jmlease1

you're missing my point, though, which has been that right now and likely for this season Gary Sanchez is the better player. Rortvedt could end up being better, and might be a better fit (the fact that he hits lefty helps as a platoon partner) for a team, but people are acting like Ben Rortvedt is a better player than Gary Sanchez, only looking at Sanchez's flaws and ignoring the rather sizable one that Rortvedt may have at the plate. We've had people ripping this deal claiming that all three of the players the Yankees got were better than anything the twins got and getting way out on their skis about ben rortvedt.

Pitchers will take the no-hit defensive catcher because the better receiver impacts them directly, whereas their lack of offense doesn't. but when a guy is a 41 OPS+, maybe you shouldn't let the pitcher decide who their personal caddy is. Gerrit Cole gets paid a ridiculous amount of money maybe he can sack up and pitch to whomever the team decides.

I'd put Kirilloff in LF. We won't be great defensively, but he'll be ok. Although I might consider shifting kepler over and having Kirilloff in RF, but they seem adverse to moving Kepler?

You're basically saying that it doesn't matter what the player's offense is, the only metric that matters for assessing how good a catcher is, is how good they are on defense. And I'm sorry, if that kind of assessment was ok Andrelton Simmons might still be our SS. You're also saying the Yankees completely changed their thinking on catching last season...but did they? Sanchez played 117 games last season; he appears as a catcher in 110 of them. He only DH'd 5 times. he started 100 games at catcher and had 92 complete games at the position. Look at his starts by month: March/April: 18 May: 18 June: 20 July: 18 Aug: 13 Sept: 18 Doesn't really look like they changed all that much, does it? And the Yankees care about money too; if they didn't they would have signed Correa or Story to play SS for them rather than trade for IK-F. They just operate on a little different scale than we do. Bottom line: if Rortvedt doesn't substantially improve his hitting, he will not be a better player than Sanchez next season, at catcher or any other position on the field. the Yankees may be willing to sacrifice offense at catcher and feel like they have enough elsewhere to navigate it, and that it's more important to their formula to have better defense consistently at catcher, and that's all fine. Rortvedt might be a better FIT for them next season and going forward...but right now I'd bet the under on him being a better overall player than Sanchez for next season. And I say this as someone who has been a big Rortvedt supporter. But he was horrendously bad at the plate last season and there's evidence in his minor league history to suggest he's never going to be a good hitter in MLB.

Look, I've been as big a Ben Rortvedt supporter as anyone on this site, but unless he developed his hitting a lot in the offseason...Ben Rortvedt is not actually a better catcher than Gary Sanchez right now. Rortvedt was so horrible on offense that it wiped out all of his value on defense. Sanchez was roughly league average as a hitter and didn't have a good year. Defensively, he's below average, but he's not actually the complete horror show that he's being portrayed as. But his biggest weaknesses is in blocking the plate which shows out more obviously than anything. Historically, he's given up too many passed balls and doesn't protect his pitchers well against wild pitches. And when he's not hitting well, those are magnified even more. Sanchez was worth 1.5 fWAR and 0.7 bWAR last year. YMMV on which measure you trust more. Rortvedt was worth 0.2 fWAR and -0.1 bWAR. There's a real possibility that Rortvedt is simply not going to hit in MLB; it was always the fear with him. I'm not expecting sanchez to suddenly have a renaissance now that he's out of NYC, but deciding that Ben Rortvedt will now develop into a quality starting catcher in NYC is assuming a lot. His defense is good enough for him to be a backup (and Sanchez's offense is good enough for him to do the same, frankly), but let's not put on the rose-colored glasses about Ben Rortvedt just because we're mad at the front office. The average of 7 projection systems used by Fangraphs have Sanchez being with 1.6 fWAR for 2022. For Rortvedt, it's 0.9 fWAR. (admittedly, a couple of these have Rortvedt playing very little time, but even if you quadrupled his time...Rortvedt's average comes in at 1.3 fWAR, and all of these projections have Rortvedt being a significantly better hitter in 2022)

Kinda feels like Nick left off SS as something to watch because there's still so much uncertainty left. I mean, if they sign Trevor Story...there's not much to watch. Kirilloff's health is something to watch for me: if he's healthy, I think his bat is a huge asset (I would strongly consider batting him cleanup behind Buxton) and I think he's good enough in LF to hold it down as long as Sano is still here at 1B. My preference is to have DH be more of an open spot this year, with Arraez getting a solid chunk of time there to keep his bat in the lineup but otherwise rotating Sano, Sanchez, Kirilloff, Miranda and whomever else needs ABs while getting a day off in the field. I'm a big fan of Kirilloff and I think if he's healthy he's going to have a pretty big year at the plate. The projection systems have a reasonable read on him, but he's someone I would bet the over on. I really believe in his talent.

The love affair with Story is he's a fine combination of offense and defense. Even in a bit of a down year, he's an excellent defender at SS and has been his whole career. Offensively he had a dip, but finished the second half of the season strong and we're not panicking about his away splits, because the data increasingly suggests that those kind of splits will normalize when he gets away from Coors. Even in a rough offensive season, Story was worth 4.2 bWAR, and there's little reason to suspect that he can't be a 3-5 bWAR player for the next 3-5 years. He's in the prime of his career and would be a terrific fit in the Twins lineup. We wouldn't need to worry about whether Martin or Lewis can handle SS (if they can, great, but we won't NEED them to) and we'd be looking at very strong defense up the middle with Jeffers behind the plate (quality defensive catcher), Polanco & Story at 2B & SS, and Buxton in CF. The love affair from me is on with him because I think he's a star player who we might be able to land without committing 10 years and $350M. I wanted us to sign Story from the start of free agency, and he's an even better fit now. The problem with Donaldson and his contract is a) he's aging, b) he's always been injury prone, and c) the $8M kicker at the end. We were willing to eat a potential problem at the end of the contract because the team was already contending and there was no reason to think it wouldn't for at least half the contract. And they were right about year 1: we made the playoffs. Year 2, literally everything went to crap and no one really saw it coming. Even pessimistic projections had us in the mix. We were taking a risk that Donaldson might still be a significant contributor in year 3 and we'd eat what we had to in year 4 (and maybe get lucky). A deal with Story has better odds of success, frankly: he's younger, he's healthier, and he's better. He plays a position of serious need. If he starts slipping there's other positions he could slide down to while still providing value (Donaldson either played 3B or DH and loses a lot of value if he no longer plays 3B). Story is a great fit right now. I'd take the risk on him.

It kinda is? The cost savings is not what drove those deals. (to some extent the future cost on Berrios motivated the team to move him, but it was more about maximizing return) And you're simply wrong on the money, because the Twins had already paid half the contracts on both players, so it "freed up" closer to $10M, not $20M. A salary dump is what Cincinnati is doing, letting Miley go for nothing. We got back real players/prospects. You might be able to categorize the deal with the Yankees as a salary dump (they got the best player) but not Cruz/Berrios. You can rip the trade of both players if you want (I think you're on poor ground to do so with Cruz, because literally the only reason to oppose that trade was "I love Nelson Cruz", but there's much more room for disagreement on Berrios, especially considering he signed with Toronto without testing the FA market) but calling it a salary dump simply because Twins saved some money on the deal is silly.

They signed Donaldson expecting to contend in the first two years of that deal and if they had an overpay in the last two years they were willing to accept that risk in favor of making a bigger push for those first two years. The first year, the Twins did contend, but Donaldson wasn't available in the playoffs, which was a big reason they signed him. Last year was a wreck for a variety of reasons, so they missed the window they expected to contend with Donaldson's expected peak value with the team. There's a difference between a bad call and things just not quite working out. Donaldson didn't quite work out, partly because of a weird pandemic season (in a normal year they probably could have made sure he was healthy going into the playoffs, instead of the weird sprint all teams were in) and partly because literally everything went wrong at the same time last season (which literally no one saw coming: all the projection systems had the Twins competing last year, and so did our fan base, which is also why so many people are so freakin' angry at the FO today; the disappointment seems to hit even harder than the performance). The thinking behind the move was sound...it just didn't work out the way they hoped. Donaldson actually provided fair value in those first two years, but injury timing was bad. I think they saw this as an opportunity to get out from under the 4th year, and they took it. It's less about whether he's deteriorating rapidly vs just declining overall and where their window is shifting. Donaldson and his salary and his decline are greater risk to the team's prospects for 2023. And if moving the salary now positions themselves for someone like Story, then that's another risk they'll assume because that move sets themselves up to compete in 2022 while being in a very strong position for 2023 and forward, as opposed to having things be out of alignment in 2023. Garver was probably not going to be a factor in 2023 either; he was going to be 32 at that point and if he's a guy who struggles to reach 100 games, you're not going to give him a significant extension. (remember, Garver has actually player fewer games over the past 3 seasons than the oft-injured Byron Buxton, is older, and plays the most strenuous position in the game) So this feels like a move made to try and get good value now for a player that was falling out of future plans. But at the end of the day it comes down to what the next move is. If they land Story and Pineda, I look at this team and think they should be good enough to contend in the AL Central. If they don't, then the FO will have really made a mistake that can get trashed for, because they will have waited to deploy their budget until it was too late to give them any options if they missed on a critical signing.

Yeah, it's really hard to put Cavaco on any list right now when he's closer to busting out of the system entirely than anything else. He's still young, so there's time, but I'd rank Kala'i Rosario or Rodriguez ahead of Cavaco for power projection right now. It's a bit of a coin flip on who actually has the bigger power projection between Wallner & Sabato: they both have huge power. Both have significant issues with contact. But when they do get the bat on the ball it flies a long damn way, as far as anyone. For all that the Twins are accused of going to big swinging sluggers...there's actually not a ton of them progressing through the system right now? Some of that is guys like Rooker, Kirilloff, & Larnach graduating, and some of it has been a focus on pitching, but right now there aren't a ton of sluggers really rising in the system right now.

The more I think about it, how I feel about this trade will entirely depend on what we do with the next couple of moves. If this deal unlocks things to the point where we land Trevor Story (I'm not even going to pretend we're in on Correa)...then it's probably all worth it. Straight up, I'm not a fan, really: Sanchez is a mess. He's a bad catcher who has become a poor man's Sano at the plate. We're not getting 2019 Sanchez (who was Mitch Garver-ish). Could he rebound now that he's out of NY, away from the spotlight, maybe gets his confidence back, works with some new coaches...maybe? And it wouldn't take much improvement for him to be a quality (if frustrating) option. But he could easily go the other way and keep spiraling and be unplayable at catcher. Urshela is more of a utility player to my mind: not sure how well he'll hold up at SS (which seems to be the reason the Yankees moved on from him) and not sure he'll hit well enough to be a regular at 3B. Donaldson is still a really good player, an excellent hitter who still plays good defense at 3B (even if you have to watch his time in the field carefully). If he can stay on the field for 130-140 games, he's worth the money. He was one of the Twins best offensive players last year (Behind Buxton & Garver when they were healthy, and Cruz while he was here) and likely would have been again. Rortvedt is a player I was high on; his defense is quality (and after years of the Gary Sanchez Experience, he's going to look amazing to Yankees fans), but he wasn't a strong offensive player in the minors and every criticism people had of his offense has so far proven true in the MLB. It's a small sample, but right now he's little more than a defensive replacement and a backup you don't want playing much because the offense is horrific. So losing him doesn't hurt that much, but Donaldson will be missed. Yankees got the best player in this deal, which always says some things. But if shedding Donaldson's salary while still getting back useful MLB players also positions us to sign Trevor Story and Michael Pineda to finish the bulk of the off-season (I expect we'll add 1 more RHP for the bullpen too)...then in context this deal works. In a vacuum, it feels like the Yankees got the better end of it. If at the start of the off-season you said me: "Twins are going to trade Garver, Donaldson, Rortvedt, and Petty and get back Gray, Sanchez, Urshela, and a prospect and also sign Story, Pineda, Bundy, and a RH reliever" I probably would have thought, "That's not bad? I think I like this team, if the young guys contribute!" So this deal is all about the context. If we don't end up spending the money...then Falvey and Levine are going to get bashed a lot and they'll deserve it. (and if they do, then some people will need to make some apologies)

Rortvedt probably doesn't move the needle much. He's a solid defensive catcher, MLB-quality. His first turn as a hitter in MLB was epically bad. It's only 100 PAs, so it's a small sample, but...he wasn't a very good hitter in the minors and he's not an elite defender, just a good one, so if he's a total zero on offense, then he's a replacement level player. And I say this as someone who likes Rortvedt and was high on him as a prospect. The best part about Rortvedt for us as things stands was he was a lefty who you might hope could protect Jeffers against the best righty pitchers...but he might not even be able to do that?

Yeah, I don't understand what the plan is here. Urshela might be a bounceback candidate, but he also was never good until 2019, so 1 good season plus the short covid year isn't a lot to base it on. Sanchez was bad last year and worse in the short covid year. (He's also a butcher behind the plate) If they're clearing salary to get a better SS (Story? I'm not even going to pretend with in on Correa) then I can get this. But right now, it's a mess. Of course, considering how much has changed for this team in like a day, things could change a lot more in a few more days? I liked Rortvedt, but I'm not sure he's going to hit enough to be anything other than a backup intended to only get 20-30 games a season.

I'm ok with Miranda competing with Urshela for the job, but...WTF is going on at SS? (and we still need another starting pitcher)

If it is, then I'm in. Otherwise, I don't know what's going on. If this is all salary savings, then the FO will deserve all the grief it will get. But I'll try to reserve judgment until we're done?

Reds fans aren't happy. They're seeing a decent team get dismantled in the name of payroll and feeling like they're heading into another long rebuild. I had a Reds fan text me this morning begging for good news about Petty and was furious when I told him he wouldn't be in the majors until 2024 at the earliest (and has a high ceiling/high risk profile). So far the collective response to this deal from the Reds fans has been "Sell the team, Bob!"

As things stand, it's more likely to look like: 1B: Sano, 2B: Polanco, 3B: Donaldson, SS: Kiner-Felefa, C : Jeffers, RF: Kepler, CF: Buxton, LF: Kirilloff, DH: Arraez Basically, you've got 1 guy who can't really hit in Kiner-Falefa (But puts the ball in play enough to not be a free out), and 1 guy who the jury is still out on in Jeffers. Kepler is the next worst hitter, and he has 25 HR power. Then it's Arraez, who could contend for a batting title if a) he gets enough ABs and b) if his knees don't ruin him. Kirilloff showed me enough that if he's healthy he's going to be really dangerous. Sano is capable of carrying the team for weeks (and having bad slumps) but even with his messy year, he still had a 112 OPS+. Polanco, Buxton, and Donaldson are terrific. The lineup can contend. It's why a lot of us didn't want them to punt on the season. They still need one more starter...but if we can land Pineda, I feel pretty good about the rotation: Gray, Pineda, Ober, Ryan, Bundy with Dobnak, Duran, and Winder as the next men up and Balazovic, Sands, Canterino, and Woods-Richardson coming in behind them (I'm not a believer in Strotman, but maybe I'll be wrong). Maeda might be back before the end of the season. They'll need to be healthier than last season (although Donaldson did fine once the season got going) and they'll need for every single free agent/trade decision to not crap out this time...but the odds are better.

Assumes facts not in evidence. If this were a true statement, we would not have signed Josh Donaldson (or Nelson Cruz for that matter). Coming off of a 101 win season, the Twins could have easily been seen as a competitive team without spending $22M on Donaldson. The "Pohlads are cheap" arguments are boring. Are we bottom 5 in spending? How has it been since we were? I think this team's business model and market revenue can support a higher payroll than we have, but we're not Pitt, Balt, Miami, or Cle and haven't been for some time.

I agree with this analysis. Petty is a fine prospect with a high ceiling, but has a fair amount of risk, and zero chance of debuting with the team before 2024 and more likely 2025. Gray is a good pitcher on a good contract who can come in immediately and be a strong rotation pitcher and the option for 2023 is a reasonable one for a quality starter. Adding the relief prospect is a nice bonus. I think the Reds might have done better for Gray and are taking a big gamble on Petty. It's easier to make that gamble as a late first round draft pick; in this case they've given up a known quantity with significant value for a really big swing. From the Twins side, I like the fact that we gave up an A-ball pitcher with higher risk for a quality MLB pitcher instead of having to give up 1 (or 2) of our better pitching prospects that are closer to the majors (Winder, Canterino, Sands, Woods-Richardson, Duran, or Balazovic)

They have Gray under contract for 2022 and a team option at $12M for 2023. It's not one year of Gray, It's 1 + 1 if they want to keep him (and at $12M it's hard to see them declining the option unless he totally goes to crap)

Disagree. The lineup is good enough to compete right now, so with a competent pitching staff, they're in the mix, especially with expanded playoffs. This isn't pro basketball where being in the middle class means you're almost never really a competitor for the title; the differences between the teams in the playoffs get a lot smaller (Twins recent record not withstanding) so if you have a chance to compete, I think you should always go for it. tearing it down and hoping for a new wave of prospects is no guarantee of future success. Gray is a big step to putting them team into the mix for the playoffs in 2022 and they only gave up a guy who is several years away with a big risk factor. Plus, Gray has an option for next season too: he doesn't have to be a 1 year rental. The level of overreaction to everything going wrong last season with Twins fans is getting ridiculous. This front office has made the playoffs 3 times in 5 years; why exactly is it that they're totally incompetent/disaster/garbage? Because they didn't come out firing early in free agency? They're still making moves, and if they can get Pineda back, I like this team's odds to compete. This isn't a desperation move at all. A desperation move would have been dropping two of our top pitching prospects for 1 year of Chris Baskitt.

Ober & Ryan aren't quality? Guess we should never bother developing prospects. and the bullpen needs maybe 1-2 guys, not 3-4. Rogers, Alcala, Duffey, and Thielbar are quality by any reasonable standard and Cotton & Garza Jr are decent veteran options to start a season. Add 1 RHP option and let guys compete for the last spot and you're there. But this is about Gray, who is a great fit for the Twins with a very affordable option for next season if he continues to pitch well.

Twins clearly think he's capable/ready to have a bounceback year, and at the very least hold down the fort until some of the younger guys are ready. (Or maybe he's a "get by" kind of guy until Maeda is ready to be back and the option is just hedging their bets in case he really jumps back into form?) Gray is a good fit for this team, though. He's used to pitching at the front of a rotation and you have to like how his K's have sat for the last three years. The only question I have about him is how deep in games he can still get and whether we're at risk of overtaxing our bullpen. But he's certainly a quality pitcher who improves the rotation greatly. Hope we hear about adding back Big Mike next!

Very interesting. While I liked Petty as a prospect, he was 3 years away, minimum...and high school pitchers have a rough track record. Gray should be a big help right now and is under contract for a good option next season as well if he performs. Add Pineda back and I suddenly feel a lot better about our rotation. Gray is a nice pitcher, and I think this move makes a lot of sense for the team. Always a shame to give up a high upside player like Petty, but you have to give to get and I'm much happier dealing away an 18 year-old A-ball prospect than some of the other deals that have been discussed.

Twins staff has some work to do here: he's got to find a secondary pitch that works for him consistently, but there's talent here, so if he can lock in to at least one of them, then he should advance quickly. I wonder if the Twins like his split-change or his slider better at this point? Curious to see if they have him focus on one or the other this season or if they try to get refinement on them both.