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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    You can cut Grossman irrespective of adding Cron. So that really doesn't fly. 5M against next year's budget is not a marginal cost in adding a bullpen player. It could be as much as 40-50% of what your offer is per year. Ditto for many of the MIF guys we might consider.
  2. TheLeviathan
    Are the splits worth 5M? If not, I don't see the point. Take that 5M and add it to a bid for a reliever. You know, chase wins where you can rather than add redundancy.
  3. TheLeviathan
    One that plays a different position. Like outfield. Or first and third. We already have a right handed hitting 1B who put up a .782 OPS and makes the league minimum. Cron is redundant and we paid 5M for that redundancy. To use your phrase - I'd rather use that 5M to chase wins in the bullpen, outfield, or other positions. We won't get many wins for that 5M increase over Austin. MLB teams simply do not have the space on a 25 man roster for redundancy unless the guys are ridiculously good. And that adjective does not fit Cron.
  4. TheLeviathan
    You don't seem to believe that argument in this thread?
  5. TheLeviathan
    You're paying 5M over 500k for an increase in OPS of .044. You keep making his .800 OPS out to be significantly more than Austin. Austin put up a .782 OPS. I don't consider it worth 5M and a roster spot to up that to .816. Especially since the two players play the same position. The majority of Cron's career has not been a .816 OPS player. He was just DFA'd by the Rays. I think counting on him to be a 30 HR, .800 OPS guy is fool's gold. The roster spot just used on Cron should've been used on a right-handed outfielder. Not a limited corner infielder. We have those.
  6. TheLeviathan
    4-5M is considerably more than the minimum. And Cron does not have a track record of 30 and .800. In fact, his track record looks a lot like what Austin did last year.
  7. TheLeviathan
    I'm not penciling either of them into 30 HRs and an OPS north of .800. Given the same number of at-bats, I think the two will have roughly similar numbers. Which I'd put closer to .775 and 25 bombs. If either Austin or Cron could play other positions....fine. But as they are, these two feel entirely redundant. And if they're redundant - I'd rather keep the younger, cheaper one.
  8. TheLeviathan
    4M and a roster spot certainly could be downside. I feel like we already have CJ Cron at an eighth of the price in Austin. This....makes no sense to me. I hope it works out, but I don't like this as a starting point for the offseason.
  9. TheLeviathan
    They have been mentioned, but the focus is on STL. Everyone, including Twins' beat writers, indicate that the talks never got past the preliminary stages.
  10. TheLeviathan
    It's a good win and there is some small progress, but it's hard to judge. They had some really good wins (at Wisconsin, dominate Purdue, beat Fresno) and some absolutely inexcusable losses.
  11. TheLeviathan
    Counterfactuals man. You are neck deep in them and I'm not sure you understand that.
  12. TheLeviathan
    We know next to nothing about these men. We have to hope that the FO is organizing the coaching staff around the principles they believe in. And then we'll judge the outcomes.
  13. TheLeviathan
    Honestly, I'd rather not have any of these guys. Maybe Donaldson, but he might be cooked. He's got upside, so I wouldn't complain, but I'd rather invest elsewhere I think.
  14. TheLeviathan
    Hope he works out!
  15. TheLeviathan
    House of Cards should've been mercifully put down 3 seasons ago. It was so brilliant to start and it has fallen so, so far since.
  16. TheLeviathan
    And this comes back to why WAR may not be all that useful to this discussion. I doubt most people are going to be thrilled with a .650 OPS player in the every day lineup no matter what his WAR total is. My point is simply this -we have significant samples in which he has NOT hit. Most of his time in the big leagues so far, in fact. And at times, as you said in the post I quoted, it's not just that he's been bad. He's been historically bad. With all sorts of serious red flags all over his offensive profile. It is a very real downside that those samples become the reality. And that should be acknowledged, even if you want to bet on the upside.
  17. TheLeviathan
    Again, I'm not giving up on Buxton. He's right there in CF in my blueprint. The talent is obvious, I haven't given up on him. He's abundantly more talented than Florimon of course. None of that changes the fact that his floor is a guy who can't hit. And no matter how good your defense is, it won't keep you on the field if you can't hit. Like me, you sound like you're under no illusions about what the downside is. All I'm pushing back on is what I feel is an unfair counter argument to concerns about him. The concerns are legit and based on significant samples.
  18. TheLeviathan
    This all misses the point. Nick has been insinuating Buxton can be a major league player based on defense alone. I brought up Florimon putting up a 12 WAR defensive effort for the Twins one year as proof that defense alone is not enough. None of us were singing Florimon's praises that year because he has such an awesome dWAR. We were all wondering how the hell we were letting a guy with a .600 OPS play every day. If Buxton can't be more than a .600-.700 OPS player he will have trouble staying in the big leagues. Regardless of what he brings with the glove. That's the point.
  19. TheLeviathan
    I'm not cherry picking when it happens for half a season Nick. I think you've started with a thesis that is flawed and now you're really reaching to defend it. You've said Buxton has made steady progress. That injuries are explaining away his struggles. That anyone who posts about 3 month stretches is cherry picking. It's clear none of us can say anything to get you to take a second look at your "floor" talk. Ok....well, maybe this guy can: I disagree that Nick Nelson has not seen Buxton's floor. Nick Nelson circa 2017 also seems to agree with me.
  20. TheLeviathan
    2018 was not the only time Buxton has been in the .600 OPS range for this team Nick. He gave us nearly 300 ABs in 2017 at .583. So, yes, he has been comparable to Florimon. Worse, even, for significant stretches. It'd be nice if you'd acknowledge that the floor with him is not nearly as high as you keep indicating. And that's a demonstrable fact. As in, hundreds of at-bats/many games, worth of evidence to the contrary. Doesn't make your desire to sign him to an extension wrong, but it's sure as hell a different context than the one you keep suggesting.
  21. TheLeviathan
    It’s not just his style of play though. He comes away from situations with debilitating injuries when others would walk away with nothing. When you make a list of fluke injuries....eventually you should consider dropping “fluke” when your list gets long enough. Having a 11.7 WAR for his defense didn’t keep Pedro Florimon on the field at shortstop. It has kept him floating in and out of a job in baseball. If Buxton can’t hit, that is what his future might look like.
  22. TheLeviathan
    This is not the score I expected to see when I got home.
  23. TheLeviathan
    I prefer Austidillo. By a lot.
  24. TheLeviathan
    I disagree that he has shown "continual" improvement. He was terrible pretty much all of 2016 until September, then came into 2017 with much the same hype he did this year and rewarded that hype with OPS totals of .433, .701, and .524. Then, yes, he had a great July and August before coming down a bit for September. Then he was absolutely awful in ST and the first few weeks of this season and everyone is in a rush to put it 100% on injuries. That is neither continual nor progressive. At best it's intermittent. I'm not giving up on Buxton, I still think he can be an impact player. But he might also be incapable of being a starting caliber player because he either can't stay healthy or can't hit enough to justify regular at-bats. Or both. That is a very real floor and we know that because we've already seen A LOT of it first hand. I can see the rationale behind locking him up, but it'd be nice if we toned down the lipstick on the pig. The downside is very real.
  25. TheLeviathan
    Buxton's defense does not matter if he can't crack a .600 OPS. So citing the WAR stat is misleading in this conversation. No one will deny he's an unbelievable defender. Bringing up WAR only matters if you'd march him out to CF with a .600 OPS (sometimes lower). So....would you? (And please.....600/650 - that's what we're talking here. The vast majority of months Byron Buxton has been a Twin he has spent them with an OPS well below .700)
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