Velo is one thing, movement is another. If you look at the pitchf/x movement data, his fastball has flatten out this season, which makes it less effective, and I suspect is partially the reason for the decrease in GB. As far as overuse goes, the previous 2 seasons he appeared in 49 and 48% of his teams' games respectively. So far this season he has appeared in 49% of the Twins' games. Not that different usage in the past. Also, if you look at the past in 2016 he had an xFIP of 2.89, SIERA of 2.56, in 2017 3.85 FIP and 3.35 SIERA, which both are about where his ERA is at 2018. xFIP and SIERA being leading indicators (and sitting at 4.83 and 3.97 respectively right now) does not bode well for Reed. Maybe that reflects the size of the contract his signed, because he is more like a 6th or 7th inning pitcher. The problem however is, the still he likely is the best pitcher in this pen, and that is no small reason why the Twins' pen is 11th in the AL in ERA, 13th in FIP, and 12th in WPA, tied for second for the most BS and L, just a game behind the leader in that category... The pen has an 11-16 record, the rotation 18-20. And Reed has an 1-5 record. And, unlike for starters, L for relievers is a more meaningful metric.