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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Rooker definitely has some flaws, but the power is still impressive. He's been pushed through the system fairly aggressively, so getting 1 repeat in AAA for some finishing wouldn't be a terrible result. But let's see where he finishes the season, and if he can trade some K's for BBs. Smeltzer impresses. If he keeps shutting guys down in AAA that's going to look like a very fine acquisition.
  2. jmlease1
    Solid job by Stewart. He's absolutely right: he needs to get at least one more pitch working in order to stick up here, but he did a nice job once that sinker started sinking like usual and commanding the pitches that were working for those last 3 innings. I''d say he showed why the Twins have him on the Rochester shuttle and how he can compete in MLB. I'm starting to really enjoy Cron's laser shot HRs. I know launch angle is the big thing right now, but hardhit line drives play well in any era, and its pretty fun to watch those streak out. He's been a good signing, worked his way out of an early slump and seems to be seeing the ball very well right now. And the defense has been very very good, something Morrison never brought to the table. I was surprised Marwin was back today, that collision looked really awful. Glad to hear there were no concussion issues and that he's feeling ok. He certainly played well again; Marwin in May is the guy we were expecting to get and he's another weapon.
  3. jmlease1
    It's not a year of control, it's an option year. reduces the number of times you can send the guy back down to work in the minors if he struggles in the majors. It's hard to think that Graterol isn't learning things in AA. For one thing, you have significantly more advanced hitters and increasing numbers of hitters who have real chances of playing in MLB. more sophisticated approaches at the plate, as well as working with other pitchers who have more refined repertoires. Look, I don't want to hold him back if he's ready and its fine to bring a guy up from AA straight to the majors, but I don't see too many scenarios where Graterol comes up to MLB as anything other than a reliever later in the year. In other news, Garver looks so confident at the plate right now. Sure doesn't seem to have any aftereffects from the concussion which is terrific news. He's got a plan up there, no question. Hope Marwin really is ok. That looked really scary last night (and the slomo was awful). Fortunately, with Astudillo coming back we have some depth if he needs some time off.
  4. jmlease1
    Good for Raley! If he can be adequate defensively in the OF to give himself some positional flexibility he may have a future, especially with hitting like this. I think that's going to be critical in the future for a lot of these sluggers; you're going to see fewer and fewer pure DHs because roster spots are at such a premium for position players. Hopefully Raley has figuring something out at the plate and this is more who he is. Rooker has legit power, but the low BA and loads of Ks are concerning. He hasn't been walking enough to be a real "3 true outcomes" player that allows you to overlook his flaws yet. I'm rooting for him, but he's going to either need to make more consistent contact or draw quite a few more BBs. Jax is an interesting player. It will be interesting to see whether his stuff holds up all season with him pounding the strike zone; he's thrown so few innings in his pro career that we just don't know about him yet. He's certainly not afraid of the level of competition, and is off to a strong start. Have to feel like he stays in AA this year, especially having had such a light workload as a pro. (Fall league again or winter ball candidate so he can pitch more innings?)
  5. jmlease1
    I'm sorry, but it's a ridiculous idea to bring up Graterol at this point. He's only 7 starts in at AA and you want to toss him in the fire (and burn an option year) to pitch in the doubleheader? He's not even on the 40-man yet. Be patient on Graterol, he's the best option we have to develop an ace out of the minors right now, that's far more important than grabbing him for a doubleheader against the Tigers in May. Stewart is the right choice, not just because of where he falls in Rochester's rotation but because he's also pitched in MLB and had a couple of successful outings. He's also going to understand that he's on the Rochester shuttle until he proves it. Thorpe is a guy you want to bring up when he's going to have a chance to stick for more than a spot start, and hes shown he still has things to do in AAA. He only made 4 starts there last season. Littell is certainly an option, and will probably get the next shot if Stewart tanks it, but he got rocked pretty hard when he was up last year. Poppen isn't on the 40-man either, and has made exactly 1 start above AA, and frankly I'm not prepared to say hes better than Stewart at all. He's a year older than Stewart and while he deserved the promotion out of AA, the shiny ERA is a bit deceptive. He's walking way too many batters to have any confidence that he's ready to face MLB pitching. Stewart is the right call for now.
  6. jmlease1
    I'm guessing Blankenhorn will still get some ABs in the infield this season, but it's an interesting question. He may have finally figured it out and is unlocking that power potential that we hoped might be there. I was pretty down on Blankenhorn after last season; he didn't have a great year at Ft. Myers, he was awful in the AFL, he just was starting to look like a guy who was getting capped out against better competition. Happy to be wrong about him. Still early, still small sample size, but it's really good news that jumping up a level early in the year hasn't slowed him down this year. Rough night for Sano, but at least it wasn't a 3-4K outing. sometimes the ball doesn't drop.
  7. jmlease1
    I'm guessing that 0.1% slider was a misclassified cutter/s, if that's the kind of movement he's getting on that sucker. There's no question that he's showing a much more effective pitch mix. I'm sure there will be some regression as teams get more tape on it, but he's got the velocity (increased velocity) on the 4-seamer to be effective there too, he seems to be locating his change well, and they're not teeing off on the sinker, so even with better analysis it doesn't change the fact that he's got 4 pitches to work with on a hitter. I was lukewarm at best on signing perez. felt pretty "meh" at the time, one of those "I know this guy, I'm sure I can get more out of him" moves that always drove me crazy when the Wolves did it, but proof is in the pudding. And it's hilarious that his agent is claiming credit for telling him to start throwing a cutter, wtf is that BS?
  8. jmlease1
    If we'd had a game where the bullpen had been used hard, Gibson would have gone out for the 7th I'm sure. But we're carrying 13 freakin' pitchers right now and 2 of the guys who went out there hadn't pitched in a while and the game was out of reach. It's very appropriate bullpen management...when you carry too many pitchers. I'm still an advocate for getting back down to 12 when Sano comes back. The Polanco extension just looks better all the time, huh? I'm feeling better about Gibson with every start. It looks like he's gotten his stamina back up after that awful e.Coli issue (that was a LOT of weight loss in a short time; I'm glad he's ok and worked his way back). He's a really important pitcher for us; last year he was almost as valuable as Berrios.
  9. jmlease1
    It depends on how you look at the window, I guess. You seem to have no expectation for any players in the minors to be contributors or even stars for the future of this ballclub, and I think Falvine would argue that consistent replacement of contributors through the minors is a critical component to sustained success. the only possible way to open a 10-year window is if you hit on players in multiple draft classes along the way, not just ride a wave of a core of young players all coming together at age 25. That seems to be the plan that they're working under and they developed the MLB roster over the last two years in an attempt to be competitive with the flexibility to seize the moment if/when things come together for a particular team without mortgaging the future and ability to sign their young players if/when they've earned or project to earn star money. Last year it crapped out on them for a few reasons: 1. the team wasn't as good as the record from the previous year might have suggested, 2. they had some key injuries (and a suspension) that coincided with some young players not advancing, and 3. the short-term free agent signings ended up not working for various reasons (none of which were the same ones, btw: Reed started out well before injury and possible overuse sent him into a collapse, Lynn's early season was wrecked by missing spring training, and Morrison turned out to be washed up and no longer able to hit serious fastballs). This year we saw an adjustment in strategy for FA's, I think. Schoop is a guy coming off injury with something to prove (different than Morrison), Perez is a guy who we signed with a development plan (different than Lynn, who just didn't get a contract he thought he was worth), Cruz is a savvy veteran with a lengthy track record of success. Cron is more similar to last year's flier on Morrison, but has value in the field not just a hope that his change in approach is sustainable. Sure looks like a plan to me. For the rotation the next few years, the Twins are counting on someone emerging from their farm system. I don't think that's crazy. They've given themselves the flexibility to re-sign Gibson, unless someone throws 5/$100M at him. Berrios is still under team control and we can handle the arbitration raises. We have an option on Perez, who is looking good. So now maybe you're looking at 1 FA and 1 guy stepping up from the Stewart/Gonsalves/Thorpe trio for next year to have a good rotation again, and re-signing Odorizzi is certainly an option for the FA.
  10. jmlease1
    well, if Kirilloff hits in AA like he did in A-ball, he may be in line to replace Cron on a minimum salary. If Nick Gordon proves he can hit in AAA (after a lost year), maybe he's the replacement for Schoop, also on a league minimum salary. We also have an option on Perez for next year, so we may not need quite as many starting pitchers as you think. Polanco is locked in on a value contract, Kepler's extension looks reasonable...are we really panicked that we're going into the first year of arbitration on Berrios or Buxton or Sano?
  11. jmlease1
    I'm ok with Kohl Stewart getting tapped for the doubleheader start; Thorpe has been a little inconsistent and I'd prefer him to come up when he's more likely to stay a while rather than do his MLB debut on the ol' Rochester shuttle. Stewart has a little more experience and is less likely to get wobbly just on nerves. Nice to see some of the hitters warming up a bit. Would very much like to see Wander Javier at Cedar Rapids to see what he can do. agree it's a super small sample size, but still nice to see Nick Gordon get out of a fast start coming off injury and a tough year. If it gives him confidence, all to the better. I'd love for him to have a year where we can feel like he's a real option to play 2B next year if Schoop doesn't work out/wants to move on/gets a stupid ton of money to play elsewhere on a long-term deal.
  12. jmlease1
    I don't entirely disagree, but it's a lot easier to truly give a guy a day off for a nagging injury or a mini-slump when you have a 4 man bench. With the starters going 6+ you've got 2 guys in the 'pen who aren't being used with any regularity. I get they're playing a lot of games right now and have a double-header coming up, but I still think that using a roster spot on an insurance guy who pitches no more than once a week is a bit of a waste. It's probably pretty marginal, but I'm also not a big fan of some of the deep end of the bullpen guys we're using here too. I'd also like to note that this game rolled through in 2:30. (all three of the Twins wins against Houston clocked in around that time too.) it's lovely to have some fast moving games.
  13. jmlease1
    I'd rather have the extra bat than a 13th pitcher. Happy to send Morin back down, he seems like the definition of "Just Another Guy", and looking at bullpen usage over the last 5 days we had 4 pitchers who only threw once in that time. Unless the rotation collapses (other than Pineda, we seem to be in pretty good shape there right now with Perez & odorizzi on hot streaks, berrios being berrios and Gibson starting to round into form). get back down to 12 pitchers. having an extra crappy guy at the very back end doesn't add value, but flexibility in pinch hitting might be the right counter to tough bullpens.
  14. jmlease1
    This is what gives you faith that his success may be sustainable and not just SSS random factors: the change in approach. It's the same reason why (after having given up hope) I felt like Kyle Gibson's success last year wasn't a fluke year: change in approach/pitch mix. Now, teams may start to get at him a little more as they put together more tape of him from this season, the out of zone pitches may start to add up...but he also may be able to make adjustments with our coaching staff to null that out. We'll see, but it's pretty clear that a) the team saw something in Perez, and they had a plan for how to maximize his performance. I like plans. Much better than hope. Also, now every time Martin Perez comes to the mound, I hear Fluffy calling him "Martiiiiiiin!"
  15. jmlease1
    I'm ready to start agitating for Rortvedt to move up to AA. He's hitting well in a tough environment (hes one of the top hitters for us in Ft. Myers). I want him and Jeffers to catch every day and splitting them up seems like the right move and Rortvedt has earned the nod. let's not wait. Really happy to see Kirilloff back. Looking forward to seeing how he punished AA pitching and handles guys who likely have a better feel for their breaking pitches. I think it's a smart move to have him get some exposure at 1B: positional flexibility is always good and the way things are going at the big club, there might not be a lot of ABs in the OF. While I'm not unhappy with Cron, Kirilloff feels like a special hitter.
  16. jmlease1
    Odorizzi getting through 6 more this year is a really wonderful result. Takes a lot of pressure off the bullpen, takes some of the pressure off the starters going before or after him in the rotation and just improves the team. He's landed 3 starts with a Game Score over 70 already this year; last year he only hit that mark 4 times for the entire season. Would like him to bring the BBs down a little, but I'm very happy with how he's missing bats. Great start again, he's pitching with confidence. Marwin looks like he's starting to come around at the plate; combined with his wonderful defense I think he's going to be a terrific asset this season even with the ice-cold start. I'd say Schoop was smart to bet on himself, eh? If he hits like this the rest of the year, 2017 doesn't look like a fluke year any longer, but more like a pattern and he'll get paid at 28 with a very nice deal. Cant say enough good things about Garver. He's seizing the opportunity with both hands.
  17. jmlease1
    I think we knew that offense was going to have to carry us this season, and it mostly has. But middle of the pack is better than bottom third and is certainly sustainable as a winning formula with a top 5 offense. And in the playoffs, anything can happen in a short series. Runs/game: 7th SLG%: 1st OPS+: 3rd HRs: 3rd OB%: 17th (but still above lg avg) Kinda feels like a top 5 offense, right? We're getting enough out of the starters to be competitive. berrios is legit good by any team's standard, gibson is rounding into shape now that he's had time to build back stamina, Perez & odorizzi have been more than solid enough for the middle of the rotation. (Perez has been good to great in 3 out of his 4 starts, and ok in the other one. His bad stats piled up when he was in the bullpen.) Pineda has been the bad spot. I'd agree, a bit better than expected.
  18. jmlease1
    Sutcliffe was very complimentary about Garver and the way he was receiving the ball last night. It was kinda fun to hear what the ESPN guys were saying about the Twins and who they were focusing on. (Joe Mauer's visit was, dare I say it...charming? He was amusing and generally interesting) Really nice performance by Perez last night against a really good lineup. (Anyone else hear Gabriel Iglesias yelling "Martiiiiiiiine!!!!" when Perez pitches? Just me? ok.) He really looks like he's found a mix that's working for him right now, so it will be interesting to see if he can continue with it now that the league has tape on him for this season, or if he'll have to adjust it significantly. But I agree: having the 95-97 4-seamer to back up the cutter is a nice weapon.
  19. jmlease1
    His command looks rotten too. way too many pitches that really aren't close. Making it way too easy for a hitter to wait for a 3-ball count and a grooved fastball right now. certainly didn't help it was a night where the D was discombobulated and the hitters were flailing at everything. Write it off as a bad night, hope cruz isn't injured, and run it back tonight.
  20. jmlease1
    If Jax turns out to be Scott Baker, that's a pretty good thing! People forget how effective he was before the elbow blew out on him: 15 bWAR in 5 full seasons (20 starts or more) is pretty darn good. I like Jax, hope he continues to do well. I suspect he'll spend the year in AA, but that's fine: he needs innings against solid competition and AA is the right spot for him to develop and refine his pitches and approach.
  21. jmlease1
    Odorizzi was terrific last night, really fun to watch. I'm really happy for him to have gotten through 7, and not having one of his "cruising along, until we hit the 5th, which takes 35 pitches to survive, oh great, now he's at 94 pitches starting the 6th" outings. He really did a nice job finishing off hitters last night. Twins hitters battled against Verlander, and didn't get a lot of great results for it but you have to think that a lot of those balls they were fouling off are the sort of swings resulting in hard-hit balls against other pitchers. No problem with the approach. And Marwin may be still scuffling at the plate, but he sure doesn't take it with him into the field. That play he made hustling into RF for a sliding back-to-the-plate catch was fantastic.
  22. jmlease1
    Smeltzer is interesting. His performance so far is easily his best as a pro but he has shown previously that he can miss bats, keep the ball in the park, and avoid handing out too many free passes. This is the first time he's repeated a level, so I'm guessing that's helping him a little. Twins had him closing games last season, so I'm wondering what drove the decision to move him back into the rotation? Whatever it was, sure seems like a smart one. Seth, where do you think he ranks right now as a prospect? Just outside the top 20?
  23. jmlease1
    I think this is right on Gibson. Most of his pitching woes early on makes sense in the context of his odd off-season; dropping that much weight that fast due to illness does a number on your stamina and it takes some time to bring that back up. He's looking more like the pitcher he was last season again and should be a guy we can count on the rest of the way. Sweeping the O's is great. Yeah, they stink, but even a bad team will steal some games and it's nice that they weren't against us. (remember, they took 2 of 3 from the damn Yankees to open the season and split with the BoSox already, both on the road. Those games count too) Marwin is still scuffling at the plate, but everyone else is doing a really nice job, not a lot of breaks in the lineup. Even Castro is doing well, showing patience paired with pop (he's got the same OPS+ as Astudillo right now) Very happy to see Kepler heating up. Hopefully he can sustain it. he was super unlucky last year (BABIP of .236) and so far this year he's more inline with his (relatively low) career averages. The power potential has always been there, and it'll be interesting to see if he's really unlocked something or not. I do find it interesting that all of his HRs have been in exactly 2 series, and in both of those series he hit one out in every single game. That's a super-weird "that's baseball" stat, yo.
  24. jmlease1
    Very happy with how Rortvedt is hitting so far this year. The patience and power are very good and he''s showing progress from last year. Just wish he was playing more; I don't think sharing time is best for either Rortvedt or Jeffers, personally. Hopefully Rortvedt will be in line for the promotion to AA sooner rather than later?
  25. jmlease1
    Just imagine if we'd had the internet in 1989 to have this argument over Tim Laudner vs Brian Harper. Fortunately, Astudillo has plenty of positional flexibility and even Garver can slot in to other spots on the field (he's ok at 1B and can survive in RF if needed) so its not like we're wasting a roster spot by holding three catchers and not being able to get them all time. Castro doesn't hit well, but he does a lot for the staff and the team. I have no problems with playing out his contract, especially because we have some hitters on the team. But moreover, I don't believe in overreacting to 20 games. There's a reason you rarely see deals in April.
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