TheLeviathan
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Everything posted by TheLeviathan
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Article: Prospect Spotlight Series: Lewis Thorpe
TheLeviathan replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think Thorpe will be a better player than most people think. He's one to watch this year. -
Nope, but as a kid who read hundreds of "Choose your own Adventures" as an 8 year old.....I will definitely be watching this. Also....the wife and I dropped the kids with the grandparents and she chose "Holmes and Watson" and let me tell you...disaster isn't even adequate. It was the worst movie I've ever paid money to watch.
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Here's the realization that helped me: Nick has baked a lot of his personal projections for the 2019 season into these rankings. I'm not saying that's right or wrong, it's just important not to try and view this as a snapshot of the present.
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When I hear the word "asset" I think present value matters, but long-term value is even more important. Assets are also something you can move, so trade value matters quite a bit too. Mine would look something like this: 1. Berrios 2. Lewis 3. Kirloff 4. Buxton 5. Sano 6. Polanco 7. Graterol 8. Romero 9. Rosario 10. Kepler 11. Garver 12. Gibson 13. Gordon 14. Gonsalves 15. Rogers 16. Javier 17. May 18. Larnoch 19. Thorpe 20. Pineda Buxton's year of control breaks his tie with Sano. Like it or not, short and long term this franchise is tied at the hip to these two. At least for now. Gibson slightly over Gordon and Gonsalves because I still think he could fetch a better prospect for him than either of those two. Gordon and Gonsalves are likely to be call-ups this year and have decent trade value, so they outweigh Javier and some of the bullpen guys. Also editing this in ...and I think this is important: I tried to do as little projecting as possible. That's one of my concerns with the other lists. This is more of a snapshot of "Where are they right now". Right now, the Twins would only get buy low offers on Sano and Buxton. People might feel like one or the other has a future higher on this asset list. I tried to avoid doing that and only take stock of them as they are right now for value to this franchise.
- 51 replies
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- taylor rogers
- max kepler
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You're trying to compare AAA and MLB results on equal footing. That's not a fair comparison. And when the footing is equal, you've gone so far as to call Buxton's 900ish OPS "raking" in AAA and Sano's 900ish OPS in AAA as "underwhelming". Slice it any way you want, if that's your evidence, it's pretty clear you're using it in a very unjustified way. The bias there is glaring. And, to date, you've tried to argue your assessment is also based on future value as well as present value, to which the Twins are also staking a lot of their success on Miguel Sano. Plan B for Sano is not apparent and depth at the position should weigh into the player's value IMO. Especially given how highly your list seems to be about Jake Cave. Yes, Buxton's option year counts in his favor, but Cave vs. ???? should count heavily for Sano too.
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I acknowledged that. But they are not basically opposites - their problem is the same: We are past 1,000 ABs and neither has established themselves as a core contributor. And the primary reason for both is disappointing offensive performances relative to expectations. Who you choose to be optimistic about is totally up to you. But if either of them do attain something closer to their expectations, they become immensely valuable to this club. If they don't, they become immensely harmful. And there are worrisome red flags for both. And it's a bit of an unfair (ridiculous really) argument to point to Buxton kicking ass in AAA versus Sano in MLB. I mean, hell, if Sano had rested his legs the rest of the season he walked out of AAA with an .895 OPS too. I don't hear much crowing about that. (With good reason, it's silly) In fact, Nick called his .895 "underwhelming" yet has no problem basking in Buxton's almost identical production. There is no Eddie Escobar to mask Sano's absence this year. If he can't man 3B, it will hurt. There is no Jake Cave lying in wait.
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This makes a lot more sense honestly. I appreciate the time you put into this. I'd even bet Nick's would look a bit more like this given hindsight.
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And you could swap the name Buxton for Sano and this paragraph still stands. At this point your only real defense is your subjective feelings. Which is fine, but the difference isn't very evidence based.
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This was going to be my first argument against Nick's inevitable Buxton argument. Sano's value should be higher for this reason. We are starting Adrianza if he goes down. That drop off is far steeper.
- 80 replies
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- stephen gonsalves
- miguel sano
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And I don't think the counter point about Cruz is at all minimized by that point.
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Schur was also Ken Tremendous on the Fire Joe Morgan blog. He's had a wildly awesome career. My degree in philosophy makes me nerd out about the show. I wish it were a tad funnier but I enjoy it. Parks and Rec is probably my second favorite sitcom all time behind the early years of the Simpsons. So, for me, it's no shame not to be that good.
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To add to this excellent post...I don't think power is the only tool that could be fit into this sentence. Put in contact, speed, defense, or any pitching attribute and I think it fits. Analytics have stopped teams from paying for what they don't think can be repeated. Regardless of the tool.
- 80 replies
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- stephen gonsalves
- miguel sano
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It's going to be hard to explain having Sano at 14 and Buxton top 5. IMO - they should be right next to each other wherever they are in the rankings. They are basically the same argument.
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- taylor rogers
- max kepler
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Correct, I think teams are hesitant to spend big on what they feel are unsustainable numbers. For Cruz, his age will eventually be a factor and it's why teams were hesitant. For Cron and LoMo it was because they were viewed as flashes in the pan. I think the Cruz signing was a good one. I think we can count on him to be productive, but we should also remember that players his age do not maintain their skills forever. When they go south, they'll go south hard. It shouldn't shock anyone if that happens this year, it's why the option year was so wise.
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Well, is it that or is it league-wide doubt about their ability to continue that production? Granted LoMo and Cruz would have doubts for different reasons, but same problem I think.
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The cast of Parks and Rec was special, I don't know if there has ever been a better ensemble than that show produced. Seinfeld worked well with four, but Parks and Rec. had a dozen characters that fit perfectly. We binged the first two seasons of the Good Place this weekend. I like the Good Place, the premise is really interesting and the show has transformed itself successfully twice. It's not nearly as laugh out loud funny as Parks and Rec, but I dig it. (Tahani's bit is getting old though, she's a bit too abrasive. Not unlike Amy Poehler was the first season of Parks)
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I had/have accepted that. Then a hypothetical was posed that made the matter more confusing. Subsequent explanations to me and Brooks have only furthered confusion. That hypothetical, and the dubious logic behind it, are to blame. But I'm done with it, Ashbury is right, clarity here is a futile endeavor beyond what has been said.
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- nick gordon
- adalberto mejia
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Holy monkey balls Nick. You introduced a theoretical in post 56. Could you go back and read that again? Maybe, just maybe, you can see how that wasn’t a productive way to illustrate your point. I’ll let it drop here, but it’s really unfair to Frame your stance as cold hard facts and mine as hypothetical after you laid out that scenario. And it’s that scenario that lead to this point.
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Please go read Nick's hypothetical again and save your obtuse accusations.
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Fine. Though I'd have an easier time not pressing if the responses stopped becoming more vexing each time. We went from a loose, easy enough explanation to trying to argue in a hypothetical whether you'd take Gordon (a fringe topp 100 prospect) or a dude who just got waived. And it was implied that the waiver claim is the right answer. Now my brain hurts trying to wrap around that.
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What Gordon could fetch in a trade is absolutely better than Cron. That should not be a disputed claim. Unless you think Gordon is worth less than it took to acquire Cron. Do you think Gordon's value is beneath nothing?
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And even if he's not, Nick can't possibly, seriously contend Nick Gordon's value is less than nothing or Luis Gil. Which is sorta what he suggested. So going back to the scenario Nick posed...no one in their right mind would refuse Gordon for Cave or Cron. You'd make that swap in a heartbeat and sign Adam Jones. Or some other 4th outfielder. Or deal for Santana. And you'd come out way ahead. If the FO refused a Gordon-esque prospect for Cron or CaveI'd want them immediately fired.
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Sure! But then Wander Javier being 16th ahead of all three makes absolutely no sense. He will provide nothing to this Twins team. Jay made a great post on the first page, I'd suggest Nick take it under consideration as this series continues.
