the bullpen, but I could see Zebby landing there, and would not be sad to see his 4-seamer working in the back of the bullpen...

The best result for the Twins is that Wallner returns to his hitting form of 2023-2024, but also plays more at DH because someone like GG is demanding playing time in the OF. (We'll see who fits better defensively; I think GG can be less harmful there, even if he doesn't have a tool like Wallner's arm, but YMMV) I do think there's a reasonable chance that Wallner is less painful in RF this season; while he played full time after coming back from injury in June on, I don't think his legs were ever all the way back under him in 2025. That may have impacted him at the plate as well? There's always going to be a cohort around here who will despise his game and minimize his positive impacts while loudly noting all of his deficiencies; such is life, I guess? RF seems to have plenty of depth, but it should: it's historically the easiest position to fill with the least defensive responsibilities outside of DH. Wallner should be able to hold it down just fine until someone outhits him with more defensive impact. It could end up being where Walker Jenkins gets a lot of time initially if he shows he's ready and Rodriguez has laid claim to LF. Oh, darn. What a shame that would be! :P

Overall BA for MLB last season was .245. It hasn't cleared .250 since 2019.

Larnach was pretty solid before the foot injuries. Wasn't quick, but the range wasn't terrible and he had a good arm and catch the ball well. Ever since the turf toe he looks more like he's 38 than 28 out there. It's a bummer. Nice to hear Martin looking solid in CF. He's had the tools, but looked uncertain out there.

Huge talent. If he can incorporate a little more aggression into his approach at the plate, attacking pitches that he can handle earlier in counts, it will likely mitigate some of his issues with K's. The other issue he's got is health: he just hasn't stayed on the field enough. At least he doesn't seem to be having a recurrence of the issues that he's had surgery on, but dude has never played 100 games in a season. His profile at the plate does give reasons to be skeptical: there's not a lot of contact, and you'd think it would be harder for him to collect the walks against MLB pitching. But he does make loud contact and clearly knows the strike zone. (and he will add on defense, not subtract) It does occasionally seem like some people around here want him to fail. Maybe because of the K's, maybe because he's a Falvey prospect, but it's disheartening.

You could argue for Joe Ryan starting? Keaschall certainly gets some (deserved) love. And there's probably some people that would argue the best reason to watch the Twins this year is to see how the prospects do? For me, it'll be Buxton, who seems to want to spend his entire career here, and I hope to hell it happens. I'd rather pass on the supposed trade value and keep one of the most electrifying players I've ever seen play the game, a guy who brings joy and excitement to the ballpark every time. (and I hope he's as good a dude off the field as he seems to be. because he seems like a pretty good dude.)

Byron Buxton patrolling CF is arguably the best reason to watch the Twins this year. He's one of my favorite Twins of all-time, one of the most exciting players the Twins have ever had. Sucks that's he's had so many injury issues, but when he plays (and he seems to have finally been able to play without pain last season, huzzah!) he is a delight to watch. Buxton's homers are great, but it's even better when he rips one into the gap and starts flying around the bases. Or when he pokes a single into RF or LF that makes the fielder have to move a little to chase down and suddenly the defender realizes they have to really hustle or Buck is going to leg it into a double. I think CF will be in good shape beyond Buxton soon; both Rodriguez and Jenkins can handle the position just fine. Rodriguez is probably the better CF, but his history of picking up frequent dings might be a reason to look to Jenkins, who isn't as good out there but still should be above average. Either way, they are not far off, and I would think if Byron (knock on wood!) goes down for an extended period they would get a call up, presuming one doesn't make the opening day roster. (me, I would have Rodriguez in MLB from the jump) There's sufficient coverage from Martin & Roden for now if Rodriguez isn't considered ready yet, and I think Outman would land in AAA if he gets cut and we really need more insurance. The Twins have OF options, especially if the prospects graduate and are allowed to play...

If Bell can hit like he did last season without the horrific, awful, terrible, no-good March/April that hung around his neck, then he's going to be a good add to the lineup and an effective hitter at 1B or DH. Yes, his defense isn't good and he has about as much range as a tree but he can hit. If his splits normalize a bit, his ability as a switch hitter will make sense in the lineup. As a 1-year option there's not much risk and pretty good reward if he hits like he did the second half of the season. Clemens can give him some relief on defense in the late innings as well (I'm less excited about Caratini as a backup 1B, but as a 3rd option he's ok). It comes down to hitting. If we get last season minus the dreadful start, we're going to be pretty happy with Bell in the lineup. If he's closer to league average as a hitter and sits in the 100-105 OPS+ range, then we're going to be less happy because that's not a lot of offense for someone who doesn't add on defense.

Feels a little high for me, but I tend to rank a bit more on production than projection. But he's definitely got boatloads of talent. If he can stick at catcher, then his potential will be higher, because at any other position he really needs to hit and it's hard to know where he's at on that skill. It seems like for every SS and C prospect (except for Houston) there's someone suggesting that they can't/won't stick at that position.

I think the thing to remember with Outman is he crushed AAA just fine in 2025, so is him pounding the ball in spring training just a repeat of his AAA work? Dude has always hit AAA pitching. He just stopped hitting MLB pitching and I have to wonder if his spring training is nothing but a mirage. I'm sure there have to be other metrics on which to judge him, but I don't really have them sitting on my ass in MN... Personally, I don't think Outman should have played his way on to the roster. I think the front office is still enamored of him, and would really like to be proven right on that deal.

I'm not going to get too hung up on KLaw being the outlier: he often prefers it that way. He's also the guy who was way down on Kaelen Culpepper...and then did a big revision after Culpepper did great jumping up multiple levels last season. So, you know. I think it's pretty fair to rank them in that middle third, at the edge of top 10. They've got enough injury concerns about top prospects to catch a ding, their preference on stocking up on late round college pitchers doesn't excite prospect developers and those guys tend to rise up older, which will always keep them out of the rankings. And frankly, they've had enough trouble graduating highly rated prospects to productive MLB players that they deserve a ding on that side too. But there's plenty of talent in the system, and much of it at AA or above, which is where we need it to be. Hopefully they can get them through. I'd love to see our farm system rankings plummet because we graduated Roriguez, Jenkins, Culpepper, Rojas, Mendez, etc into productive MLB players that can form a new core...

Do spring training stats mean anything or not, is one of the questions. Roden has been raking so far this spring...but Outman is hitting quite well too. I'm seriously down on Outman and don't want him being given a roster spot on scholarship...but who actually deserves to get the job is hard for me to answer. Larnach seems like a poor choice to continue on at this point, and I wish there was a trade out there that could bring back a competent RH reliever, and I'd be willing to add a lottery ticket prospect to get that done. That would position us to have someone like Roden or Rodriguez start in LF, free up DH time for Bell et al, and Martin would be a good fit as a 4th OF, especially if you have the R2 boys on the roster as potential backups for CF. I think it's time to break the logjam. deal Larnach, for whatever you can get, Cut Outman (if he wants to go to AAA, fine; I have no problem with him playing the season as a veteran injury replacement in Saint Paul). Let either Roden or Rodriguez seize the job with Martin playing against every LHP in existence and occasionally getting some time against RHP (with an "R" sliding to RF at times to get Wallner over to DH more) I don't hold Roden's poor debut against him; it's a tiny sample of his first test at MLB. I think Rodriguez can hit and field if he stays healthy. I'm enthusiastic about GG as well.