jmlease1

I think it's fair to want Berrios to take another step forward; he's been good, but had a rough August and while he was better in Sept it wasn't like he was April - July Berrios. He had the same August swoon in 2018; a little more consistency and he really is an ace. (I also prefer bWAR for pitchers over fWAR; bWAR more accurately describes what a pitcher DID in that year; fWAR more accurately describes what we should have expected. fWAR for pitchers is useful in trying to predict the future, but in describing what actually occurred on the field I think bWAR is better. JMO) I think Sano is a guy we need the step forward from. If he can stay on the field and play 140 games that's a lot of extra impact. Every hitter is going to have a slump or three (excepting maybe Ichiro or Carew in their primes), but can Sano shorten his up an not go into an extended malaise where any pitcher with a decent slider turns him into an auto-K? Can he find a way to keep drawing walks during those periods where his swing is just a bit off? June last year Sano drew barely more walks than he did in May in more than twice the games. Those stretches where he's putting up huge K numbers and not also grabbing the free passes are where his approach gets a little painful. A little more consistency plus a full season (with plenty of rest still available) and he's a 5 bWAR guy, not a 3. He's coming into his prime and I think he can absolutely do it. My #3 would be Lewis Thorpe. It's probably too much to ask that he make the same leap that Berrios did from year 1 to year 2; Berrios got more time in MLB to take his knocks and figure it out than Thorpe did in that first taste and Thorpe's got a pretty small sample size so far...but there's a lot to like there. Thorpe never dominated AAA like Berrios did, but he's always done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, getting Ks, not walking too many guys...the Twins need a young pitcher to step up and I think Thorpe is best equipped to do it.

I pretty much agree with this article, except for one small caveat: there is additional value to someone like Astudillo in a close & late situation where you really do just need someone to get the ball in play. Is it the best use of a roster spot? Probably not, but with Astudillo's positional flexibility it wouldn't take a massive adjustment in his hitting approach for him to be a useful pinch hitting utility guy. I think that's where the expectation should be.

Honestly, I'm less concerned by the money, for it is money we have and pitching we lack. Thw twins have marked the time... (tm Terence Mann)

good news! I really thought someone was going to claim Griffin Jax, and I'm glad we get to hold him for another year. I think he's in AAA early this year and will be nice development depth if we get hit hard by injuries in the starting pitching dept.

Well, I think the twins might be ok with giving Bumgarner $20M per year, but it might not matter if he doesn't want to play here, wants to stay in the National League, and wants to stay on the west coast (with possibly both the Dodgers and Giants bidding to keep him). Maybe the Red Sox are willing to eat $10M per year of Price's salary. Price being washed up is pretty debatable, though: he was effective until injury last year, excellent in 2018, and putting up a fine season before injury in 2017. His peripherals still look good: BB/9 is pretty stable over the last 3 years, HR/9 has been up a bit in the last few years...coinciding with the HR rate in baseball going way up. K/9 was a career high in 2019. H/9 was a career worst, but the BABIP on him was the worst of his career by 25 pts. Is it not possible that he was just a little unlucky last year?

FYI, Price's Hits/9 went up to 9.1 from 7.7, not his BB. I'm interested in price and frankly I'm not worried about taking on the salary. I'd rather take the whole salary right now and give up a lesser prospect and plug him in to the top of the rotation. The only issue with Price is health. The bWAR for Price in the Boston years is 3.0, 1.6, 4.4, 1.8. FIP suggests he was a little unlucky last year so I'm not panicking over the increase in WHIP. If you feel confident in his overall health and your team's ability to manage and coach him, I'd be happy to grab him in a salary dump. Generally this board has been in favor of signing Madison Bumgarner this offseason; it's important to realize that Price has been almost exactly as valuable over the last three years, and while Price is older he only has 150 more innings on his arm. If the Twins can't make it happen with a guy like Bumgarner, Price would be a fine alternative and the money really shouldn't be an issue. There's an assumption of risk, but it's also only 3 years remaining on the deal, making it a palatable one IMHO. Price, Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineda and one of Thorpe/Dobnak/Graterol/Smeltzer is undoubtedly an improved rotation from last year, and if Graterol or Thorpe breaks out? You're off to the races. I'd definitely take Bumgarner or Ryu over trading for Price; both will cost less, both are at least slightly more likely to have a really strong season next year, and there's no other trade cost with them. But as an alternative Price works just fine. (so does Darvish)

Part of the benefit of the Marlins being interested in Rosario is it opens up opportunities with other teams in 3 team deals. Maybe the right pitcher comes from the Marlins, but maybe they come from somewhere else.

It's going to be interesting to see how a sinker-slider pitcher like Dobnak does in MLB going forward. It is true that sinkerball pitchers are going out of vogue right now, and part of the reason is they don't tend to generate a lot of Ks, and guys with a high K-rate are lower risk because of the lower numbers of baserunners they're generating. The question is, with fewer of those types of pitcher in MLB, will the remaining ones be more effective as they run out a pitch mix and style they isn't seen as often? Or will it not matter and maybe the best hitters just have an approach at the plate that can handle that arsenal too well? It's interesting, but Kyle Gibson was one of those guys who threw a heavy sinker and generated groundballs in 2014 & 2015 and was fairly effective overall on the season...but was horribly inconsistent from start to start. Look at this run of Game , Scores in 2014 from June 18 - July 29: 81, 19, 61, 21, 60, 31, 78. Results like that are why Gibson changed his pitch mix and approach (and had his best year as a pro in 2018). Now, if Dobnak becomes 2014-2015 Kyle Gibson that's still a huge win for a 5th starter, but if he's 2016-2017 Gibson then he's just another guy out there. Dobnak has talent, but I have concerns about his ability to become a consistent guy.

You need to put some of this in context: we're talking about backup catchers here, and finding one with positive offensive contributions is a little harder there. Don't compare them with a left fielder; compare them to catchers. If you think Avila's 2017 season was only sorta good, I really don't know what to tell you: he had an OPS+ of 120, so he was 20% better than league average as a hitter. Last year he had an OPS+ of 100, so right at league average...which is pretty darn good for a backup catcher. Look at the Yankees: Romine had an OPS+ of 97. Houston split their backup catching duties between Maldonado & Stassi; the first was basically Avila in less time (OPS+ of 101 with an equally low BA) and Stassi was an offensive black hole (OPS+ of 19). TB gave 289 PAs to Zunino, who had an OPS+ of 44! Washington got Avila-like production out of old friend Kurt Suzuki (OPS+ of 102), but did a job split with Yan Gomes, who clocked in at 78. Dodgers gave 249 PAs to Russell Martin and his OPS+ of 79. If you get league average hitting with good defense out of your backup catcher, you're doing very well. The platoon splits are very good for Avila in this situation: he should basically never play against a LHP starter absent an injury. It's a nice fit

Plan 1 is overall my preference, but I too would muck around at the edges. I don't want Bailey as the second SP in the mix and would prefer Gausman who wouldn't cost much more and could transition to the bullpen effectively if starting isn't gonna work for him or someone in the system passes him by the time Pineda comes back. If not Gausman, then I'm more interested in Rich Hill. But I really dunno about Bailey. I'm willing to agree to whatever the FO thinks is best in terms of signing one of Travis Shaw/Eric Thames/CJ Cron to fill in at one of the corner spots for a salary of somewhere between $5-7M. If Plan 1 is a no, than I'd go with trying to sign Donaldson, Rich Hill and then making a deal for Price/Sale/Darvish with the hope that Bos/Chi would eat at least a little of the salary.

I think in terms of production it's probably a push, but there's a little more risk/reward in Avila over Castro. He's had higher highs and lower lows, and there's more miles on his tires, though Castro has the more recent significant injury. Financially, it's a lower risk move because it's nearly half the salary. It's a good move, he should be a good fit as a platoon partner for Garver, and an excellent bridge to one of the guys coming up, whether it's Rortvedt or Jeffers. It's not splashy or sexy, but I'll keep harping on it: one of the best ways to stay competitive is giving as few plate appearances and innings as possible to bad players. These are the moves that keep the floor up, that keep a player from getting exposed before their ready, etc. I liked Castro, and he was terrific in year 1, injured in year 2, and a respectable backup in year 3. It's fine to move on and Avila is a quality replacement.

I'm fine with this move as well, especially because they got the 2nd year; I didn't want Pineda back on a 1-year make-good when he was going to miss the first quarter. The other good thing is the early months usually don't require a 5th starter as often so it should be easier to endure the suspension than it was last fall. but I still want Bumgarner or Ryu (or Cole or Strasburg, of course) to slot in around the top. And I wouldn't mind making a run at someone like Gausman as a) insurance against Thorpe/Graterol/Littell/whomever not being ready to lock down a rotation spot, because he's also a guy who could shift to the bullpen and be an asset. Again: so far we're keeping the floor from sinking. That's a really good thing. Pineda's a talented pitcher and this is a good 2-year price. It's fair to be concerned about not getting a more impactful pitcher, but 4 of the top 5 are still on the market and the Twins already brought back arguably #6. If the Twins can land Bumgarner, I'm feeling pretty good about how the rotation is lining up, and definitely better than a year ago at this time. I'm also baffled by people in this thread being down on Berrios. He may not be contending for a Cy, but he's a damn good pitcher.

Solid signing. Avila should be a respectable backup catcher where you don't have to worry about falling off the cliff when Garver gets a day off. I'd expect his bWAR to fall somewhere around 1-1.5 He's an interesting comp to Castro; both of them have made exactly 1 all-star game and that's really their only great season. Avila has had some better seasons and some worse; it's like he's more prone to higher highs and lower lows than Castro, but they're not that far off. Avila has some more miles on his tires, but as a backup should be good. I like this signing because it keeps the floor high. Good bridge to Rortvedt or Jeffers, and with Avila on board the Twins should be able to handle the usually dings and dents on a catcher during the season with Garver, Avila, and Astudillo getting the time, with Rortvedt & Jeffers in the wings (either might be ready for a fill-in by midseason if needed).

I'm fine with Bumgarner: he's in the same tier as Wheeler and could do very well (and certainly has a lot of success on the big stages, which can't hurt). And having a LHP in the rotation wouldn't make me sad at all. I like him as a pitcher, and while the miles on the tires raises the risk some, it should also lower the price a bit. Prefer a 4 year deal on him but if it's the difference between signing him and not signing him, I would be willing to go the 5th year.

I would hope Pineda would cost less than that, frankly. He's going to miss another chunk of time next season with the suspension and has never thrown 180 innings in his career. In 9 years he's missed 3 entire seasons and significant time in 2 more because of injury. I'm not opposed to bringing him back, but he's also a case of 1 year with a team option making the most sense ($8M pro-rated for the suspension in year 1 with a team option for $10M in year 2). But all of this is predicated on the Twins landing a serious top-end starter whether it's Wheeler, Ryu, Bumgarner, Strasburg, or Cole in FA or arranging a trade. Running back the ype of rotation we had last season lifts the floor and helps you compete in the regular season, but top-end talent is needed for the post.

I think these are the 2 most salient points regarding 3B. If you want Sano to improve, he needs to be healthy in spring training so he can actually work on it. And there's no question that there's plenty of history of the twins having guys start out as the Butcher of Cairo over there and turning into adequate if not plus defenders. (Trevor Plouffe who looked like he was playing with a frying pan instead of a glove at times improved rather drastically as I recall and the stats back it up)

because they didn't think he was worth spending $10-12M on? Baseball arbitration is an odd duck where no one who is eligible for it ever gets less money than the previous year, only increases. So even if you had a bad year, you get more money in arbitration. It's one of the better things the players have in the CBA. I think he's a very interesting choice to grab up as a 5th starter. The ceiling is someone who is a good #3 on a contending team, the floor is a replaceable 5th starter. I think Seth's contract proposal makes sense for the Twins, but not sure Gausman will go for the team option (definitely won't do a 2nd team option, IMHO). He's made about $20M in MLB already so unless he's been foolish with his money he doesn't need to worry about a 2nd year as much. But I'd be willing to take a run at him even without the option. Gausman could be a nifty replacement for Perez/Gibson's production at a smart price and if he flunks out as a starter would still have value as a relief option. Again, i think one of the keys to regular season success is putting as few innings and ABs in the hands of bad players as you can. Raising the floor has real value, and even in his down years, Gausman was a better pitcher than Martin Perez (whom we gave 29 starts to last season). Working with a good pitching coach in a stable environment as a 4th or 5th starter, I think he could chew up 180 productive innings with an ERA floating around 4.10-4.25. I like that a lot at $6M.

I think there are a bunch of reasonable internal options to fall back on, but i think they are exactly that: fall back plans. I think they try to sign someone in FA, either to fill 1B or 3B and adjust from there, and if they can't get the guy they want that way, they're re-looking at Cron, and then option 3 is to see if Rooker or Raley or Weil can handle it out of spring training and if not, plant Marwin there as the primary with Garver, Adrianza and Sano all seeing time there. I'm interested in Rooker, but I'd be a lot happier if he wasn't prolifing a little like a poor man's Adam Dunn. (If he's actually an Adam Dunn who is ok on D at 1B...then that'll be fine)

I like Cron, but this is a perfectly reasonable move. His production is fairly easy to replace, it's one of the easiest positions to fill in MLB, and the Twins have a variety of internal options, plus there's a reasonable question about what his health looks like (you can be ready for spring training without actually being "ready"). I don't think there's going to be a big market for him, so even if the Twins want him back they should be able to do it at a lower number. Hildenberger sucked this year. And sucked the second half of 2018. He's a marginal player; even fWAR has him as a replacement level guy. I don't think he was cut for $, I think he was dropped for the 40-man spot and that spot is unfortunately more useful than Trevor Hildenberger. It's easy to suggest that he was overworked and that's why he fell off in 2018...but was he, really? 73 appearances and 73 innings isn't some absurd number. (for example, the hated Yankees had 2 relievers make 72 & 73 appearances last year) Maybe the real answer is, he got figured out. That he's just another guy in the 'pen. Hate to say it, but that's probably the reality on Trevor Hildenberger. I like Adrianza at $1.6M, especially if last year's performance at the plate wasn't a fluke. Positional flexibility, switch-hitter...he's a nice asset as a utility guy.

Regression to the mean is always a big thing in these projections, which is probably why Kepler is only projected to rack up 3.5 fWAR; considering Kepler took a big leap forward last season, but had improved his fWAR every year for the past 4, the regression is probably overstated assuming good health. I'm not always the biggest fan of Fangraphs defensive ratings, which seems to be hurting Kepler as well. #2 & #3 are reasonable, but I suspect Buxton clears if he plays 140 games. Man, I hope he plays 140 games. #4 seems reasonable. If Arraez can get within shouting distance of an .800 OPS, I think everyone will smile and call it a solid sophomore season. #5: I think we all want more out of Garver if he keeps hitting like this. Rest is good, but we can find another 15-20 games for him to play, even if it's not catching. Cruz is probably going to need more days off this year with the wrist, so throw him some DH and 1B time to keep his bat in the lineup. #6: all seem reasonable; some of them may not get that AB with the Twins. I think Lewis is the least likely because he needs a good, healthy year in the minors and there's no need to rush him. Larnach is the next least likely just because there are quite a few OFs ahead of him, so unless he really crushes it, he'll probably have to get in line.

I think someone takes a flyer on Jax, maybe on Reed as well. So it goes. I could see a team wanting to grab Wander Javier, but I can't see him sticking on a 26-man all year, especially after really struggling at the plate last year. Yes, the tools are all there. Yes, he was a highly rated prospect. Yes, we spent $4M on him. No, he's not capable of being on an MLB team this year. The basic problem is a) you give up a 26-man spot for a player that can't really help you, you screw up the kid's development by him not getting the game time he needs. If a team does select him and hold him all year, the next year he has to stay on the 40-man...and go back to A-ball, after having what was probably an completely unproductive time in MLB. Now he's 22 in low-A, behind the development curve and still occupying a 40-man spot with a real challenge to get to the pros. I think Javier stays where he is.

I think most writers think the Baines induction was a mistake run by a committee of biased insiders supporting one of their guys. I don't think it will lower standards in the mind of most; I truly doubt most voters are looking at Harold Baines and going, "welp, if Baines is in, we have to vote in anyone better than him". Because dang, then a LOT of guys are getting in...

Jeter's case is undeniable. he's a no-doubter, even if his defense was overrated for most of his career, he was still a fantastic player and offensive force especially when SS was still a position that teams were willing to ignore offense on. easy pick. Larry Walker is also an easy one for me, although I recognize it's harder for others. walker was a true 5-tool player who was also able to turn it into results. He was a great hitter (and not just at Coors, where he put up video game numbers), an excellent defensive player, a terrific baserunner and the only reason he wasn't in almost immediately was a) he played in Colorado in his prime, and he struggled to stay healthy. walker only played 150+ games once. Only made it in 140+ 4 times in 16 "full" seasons. but when he played...man, was he good. Power, patience, and contact as a hitter. It wasn't just Coors; Larry Walker hit .322 playing his last year in Montreal. he could hit lefties, rightes...he could hit on Mars if you asked him to. Vlad Guerrero glided in to the HoF and the only thing Vlad truly did better than Larry Walker was stay on the field. If Vlad is worthy (and I'm fine with it), how is Walker not? Even with the injuries, I'd take Walker in a choose-up game every time. Equal as hitter, Walker was a significantly better baserunner and defender. Vlad had an amazing arm; Walker's was as good and Walker had a ton of range to go with it. I hope Walker gets in. Scott Rolen is another easy pick for me. 3B are underrepresented in the HoF and there are stars that deserve the nod. Rolen is one of them. A sterling defensive player, he also brought a sturdy bat to the yard. His 2004 season wins the MVP race easily if he's in the AL that year, but 3 St.L players (Rolen, Pujols, and Edmonds) all having elite years probably didn't help (Bonds was a deserving winner, Beltre could have taken it too). but it remains an amazing year. health is the only strike against Rolen; if he had been able to stay on the field more we might be talking about him as the best 3B of his generation instead of Beltre, but again: longevity and health are Beltre's advantages. Lop of the first season for both men (where neither came close ot a full season) and compare the first 16 years of their careers: Beltre comes out ahead on bWAR, Rolen takes it on rate stats. In terms of total value, Rolen and Ron Santo are almost identical, and there's no doubt in my mind Santo's a worthy HoFer. reluctantly, I would probably vote for Schilling for on field performance. but I'm not going to lose any sleep over people leaving him off the ballot and invoking the character clause on him for everything he's shown post-baseball. Great pitcher. Big game performer. Rotten human (JMO). A tough call for me. Very hard to separate the things he's said (and many of the things he's done) off the field. I'm on the record as being no on Clemens & Bonds. Age them off the ballot and let some future committee decide. I think they were probably worthy pre-steroids, but I also think they're both a disgrace. Let this be their pennance: they don't get in on the writer's ballot and have to play to a committee down the road. I struggle on Andruw Jones: the last 5 years of his career don't do anything for his case, it's a relatively short peak...but so was Joe Mauer's. CF is a pretty demanding position, as seen by Buxton's inability to stay on the field. Transcendent defensive player. Great 10 year run. Game changer in his 20's. I'm leaning yes on him, but i understand the no's. Omar Vizquel is a no for me. Loved watching him play; he was probably the most fun shortstop to watch since Ozzie Smith...but he wasn't anywhere near the player Ozzier was. Omar has a lot of highlights, but is a bit overrated defensively, IMHO. Almost certainly won more Gold Gloves than he deserved. Pretty bad offensive player. No power. Played forever, but is that HoF? He was literally never the best SS in the AL; even in his best season he was never higher than 3rd. He was never an MVP and never deserved one. 3-time all-star, who really only earned it once even with extra credit for defense thrown in. he was very good, he was fun to watch, and he was skilled enough to keep playing long after most of his peers had move on...but I vote no on Omar. Helton is another one I'm leaning yes on. I know he's another Coors kid, but OPS+ adjusts for park factors and he was still insane. That 5 year run from '00-'04 is ludicrous: 163,160,148,165,165 for his OPS+! (Joe Mauer's MVP year was 171) He wasn't quite Frank Thomas or Jeff Bagwell but it's not that far off. I hope his candidacy gets a looooong look. I lean no on Pettite: lot of good years, only a couple of great ones, plus the 'roids. manny is another no: might have been the best pure hitter in the game at his peak, but was an awful OF, hurt his team with the antics, and is an unquestioned cheater. billy wagner is the one other guy I look at: more dominant than hoffman and if "closer" still matters...he's worth a good argument.

Avila would be nice if Castro isn't returning. Rich Hill is fine as a 5th starter on the cheap if you've already signed a Wheeler or Ryu and added someone else via trade or signing for the 4th spot, but that's where the expectation and contract scope should be on him. pencil him for #5 at a contract where you can cut him if he's injured/cooked, but if he's still got the stuff to get people out you can space him out and keep him fresh. Kendrick...might be interesting if Cron goes, but he's probably going to want more than 1 year and had a big enough season last year that he could get it. Not sure he's worth a multi-year, would probably prefer to ride Cron for a bounceback year.

I think they may let him go on arbitration, but I think he'll still be in the mix to come back at a lower number. I'm not opposed to that; I do like Cron and would like to see him back. I think his D was better than advertised, especially before the injury, and I think he's a credible hitter (interesting and different approach than a lot of guys too; he hits line drives rather than fully embracing the "launch angle" revolution so he might be someone who isn't impacted significantly if there's a ball reversion). That said, it's not like there aren't guys who can fill the role. I'm not so enthusiastic about the idea of "meh, just platoon it with Marwin, La Tortuga, Adrianza, and whomever else is on the roster today", though. None of the guys named there really hits well enough to be a true asset at 1B, Marwin is the only one who might be a plus defender (not sure if either of the other two is even average, though 1B D isn't usually a big difference maker). there seems to be a level of "who cares, it's only CJ Cron" to this exercise, and that could be a mistake. making yourself a contender is often about players turning in star performances, but it's also about raising your floor and not having terrible performers suck up a ton of time. Even with the injuries, Cron wasn't bad (1.4 bWAR); Astudillo for all that he's stupendously fun was much less valuable ( -0.2 bWAR). the Twins did a great job last year in "raising the floor" on their team and not giving ABs to bad players. Cron's ceiling might not be super high, but his floor is pretty solid, i think.