TheLeviathan

Anyone know what the available bench looks like for today? I assume no Kepler, yes to Sanchez, but are there any other warm bodies?

Is it just me or did Minaya look like a man who aged two decades since the last time we saw him?

Worth noting: the FO and Baldelli have stated that they work in concert. Each of Baldelli's decisions may be micro, but the reasons behind them are generally decided on a macro level. Taking issue with them is certainly fine, but remember that anything we say about what he "should" have done is arguing a counterfactual. We'll never know if what we think is better would have actually been better. Also worth noting.....considering the team's record, it certainly appears that the vast majority of his decisions are working well. Putting in Megill over Smith. Or Duran over Duffey. Or pulling X guy here. Take your pick in any of our W's so far this year. We all have the tendency not to count all those positive, micro decisions in our moments of frustration. Given the team's record, I think it's fair to say maybe he deserves some credit there....no? There will always be a human element and that element will always be subject to mistakes. Hell, baseball has a ton of randomness to it, no amount of computing or guts can perfectly navigate that minefield. All you can do is look for advantages and analytics, IMO, helps eliminate noise and bias for teams to do that. How we use it can certainly be subject to mistakes and criticism.

Respectfully, we don't know what information he's working with so declaring that he read it wrong is not really fair. We can certainly dislike the ideas and the outcomes, I've voiced as much a few times lately, but some of your conclusions are a bit unfair. Analytics aren't a bulletproof strategy, they provide advantages over a larger sample size. You might notice that at no point have I used one particular example, because that isn't a good way to approach it. A single decision, using analytics, could be wrong based on the decision maker and the circumstances. (Or just dumb luck) The benefit of an analytical approach is on the macro level. To that end, the team HAS changed. Significantly. Three years ago (and again the last two years, their biggest mistakes) they went with uppercut swings, aggressive plate appearances, and minimal small ball. Driven by the data they had on launch angles and ball flight....they were right! 2019 they were a freaking launching pad that got thwarted by the small sample of the playoffs combined with MLB swapping out the baseballs on them. 2020 was largely the same positive result. The problem was that they were not flexible enough last year to realize that path was doomed. But this year they did. Their launch angles are down. Their plate appearances involve the most 1-0 counts in baseball and the league's highest OBP. (at least as of a few days ago) They have completely, radically changed their approach driven by the data and the new baseballs. (Not to mention the uptick in off speed pitches being thrown) So, frankly, you're wrong. They have quite obviously changed. They haven't just slightly altered the team's approach, it's like watching a completely different organization from 2020. Analytics is about being data driven. That comes down to having good data and good analysts. When things go south it could be blamed on either of those things. When it goes well, it also gets credit. The key for any good team using data is to be smart and ahead of the curve on which data points they value and how they translate that into success. Shouting down "analytics" like some monolithic boogeyman misses the real nature of their use.

Since he appears to be a warm body. Yes....yes he could be.

I liked the signing then, I had no problem with Donaldson's personality overall (recent comments not withstanding), and I think trading him for Sanchez and Urshela so we could add Correa has been great for this team. I think it has opened the door for a different kind of leadership that seems to be resonating well so far. Donaldson was a good, productive player for us. It was also the right time and way to move him.

I think he means this incident. In fairness, he's had a lot of these encounters so it's hard to keep track.

That isn't the logical conclusion at all. It's specious reasoning. Analytics is a process/approach to decision making, sometimes it will be used to great success and other times not so much. But let's be clear: Analytics is NOT "computer says, we do". That notion is absurd. What data analysis does is look for patterns that should drive decision making towards the best chance at the best outcome. It assures nothing, it is an aggregator that guides best practices by looking for patterns. The team is simply following that guide the best it can in the context of each individual game. Sometimes it will yield wonderful results (which are easy to forget or not notice because it was successful) and other times it doesn't. There are no guarantees no matter the approach you use. Rocco going with his gut and leaving Smeltzer in there might well have blown out the kid's elbow or caused the same result. Last year the analysis the Twins did on data yielded horrible results. They incorrectly saw Simmons, Happ, etc. as viable solutions. They were absolutely wrong. This year it's abundantly clear that they shifted the focus of their analytics and strategies to better success. It's the kind of philosophical change of gears you only see with a team invested in analytics. If this was the Terry Ryan regimes of old we wouldn't see this pivot because they were never able to do anything other than "their way". (Something they were quite proud of even as it mired us in losing) Analytics offers the opportunity to be flexible and responsive, which this team's success is demonstrating. There are no perfect solutions and it isn't robotic. It definitely doesn't have to be this kind of boogeyman.

For sure. It will just take a myriad of approaches, none of which individually should be held to the standard of THE solution.

I agree great pitching helps get you there over 162. I took that back and forth as being more about WS wins with the teams you guys were discussing specifically. I tend to lean towards good depth over elite, but no doubt they both help.

10 runs can happen fairly quickly. It's 25 pitches without an out that'll kill ya.

Nice defense boys.

Those were 85 pretty crappy pitches tonight.

Analytics is why the team is working more counts, going the opposite way, leveling their swings, changing the way their pitchers approach their craft, employing defense and shifts, etc. Seriously, your argument is pure emotion. It has absolutely no basis in fact. Analytics is not some evil boogeyman.

Just to point this out, having someone we decide is an ace doesn't mean they pitched like one on a WS winner. Kershaw, for example, is the best pitcher of his generation and has a decidedly mediocre playoff record. He performed well in 2020, but in every other year he had been pretty lousy. Verlander had an ERA approaching 6 in the WS win over the Nationals. Lincecum was only a starter in 2010. So sometimes it's worth digging a little deeper past the surface on these things. I wouldn't quibble with calling any of the names you mentioned "Aces" (though I find the term mostly a recipe for silliness)....but we often brush over looking at the actual results. We just see the name and assume they performed. That is frequently not the case.

Analytics is why this team is in first place.

Perhaps my phrasing of "stretched out" is problematic. Maybe it's more like he's on a regiment with limits given his time away? As in.....we'll let you flirt with 80, but we're not going past that until you've been pitching for awhile.

It's not lazy, it's just reality. In the case of any of the players you listed, did they pitch in 2021? Because Smeltzer didn't. I think people forget that he's coming back from injury and hasn't been all that stretched out given the time he's missed. Teams have pitch limits and plans for players with injuries like the one Smeltzer endured and given the time missed. It's ok not to like that, but everyone does it. It probably has medical merit as well, even if we don't like it. The mistake, IMO, was in the choice to replace him (I'm good with Duran too!) or to pull the escape hatch on Duffey when it was obvious things were going south. That was a classic "Joe Smith comes in and throws two pitches" situation and we let Duffey rot. That part is inexplicable to me.

It was the most he had thrown all year. If he wasn't stretched out for more than you don't run the risk of injury. This is the reality for all teams right now. Your argument lacks the necessary context.

Definitely feels like we snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. * Going to the pen in the 8th is totally ok with me. Not warming someone up when the second guy reached was a mistake. When Duffey is on, he's on. But when things go sideways he has a tendency to unravel. * As others have said, the Royals blue-printed the way to approach it in the top of the inning, but Gordon should've been the pinch runner. *I feel like there have been a lot of times this year where I scratch my head at our third base coach's decisions. Nobody out and bases loaded is a time you have to execute, but it should've been a tie game at that point.

I do think we'll have a problem, even with law changes, of having that same success due to our culture around guns. But too much of the argument around solutions on this is about some kind of perfect silver bullet. There isn't one. (At least not a viable one)

Defensively he's a bit rough and I know a lot of people wanted him out for that reason. Truth is...he's not that bad defensively. He's no star, but he's servicable. I said last year that I'd rather move Polanco to short than give up on Arraez. He brings too much value to the table, not just in terms of OBP but the way he works counts and pitchers. It's old school, but he's a tone setter. I'm with the article Mike linked above....lock the man up. We'll find a spot for him to play.

Phoenix is a long gameday commute....

The honey butter there is pretty outstanding though.....

I'll admit I was definitely on the "I'm over Kepler" train and couldn't have been more wrong. For all the flack "nerdy" baseball gets, the Twins are executing it how it's supposed to work. Using analytics doesn't necessarily conclude that strikeouts are ok and you should always hit homeruns, it's about finding market inefficiencies and exploiting trends. So what have the Twins done? They know teams are throwing more breaking balls so they are being more patient, working counts in their favor. Waiting back means they have to use the whole field more....so they do. A lack of homeruns and long-balls means you need to be willing to run and bunt more often....and they are. Pitching is dominating so what do the Twins emphasize? Defense! Don't hurt yourself in the field and get extra outs compared to your opponent and you win more often. Kepler is a great example. The coaches leveled his swing, producing more line drives, and he's producing better contact. This is what analytics does. For those in the back who need it one more time,