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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    Your excellent post here leads me to ask a question I've been chewing on. In a good rebuild, that looks to the future, you invest playing time in the hope of surprises that change your future outlook. Think about how good we felt when Jax became a guy for us in the bullpen awhile back. Anyone from Cole Sands to Johan Satana who you just pause and think "Oooo we got something here. That's a pleasant surprise!" Can we say anything like that for this year? Kody Clemens?
  2. TheLeviathan
    I'm not sure how to feel about this article, in some ways I agree....the offense for a long stretch of this season was being carried by Buxton and likewise with the rotation and Ryan. But all good teams rely on their star players to help carry large parts of the load and injuries happen to everyone. Are these three vets particularly prone to face-planting? Sure, but if they are going to be your largest investments than you are always going to subject yourself to their downsides. Maybe, rather than concentrate on the floor of the 40 man roster, we focus on changing the ceiling? But let's ride with the thesis presented....how do they lift up this floor? Are they signing free agents? Are they trading young assets for veterans? I can't help but feel, after reading this article, that the conclusions drawn at the end aren't all that different than the ones that lead us down this path in the first place: safe, middling, half measured. I'd suggest what got the Twins here again is what has continually got them here: a lack of vision and willingness to swing boldly. I didn't read anything here that sounds any different.
  3. TheLeviathan
    I've seen all the "standing on my back leg, heave it and hope" I want to see from Murray. Hideous. Great D win.
  4. TheLeviathan
    Helluva start.
  5. TheLeviathan
    Week 3 opens to some weirdness: Pitt and Cincy in a shootout despite both looking awful offensively the first two weeks. Drake Maye looks like he's never touched a football before. Detroit fighting for their lives with the Jets Buffalo looking mortal against the Chargers Commanders giving the Seahawks the fight of their life Colts might lose their 10th game in a row since trading two firsts for Sauce.
  6. TheLeviathan
    No, but we may have traded away a playoff spot in 2028, 2029, etc. by choosing to buy this season.
  7. TheLeviathan
    I'm not sure where the math on two is coming from. Since the start of this year I've seen the following changes: C - Caratini/Jeffers. Likely stays Caratini next year. Not someone I think will hit, but can field. 1B - Unsure who is playing here. Not Lewis hopefully. 2B - Changing from Keaschall to Clemens is a plus. Also an average to above average hitter (That's 1) 3B - Changing from Lewis to Lee was a big defensive upgrade. Average to above average hitter (That's 2) SS - Changing from Lee to Kreidler/Culpepper was a big defensive upgrade. I believe Culpepper is a hitter (3) LF - Changing to any human on the planet from Larnach is an upgrade. I think Erod will stick (4) CF - No change here with Buck RF - Keaschall is better than Wallner, though not much to write home about. Def. hitter. (5) I see a total of 5 spots that look to be defensive upgrades. If Buxton is CF and Jenkins is RF, then all the better in the OF. Possibly adding 1B to the list with Keaschall. A lot riding on young players but guys fit better where they are now and the young guys bring upside, defensive chops, and athleticism.
  8. TheLeviathan
    I clipped this part to respond because I think Richie's post hit on a lot of what I was going to say; I like this article from Nick, I think it synthesizes the analysis well on this season. The one disagreement I'd have is that Nick was really close to drawing the conclusion I think he was actually feeling at the end but never quite says it: by record this team "exceeded" expectations but it was honestly just dumb luck. Their run differential record (75) and Pythag record (74) both demonstrate this but even moreso as Richie says they benefited from playing in a really bad AL that padded their wins. They had about a month and a half of crazy good sequencing and luck, then got those stats to level off when they had the exact opposite luck down the stretch. But mostly what feels like it was better than expected was more of a reflection on how bad the AL was than anything the Twins actually did to exceed expectations. We expected them to be bad and they pretty much were bad. Good news though, as Richie points out, we've got a much better defensive path going forward. I think the team has decided to turn the page to some fresh new talent. We can only hope they lean into that and Tom Pohlad realizes the best chance he has to get that franchise valuation up is to stay out of the ear of the fanbase and his GM and let the baseball professionals make the hard decisions in the name of a brighter future.
  9. TheLeviathan
    What you reference were public comments as part of a canned, performative presentation of a "mutual parting of ways" which, no, I have never believed anyone, ever, when they have those press conferences. I trust the beat reporters much more because they're going to report the actual reasons, not the nothingburger being served to the public.
  10. TheLeviathan
    Just saw the video, what an amazing way to go out for him.
  11. TheLeviathan
    You continue to assert this, but it's not what Gleeman and others have insinuated the real reason was: shifting ownership vision. As we've discussed before, your version of the events simply doesn't explain the timing or circumstances nearly as well as my belief. According to at least one poster here, Gleeman has even hinted as much on his podcast as well. This is, as with all things, a Pohlad issue.
  12. TheLeviathan
    I'm not sure I agree. We are on a better track but I still have a couple big questions: Where is Keaschall's permanent home? Is it RF or is it 1B? If it's not 1B...who is that guy? When do we start getting Culpepper reps at 2B if that is his ultimate home? Things are looking better, though. The days of Lee at SS, Larnach in LF, Keaschall at 2B, etc were some dark defensive days.
  13. TheLeviathan
    Other than the blip against Atlanta they had largely played their way out meaningful games before September even rolled around.
  14. TheLeviathan
    I don't see it happening, but I hope I'm wrong. Consider this: Falvey - a guy who wormed his way into overstaying his welcome far longer than his resume says he deserved by buttering himself up to ownership- left because he wasn't a big enough "yes man" for the latest Pohlad and was pushing back on the team aborting the rebuild plan. Zoll said "yes sir, whatever you say sir!". I think we're stuck with him.
  15. TheLeviathan
    That Cowboys Micah Parsons trade just keeps looking better for them. Other than, you know, using it to actually make their defense better.
  16. TheLeviathan
    This feels like a trap game. The Bucs are a real good run defense thanks to Vita Vea so we won't be able to just smash the run button over and over again and win this game with our defense. Murray is the key to this game and I just don't know what to expect. He's been a terrible QB for awhile and the handful of snaps he took in game 1 did nothing to dissuade that opinion. So...buckle up I guess. The passing attack should be good against their awful backend, but it feels like it'll turn out weird and we lose.
  17. TheLeviathan
    I don't love Clemens at 2B. I'd rather find a defensive guy there and let him have 1B. But we're not in a good spot to be choosy either.
  18. TheLeviathan
    Like the post, but more I'm responding because you're the first person I've seen with enough integrity to call themselves out for the deadline and the "seduction" that swayed so many. We all get things wrong, the problem isn't the error in judgment but the continued commitment to it even after the dust settles. Kudos sir.
  19. TheLeviathan
    Narrator: No, it wasn't. It was also totally, predictably the wrong thing before it happened.
  20. TheLeviathan
    I agree in principle, but with the CBA looming and potential for young players to hit free agency much earlier....I'm not sure any team pulls that off in this calendar year.
  21. TheLeviathan
    Well....8M was enough for some of you to be totally bought off as "no more half measures" at the deadline. Seems like TD is happy right about there. 2027 isn't about payroll. It's about building for 2028. The payroll question is coming in 2-3 years if we can develop the talented core we're potentially working with. And we'll likely need to supplement because we actively chose not to supplement them when we had the chance to put aside delusions and sell when the selling was good.
  22. TheLeviathan
    Well, the beefy data set is the platoon split advantage. Given that well-established evidence, you're going to need a lot of contextual data to dispute it. I'm not saying you're wrong, there may even be really strong evidence that some teams are executing the strategy far better than we are too. I'd be curious to see how it plays out, I just think there is a lot of angles you'll have to compile to get there given your inability (darn space time continum) to run a counterfactual. How about this....we only play switch hitters. Problem solved!
  23. TheLeviathan
    I'm not sure what you mean by that last sentence, but I think @MN Briangave you a helpful start in the right direction. With the platoon advantages having a well-established data set to verify them, you're swimming upstream before you start. Couple that with the impossibility of knowing a (results with platoons) to not-a (results with no platoons) and you're going to have to have a robust dataset that includes not just the outcome of success vs. rhp/lhp, but percentages of plate appearances all teams have in which a platoon advantage exists, the success rates of those at-bats, the success rate of those teams, a broader context of the players themselves and their platoon splits, and a variety of other data points synthesized in one place to be able to draw any conclusions that run counter to that beefy data set we already know is true. I tend to think we over do it, but my qualms are mostly with our developmental process. (In more ways than one) Once they get to the big leagues I trust our internal scouting to make the best decisions possible rather than force feeding lefty on lefty matchups.
  24. TheLeviathan
    I'm not even sure what your thesis is. Never platoon? Platoon less? Don't pinch-hit mid-game? Platoon, but not when guys are on a hot streak? I think your data is interesting but it seems like it can mostly be explained by the fact that a bad offense regressed back to being bad after having an unholy degree of luck for about a month.
  25. TheLeviathan
    There is just no world in which it can be argued the deadline was a success. It was a catastrophic failure. There was no fan boost immediately after and any goodwill has long since died with the entire month of September being out of contention. The team didn't get boosted by half-measure moves that merely elevated their floor. There was absolutely nothing accomplished. I think the deals themselves were fine in terms of value, but the true outcome is years from knowing. If any of those prospects do become players, it's more salt in an already gaping wound. What we do know, and why this is the F-st F that ever F'd, is that they LOST value in holding on to Jeffers, Ryan, and Larnach to chase the delusion they were contenders. We did significant damage to our long-term upside so that Tom Pohlad could crow to the media and diehards here could lap it up while lecturing the rest of us on why it was such a great moment for Twins baseball. F. And one we'll be talking about for years and the value it cost this franchise.
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