Thrylos

When a team competes, it is about the present not the future. If the kids are good enough to produce at the major league level then they are the present. If not, the Twins need someone who can.

On the other hand, he had a .763 OPS, .238 BA, and a real nasty concussion in the AFL. The last part worries me the most about Wade, and unless I see solid contact and equally good strike zone judgement in 2018, I will be concerned. Also, I would have a hard time ranking him ahead of Rooker, Kirilloff and Baddoo as far as OFs go. Add a few pitchers, infielders, and it is hard for him to be a top 10 guy... And that's before the concussion...

CarGo throws and hits lefty. I'd rather see the Twins add starting pitching. If they don't adding a RH bat, will be adding lipstick to a pig. That said, if they add starting pitching, getting a RH OF to spell Kepler against LHPs, with a good D also (sorry Grossman) will help them, if they get sign him to an 1 yr /$5-6M deal. Only FA that can do both is Carlos Gomez. Even though he lost a step as a centerfielder, the Twins don't need one and he would be a premier defensive corner OF. Vargas needs a full season chance at DH, so old faithfulls do not need apply...

I am pretty sure that there have been about 2-3 more posts/articles here this off-season regarding extending Dozier... The Twins are an organization rich in middle infilled depth, and they better spend the $ that would take to extend Dozier towards pitching or towards extending some of their younger players. They should trade him, or give him a qualifying offer.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- This is the second segment in the 2018 Twins top 60 prospect list. You can find the introductory segment that discusses qualifications to be on this list and presents the players who were on the 2017 list but are not in this list here. You can find all segments in this series here. Here are players 56-60 in reverse order with their 2017 ranking in parenthesis. Players no in the 2017 top 60 list are indicated by (--) 60 Jesus Toledo (--) DOB: 8/25/1999; Age: 18 Positions: LHP Bats: L, Throws: L Height: 5'11", Weight: 180 lbs Acquired: Signed on July 8, 2016 from Venezuela Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: DSL (2017) ETA: 2022 Jesus Toledo signed with the Twins as an International Amateur Free Agent on July 8th ot 2016 from San Juan de los Morros, Venezuela, but did not start his professional career until last season. But when he started, it was quite a start. He started the season without allowing a run in 20-2/3 IP (4 starts, 1 relief appearance) had 4 more decent starts in July (14 IP, 3.86 ERA) and ran out of steam in August (1 start, 4 relief appearances 10-2/3 IP). His numbers for last season were: 14 G, 9 GS, 45-1/3 IP, 30 K (15.9 K%, 6.0 K/9), 17 BB (3.4 BB/9, 6.9 K-BB%), 1.26 WHIP (.293 BABIP), 2.38 ERA, 3.88 FIP. The lefty Venezuelan, who is around 6 feet tall with a true sinker and above average change up, should not be overlooked, not only because you know who, but because his stuff is that good, even though his endurance may not be at this point, which is mainly a being in shape and consistent training issue. He pitches to contact at this point allowing twice as many ground balls than fly balls, and only 2.5% of the later resulting in a home rum. He is more evective against lefties, but not bad against righties. Developing a breaking ball, improving his sinker and change and commanding his sinker better, will allow him to miss bats in the future. Likely 2018 path: In the US for String Training, extended Spring Training and starting at the CGL 59 Carson Crites (--) DOB: 1/18/1995; Age: 23 Positions: 2B Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'0", Weight: 195 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 25th round in 2017 Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: ELZ (2017) ETA: 2022 Crites who was born in Oklahoma City and went to High School in Amarillo, TX, was drafted as a senior in the 25th round of the 2017 draft from Southeastern Louisiana University. He established himself as power-speed threat his Senior year with 14 HR and 15 SB in 59 games (231 AB) while hitting .299/.386/.554. In his first season as a pro he hit .300/.349/.453 (.363 wOBA, 115 wRC+) in 38 games (166 PA). He just hit 4 HRs and stole 4 bases (in 7 attempts,) but he hit 11 doubles and overall had 50% extra base hit to hit ratio for a .153 isoP, while walking 10 (6% BB%) and striking out 28 (16.9% K%) times, which indicates that home run power will come upon further adjustment to the wood bat. Crites is a second baseman with a lot of grit. He is a bit older than the league average but he was drafted as a Senior. As a hitter, he utilizes the whole field and has about equal ground ball to fly ball ration. His .339 BABIP is similar to his .344 NCAA average (range .398-.304) so it seems sustainable. He is a similar type player to the current Twins' second baseman Brian Dozier, before the latter became a pure pull ball hitter as a major league player. At the same age and the same level, he is a bit more advanced than Dozier was as far as power (.153 vs .078 isoP) and speed (4.6 vs 4.0 fangraphs Speed) but not contact (.363 vs .392 wOBA). However players develop differently and it will be interesting to see how Crites will develop as he gets accustomed to the wooden bat. Likely 2018 path: Starting the season in Cedar Rapids (A) 58 Ben Rodriguez (--) C/1B DOB: 11/9/1994; Age: 23 Positions: C/1B Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'6", Weight: 235 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 38th round in 2017 Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: GCL (2017) ETA: 2022 Ben Rodriguez was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 38th round of the 2017 draft from Pepperdine University. The Scottsdale, AZ native was named the number 1 catcher from AZ in his High School senior class and was in the top 100 catchers in the nation in that class; however he was not drafted and went to Pepperdine University. He had a break through junior season (.289/.401/.533, 9HR, 21 BB, 48 K, in 135 PA) but a rough landing in his senior season (.230/.311/.378, 19 BB, 62 K, in 196 PA). He did rebound considerable at the GCL later last season (.290/.395/.457, 22 BB, 43 K, .404 wOBA, 144 wRC+ in 162 PA). This 1.95 K/BB ratio was his career best so far. Rodriguez played 5 games (out of 50) at catcher, but at 6'6" and 235, he has already likely outgrown the position and he appears to be a first baseman in the future. Rodriguez has very intriguing power (easy 70 on the 80 grade scale) and mashes lefties (.431/.500/.707 in 58 AB in GCL), however his long swing is not effective against same size pitching (.212/.346/.317 in 104 AB in the GCL) and neutralized by breaking balls outside the zone. He is much older for his league (+2.6 years that the average player), however it was his first time as a pro and was drafted as a senior. The power intrigue is there, and overall his transition to wood has proven positive. Cutting down the strikeouts and finding a way to attack right hand pitching will go a long way towards his development. Likely 2018 path: Extended Spring Training and then Elizabethton (Rk) with potential trips to Cedar Rapids if the need appears. 57 Nelson Molina, (47) DOB: 4/30/1995; Age: 22 Positions: IF Bats: L, Throws: R Height: 6'3", Weight: 175 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 11th round in 2013 Professional Experience: 5; Highest level: AA (2017) ETA: 2020 Nelson Molina was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 11th round of the 2013 MLB Draft from the Antonio Luchetti High School in Arecibo, PR. He has been developing slowly for the Twins, starting and repeating the GCL level his first two seasons, moving to Elizabethton in 2015 and to A level Cedar Rapids in 2016. He was drafted as a SS, but has played every infield and the corner outfield positions, concentrating at third base before last season and moved to 2B primarily this season, while still playing 1B, 3B, SS, LF and RF. Molina had good plate discipline, but had a hard time making contact. Something clicked for him in 2016 at Cedar Rapids, hitting .300/.374/.381 overall (with only a 13.9 K% and 9.9 BB%) and .321/.383/.419 against RHPs. However last season at Fort Myers (he also had 11 AB in 3 games at Chattanooga) he regressed to a .243/.285/.342 slash line overall and .249/.285/.358 against RHPs. He is tall and lanky with limited power, but the potential to establish it as he grows. He has some speed, stealing 12 bases in Elizabethton, but this season he only had 6 attempts (and 5 SB.) He has been improving with the glove, esp. after being moved away from third base that is his worse position. His bat used to be ahead of his glove, but caught up last season in the wrong direction. The Twins like his versatility but the key to making it to the majors will be his bat. There are early indications that his 2016 .755 OPS, .354 wOBA, 125 wRC+ season at Cedar Rapids might be the exception, since he could not repeat his BABIP (.349) which regressed last season to .275 that is a bit better than his .258 career average. At 22 he is still young but next season will be his 6th as a professional and likely a make or break season. Likely 2018 path: On the Chattanooga roster as a utility player 56 Sandy Lugo, (--) RHP DOB: 3/26/1995; Age: 22 Positions: IF Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'0", Weight: 170 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the minor league portion of the 2017 Rule 5 draft from Reds Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A+ (2017) ETA: 2020 The Twins drafted Sandy Lugo in the minor league portion of the 2017 Rule 5 draft from the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds signed the Las Matas de Farfan, Dominican Republic native on May 14, 2014. Lugo moved fairly quickly in their system playing in the DSL that season: 19 G, 2 GS, 49-2/3 IP, 61 K (11.1 K/9, 28.9 K%) 16 BB (2.9 BB/9, 21.3 K-BB%) 2.90 ERA, 1.91 FIP, 1.19 WHIP and 13 wild pitches. The 2015 season Lugo came to the States cruising through their Arizona League Rookie squad in 4 games and moving up to high altitude Rookie Pioneer League Billings Mustangs where he appeared in 13 games with 17-2/3 IP, striking out 23 (11.7 K/9, 28.1 K%), walking 8 (4.1 BB/9, 18.3 K-BB%) with a 5.60 ERA, 4.54 FIP and 1.47 WHIP. In 2016 he moved to the Midwest League (A) Dayton Dragons where he appeared in 30 games for 55 innings, striking out 77 (12.6 K/9, 34.4 K%) walking 13 (2.1 BB/9, 28.6 K-BB%) and throwing 8 wild pitches with a 2.45 ERA, 2.91 FIP and 1.07 WHIP. Last season after 5 games in Dayton, he moved to High A Daytona (Florida State League) where he appeared in 42 games, pitched 64-1/3 innings, struck out 82 (11.5 K/9, 28.6 K%), walked 40 (5.6 BB/9, 14.6 K-BB%), threw 16 wild pitches hit 5 batters, and had a 5.32 ERA, 3.87 FIP, and 1.41 WHIP. The twenty-two year old has a 91-94 mph fastball that on occasion touches a couple ticks more, but his best pitch is a true plus upper 70s curveball. His problem has been command and control of his fastball, which has abandoned him at times. The Twins have probably seen enough of his the past 2 seasons in the Midwest and Florida State Leagues to think that they can help him command his fastball to go with his plus curveball. The key for Lugo is to do exactly that and get ahead in the count. Otherwise hitters who can recognize the spin of the ball will just ignore the curve and sit on his fastball. Definitely a work in process but the potential is there Likely 2018 path: Repeating the FSL with the Miracle to start the season with a possible promotion to Chattannooga depending on command of the fastball. Next: 55-51

Remember there were a lot of changes in the Minors last off-season. There is a brand new Minor League director as well as Pitching coordinator. So maybe they did not give them thorough instructions... Good to hear from Ober. If he gets his mechanics down and gets a couple more ticks in his fastball, he could be a force.

Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- I usually start and post my top 60 Twins' prospect list a bit earlier that this (last year the first post was January 10th) because I want to pay full attention to Spring Training when that starts, and it starts soon. However, I waited longer this season because I expected the Twins to make moves that may affect this list. They really did not. If such a move occurs, and a newcomer is ranked 35th, I will keep the original list intact, rank the newcomer 35a and the previous number 35 prospect 35b. It will be interesting to see what the future brings as far as this aspect is concerned. I will be posting in reverse rankings starting next week, from number 60 to number 1, in chunks of 5, and a final summary post, total 13 posts. I am hoping to be posting up to 3 a week to finish by the end of February. The inclusion criteria from my list is different than those for most prospect lists that include everyone with rookie eligibility as a prospect. As far as this list is concerned, anyone who has made it to the majors has "graduated" from prospect status, so is ineligible. I am including an additional criterion this year: everyone for whom 2018 will be his age 26 or older season, will be excluded because he "came of age" to be regarded as a prospect. As a baseline here is the Twins 2017 off-season top 60 prospect list, and here is that summary with links to individual profiles and scouting reports. There is a lot of churn in the Twins top 60 from 2017 to 2018. Only 27 players are returning from the 2017 list and there are 33 new comers, and some highly ranked. Here are the players who were in the 2017 list, but dropped for reasons other than performance, with their 2017 ranking in parenthesis, and the reason they were dropped: Daniel Palka (7) OF, - claimed on waivers Adalbelto Mejia (9) LHP, - graduated Mitch Garver (10) C, - graduated Nick Burdi (12) RHRP, - selected on Rule 5 draft Engelb Vielma SS (14), - claimed on waivers Mason Melotakis (18), LHRP, - came of age Amaurys Minier (19) OF/1B, - released Huascar Ynoa (20), RHSP, - traded Justin Haley (21) RHP, - returned from Rule 5 pick Felix Jorge (23), RHSP, - graduated Niko Goodrum (26), CF/IF, - graduated, left as a MiLB FA Trevor Hildenberger (27) RHP - graduated D.J. Baxendale, (28) RHP; - came of age Dereck Rodriguez, (34) RHP – - came of age, left as a MiLB FA John Curtiss, (35) RHP; - graduated Travis Harrison (37), OF/1B, - released Aaron Slegers (38), RHP - graduated Levi Michael (40), 2B, - came of age Brandon Peterson (42), RHRP, - came of age, left as a MiLB FA Zach Granite, (43) OF, - graduated Jason Wheeler (51) LHP, - graduated, traded Michael Cederoth (60) RHP - Released The following 4 players came to the organization too late to be included in the 2017 list, or were not there for other reasons, but they are excluded from the 2018 list: (--) LHP Gabriel Moya - graduated (--) LHP Dietriech Enns - graduated, came of age (--) RHP Nick Anderson - came of age (--) C Wynston Sawyer - came of age As last season, unless he becomes a full-time professional baseball player, Griffin Jax will not be included because of high risk The following 10 players were included in the 2017 list (ranking in parenthesis) but dropped from the 2018 list, due to performance, progression, and/or better newcomers: Michael Theophanopoulos (33), LHP Brandon Lopez (41) SS Humberto Maldonado (44) OF Tyler Benninghoff, (46) RHP Taylor Clemensia (48) LHP Eduardo Del Rosario (49) RHP Jordan Balazovic, (50) RHP Zander Wiel, (53) 1B Colton Davis (56) RHP Williams Ramirez (57) RHP Next: Twins prospects 56-60

Allegedly he already has a 5 year offer on the table, which I suspect guarantees at least double of that $56 million...

The fact that he struck out more than 209 hitters for 3 seasons, might make it a bit easier to swallow BTW, he was hurt for 2 seasons and part of a third, so the 200 IP/season a pretty bad measuring stick. IP/season matter less than IP/start and his career average is 6.53 IP/S so when given as many starts as Ervin Santana last season, this averages to 209-2/3 innings per season. So that's that.

Cobb/Lynn sounds a bit too much like Hughes/Nolasco for me to be comfortable with that. The Twins do have mid rotation starters. They need a clear top of the rotation starter and neither Cobb nor Lynn is that...

This is good stuff, other than the last sentence Got to scrutinize Hildenberger's performance, just a tad more, esp. against AL Central opponents before naming him a set up guy... Reed can be the Twins MIller for sure, and let Rodney close this season. And that's that.

Why is Puckett still there then?

Congrats to Johan and well deserved. Not having Knoblauch in the Twins' HOF is a travesty.

I am happy that Eades was not picked in the Rule 5 draft. Last spring he developed a pretty nasty two-seamer that in relief the threw at 94-95. Give him a couple of ticks during the season, and he can be nasty. If they quit starting him (which I think is a problem) he can be a top reliever... Let him focus in one thing.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ----- With the recent slew of raw data we have about hitters, based on Statcast, new metrics based on that raw data have been developed to predict hitter performance, based on objective measurements, such as bat exit speed and launch angle. One of these metrics is the expected weighted on base average, or xwOBA. It is meant to compare directly to wOBA, in a manner similar to that of xFIP to FIP comparison's for pitchers. And in the same manner if xFIP-FIP is a positive number for a player, as a baseline, you expect a player to improve next season, and the opposite if it is a negative numbers. Of course, this is one factor, and additional factors, like training, mechanics change, adding muscle etc, will affect future performance; however, unlike xwOBA-xOBA, they are hard to measure. wOBA tries to measure a player's total offensive performance based on a series of weighted operations on offensive events on a players. The link will give you some basic information on the metric. xwOBA is a similar formula based on Statcast exit speed and launch angle. The link explains in detail the metric. Here are the xwOBA for the 2017 Twins' batters in two groups: The ones expected to improve in 2018: The ones expected to decline in 2018: As indicated only Joe Mauer, and in a lesser degree, Jason Castro are projected to improve, as far as the 2018 startling 9 of the Twins go. Pretty much everyone else is projected to decline. If one looks at several projections about what the 2018 will do, which are based on xwOBA, expect them to show an overall decline in wins. There is a silver lining: Other than Brian Dozier (and free agent Chris Gimenez,) most of the Twins' hitters expected to decline based on this formula are young, and the other factors like development, changes in mechanics, could easily trump these projections. If the 2017 Twins' hitters were an older bunch, things would have been different.

To have a root cause there needs to be a problem. There is a good number of fans out there who think that there is no problem in the pace of game or the duration of games (Two different things btw). What is next? 7 inning games at double headers? Extra innings up to 10 and then either have a tie or have 5 HR derby shots (think penalty shots in soccer)? If it ain't broken...

Or speed up fake injuries...

I think that a lot of this is politics. The players and the owners are not on the same page, in general, right now and the players want nothing of the backlash those new measures might bring. That said, I'd rather see them get rid of: character races, T-shirt canons, children's games, dedications to veterans, anthem choir and bands, and everything else non-baseball related between innings or before the first pitch, and then try to change the game. Also there are lower hanging fruits than those: the ridiculous number of throws to first base. Even with the proposed rules, someone can throw 10 times without an effect. That's got to stop.

Great stuff A. Got to be mentioned that, on the other hand, Rosario had a career high on every single offensive measurement. B. Three data points is a very small sample size. Would love to see monthly averages instead of seasonal. That will tell you whether he had months that dragged his seasonal performance down. For sure the first half he had more ground balls than fly balls (1.5x), a trend reversed the second half, and I wonder whether that had something to do with it. C. would love to see where the other Twins' OFs (Kepler & Grossman) are in the same principles.

Agree on the first part. Disagree on the second. I am just hoping that Jacksonville beats the Patriots. The Patriots have ways to get their way. They are the Packers of the AFC. People in the Philadelphia area are really scared of the Vikings, and with Foles as their QB, I concur.

The Twins' two greatest finishes were: a. Reardon's last pitch in '87 b. Morris's last pitch in '91 (chronological order) Those 2 events made them World Champions. Cannot have a better finish than that. The Vikings had a great finish the other day, but still 2 more games. I don't follow the lesser ( ) of Minnesota sports, so have no opinion on those...

The FO effectively thought that Kinley was better than both Burdi and Bard (who btw could be in the conversation if returned), I'd give them the benefit of doubt. Busenitz's .212 BABIP and 86.6% LOB, along with the 4.20 FIP and 4.98 DRA are screaming regression at this point. Another issue with Busenitz is that he has been a pitch to contact type with only 7.2% swstr. His contact percentage 85.4% is at Nic_ Blac_burn territory (career 88.4% ave)

I wouldn't say that anyone with options is a "lock" for the 2018 Twins pen. There are 4 pitchers out of options (Rodney, Reed, Duke, Pressly). If they like to keep Kinsley that makes it 5 and if both Hughes and May ended up in the pen, that's it for Rogers and Hildy, as far as starting the season in the majors... Not to mention Pineda slated to return after the AS Break, and likely will pitch out of the pen this season. I assume that they will get at least one starter. Log jam. They need to start trading people.

So how much should Kershaw get next off-season? Long term deals for pitchers over 30 are too risky. Ask Phil Hughes if you don't believe me. I don't see Darvish getting more than 4 years and more than $22.5 AAV guaranteed. No problem with a couple of options at the end.

Slegers need to be added as well.. Replacement level dime a dozen arm.