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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I'm unimpressed with how the Twins are handling long/middle relief currently. They need to have 1-2 pitchers who can give them 2 innings without being cooked for three days and the continued 1 inning only usage isn't working great. Varland is young and was a starter until recently. there shouldn't really be an issue for him to throw 2 innings, but he's already seems to be defined as a 1 inning guy. Either he or Sands or Topa should have been asked to throw 2 on Sat so we weren't looking at 4 guys throwing back to back on Sunday. Of course the fact that Paddack hasn't been able to pitch 5 yet and neither has Ober is a bigger issue...but they mismanaged Ober's first start as well; maybe not such a bright idea to run out the guy who lost 8 lbs in one day because he was so damn sick after just giving him a banana bag? the starters can't keep running out early exits; we've had 5 starts from 3 guys that have totaled 18 innings. If Ober and Paddack are both going to stink, we're in for a rough ride. I would also say that babying SWR shouldn't be an option, so we'll see what they do today. But at 82 pitches through 4, is it really unrealistic to ask him to go out for another inning? he'd been limiting the damage and half of his innings were clean and efficient. Either you trust him or you don't. Rocco & Maki have not impressed with the pitching management so far, and it's fair to criticize, because while some of this is on the players (WTF is wrong with Jax?) some of this is also about actual choices.
  2. jmlease1
    20/20 hindsight. 2017 draft is an interesting one: to date, no player in the first round has put up 10 bWAR yet (though Greene is very close). No pick in the top 10 has more bWAR than Lewis except for Greene. the #3 pick has already been traded once, and the #4 pick is already out of baseball. the #5 pick had one quality season before turning back into a pumpkin, getting hurt, and getting traded. easily the most productive player in the whole draft was a 2nd round pick. It's a good reminder of just how many variables are involved in player development and what a crap shoot even a top pick is. Royce still has tremendous talent, and it sucks that he can't stay on the field. I understand the dilemma he's got: try to ease back a little to stay healthy vs play as hard as he has his whole life. It has to be hard to make an adjustment, especially when it's something related to effort. But he needs to find a way to stay on the field. he's shown he can do special things when he's right. It sounds like his rehab is progressing; absent a setback it sounds like we will see him in May? I doubt they'll send him out for more than a week or so on a rehab assignment. Hopefully it's beginning of May and he can get rolling again.
  3. jmlease1
    I think his hands and footwork are ok. His arm and throwing are the biggest concern with him, and you can see some of his worst problems fielding happen when he's thinking about the throw and starts rushing. I think he could do fine at 1B with enough reps and a good tutor, but he's got to hit. And he has to learn to not take his struggles at the plate into the field as well, which I think we saw last season. Julien showed notable improvement at 2B in the second half of 2023 but that evaporated in 2024, especially when he was flailing at the plate. I still like Julien and he hit well enough in 2023 for me to think it wasn't a fluke. But it's really on him at this point. He has to do damage on hittable pitches and show better pitch recognition. He knows the strike zone, which is critical, but has to be able to consistently hit pitches in the zone. He's got a way to go, and hasn't done much with his early season opportunity yet. Of course, neither have a lot of hitters for the Twins...
  4. jmlease1
    Easy to see why Hill is #11 on the Twins prospect list. That's a very nice start to the season, and I'm happy to see him in A-ball rather than in rookie ball. Lot of upside with him and I'm excited to see how quickly he develops. Thrilled to see Prielipp pitching. Health is the most important part for him right now, and I really don't care that much about the results yet. Not sure if they should keep developing him as a starter with his history; just don't know if his arm can hold up to the pounding and with his stuff he could be a deadly weapon in the bullpen.
  5. jmlease1
    Disappointing to see Ober labor through only 4; he's an important part of this rotation and they need him to get deeper into games. Hopefully the increase in velocity is a sign that he's getting closer to where he was last season. Good work by the bullpen, but I'm a little surprised and disappointed that Varland is being used exclusively as a 1-inning guy; I don't think they're very interested in pitching him back to back either, so why not let him go 2 especially in a game like this where you needed 5 relievers to finish it? Seems like they've decided to run 7 1-inning guys and a long man, which I don't love. But the bullpen did a nice job in what they were asked to do, and you can see why people were high on this group going into the season. I'd like to see the offense be more consistent; one big inning and then nothing is a bit nervous. But when they put up 6 runs on the board, I'm not going to complain too much about how they got there. Hopefully things are starting to warm up with some guys and they can get rolling. A win is a win, and now they're in position to take the series. Let's goooooo...
  6. jmlease1
    Twins didn't pay Margot anywhere near $10M. Remember, a significant chunk of Margot's salary was being paid elsewhere. It still was a trade that didn';t work out, but the Twins FO didn't pay Margot $6M more than Taylor, even if Margot made $6M more. And the Twins clearly wanted Taylor back, and this is where agents and pride get in the way. Twins would have brought Taylor back for $5M, but he wanted more like $8M and wouldn't come down...so he ended up signing for less with someone else. You see this all the time where guys can't take less than they think they're worth from their current squad, and then when their market is settled and there aren't a lot of choices left, they go elsewhere for less rather than admit they were wrong about their team's offer.
  7. jmlease1
    Miller was 18 with a great glove. It's not unreasonable to think "hey, we'll work with this kid, develop his hit tool, he'll get stronger and hit enough to be a possible SS". A lot of times with a late first/compensation pick/high second you're looking at guys that have 1-2 elite tools or guys that have 3-5 good tools. Not crazy to take a swing at a guy like Miller, especially when it's hard to find players who have the chops to be superior defenders at SS. It's why the Dodgers were interested even after a couple of years in the twins system where he didn't hit much. but he sure looks like a guy who can't hit. Doncon will be at 3B or 2B sooner rather than later, but his bat is interesting and has potential. And he has the advantage of being a year younger than Miller.
  8. jmlease1
    Yeah, the Margot trade was a bad one. period. he sucked last season, and couldn't fill the role he was needed for, and they almost certainly would have been better off looking elsewhere. being adequate against LHP while being awful against RHP (which is where half his ABs came) and being poor in the OF...hells bells, we would have been better off with Kiersey even if he couldn't hit LHP. I think Doncon is more likely to play meaningful time in MLB, assuming he can stay healthy. He's got some upside as a hitter, even if he's a little limited defensively. Miller is an excellent SS, but he hasn't developed at all as a hitter and shown no signs of it either. maybe he'll do better in AA the second time around, but pitchers have no reason to fear his bat at all and can simply overwhelm him. His upside is defensive replacement/utility guy, but his bat looks so weak right now that he's most likely only going to see MLB if a team has him in AAA and gets hit with a bunch of injuries where they have no other viable SS options. While Miller's glove plays, he looks like a complete zero on offense, so how comfortable is a team going to be even as a utility guy? He's only 22 so there's still a chance he finds an approach at the plate that makes him a legitimate SS option, but he's never had a season with an OPS over .700 in his career. the walks dried up in AA because he couldn't steal walks from pitchers who couldn't throw strikes any longer, and was facing pitchers who were advanced enough to understand that if they ran a 3 ball count they could throw a fastball over the plate without fear. For those who were convinced the Dodgers were going to transform him through their vaunted development system...he looks like exactly the same guy: all glove, no hit.
  9. jmlease1
    lot of bleeders in those hits, plus a "balk" that either wasn't a balk or they should be calling about 47 of them a game now. he was much better in his second start, but the first one looked like it had a combination of him not being super sharp, bad luck, and a pretty key bad call, not just his own error. regardless, he definitely looked like a lockdown #1 in outing number 2, which was good to see. Hopefully he finds some consistency and gets on a roll.
  10. jmlease1
    I will be thrilled to be wrong about Bader; I'm still very worried about his overuse against RHP, but if he's able to ride a hot streak early while the Twins are otherwise struggling at the plate, I'll take it. If it means I have to eat crow at the end of the season, I prefer mine grilled. Pablo did great. one slip to give up the dinger, but awesome to see him mowing through 7 without much trouble. yes, CWS stink but they should be a better squad than last season, and even crap teams win 40% of their games (usually). Little surprised that they went to Coulombe; with him having pitched the day before and no off day today we now don't have a LHP available until Friday at best. Wouldn't this have been a good spot for Topa? 5 run lead, 1 inning, and him being rested? real relief for Correa, who had been unlucky so far, to get a hit and then follow it up with another one. I suspect he'd been pressing a little. I'm quite confident he'll hit so long as he's mostly healthy, so glad to see him off the schnide.
  11. jmlease1
    It's not a great start for Miranda at the plate, but it's also not been a good start at the pate for everyone not named Bader or Castro, so I'm not going to single Miranda out too much. But he does need to get going; he's got too much talent to struggle for a month or longer and the Twins need him to hit. We'll see if he can stop expanding the strike zone? I will say, he's been doing fine defensively, so it's good to see he's not tracking his woes at the plate into the field, and he's made at least one play already that I would not have expected from him this season (charging in on a slow bouncer with a runner crossing in front of him, he made a clean play and good throw to get the runner against StL. Feel like he would have rushed the throw last season assuming he got to it cleanly in the first place). Hope that continues, it would be nice to feel confident in him at 3B.
  12. jmlease1
    Hard not to be intrigued by Hill, and Mercedes has big potential. But it feels like a roster where we need some guys to step forward and show some quality a bit more than usual. There's more known star power at Cedar Rapids to start the year than Ft. Myers, but it doesn't mean there aren't some guys that could take some big developmental steps. I'm curious to see how Chourio does this year after having last year to adapt. His speed is intriguing at the very least.
  13. jmlease1
    thinner group of prospects at AA this season (for now, anyways) than we've maybe become accustomed to? But any roster that has Walker Jenkins on it is pretty exciting to me. Hope Prielipp can stay healthy. Be great to be looking at him as a LH power arm relief option later in the year. Huge talent if his arm can take it. Fairly impressive that his stuff doesn't seem to have dropped off at all despite the injuries, surgeries, and so little game time. Feels like Olivar isn't going to stick at C, so he'll need that bat to keep producing. I like Rosario, but he's got to make more contact if he wants to get past AA. (and I feel like he should be a better OF than he's shown; he's got good athleticism but he's been meh at best in the field)
  14. jmlease1
    I suspect that the benefits, if any, will be relatively small and incremental over the whole of MLB. But it could make a difference for players who have been struggling to square up on balls as much as they need to and are close to getting more barrels on the bat but are just slightly off. Guys who are doing well already at getting the barrel on the ball might not see much difference. It'll be interesting to see at the end of the season if there are significant differences for a relevant sample of the players using the new bats. I have no problem with this: the bat meets the rules as written, it's available to all players and teams...go ahead an experiment. No difference than going from ash to maple to me.
  15. jmlease1
    actually scoring runs sure does make the game easier. Nice to see the offense bust out. Maybe that will be what they need to relax and play to capability. 10 hits and 6 walks is going to score a lot of runs. I will take it all day. Thought SWR did ok, but threw a lot of pitches. I suspect he wasn't loving the cold weather. Varland getting the win is a good reminder why Pitcher Wins are a dumb stat. Varland did a good job blowing some guys away, but needs to pitch a little smarter because hitters will punish his fastball up in the zone. Good bounce back for Alcala. Glad to get the win. Now, go win the series.
  16. jmlease1
    Probably because he missed so much time last season that they want to at least have a reality check with him at high A before slotting up up to Wichita? He hasn't quite turned 21 yet, so seems fine. Winokur is a fascinating prospect. He's got great athleticism, but still probably won't be able to stick at SS (I've heard Culpepper is definitely better there), so does it make sense to move him now, especially with DeAndrade & Culpepper both at Cedar Rapids? It sounds like he's plenty athletic for the OF, and it wouldn't hurt at all to have him as a giant target at 1B... I'll be interested to see how he hits this season. Soto is very exciting and I'm glad he's in high A where he'll get challenged more. Looking forward to seeing how he refines his pitches this season.
  17. jmlease1
    well, a hit is a hit. but he also had 2 walks. perfectly acceptable day for Jeffers. No complaints about Gasper drawing 2 as well. Thanks, Willi for getting another hit. Everyone else go back to your hotel room and think about what you failed to do...
  18. jmlease1
    Yikes. 2 hits? Only 2 effing hits? Paddack demonstrating that spring training is meaningless. Did he have the same virus as Ober? because that's just awful. but I'm still far more concerned about the horrendous offense, where apparently only 1-2 players per game are currently allowed to not suck. Martin Perez is the definition of Just Another Guy as a starter, but once again apparently all you have to be is a southpaw to ruin the Twins day. Appreciate that Jeffers showed up, but...yuck. No need to watch the replay tonight, that's for sure!
  19. jmlease1
    I think there's reasons why Gardy flamed out when he tried to make a go of it in Detroit and it wasn't just his health. But I guess if you want to go back to the day that the backup 2B has to hit second in the order because that's where the starting 2B hit, or your best reliever is only used as a 9th inning save situation only guy, etc than bring back a Gardy-type? me? I'll pass. I will say the one thing I find the most baffling on this site (and I'm not calling out anyone specifically; y'all can decide on your own if you meet the category) are the people who seem to take joy out of the twins failing/struggling...especially when they don't build the "type" of team the poster wanted or play guys that aren't liked or make decisions that are seen as "wrong". I don't understand the pleasure some seem to get by saying "see?!?! I told you they suck!" about the team that you supposedly root for...
  20. jmlease1
    Baldelli didn't do well to help his team win in the first series. I've generally defended him over the last few seasons because a) I thought he was doing a decent enough job, and 2) I think we overrate the impact of managers in baseball most of the time. But not great work from him this time. I get that there wasn't anyone already warming in the bullpen when Alcala took a shot like that, but they could have had someone start stretching immediately upon going out to check on Alcala and if you pull the pitcher because of an injury last time I checked the new guy gets extra time/pitches to warm up, even if they do have to do it on the mound in front of god and country. Considering how Alcala has imploded in the past, that would have been a good time to play it safe with him rather than hope his adrenaline would carry him through. I think it's fair to assign some measure of blame for running Ober out there coming off illness too. You'd think if Ober was barfing on the off-day you'd let Paddack know "hey you might need to be next man up"? the Bader usage is complicated for me: I don't want to see Bader out in LF that much when RHP are on the mound, so I was unhappy with the opening day lineup. Then Bader does great? but much more likely to see him do what he did on sunday: play good defense and add nothing at the plate. Knowing that Julien was also ill this weekend makes me less unhappy that he basically sat all weekend, but I'm already worried that Bader will get overexposed this season. I'm most concerned about the offense. It really didn't look good out there, with our best hitters doing very little. And it's not just an issue with approach "too much swinging for the fences, too many Ks, etc" that we frequently hear from people around here. Sure, they struck out 11 times in Game 1, but at least they had 8 hits that game; the 8 total hits in Games 2 & 3 were pretty terrible. game 1 at least they had some great defensively plays made against them; Games 2 & 3 things were much more routine. the offense looks rough right now from everyone except Willi Castro & Trevor Larnach (who may have been 0-4 on sunday, but has been doing fine so far). I'm not too worried about the starting pitching yet; Pablo was a little unlucky (the "balk" was questionable and there were some real bleeders) and his stuff looked ok. Ryan looked pretty good and seems back, and I'll give Ober a pass since he was sick. The offense needs to start showing up. If they start hitting thing improve a lot. If they start the season in a swoon, then it's going to get ugly.
  21. jmlease1
    Lot of guys to be watching in AAA: deep rotation, some highly ranked prospects in the lineup, and some interesting other players to wonder about. And Eeles isn't even back from his knee injury yet! Wasn't sure where Keaschall was going to start the season, but it says something that he's in Saint Paul. Clearly the Twins have no doubts about him as a hitter, and having him in AAA from the jump makes it much more likely that we'll see him in MLB at some point this season. Glad to see Emma playing already; was a little worried about his sprained ankle and him missing so much spring training. That bat will play. Think we'll need his offense in MLB, but we'll see. Hope he can stay healthy. Nice job by Festa. I hope he crushes AAA so hard that it becomes very easy for the Twins to deal Paddack. It'll be interesting to see how the sinker plays for him, but it could be a nice weapon to get through hitters more efficiently.
  22. jmlease1
    It's just one game, so I refuse to overreact. But this might be the template for Twins losses this season: starter isn't sharp early, defense does us no favors, offense never really gets going, other team plays pretty well. But that's always going to be a losing formula? Some good and bad out there for sure: Ty France looks meh fielding out there...but did a nice job on scoops. Correa was a bit unlucky at the plate and didn't get the hits we needed...but also started a great DP Jax just looked a little off and really labored, but Topa's velocity looked up Wallner didn't get it going at all, but didn't look lost like he did at the start of last season either Larnach had good ABs which led to good results Bader looked great. Hope I'm wrong about him at the plate; it's just one game, but he did great. Miranda handled 3B pretty well (with some help from France); he made a really nice play charging in with a runner dancing in front of him that was good to see Varland looked just fine in the bullpen; I suspect he might have gone an additional inning if there wasn't an off day today? Twins just started a little flat. Maybe it's the rain delay, but StL had to deal with that too. (though it might be easier to handle when you're at home?) Need to come out better on Sat.
  23. jmlease1
    Bold prediction: Twins will have 5 players hit 20 HR in 2025
  24. jmlease1
    It's more about who is playing (Bader) against the RHP rather than just the RH/LH split. Bader should not be getting starts against RHP in the corners unless we have injuries that make it an issue. Larnach or Kiersey should be in the lineup in LF; if it's Kiersey, then Larnach should be the DH, and if it's Larnach, then Julien should be the DH. It's just one game, but if this is how the team intends to deploy Bader on the regular then it becomes malpractice unless Bader suddenly turns into a much better hitter against RHP than he has been since 2021.
  25. jmlease1
    I think this is a good Twins team. Quite a few things need to go disastrously wrong for it to be a bad team; even with the early infield injuries the team hasn't exhausted its depth yet, none of the injuries are looking that serious (it's not like anyone is lost for the season, and with all of them we should be thinking weeks rather than months, with Lewis potentially being the exception, but even there the odds are good that he'll be back in May, not June or July) and we also still have reinforcements in the minors that have potential to be real contributors: Keaschall might need time to get his arm in shape, but his bat looks ready. Rodriguez is rehabbing, but his bat is tremendous. And maybe the Sire of Ft Myers is your breakout guy this year? the rotation looks good and deep (and there's experience there too) from the jump, with real options should anyone falter or get hurt. The bullpen has some injuries, but also still looks deep and talented. The infield defense is a bit of a concern; outside of Correa and the catchers, everyone is average at best, poor at worst and likely below average until Lee gets back. the OF defense isn't bad; Larnach is more than solid when he's not battling turf toe, Buxton is still excellent, Bader is strong, and Wallner has the arm to be a threat. Kiersey gives them even more late inning defense. Not a lot of big holes? I think the biggest concern is what's the upside for the lineup? Is there enough there even if everyone is healthy? if we get first half Miranda & Jeffers, and 2022 France with a little more from Larnach the floor goes up pretty fast. there are a lot of players I'm excited to watch on this team. Lot of guys that are easy to root for. Healthy Buxton is one of the most fun players I've ever seem in my entire life, and I'm getting old, so I've seen a lot of them. the starters are pretty fun. there are young guys to root for a breakout.
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