TopGunn#22

Hindsight is 20/20. Who knew our offense would be THIS pathetic? Plus we did need to improve our pitching. but lets take a look at some recent trades and the impact of each.
Lets get the big one out of the way early here.  Arraez for Lopez.  You have to give something to get something, and yes I think we all knew we were giving away the probable2023 batting champ, seriously??? .400???  Just imagine what he would be doing in our lineup?!?!!!  He would most likely be playing 1B so lets take a look at the Twins 1B stats. Arraez for Lopez (+prospects)
Twins 1B = 9 HR 32 RBI  35 BB 80 K  251/357/435 slash line for a .792 OPS. nto horrible  NOTE MLB does not assign Runs when sort by position, but Would assume we would be near the bottom.
Arraez =  2 HR  35 RBI  21 BB 15 K 400/450/490 slash line for a .940 OPS.  his 31 runs seems low for getting on base that much, but he gets on base!!!  and does not strike out!!
Lopex has been decent. not spectacular, but #2 in AL with  110K, he hsa a top 16 in AL WHIP at 1.14. ERA is pedestrian 4.4o before tonight's tough outing. We were able to extend him which has some value.  Overall a decent #3 starter for a batting champ hitting .400?  that is a bit tough.  BUT we did get 2 prospects as well.
 Jose Salas. 20 yr old SS at High A. struggling, but a top 10 prospect in our system.  Byron Chourio, 18 year old in Rookie league... TBD
RESULT? would still POSSIBLY do it, it had to be done but still hurt, now knowing how bad the offense is struggling it is a coinflip if I'd redo,  but fair enough.
Tyler Mahle Trade. This one was 2022 but still counts as it is impacting 2023.
Mahle had a huge injury risk before trading for him, so this is not revisionist history. this trade just straight up should not have been done!!! or at least not given up what we did.  What did we give up?
Spencer Steer. versatile player. we probably didn't have much room for him, but he is having a strong RC campaign in Cinci. but again, redundant here so I understand including him.  P Steve Hajjar, with all due respect to Steve, a bit of a nothing burger here.  But what made me throw my computer (figuratively) seeing this trade was the inclusion fo Christian Encarnacion Strand. This kid is a BEAST. and should have been untouchable. career .325/388/614 for a 1.002 OPS!!
This is a trade that should make GMs lose their jobs.  Without CES, I am ok with it. you trade a blocked above average prospect for a pitcher who is good when healthy but big injury concerns.  btu the CES makes this HORRID!!!
Another 2022 that Many of us saw falling completely apart before the first pitch was thrown was the Chris Paddack trade.
Paddack for Rogers and Rooker.  OK a bit of revisionist history here.  (on the Rooker side). I did actually receive a strike against me on Twins Daily here for my description on how easily his Paddack's health status would turn out.  I will not restate that here, but I will say it should have been very obvious!!!!
Paddack was a lost season injury waiting to happen, and he happened.  Rogers, that FIRST year was DOMINANT!!!  but we are talking about this year, so who cares about that. Rooker did finally establish himself this year, although coming back to earth a bit after hot start. But Paddack was lost fro 2022 and for 2023, so again  HORRID trade as this was totally foreseeable.
SO again a trade that may not get GMS fired, but should tighten the leash.
Jorge Lopez for prospects.  OK this one I cant really hammer the team on, it was a pretty good move at the time, and Lopez pitched fairly well last year, but where we stand now could be the worst of the lot.  Lopez has issues (on the field. I do not criticize players off the field). he is nto a major league pitcher. Yennier Cano, one fo the prospects given up is DOMINATING in Baltimore!!!  this alone makes it horrid in retrospect. Imagine Cano & Duran!!  Cade Povich seems like a decent prospect, a high K pitcher, most likely reliever in the bigs doing fairly well in Baltimore system. adn a couple others  (one to watch in the futur eis Juan Rojas currently 19 year old injured) but to me this is purely a Lopez/Cano deal, and as it sits now, we had HORRIBLE results.
 
 Michael Taylor for 2 prospects.  Thi sone is a good trade, adn look sbetter when seeing how we are not going to play Buxton in CF (or does this make it worse? would we play Buck in CF if we didnt have Taylor???)  overall a good trade so far.
 
So overall I have to say:
Michael Taylor = B+
Jorge Lopez = D possibyl F based on current situation
Paddack = D (if we gace up more I would have given a F-
Mahle = F-
Pablo Lopez = C- (you knew what it would look like but had to do it)
Overall trade grade for FO = D  maybe D+ due to Michael Taylor.
So that begs the question... why should we trust this FO when making Moves that NEED to happen??
Becasue overall any moves will be addition by subtraction.
Future Move #1:  DFA Kepler. Ok go ahead and see if you can get cash considerations for him, but he has ZERO trade value. replace him with Wallner.
Future Move #2 DFA/trade Gallo. so he has a DECENT OPS. but his K rate and .192 avg just cant play.
Future Move #3 Trade Sonny Gray...  wait WHAT???  yes you heard me. he is about the only thing of value to trade on this team. He will not be back next year as he will command more than the Twins will be willing to pay. plus he HATES the short leashes pitchers get here with the Twins so he will choose elsewhere for same/less money. if we QO offer him in teh offseason, he will go unsigned anyways, as he will be 34 and nobody will give him a multi year deal at $20M+ with a QO tag associated.  so lets trade him now get some value. as this team is currently constructed he is a luxury. a #1 starter on a bad team.  yes we may win this bad division, but only to get bumped in first round (possibly swept again) we can get these same results without him, so trade him and get value!!!
Future move #4 Buxton must play CF!!  Who cares if he stays healthy if he isnt producing? and we are losing with him in the lineup now so who cares ifhe gets injured and misses time by playing in OF.  AT LEAST 2 games a week he needs to be in CF. if it doesnt give the TEAM a spark, it could give the FANS a spark.
Future move #5 Royce Lewis needs to play EVERY DAY!!  (assuming he is healthy, and I am guessing they doing "load management" with his 2 knee surgeries, but again at least give FANS a spark.
 
I am leaving it with on field moves for now, but would not be opposed to losing hitting coach (high number of K's across the board speaks to team approach), trainer (we brought in a training guru but how many hammies have we had this year and other DL stints???) Head Coach (cannot pull starters after 75 pitches, cannot pinch hit a sub .200 hitter for your hottest hitter, cannot set a lineup against an "opener" only to pinch-hit for your starting DH after 2 innings.  and of course based on the trading scorecard GMs cannot trade away quality players for pitchers with known injury histories and expect history to not repeat itself.
 
 
WOW that went way longer than I anticipated!!!! LOL

The Twins' offense this spring has been frustrating and disappointing to this point in the season. Any team with the worst team batting average in MLB wouldn't be satisfied with their hitting, add in an inordinate number of strikeouts and puzzling underperformance from high-priced talent and it figures that players could be booed at home. As compared to when the 2022 season ended, this club is healthy, especially on the position player side. Max Kepler will be out for ten days, Royce Lewis will finish his rehab assignment at the end of May and everyone else that figured to contribute this year is available. 
The most recently available player is perhaps the most significant. Alex Kirilloff returned from the Injured List and rehab just over a week ago. The Twins and your's truly see a potential All-Star--someone who can both get on base and hit for power, who can lengthen the lineup and put runs on the board. Much of the reason for optimism is from his dominance in the minor leagues and brief flashes of a healthy AK mashing major league pitching. 
It's all dependent on a wrist. Kirilloff has had his last two seasons ended early because of wrist pain and subsequent surgery. The second surgery was major, some  have called it experimental, The Twins have brought AK on slowly, with no real setbacks. So far, so good. The results on the field have been excellent (only 22 plate appearances), Seven hits in sixteen at-bats, with six walks and three strikeouts. Two homers and a double. When the wrist began to impact Kirilloff in the last two years, he quit driving the ball and hit lots of weak grounders. So far, he's hit a high percentage of balls on the ground, but he's hitting the ball hard and the two homers yesterday show that he can drive the ball. 
What's reasonable for this year? AK should get something north of 400 plate appearances and if he can become a full-time fixture, he could get to 500. In 500 plate appearances, perhaps he could hit as many as 20 homers and I think the batting average could be above .300, which would make him a unicorn. I think if he walks at a 2:3 ratio to strike outs, it would show newfound selectivity. He has not chased out of the zone and has taken his walks so far. A .300 BA combined with a > 10% walk rate would be outstanding for a player in his first full year. 
I'm pulling the projected numbers out of the air. I am also showing my optimism for Kirilloff's ability. I think he can be an elite offensive player and a fine defender. Someone who can really get the offense rolling. I hope in a few months, that people will say this blog has aged well. 

After a long, harsh Minnesota winter, Spring Training offers and a glimpse of green grass and the hope of a successful Twins season. The Twins’ time in Florida is like any trip to the Sunshine State—some visitors leave with a golden tan, others depart with bad sunburn. As the team prepares to head north, here are my winners and losers from the Twins’ Spring Training. Let’s start with the guys who got burned.
Losers
1. Kenta Maeda
Spring Training stats should never weigh heavily in player evaluations, but when a veteran pitcher like Maeda returns from 19 months of Tommy John rehab, his performance will be scrutinized. Despite a solid outing today, Maeda’s spring has been mediocre. He has posted a 4.91 ERA in 14.2 innings, issuing 10 walks, striking out 14 batters, and showing inconsistent fastball velocity. These numbers aren’t awful, yet with Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Simeon Woods-Richardson all seeking a spot in the rotation, Maeda’s grasp of the fifth starter role grows looser. King Kenta will need to regain his pre-injury form quickly or risk being relegated to a diminished role.
2. Trevor Megill
Megill’s arm talent is undeniable. His fastball consistently touches 100 MPH and advanced metrics show that his breaking pitches are competent. Unfortunately, the on-field results never seem to match the underlying metrics (much like his bullpen mate Emilio Pagán). Megill entered the spring with a shot at a bullpen role with the Twins, then struggled to a 10.80 ERA and 2.10 WHIP before being demoted to Triple-A on March 19. Twins fans will probably see Megill again this season as he will be one of top relief options available in St. Paul, yet it’s fair to wonder how many second chances Megill will receive.
3. Gilberto Celestino
2023 is the most important season of Gilberto Celestino’s career. That is a strange statement considering Celestino played 122 games with the Twins last season and will likely spend most of 2023 in Triple-A. However, given Celestino’s limited minor league experience (only 75 career games above High-A), this season at Triple-A is critical for his maturation as a player. The thumb injury Celestino suffered early in camp required surgery, putting his development plan on hold while he is out until late April. Missing one month isn’t catastrophic, but finger injuries can linger. If Celestino rushes back or suffers a setback, his long-term development will pay the price.
Winners
1. Edouard Julien
Despite all the praise that top prospect Brooks Lee garnered in Fort Myers, Julien is undoubtedly the Twins prospect whose stock has risen the most this spring. Across seven games with the Twins and four games with Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic, Julien is hitting .394 (13 for 33) with five homeruns and six walks. His advanced approach at the plate looks MLB-ready, mixing patience with power. The Twins’ infield depth and questions about Julien’s defensive home created a roster crunch that resulted in Julien being optioned to Triple-A on March 14, but Julien’s performance this spring shows that he is ready to contribute at Target Field.
2. Kyle Farmer
Farmer’s solid Spring Training—an OPS of 1.052 and four homeruns—has flown under the radar as health questions about Alex Kiriloff, Jorge Polanco, and Jose Miranda have dominated Twins infield storylines. The 31-year-old Farmer is a six-year veteran, so a good month of March doesn’t change his projected upside, but he is a “winner” here because he will leave Fort Myers poised to parlay his hot bat into important at-bats for the Twins. His infield counterparts Polanco and Kirilloff are starting the season on the Injured List, meaning Farmer will play a critical role in the Twins’ early-season success. If Farmer keeps hitting, the Twins offense will get a massive boost and Farmer could become a valuable trade chip to fill an everyday role on another team.
3. The Twins Front Office
There are plenty of valid questions about the Twins’ offseason moves. Will Joey Gallo rebound from his terrible 2022 season? And did the team need another left-handed hitting outfielder? How will the offense replace the bat-to-ball skills of Luis Arraez? etc. Regardless, one thing is clear this spring: this Twins roster is deep. Yes, Jorge Polanco and Alex Kiriloff are starting the season on the IL, however the Twins have starting-caliber replacements in Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and Nick Gordon. Typically, exclusively DH-ing a Platinum Glove winner like Byron Buxton would wreck a team’s defense, but the Twins adding recent Gold Glove winners in Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo minimizes the defensive decline. And Bailey Ober, probably the odd man out of the Twins’ early-season starting rotation, has yet to allow a run this spring and continues to look like a fourth starter in a competent MLB rotation. Not to mention the prospect reinforcements waiting at Triple-A. All said, Spring Training has shown that this front office deserves credit for building the deepest Twins roster in recent memory.
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Thanks for reading! I'm interested to hear your thoughts and your winners/losers of the spring.

The Twins come into the year with a lot of guys that can play at the major league level, but with such a logjam at certain positions, it might be hard for some players to distance themselves. These are 5 guys that I think will have potentially huge roles to play if everything goes right for them. In no particular order...
1. Jorge Alcala 
This is a pretty common breakout pick and yet I also feel like Alcala is not talked about enough for whatever reason. Alcala, 27, was one of the pieces sent to the Twins in the Ryan Pressely trade back in 2018, Alcala was decent during the COVID season with a 2,63 ERA in 24 innings and a 3.92 ERA in nearly 60 innings in 2021 before a injury to his throwing shoulder sidelined him for the majority of last year. Outside of Duran, Thielbar and Jax, the twins have a lot of uncertainty in the bullpen that was fairly middle of the pack in the MLB last year. Alcala has touched 98 with his fastball this spring and I truly believe he might have a Duran type full breakout depending on his role. The Twins didn't do much this offseason to address the bullpen, so they clearly have a lot of belief in what they have already. I feel like Alcala has the tools already to etablish himself for a long time in the bulpen. 
 
2. Royce Lewis. 
We already saw a small sample size of Royce last year, which for the most part showed a ton of promise. In just 12 games, he batted .300 with a grand slam as his first big league homer, and also made some plays out in center. Unfortunately, he suffered another torn ACL that ended his year and will keep him out for at least half of this year. When he eventually goes come up though around the middle of the summer, Royce should provide a great amount of depth in the middle infield and potentially the outfield. Maybe even get reps at SS when Correa has an off day. I thought Royce was going to have a ROY like campaign, but alas that never happened. However the true test for Royce is probably 2024, where I really think he'll start to become an everyday starter for the Twins. 
 
3. Trevor Larnach
Trevor Larnach just had a 4-4 day against Boston in a spring training game today, falling a triple shy of the cycle. I've always liked Larnach, despite relatively mediocre stats in 130 games in two years. With Alex Kirloff starting the year most likely on the IL, it gives more of an opportunity for Larnach, who has a .951 OPS and 3 home runs this spring. With injuires to Polanco as well, it pretty much secured Larnach his spot on the opening day roster for the beginning of the year. If he continues to play like this at the beginning of the regular season, expect Larnach to lock down a lot of playing time, whether that's in a corner outfield spot or as a DH. 
 
4. Bailey Ober
I've always been a fan of Bailey, and this year I think he'll really get a chance to shine in the rotation as the 5th/ maybe even 6th starter. He's thrown 6 shutout innings this spring and has shown that he is at 100% before the year, especially after he struggled to stay healthy last year and only made 11 starts.  Still, teams struggled against Bailey when he was on the mound, with only a .227 average and only 4 home runs hit off of him in 56 innings. I'm not going to be too worried if we do suffer an injury in the rotation, because I genuinely believe Bailey has the tools to be a full-time guy in an MLB rotation. If he has to start at AAA, I'm excited to see how he improves before inevitably getting a call up at some point. 
 
5. Austin Martin 
This is a wildcard pick for me. Lots of infield prospects could have big breakouts in the majors or at the minor league level this year. I've always liked Austin, his start to last year was rough and the torn UCL didn't help either. His Arizona fall league performance was very promising, as a elite level contact hitter with great discipline, it shouldn't take long for him to rake at AA and get a fast call up to AAA. If he impresses in the minors this year, a 40 man spot might open up, making this year a big audition year for the 24 year old former top 5 draft pick. 

Kyle Farmer is a starting quality MLB SS will fill a bench role for the Twins this year. While he is valuable in that role, his biggest value might have just come in - as a trade chip to the Dodgers to replace Gavin Lux at SS after Lux tore his ACL yesterday.  The Dodgers other option is 34-year-old Miguel Rojas who they acquired from the Marlins before spring training. You have to think the Dodgers are looking for a starting caliber SS that's locked into a reserve role on another team, particularly one who can be a 1 or 2 year option while Lux recovers or they get a free agent next winter. Voilà! 32-year-old longtime starting SS Kyle Farmer seems to meet all of those criteria.
Interestingly enough, the Dodgers could also use a proven outfielder. They do have Mookie Betts in right, but are looking at an aging Chris Taylor and an unproven  Trayce Thompson to play center with a very unproven James Outman in left. It seems like a respected veteran like Max Kepler might be a good fit.

I think there's a real possibility that Kyle Farmer becomes a trade talking point between the Twins and the Dodgers. It would not surprise me if Kepler is also in the discussion. The Dodgers have a deep farm system particularly in pitching and catching. I do think there's a match. May be a Caleb Ferguson or Andre Jackson might be a good piece for Farmer. Add Kepler and maybe you can get Outman, Landon Knack, or Nick Mastrini or 1 of them plus someone a little farther down the list? Who knows, maybe there's a way to pry Ryan Pepiot away if you offer, Farmer, Kepler and maybe a solid AA guy.
I think there's a real opportunity here for the Twins to trade what are now somewhat redundant pieces - a 32-year-old starting caliber Shortstop who will be relegated to a reserve role for the one year he is with the team and a 30-year-old good fielding, roughly average hitting outfielder for whom there seemed to be adequate replacements. The Dodgers are a win now team that needs both those kinds of players. What you guys think?

There haven't been any exhibition games played yet, but all teams are in Spring Training and there aren't a bunch of free agents left to be signed. The Twins hope to bounce back from consecutive injury-scarred disappointing seasons and make the postseason. Here is my prediction for the 26-man roster that will play Opening Day in Kansas City on March 30th:
Starting pitchers (5): Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda. All five acquired by trade from other organizations. All but Ryan have injury concerns. First alternate starter figures is to Bailey Ober, with Louis Varland an Simeon Woods Richardson also waiting in the wings.
Bullpen (8): Jorge Alcala, Jhoan Duran, Ronny Henriquez, Griffin Jax, Jorge Lopez, Jovani Moran, Emilio Pagan, Caleb Thielbar.  Alcala missed almost all of 2022 and it remains to be seen if he will be ready to contribute. The choices here for the last two spots in the 'pen are Moran (mostly effective last year with the Twins, less so in AAA) and Henriquez, who had a cup of coffee with the Twins after compiling less than dominant numbers in St. Paul. The choice of Henriquez is a pick to provide multiple inning outings from a bullpen member. Moran looks like he could take a step forward and be a late-inning arm, but he's not established. The last two cut (and two most likely to make the club) in my prediction are Trevor Megill and Danny Coulombe. Pitchers with options in the 'pen will most likely be up and down several times--that would include Megill, Henriquez and Moran and perhaps Alcala. 
Catcher (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers. Really no competition here. The questions going forward are how will playing time be split up and if either Vazquez or Jeffers spends time as a DH. The Twins have three AAA catchers with major league experience--Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner and Chance Sisco.
Infield (6): Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Jorge Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano. There are injury questions around both Polanco and Kirilloff. If either one is placed on the Injured List, Nick Gordon and perhaps Joey Gallo might get some infield time. Barring injury, it would be huge upset for someone else to make the team at the expense of the six infielders listed.
Outfield (5): Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor. Gallo and Gordon might see some time in the infield. Buxton is coming off knee surgery and may be built up slowly this year. There has been much speculation about Kepler's future with the Twins, but he's still here. Trevor Larnach (also coming off an injury) will probably have the opportunity to play himself onto the team. If there is a disabling position player injury in Spring Training, I would think Larnach makes the club as a DH/corner outfielder. Also in the mix is Matt Wallner, who made his big league debut last year in September. 
There is a significant amount of change from last year. I am predicting that five players will make their Twins'  debut in Kansas City. There will be injuries and many more players will see time with the major league club. As many have commented, there is depth in the rotation and among the position players. There will be injuries and the depth will be tested at some points through the season. A lot of players will get a chance to show their skills before the season is over. 
There aren't many surprises listed in these predictions. Personally, I think that a nearly set roster is a good thing. I can't wait for the games to start and see what this group of players can do.

The Minnesota Twins in 2022 saw a lot of inconsistency in the pitching staff. First, pitching coach, Wes Johnson, left half-way through the season, then injuries started to expose the depth of the system. Now in 2023, the Twins have Mahle and Maeda back in the rotation, they added Pablo Lopez to the staff, and people like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have much more experience. The bullpen also looks promising with the return of Alcalà and the breakout of Duran and Jax last season. If this staff can stay healthy, they can easily be top 10 in the MLB, but how far will they go? 
 
Rotation
Joe Ryan
After being acquired in the Nelson Cruz trade from the Rays, Joe Ryan dazzled in AAA and impressed after his September call up. Ryan had a strong start to 2022 before getting COVID-19 and turning into average the rest of the season. If Ryan can keep up his early season success, he has the potential to be in the Cy Young debate. 
Goals: Have an ERA under 3.00 and throw 170 innings. Prove that you can be a front of the rotation starter.

Pablo Lopez
Lopez was called up in 2018 with the Miami Marlins and struggled until the 2020 season when he pitched 11 games and had a 3.61 ERA. In 2021, he threw 102.2 innings and had a 3.07 ERA in his breakout year. Though he has struggled with injury problems in the years prior, he had his healthiest year in 2022 and threw 180 innings. However, Lopez steadily regressed each month in 2022, which is a big concern. Now in 2023, Lopez has a lot to prove, since he is playing for a real contender and potentially competing for the #1 rotation spot. 
Goals: Throw another 180 innings (and stay healthy).  Get your changeup back to 2020-2021 form. Have an ERA under 3.60 and be that guy who goes deep into games regardless of success. Finally, stay consistent all of the way through 2023 and do not start to tail off. 
 
Bailey Ober 
Ober made his debut in 2021 and (I’d say) impressed if you consider the situation. The 6-11 RHP continued his solid run in 2022 before running into injury problems. Ober will likely slot in at the sixth starter and will get plenty of opportunities. If Ober can stay healthy, he can be a solid replacement to either Gray, Mahle, or Maeda in 2024.
Goals: Pitch 125 innings and keep an ERA under 4.00. Keep your BB% under 6% and FIP under 3.50.
 
Tyler Mahle
Mahle is a very interesting pitcher to look at statistically. Don’t be fooled by his career 4.35 ERA. Mahle was formerly with the Reds, who have one of the most hitter friendly ballparks. Mahle’s ERA in Great American Ballpark is 5.00 in nearly 300 innings. In over 300 innings on the road, his ERA 3.76. Unfortunately, last season did not go how the Twins planned, as he only made 4 starts with them before an injury shut him down the rest of the year. If Mahle can rebound from his injuries, his ERA will look much closer to 3.70 than the 4.35 mark we have seen previously.  
Goals: Throw 140 innings and finish with an ERA under 3.50. Keep your WHIP below 1.200. Maintain your fastball velocity all the way through the year.
 
Bullpen
Griffin Jax 
If you look at Griffin Jax’s Baseball Savant page, you’ll see a lot of red. After Jax officially switched to the bullpen this year, we saw his average fastball rise almost 4 (!) mph. On Jax’s Instagram this winter, we saw him reach 100 mph. We can only hope that he keeps making these jumps. Last year, Jax had a 3.36 ERA and boasted a SO/9 over 9. Jax has tons of upside and if he continues to improve, he can certainly be a top bullpen arm in the American League.
Goals: Try and make your fastball be more effective. Keep your ERA under 3.50 and your FIP under 3.20.

Jhoan Duran 
Duran had the best Twins reliever season since Joe Nathan in 2006. The best part is that Duran was a rookie, and he was doing this against the opposing teams best hitters. Duran was acquired in the Eduardo Escobar trade from Arizona and so far, Duran is proving that he is worth it. He'll be challenged this year, as he likely won't be the designated closer, but will pitch when the opposing team's hitters come up in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. He has the chance to be the best reliever in all of baseball in 2023.
Goals: Prove that the 2022 season wasn’t a fluke. Stay healthy and consistent.
 
Jorge Alcalà
Similarly to Jax, Alcalà’s Baseball Savant page is mostly red. He’s in the 96th percentile for fastball velocity. Fans waited for his return in 2022, but injury kept holding it off until it was too late. Alcalà pitched well in 2022, appearing in almost 60 innings and having an ERA of 3.92. All in all, his floor is very high, but he must stay healthy.
Goals: Stay healthy! Have an ERA under 4.00 and throw 55 innings. Earn a meaningful spot in the big league bullpen.
 
I may be overly-optimistic, but I think that the Twins pitching staff has the potential to be in the top third of the league. It's inevitable, injuries will happen, but they have depth, and if you manage them well, they'll be fine. Don't be surprised if the pitching staff goes under the radar and shocks the rest of the world this year.

Per Reports, the Twins have signed Carlos Correa to a 6 year, $200 million deal. The deal includes vesting options. 
 
502 plate appearances in year 6 - $25 million dollars for year 7. 
Total value can increase to $245 million if an 8th year happens. 
 
This is per Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and Jeff Passan of ESPN. 
 
Reminder - This is pending a physical. 
 
What do people think?

There has been plenty of off-season buzz surrounding Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez. The 26-year-old hurler struck out 174 batters over 180 innings in 2022 while possessing a solid 3.71 FIP. Since the Marlins have a deep and young starting pitching rotation, Lopez is both expendable for them and very valuable on the trade market. Is Lopez a realistic trade target for the Minnesota Twins?

It has been no secret that the Minnesota Twins have been looking to add to their rotation that experienced various health issues in 2022. They made a hard push for left-handed free agent Carlos Rodon but ultimately fell short, leaving them looking for other reliable options. The Twins have been linked to the Marlins in trade talks for the last couple of months, and one would assume Pablo Lopez’s name has likely been thrown around. Lopez, however, will not come cheap. Due to his age, he will turn 27 in March, productivity, and the fact that he is under team control for two more full seasons, Lopez’s value is very high. But what will it cost?

If the Twins want a realistic shot at landing Lopez, they will have to throw some tangible assets on the table. It is rumored that the Marlins aren’t looking for prospects in return for Lopez but rather bats they can plug into the lineup to help them out immediately. With that said, a trade to bring Lopez to Minnesota would likely cost the Twins Luis Arraez and maybe even a little more. If the Twins were willing to eat Jorge Soler’s contract, they could perhaps convince the Marlins to complete a deal without Arraez’s involvement. However, for a mid-market team, the Twins will probably be unwilling to add the $12M per-year contract to the payroll for a player that won’t offer much productivity.

This leaves the Twins with only one really realistic option, which would be to move Arraez, whose value is higher than it has ever been and may be as high as it will ever get. Does it make sense to trade him while his value is high? Arraez is a clear fan favorite and among the best pure hitters on the planet, but he also carries his share of flaws. Arraez has had a litany of knee issues in the past, he’s an awful defender anywhere besides first base, and provides next to no power at the plate, which is an approach that doesn’t seem to fit what the Twins have been trying to do in recent years. Maybe it’s time to strike while the iron is hot, put the chips in the middle of the table, and pull off a trade for a durable frontline starter.
 
What are your thoughts? Are you willing to pay this price for a frontline starter? Let me know, and as always, Go, Twins!

Sorry for the quick double post, but just read an article at MLBtraderumors.com   that Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes have both reported this.  OK, so lets assume this happens.. what is the trickle down?
#1 I say we go and also sign Nelson Cruz. pair them up!!! they both love Miranda and want to work with him!! :)
But for those already on the team what does it mean?
What does it mean for current future infield?
We just traded for Kyle Farmer, does this now mean we will look to flip him somewhere? What Kind of SS/IF needy teams remain? and what could we get? For Royce Lewis this means SS is blocked, so he is now an OF candidate when he returns. Brooks Lee, he would also have otherwise most likely made his MLB debut this September, what is HIS new home? Coudl either of them move to 3B? well Miranda is slated for 3B, Could Miranda stay at 1B? What does that do for Kirilloff and Arraez?  
What does it mean for veteran players?
Signing Correa would show we are looking to contend. Do you want to contend with unproven players in OF such as Larnach, Wallner, Kirillof, Austin Martin, even Royce lewis who is out for a but still? or do you want to roll with Kepler? If the Twins make a FININCIAL follow up move then Kepler is gone as his $8.5M may be too much for potential equal numbers from any above... but again POTENTIAL.  You also do not trade a controllable young sparkplug batting champ if you are looking to contend, but then again look at the trickle down moves a Correa signing does.  if the option would be to put Miranda at 1B and have either Farmer, or eventually Lee man 3B then where does Arraez get his ABs?  Are you going to keep him as DH?
What does this mean for prospects?
We were already in a position where our near MLB prospects and current position players were going to be coming to a crunch. The OF/1B/DH trio where we have the above mentioned Larnach, Wallner, Kiriloff, Austin Martin near ready, Royce Lewis when healthy is a go, Brooks Lee is a quick to the bigs player, not to mention players liek Edouard Julien who coudl be pushing for time. All while have roster spots fill by Kepler, Gallo, Polanco, Gordon, Now Farmer (not including my desire to sign Cruz as DH  lol). That is a lot of MLB ready/near MLB ready talent and you hate to let them rot on the vine by keeping them all.  SO who goes?  iF Correa signs at least 3, maybe 4 of these players will not be with the Twins come opening day. they will be traded for pitching.
 
If Correa was willing to move to 3rd in NY, would he be willing here? IF he is (and he will most likely at SOME point during career) then Id say the thing to do is...
Correa pays 3B start with Farmer until Lewis or Lee are ready. Miranda plays 1B. Polanco gets to stay at 2B. This makes Arraez expendable (sadly) and he will be one of the guys with the highest trade value so you move him.  Trade both Kiriloff and Kepler, and the OF is Buxton Gallo and Larnach, with Wallner as DH (unless we sign Cruz).  You actually call Miami and see if they are interested in a BIG trade where we get multiple of there available pitchers. Say Max Meyer, and Pablo Lopez for Arraez, Kepler and Kiriloff.
 
Anyways...
How exactly do you see teh Twins addressing the redundancies if Correa DOES sign??

For the Twins to get back into the playoffs in 2023, they will need a host of elements to go well. Not only will the Twins require significantly better health in 2023 — they will also need some players to make leaps in the new year. Whether it’s younger established players or prospects, the Twins need big improvements from some young players to be a successful team. I’ve put together a list of players I think can take those steps to be impact players in 2023.
Joe Ryan
Since the Twins acquired Joe Ryan in exchange for Nelson Cruz at the 2021 trade deadline, he has impressed, and at times, dominated. In 32 starts, he has pitched 173.2 innings with an ERA of 3.63 and a FIP of 3.90. He has had a 25.7% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate. These are all very good numbers for a guy coming off of his rookie year, and he would slot into just about any rotation in baseball. Ryan isn’t a typical breakout candidate due to his early success, but I believe at 26 years old, he has the ability to develop into more of a frontline starter and break out as a true star.  
In 2022, Ryan was much worse after a tough bout with Covid-19. Per Fangraphs, in starts before his long absence due to the virus, Ryan had a 2.25 ERA and a 3.25 FIP, but in starts after he came back, he had a 4.08 ERA and 4.30 FIP. Essentially, before his 3-week Covid absence, he was the frontline starter the Twins needed him to be, and after, he was a back-end of the rotation starter. Hopefully, once fully recovered in 2023, we can see Ryan lead the rotation and be a frontline starter.  
Beyond his mediocre numbers after his Covid-19 absence, Ryan’s performance against right-handed hitters in 2022 surprised me. I expected him to be a typical pitcher who performs better against same-sided batters. In the minors, Ryan had typical splits, where he was better against righties than lefties, but that was not the case in 2022. Against right-handed batters in 2022, Ryan threw fewer fastballs and more sliders. But his fastball was one of the best pitches in baseball in 2022 based on Baseball Savant’s run value metric, while his slider was well below average. For Ryan to become a frontline starter, he will need to improve his performance against right-handed batters, by either improving his slider or throwing fewer sliders against right-handed batters. If either of those strategies is effective and he can return to top physical shape, Ryan can be the Twins best starting pitcher (as the roster is currently constructed) and possibly become the frontline starter the Twins need in 2023.
Jovani Moran
Almost every number available shows that Jovani Moran is a really good relief pitcher who is ready to be an impact reliever for the Twins from Opening Day forward. From his 2.21 ERA and 1.78 FIP in 2022 for the Twins in 40.2 innings, to his 11.95 K/9, Twins fans should be excited for him to join the fold more in 2023. While his numbers holistically are awesome, he does walk a ton of batters. However, he limits home runs and strikes out enough hitters that the walks have rarely haunted him at any level, and his overall numbers should continue to be strong in 2023.
While Moran has been extremely stingy against both righties and lefties, as a 2-pitch pitcher who relies a ton on nasty changeup, he has reverse splits, meaning he is better against right-handed batters than lefties. Because of this, he would benefit if the Twins add an additional left-handed reliever, so if Caleb Thielbar is unavailable, he doesn’t have to be the guy to just come in against lefties. Instead, he should be used in other high leverage situations, whether it’s an 8th inning in a 1- run game, or if there are guys on second and third and one out. If the Twins are going to hunt any matchups for Moran, they should seek right-handed hitters in 2023. Facing primarily righties will further improve his numbers and make him a weapon in a bullpen that could be the best in years for the Twins.
               
Alex Kirilloff
Kirilloff has unfortunately been on these types of lists for 3 years. The Twins expected that in 2021, once they blatantly manipulated his service time, he could come in and be a star left fielder every day for years to come. That expectation was reasonable at the time. In 2018, he was the Twins Minor League Player of the Year, and his strong performances continued in 2019 during his first taste of the upper minors at AA. He had wrist problems flare up for the first time in 2019, but after a strong performance at the Twins alternate site in 2020, which they believed warranted a rare playoff Major League Baseball debut, it was time for the global top 20 prospect to be an impact player for the Twins.
That has not yet happened for Kirilloff as his wrist has bogged him down. Over the past two seasons, Twins fans at times saw him hit the ball hard and really be the hitter prospect analysts promised us, but far more often his wrist left him sidelined, or he at least performed at a subpar level. In 2021, his batted ball data indicated that he would start seeing a lot of hits and extra base hits with a .544 xSLG, but he didn’t play enough for those results to come, only playing 59 games for the Twins. In 2022, he was bad in the MLB, but at AAA he showed that a great hitter is in there, with a 1.106 OPS. There even was a stretch with the Twins from July 2nd to July 23rd when he posted a 157 wRC+, making him a 57% above average hitter. During that stretch, it seemed that he was finally coming along, especially when he went 6 for 13 with 2 home runs and 6 RBIs, in what seemed like a pivotal series against the White Sox. Soon after, he fell off a cliff and didn’t play another game in the majors for the Twins in 2022.
Wrists are tricky and sometimes hitters never get back to their best due to a wrist injury. That could be the unfortunate reality for Kirilloff. But if the new medical staff can help him navigate the wrist problem, he can be a huge bat in the middle of the lineup, hitting for extra bases and average, and could even be the best left-handed hitter in the Twins lineup.
Ryan Jeffers
When the Twins drafted Ryan Jeffers and signed him above slot value, he was seen as a player who would be a really good power hitter, but he likely would have to move off catcher due to his defense. Thus far, he has been a very solid defensive catcher, but he has not yet tapped into the bat that the Twins thought they were getting. In 2022, Jeffers was an above average pitch framer, who handled the staff well, and a well below average hitter, with a wRC+ of 87, making him 13% below average. If he can tap into more power, which prospect analysts believed he had, he can be a real asset for the Twins in 2023. If the Twins can get above average offensive production from catcher, that’s a huge advantage on the competition, when most catchers are their team’s worst hitters. We saw that when Mitch Garver had a monstrous season in 2019, and when the Twins had AJ Pierzynski and Joe Mauer in the 2000s.
The most obvious way for him to put up better offensive numbers is for him to play almost every game when the Twins are facing a left-handed pitcher. If that’s around 40-50 games, he’ll be in a great position to succeed, especially if he can even slightly improve against right-handed pitchers. While Christian Vázquez has been better against lefties than righties, he hasn’t been nearly as good over his career as Jeffers has been. Against lefties, Jeffers has crushed, with a wRC+ of 125, which is really good for anybody, but especially for a catcher. Hopefully, he can thrive getting more of those platoon matchups while continuing to be a very good defensive catcher. If he does, the Twins could have a big offensive advantage at catcher, making their lineup dangerous enough to really contend for a division title.

This is all of course predicated on Correa staying in New York. Also a couple of these moves are related to each other.
#1 Trading redundant players. Not breaking any news here. Kepler and even Arraez have both been mentioned as trade candidates. Especially after the Joey Gallo signing. Yes the Twins could very easily keep Kepler and go with an OF of Kepler, Buxton, Gallo. AND if they feel Kepler will have a strong season with the shift rules changes, then the best move is to keep him and potentially trade him for higher value at the deadline. If he has a strong 1st half then that $10M team option for next year greatly increases his trade value. I am not sure what the trade value is for either Kepler or Arraez, so I am not going to sit here and say.. Lets trade Kepler for Sandy Alcantara to improve our pitching This trade group is also not limited to Kepler, Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff could all also be slotted into this scenario.  We cannot play them all, and there may even be better overall fits out there instead of them (although I like Wallner and Larnach). And this brings me to move #2...
#2 Sign Domnic Smith. I still cannot believe he is unsigned. Dom is not a game changer, but he can play GG caliber defense at 1B. and has a very solid bat, with even "great bat" potential. He never got consistent ABs at his natural 1B position with the Mets. He could be signed at a very team friendly deal at this point. If there is decent trade value in Kirilloff, Kepler, any other LH or potential 1B on this squad then trading them and signing Dom is a great move, because not only would we secure Dom cheaply, but also get some return for players he will replace.
 
#3 Call Texas regarding Ezequiel Duran. This again is dependent on what else we do, especially if we trade Arraez. Yes we have Farmer as a potential SS/utility IF kind of guy, but Ezequiel Duran can play MORE positions, is younger/cheaper, and I think an overall superior bat. he is a natural 2B, but can play 3B & SS, and has gotten some time in the OF. with Seager, Simien, Jung on the IF he is blocked. Maybe this is a good swap with Kepler as Texas is still looking for an OF. and while I like Polanco at 2B he is $7.5M this year and $10.5 next. SO this also helps free up cash IF the Twins ever decide to step up and pay in the deep end of the FA pool.
 
AND... While I said these moves assume Correa stays with Mets. These moves make even MORE sense if something weird happens where Mets back out and the Twins can get Correa for something along the lines of the 10 years $285M they offered, although I would do something more like 8 for $250. (Higher AAV but less long-term risk). As these moves would clear $16M this year and $12-20M depending on options next year and replace with equal offensive output in Dom Smith & Duran).  Dom's position wouldn't be the same, but bat for bat Smith would be an upgrade over Kepler, and allow one of Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner to play the 3rd OF spot.
 

The team is in a tricky spot following the winter meetings. They allegedly remain in play for Carlos Correa, but their backup options are getting swallowed up and their 50M remains unspent. Even with Correa, this team will have some challenges going into 2023. Winning the Central can’t be the goal, especially with the state of the competition being as sorry as it is. To be a real force in the AL, the Twins need a few things to happen, Correa or not:
The Astros take a step back. The Astros are a juggernaut. It might seem like the Yankees are too, but ask any Yankees fan and they will admit they had no chance in the ALCS against Houston; they were totally outclassed. Since divisional play, the torch in the AL has passed from Cleveland to the Yankees to the Red Sox to the Astros (you could make the argument for the Royals in 2014-2015 if you’re generous). The Astros have built some more runway, as well, with 2023 looking incredibly bright. Alex Bregman still isn’t thirty, and all of Yordan Álvarez, Jeremy Peña and Kyle Tucker will play next year at 26 or younger. Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, José Urquidy and Luis Garcia are all 28 or younger. They play crisp and confident, and free agents know their numbers will improve in Houston; whether by altering a pitchers mix to perfection or getting to hit in front of Yordan. The only way the Astros aren’t favorites come October is if the aforementioned Yordan is hurt, they lose one of their starters and Ryan Pressley loses a tick of his stuff. Anything short of that is going to be near impossible to beat, regardless if the next four items on my list were to happen.
The starting pitching takes a step forward They can get Carlos Rodón and do that, or hope to get lucky by rolling out Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda off Tommy John, and Bailey Ober. Consecutively. If Joe Ryan had excellent command he could be a playoff caliber starter, but he doesn’t have excellent command. Yet? As much as I like Louie Varland, SWR and the prospect of Jordan Balazovic bouncing back, not even the most optimistic prospect evals have them starting game one or even two in a playoff series. I really hope Marco Raya has a nice year.
Get big RBI totals from two of Miranda, Kirilloff and Larnach This isn’t about RBIs being valuable as much as a high number of them would indicate a lot of involvement from this crop of young hitters. José Miranda has proven more durable than the two outfielders, but they wouldn’t surprise anyone if one of them hit .280 with twenty-two home runs next year. Depending on all three is folly, but getting two middle of the order hitters from the group lengthens the lineup and puts less pressure on Buxton, Polanco and Arraez.
Jhoan Durán stays healthy He hasn’t had a long track record of health and he is THE bullpen. The good news is that Durán got stronger as the year went on last year, but any young pitcher throwing 103 with a history of arm injuries can be a ticking time bomb.
Ryan Jeffers is an All-star  This may seem like a shocker but it wouldn’t take a lot for Jeffers to suddenly seem like a building block again. Maybe he gets a little hot streak and gets shielded from enough righties to be at .270/.320/450 at the break (Ends up at .255/.310/.410 or so). Jose Trevino started the All-star game in 2022 and ended up with a .671 OPS, for comparison- if the Twins are in contention in July, Jefers gets extra credit for “leading the staff.” The hitting lends legitimacy to that claim. Further, a homegrown catcher is the truest expression of how a team wants to run its on-field operations. They come up in the system learning a certain style of play that is background noise to the talents of the other positions. Jeffers is gritty, emotive and solid defensively, which, in theory, validates their organizational philosophy. But this ephemeral stuff works a lot better if the player in question can punish pitchers from the bottom of the lineup. In related news, there is a reason Cleveland isn’t interested in bringing Austin Hedges back. Long story short, if Jeffers hits to the point where the opposing pitcher has to think about how to attack him, that’s a major win for the Twins.
Like the two New York teams, the Twins making a big splash in free agency just gets them back to where they were (which maybe isn’t the worst thing). Signing Correa and leaving the Giants and Cubs to fight over the average-ish hitting Dansby Swanson would be a coup, but as we saw last year, it guarantees nothing.

With the deadline for finalizing 40 man roster in advance of the Rule 5,  There are some very cheap, low risk high reward type players out there.  These are right in teh Twins wheelhouse.  Gamble on the cheap and see if you hit the lottery.
So the first one isn't a FA or rule 5 but he is the type of player that COULD be.  1B/OF Dom Smiht of the Mets.  Dom is a GG caliber 1B.  This kid actually CAN hit. He has just never been given consistent ABs in a consistent position in the field being behind Pete Alonso on teh Mets depth chart.  Between 2019 & 2020 while playing in 139 games (close enough to a full season equivalent). he hit .299 with a .936 OPS. 31 doubles and 21 HR.  and struck out less than 25% of the time.  Now at 27 years old, he is no longer a "cornerstone" player for the Mets and could be had relatively cheaply via trade.  Why do we need him? I mean we have Kiriloff coming back healthy (hopefully), we have Miranda (possibly.. unless 3B opens up) Arraez was an AS 1B, but is he true 1B?   I would have no problem getting Smith even if it meant Kiriloff is "blocked".
The next 2 are both available ot be plucked from teh Angels.
 
First is Touki TOussaint.  Touki was DFA'd to make room on 40 man roster. CLAIM HIM!!!!  He has been flashy and dominant in short stretches in his career.  He is a perfect Twin. he can start or relieve. His control is his main issue, but he also has a big lively arm.   GO ahead an claim him. Low risk high reward.
 
FInally an even bigger stretch, is to make a claim via the Rule 5 draft.  Draft Jordyn Adams. an OF  from the Angels system. Normally I would say this type of move should ONLY be done by a non contending team.  Taking a flier on a player who is clearly not ready for the big leagues, but keep him as a bench player anyways. Who cares if you lose? you get a potential player put him on roster all year and then develop him the following years.  He does strike out a bit, but after striking out nearly 42% of the time last year he cut that rate down to just under 29% his .238 avg still leaves something ot be desired, but it was an improvement over his .217 the year before... AND he improved from .228 to .249 after the promotion to AA. Bu treally there is one reason he should be in play. His truly elite speed, a true 80 on a 10-80 scouting scale.  With upcoming rule changes shifting more of a focus back to a speed and hitting game vs pure power game, these are the kind of players you want to have. Claim him, let him take a bench role, and 4th/5th OF type slot. perfect pinch runner, and his defense is elite in the OF with his speed. (arm not as much), but again SPEED SPEED SPEED!!!!.  Let him be a back up, occasional starter and bat him 9th. He could be a Jarod Dyson type player. just an absolute pest  a pinch runner where you scream from the dugout "GO ON THE NEXT PITCH" and he can still swipe the bag. Do NOT underestimate the difference the bigger bases will make when it comes to the value of speedsters. Bunt hits will be at there highest total in decades, stolen bases will too.  And hey, you catch lightning in a bottle and he is a Akil Baddoo type.
 
These moves will cost next to nothing from a payroll perspective.  And these are exactly the kind of players you build a TEAM with. they wont be starters (Dom would), but they will contribute.  and seriously who do we have that would be any significantly better than them?  a Adams will cost you a Garlick, but if we are relying on Garlick our season is tanked anyways.
 
 

Some time after the All-Star break, I was pondering how the Twins could fit all of their quality major league position players on the active roster. A few weeks later, baseball immortals Mark Contreras and Caleb Hamilton were on the big club. Fast forward to a crucial five-game series in Cleveland and the Twins were starting Bailey Ober, Josh Winder (both coming off injuries) and having Louie Varland make his second major league start and Jake Cave and Gilberto Celestino were considered regular starters. The season unraveled quickly and now the Twins look likely to finish below .500 and in third place in the weak AL Central. How did it happen? I have several answers--there have been enduring issues all year exacerbated by a rash of injuries, most of them season-ending. 
Offense underperformed almost all year. Going back to the start of the season, after a rocky first couple of weeks, the Twins offense was sufficient to win a lot of game despite never scoring runs commensurate with their underlying numbers. Right now, the Twins are 18th in runs scored despite being 11th in OPS and 12th in homers. They have often been futile with runners in scoring position and they have been a terrible running bases as a team. I have seen many posters state that the team is terrible at fundamentals. I would submit that all teams draw their fans ire for not advancing runners and "beating the shift". Part of these problems is the way the Twins are built. They lack team speed and their is a lot of swing and miss in their collective game. With the changes made to limit homers, the Twins (IMHO) have suffered disproportionately. 
Pitching regressed after overperforming early. The Twins seized first place in late April and held on to the top spot for most of the season bolstered by a pitching staff that performed better than expected. Despite seemingly having at least one and usually two or more guys in their rotation that were locks to go no more than five innings, they won a lot of games and obvious weaknesses at the back end of the bullpen were not evident in the win-loss record. Things unraveled here in slow motion. The failure of anyone but Jhoan Duran in late innings cost games (particularly to Cleveland). The extra innings assigned to the bullpen showed the lack of depth that so many short starts demanded. Back to statistics--the Twins currently are right in the middle of total runs allowed stats. Underlying stats (WHIP, Opponents BA and OPS and BB and K numbers) come out slightly below the mean. I think team defense has been slightly better than average, which has helped keep runs allowed acceptable. 
Injuries (oh my!). The Twins lead the AL in total man-games on the Injured List. They went into the season with one player slated to miss time, so it isn't like there were a bunch of players already on the IL. Some of the injuries could be expected and put on the front office. The Twins obtained several pitchers with injury issues and this season have come up snake eyes with most of them missing significant time. 
There have been plenty of position player injuries as well. Regular players Ryan Jeffers, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler have all missed significant portions of the season. Carlos Correa also missed over 20 games with COVID and a badly bruised finger. We all know Buxton hasn't made it through a season without spending time on the IL. The other guys would figure to be healthier than they have this year. 
Dick Bremer characterized the Twins as developing a "slow leak" from June through August. The leak has been accelerated in the month of September and injuries are a factor in that. That said, even without the injuries, the Twins' flaws probably were too big to win the division. The club exhausted their depth and seeing Jermaine Palacios, Mark Contreras, Caleb Hamilton, Sandy Leon, Aaron Sanchez, and (second half) Devin Smeltzer "perform" in key situations just shows that the Twins have scraped bottom.
I think some roster turnover is necessary. Among the position players, they need more guys who make contact, are better base runners and who have more speed. They need more left-right balance in corner outfielders. The front office needs to adjust their focus and bring in more durable players. It should be noted that the position players they brought in (Urshela, Sanchez and Correa) have been basically healthy. The problem has been with the pitchers. 
I think there is too much talent to tear it down. If the club fails to compete next year, it is probably time to try something else, starting at the top. It won't be easy to win the Central next year, but there needs to be significant progress and better health.
 
 
 

There’s a great scene in the first season of Ted Lasso. Coach Lasso is sitting and mulling over end of season strategy with his assistant, Coach Beard. Lasso realizes that his approach with his players might not give the team the best shot at winning, but smiles and reassures Coach Beard that “winning ain’t how we measure success.”
Coach Beard turns red. He slams his fist on the table and hollers, “DAMN IT, IT IS!”
Winning matters. Which brings us, ironically enough, back to the Minnesota Twins. In the last 18 years of baseball, only two MLB teams have failed to win a postseason game. One of those teams, the Seattle Mariners, are a virtual lock to win a Wild Card spot. That may soon leave the Twins alone at the bottom of the postseason winning heap for this stretch. Last in success, out of all 30 major league teams.
“C’mon,” you’ll argue. “Stop blowing this out of proportion. Just look at those division pennants waving atop Target Field. One of them is even as recent as 2020. That’s success.” Sure, I know they’re there. I just can’t shake the feeling that they just don’t matter all that much. Sure, the Twins have had some success in a weak division - the children’s table of baseball - building up midseason leads and slipping ahead of marginal competition. But when the heat is on, when the top teams are in town, when the playoff bunting flies, the Twins aren’t much of a ballclub. They don’t win when it really counts, when it would generate excitement, when it would really bring the state together. They are a professional organization run and staffed by what seem to be genuinely decent and otherwise competent people. 
But they don’t win … and that matters.
In 1986, I fell head over heels for the Minnesota Twins. They were a bad ballclub, but I loved the game and I loved the team and I loved the Metrodome (yeah, I know). My dad took me to ten games or so that year, taking time from a very busy work schedule to indulge me. He even took me to Fan Appreciation Night, where Bert Blyleven apologized to the crowd for a disappointing season, adding that he saw the core of a talented club that could bring a World Series to Minnesota in 1987.
My father audibly groaned. “It’ll never happen,” he said. 
“What if it does,” I asked.
“Look, if the Twins go to the World Series next year, I’ll buy us both tickets. But it won’t happen, kid.”
You know the rest. Like magic, it did happen. And we were there. And my father, a serious man, hooted and cheered and waved like a kid. He loved the Twins more than I had realized, and he’d waited his life for this. When they won Game 7, he paraded me through the streets of Minneapolis on his shoulders. We hugged and high-fived strangers and police officers. We celebrated the success of our local team, a scrappy small market underdog. 
“Enjoy it” he told me. “Because it’ll never happen again.”
We did not buy tickets to the 1991 series. We watched all the drama from the comfort of home. But I grew up with an embarrassment of baseball riches. More than that, I have memories of my father - the stoic US Navy veteran and successful man of business - that are priceless. I got to see my father become a kid, just like me, bursting with joy over the game of baseball.
The years are wearing on him now, and it's hard to know how much time we have left together. We don’t talk Twins much anymore, my father and me. He never watches games and rarely reads the box scores. I tried to sit him down to watch the 2019 Twins take on the Marlins on TV. I hyped him up for the “Bomba Squad” and chose an opponent I was sure the Twins could beat. I wanted him back on the bandwagon with me. I thought a special season was coming together again.
Newly acquired Sam Dyson blew the lead. Buxton injured his shoulder. The Twins lost 5-4 in extras. But my dad didn’t see it end - he had gone to the garage to tinker with the lawn mower engine. Somehow, he knew that team wasn’t anything special. “Wake me up when they look like a winner again,” he told me.
So here we are, three years removed from the 2019 season which ended in another postseason whimper. The consolation at the time was that the Twins appeared on the cusp of a breakout - a potential string of AL Central dominance that might lead them deep into the playoffs. Instead, we’ve just witnessed an absolutely epic late-season collapse that will leave them in third place and likely below .500 for the second straight year. Worst to third in the AL Central, particularly after signing the #1 free agent in baseball in the offseason, hardly inspires much hope.
It’s not that these things don’t happen in baseball, or in all professional sports. It would be foolish to expect the Twins - a mid-market team - to win back-to-back championships every decade, or to be angered by occasional rough seasons or disappointing endings. It’s not so much that the Twins lose, but how they lose - and that they lose when it matters most and even when they seemingly have what they need to succeed - that is so hard to stomach. It’s a culture of losing that has essentially destroyed fan morale and widespread interest in the game here in Minnesota. 
Here’s what I’m trying to say: It’s not just that the Twins lose, it’s how losing no longer seems to be a problem for the organization. 
No one who represents the Twins really seems disappointed or upset by what's happened this season. There’s no visible sense of urgency or frustration. The club’s director of communication admonishes critics for any negativity and tells fans to “ride with us,” without acknowledging that the club’s trainwreck bullpen failures made getting back in the fandom car seem like a death wish. “We played our game, we played hard,” is Baldelli’s general mantra after bitter losses, as though professionals being paid hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars shouldn’t be expected to “play hard” as a basic condition of their employment. Instead of playoff wins, we’ve gotten endless strings of excuses: injuries, payroll limitations, called strikes that only seem to pinch our batters, and platitudes about being “almost there” and busy “reloading.”
What’s that old saying? Sound and fury, signifying nothing. Though scratch that - what I wouldn’t give for even a little well-placed fury from this club. They endlessly preach process, but seem to have no real interest in results.
Meanwhile, there is an entire generation of young people who have never once seen a Twins playoff victory. They’ve never seen their friends or family members turn giddy at the prospect of coming out on top, of beating the big boys of baseball in late autumn.They’ve never seen the way a playoff run can pull people together and shake up the routine of life. Winning inspires chatter and energy. It changes dull small talk about the weather into tales of late-inning heroics. The perfect throw to the plate to preserve a close lead. The seeing-eye single that brought in the tying run. The walk-off home run that electrifies a city.
Minnesota is a beautiful state. The Twin Cities represent two vibrant metropolitan centers within a short cross-river drive. Greater Minnesota features majestic beauty and kind-hearted communities. At times, we become two very different kinds of people living in the same state. We sometimes lose a common worldview and a common cause. On top of that, we’ve weathered a pandemic, civil unrest, extreme political division and economic instability. Any of the top professional teams in this state that actually commits to winning - and actually does win when it counts - will find that, beyond their own satisfaction, they’ve added a stitch or two to a sense of unity and pride in the state. 
Winning gives people relief and hope - even in small ways - and it gives them moments and stories with those they love. Yes, baseball is only a sport and maybe even a dying one, but winning is symbolic. Winning inspires.
I know I’m cranky. There will soon be any number of articles coming from people who are less cranky about how the Twins had some positive developments this year, and that the FO gave their trades and signings their best shot, and that some prospects took major steps forward, and that winning at the professional level isn’t the only thing that matters. I’m going to shake my head when I read those stories. I may even pound my fist on the table.
Because damn it, it is.
Winning is how you measure success in MLB. Winning is the only thing that matters at this level (and please don’t counter with “playing the game fairly is more important,” because that, too, is a basic professional expectation that should go without saying). And the Twins don’t win when it counts. And that matters. And anyone who does not make this the top priority for this team should no longer be involved with this organization. Find out why injuries keep derailing promising prospects. Find out why high-leverage situations at the plate and on the mound keep resulting in failure. Find out why the team looks like roadkill when the Yankees come to town. Find out why the team lacks fundamental skills on the bases and in the field. Focus less on mundane processes and more on getting situational results. Put the team through high-stress drills. Get the players ready for battle, rather than stocked with excuses when they fail.
Because Coach Beard is right. Winning matters. And it’s been far, far, far too long since the Twins have won anything when it counts.
 

The time to make changes in the starting rotation is coming with Mahle due off the IL in about a week. Mahle, Gray and Ryan are easy picks, everyone else is in play - pick two of Bundy, Archer, Aaron Sanchez, Smeltzer, Louie Varland, SWR for 5, or should we go to a 6 man rotation and pick 3? Who goes into the bullpen?
To me, first choice is obvious - Dylan Bundy,  The man has a 2.33 ERA in August and has kept the Twins in every game he's started this month. Rocco needs to try giving him a shot at going  more than 5 innings but he has been an above average 4/5 rotation guy for the last month. The second choice is less obvious but the guy it shouldn't be is pretty clear - Chris Archer. He had a 11.74 ERA in July and has a 5.24 ERA in August. While he was better earlier, he only pitched 19 innings last year and is coming off a potentially career ending injury. He is running out of gas. Either put him in the bullpen or shut him down. 
That leaves Smeltzer and Sanchez on the roster, and Louie Varland and SWR down in AAA. Smeltzer was exposed while in the rotation before - 1.50 ERA in May, 4.10 in June, 8.76 in July - and actually looks the part of a long reliever with a 1.80 ERA since coming back up. Varland is tempting but he just got to AAA. SWR still has control issues and also just got there, and there isn't anyone else on the Saints roster who looks like anything close to a MLB starter. Those two could come up on 9/1 and still be under the 45 days so retain their rookie status for 2023. Very tempting to try to catch lightning in a bottle but I just don't think either one is ready.  Here's your winner - Aaron Sanchez. Yes, he was bad with the Nats, but his 2 starts with the Twins so far have been a total of 9 innings, 4 runs. He would have gone longer against Houston if Rocco hadn't messed up. His pitches have life and I could see him being very good against weaker teams and holding his own against better ones. If he pitches well Sunday against the Giants I think he's the man for the #5 spot in the rotation. 
For the bullpen, two changes jump out at me. First, Brad Peacock or Jharel Cotton should come up and replace Megill. Megill has good stuff, but he's been figured out - 1.86 ERA in July, 6.55 in August. Peacock is experienced and can better give us back of the bullpen work. Cotton had a 2.83 ERA when sent down, albeit with a FIP over 5. He's risky, but we could use another multi inning/long man with the shorter starts and he can fill that role. Archer stays and hits the BP or goes on IL. I would also be ok with Moran coming up if Archer goes on the IL. Remember, we get 2 more spots on 9/1 and one of them can be a pitcher so we can add one for a 9 man bullpen.  I say add Peacock and Cotton, move Archer to the bullpen, option Megill and option/DFA Pagan. Moran can come up if there's an injury but remember, once he comes up he's hit his limit for the year and can't be sent back down without exposing him to waivers. 
That would give us a starting rotation as of 9/1 of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Sanchez. The Bullpen is Duran and Lopez as the late inning guys, Jax, Theilbar, Fullmer, Archer (or Moran) and Peacock for innings 6-8, and Smeltzer and Cotton as the multi inning/long men. Smeltzer and Archer are the emergency starters. That's our best pitching staff for September in my view.
What say ye?
 

This will be short. Hopefully it will be read by at least one person.
When I was a kid, my buddy and I had an uncountable number of wiffle ball games in his family yard. This greatly upset his mother as there were left and right-handed batters spots where we place home plate that would no longer grow grass. Lawn chairs would be set up for the infielders. Hitting a ball to them would be an out except if really laced and it bounced away as in real ball and would be designated an error or hit. Natural growth would provide boundaries, garages, power lines would provide walls or designate if it was a double or homer and a few other designated spots would be ground rules. We chose lineups from the Big Red Machine or the Boston Red Sox, or Twins. Whatever team we chose, we had to bat in the same left or right or switch as the real player. We had hours of fun and lively debates and did this for years. All for free. Competition was fierce.
I've been a Twins fan from a little tyke when they moved here. I have and will always love the team. Still get that joy when they win and suffer in the losses.
Watching the Twins in the last 3-4 years has been a perseverance exercise. We have one approach to games. Make good bat to ball contact. I think 2019 the Year of the Bomba set in place a bad habit. It was fun during this, but we lost in our small playoff appearance. We continue to swing either early and fail to take looks at pitches or really have great at bats in some games. What seems to be missing is risk. What seems to be missing is small ball. What seems to be missing is imagination or creativity in finding ways to win. We just seem to endure exactly the same game approach every game.
The above is only my opinion. No analytics. No last 10 game stuff. Just a fan reacting to years of watching this lovely game called baseball.
We are slipping right now and hopefully can rebound and put distance between the Guardians and White Sox. Without some flexibility and alterations in our approach we are not even going to make the playoffs. Even though we just won over the Rockies 6-0 with great pitching. Cleveland waits for us.
I believe that my buddy and I had more flexibility in our wiffle ball games than our Twins show today. We don't have Yogi, Dick Williams, Earl Weaver or Sparky Anderson in our dugout. They are long gone, and their style of leadership is as well.
Twins Geezer....out!
 
 

With trade season approaching, the Twins find themselves in a unique position that could allow them to get creative.
Max Kepler has been pretty damn good for the Twins this season. He's one of the best defensive right fielders in the game and has posted a .243 / .341 / .400 (116wRC+). That's good for a 1.2 fWAR through 55 games.
Another guy who's been pretty good is top prospect Alex Kirilloff. What he's doing at AAA right now is fairly incredible. He looks ready for the next level, right? that .370 / .477 / .661 (1.139) line in 34 games makes it seem like it.
I'm sure we all are aware that the pitching could use some upgrades. I don't need or want to throw random stats and convince you otherwise. I'll skip that part.
It's my belief that the Twins can utilize their excess of solid RF's for an upgrade to the staff. Let me lay out the grand plan
Padres
San Diego's pitching this season has been outstanding. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove have been pitching like Cy Young candidates. Sean Manaea has been the perfect middle of the rotation innings eater. Mackenzie Gore has ended up looking like he's going to be the ace everyone thought he would be prior to his 2021 from hell. Nick Martinez might be the best bargain signing from the offseason. That's not even factoring in Mike Cleavinger who's just getting back into the grove of starting after missing 2021 with Tommy John or former Cy Young winner Blake Snell.
Looking from afar as a Twins fan, I'm not sure most of us could comprehend what that much pitching feels like. 
Unfortunately for the Pads, the bats haven't been as great. As a team, they have a slash of .237 / .313 / .365 (96wRC+ .. ew). That ranks them in the bottom of 1/3 of the league from an offensive perspective. It gets even worse when you look at how the lineup handles righties, .234 / .306 / .353 (90wRC+)
Compound that with the recent news of Fernando Tatis still not able to swing a bat, GM Aj Preller has to be on the hunt for some reinforcements at the plate.
Right Field has been their biggest achilles heal this season as they've compiled a total WAR of -0.3 and are hitting a .225 / .277 / .287 (63wRC+) from the position.
Internally top prospect, Robert Hassell is most likely still 2 years away from contributing as he is still at A+.... 23 year old popup prospect Esteury Ruiz, who was just promoted to AAA, has been on an incredible run hitting .363 / .489 / .656 (1.145 OPS). While they could count on him to be the savior in RF, they may believe him to be the savior in CF, as Trent Grisham and his .226 / .315 / .383 (698 OPS) over the last 200 games isn't cutting it. Maybe it's CJ Abrams? though they tried that earlier this season and it only lasted 20 games.
For a team that looks like it is "all - in" and has pitching staff that owns a sub 3.00 ERA on the season, banking on an unproven prospect when you have a 229 million dollar payroll probably isn't the most ideal situation. 
Lets take a look at how its shaken out this season ... 

Not exactly a group that gives you much confidence going forward.
SO, enter Max Kepler
Kepler would provide the Padres relief in a few different ways. Obviously the immediate production in RF vs what they currently have is a massive upgrade, both offensively and defensively. Secondly, Max's career slash vs RHP .242 / .331 / .468 (.799 OPS) gives them a proven veteran that can come in day one and elevate the lineup as a whole where they are the weakest.
But in my opinion Max Kepler's greatest asset to the Padres comes in the form of his contract. As previously mentioned, if he was traded by August 2nd, he is essentially on what is a 2 year 13 million dollar contract with a club option for 10 million in 2024. 

ZiPS, FanGraphs player projection model, anticipates Kepler will be worth about 2.5 WAR over the course of the next 3 seasons. Now its somewhat volatile but a win in 2022 is worth roughly 8.5 million. (read more if you are curious).
Max Kepler on his 2 year 13 million dollar contract (w / the club option for 10 million ) is making wellllll below what he would receive in free agency and the Padres would be hard pressed to find a proven veteran, offensively and defensively, that is both a better roster fit and under team control at a reasonable cost. (pls dont comment Juan Soto).
That's not to say the Padres could go trade for a rental like Andrew Benintendi, but does that really solve any of Aj Preller's problems?
Cause he could have some serious ones ..
Following the 2022 season, San Diego is set to lose 3 vital pieces of the starting rotation to free agency.
- Joe Musgrove (29) - 1.50 era / 72 ip / 72 k's / 2.1 fWAR
- Sean Manaea (30) - 3.85 era / 73 ip / 76 k's / 1.1 fWAR
- Mike Clevinger (31) - 3.18 era / 17 ip / 20 k's / 0.3 fWAR
There's a world where if those 3 starters continue performing at this level for the rest of the season, each could command an AAV of 20 mil - 25 mil + in free agency. The following season, Yu Darvish is set to become a free agent. That leaves them essentially with Mackenzie Gore as the lone controllable starter past the 2023 season.
This also doesn't account for their closer, Taylor Rogers, becoming a free agent after this season. But it only gets murkier for the Pads... Baseball Reference projects them to have a payroll around 147 Million in 2023 and that's before arbitration, which looks to be an additional 30 - 40 million. 
While I'm not a capolgist, ill do my best to break this down. They sit at around 229 million right now. It appears they seem to be intent on not going over the 230 million dollar luxury tax for the second consecutive year, as they would be penalized to a greater extent for being a repeat offender. (hence the Twins paying Rogers 6.7 million dollar salary to keep them below that threshold)
Put simply, if the Padres have any ambition to upgrade offensively at the deadline, while staying under the luxury tax, AND try to recoup some of Musgrove / Manaea / Clevinger / Rogers, AND THEN potentially get a RF in FA, they almost certainly have to move money around in a trade at this coming trade deadline.
Here's my proposal to how these two teams can help each other yet again with a trade.
The Blake Snell experience in San Diego definitely hasn't gone according to plan, Dennis Lin of The Athletic has reported a few times now that they have been open to a trade. Since Snell's arrival in 2021 they have received a 4.33 ERA over 153.2 IP in 32 starts.
That's not exactly what Preller and co had in mind when they gave up 2 top 75 prospects (+ more) for the 29 year old lefty who is owed 12 million this year and 16 million in 2023. look, It's not absolutely terrible, but it's not great.
With that said, there is hope for Blake.

The underlying numbers show that he's definitely not cooked. The velo on his fastball hasn't diminished, he's sitting around a 96 mph avg. His xERA of 3.74 through 5 starts this year tells a different story than the 5.04 era on paper. It's not a super inspiring, slam dunk lock, and far from likely synch that he returns to his Cy Young form in 2018. But it's a glimmer of what might be the start of a turn around to be an at least slightly above average pitcher.
It also goes to stay Snell hasn't been a complete bust. From June 4th to Sept 7th of last season, Snell started 15 games and had a 3.44 ERA with 100k's across 81 IP.
Zips, Fangraphs projection model, believes he can produce a 2.0 fWAR next season. Again lets go back to using the logic a win is worth 8.5 million. Snell basically is owed a 2 year 24 million dollar contract if traded by August 2nd. You get Snell for 2 months the rest of this season (hopefully more with playoffs) and all of the 2023 season. So you hope that he can live up to the projected 2.0 FWAR and you'd be happy paying him 16 million next season.
Snell started 65 games from 2018 - 2020. In 337 IP he owned a 2.85 ERA and had a 11.5 SO/9.
While the past 2 years as haven't been good, It's my belief the risk on a 29 year old lefty with that kind of track record is worth the gamble for the Twins.
Now what would the entire deal look like? Max Kepler definitely has more value, as we dove into that earlier, so a 1 for 1 swap isn't going to cut it. 
By taking on Blake Snell, the Twins would be taking on what is basically 8 million the rest of the season and 16 million next season.
The Padres would be taking on Max Kepler's remaining 4 million this year, 8.5 million in 2023, and have the 10 million dollar option for 2024. It's my understanding that its AAV throughout the duration of the contract that counts against the the luxury tax, and club options are not counted until picked up. So the Padres would be really going from 16 million to 6 million next season, saving them 10 million against the tax.
The organization has been stacked with top prospects over the past few years, but through trades, the overall depth has taken a hit. Abrams and Hassell are off limits, just not happening. But, their #3 overall prospect per MLB pipeline is catching prospect Luis Campusano, who is most likely expendable at this point.
Campusano has been a consensus top 50 prospect for about 2 years now, but has seen little playing time with the major league club, playing in only 16 games over the last 3 years. I find it incredibly odd that he's been stashed at AAA for 2 seasons now and has a slash line of .303 / .388 / .486 (896 OPS) in 117 games. 
I've read numerous reports that the industry isn't quite as high on Campusano and his ability to stick at catcher long-term contrary to popular prospect ranking sites. When you look at the Padres and what they've gotten out of the position offensively the past few years, that's probably true. Plus they've stated a few times they would rather go with defense at the position (Nola + Alfaro).
With that said, the Twins have a good track record of developing catchers on the defensive side, just look at how Gary Sanchez has progressed. Combine that with how Jeffers has played the past few seasons and Sanchez being a free agent, a possible long term catching solution would be a great get.
He could help support the Twins in a few different ways this season. Obviously a few days mixed in playing catcher, DH is always an option, and he has gotten work at 1st base in the past.
But with the question mark about his ability to stick at catcher and playing first might be a challenge as he's only 5'10, I would want one more upside piece in the deal.
Michel Baez is who I would target. Only 26, the former top prospect underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021 and has been rehabbing in AA this season. Baez worked out of the bullpen in 2019, his lone season with the Padres. He was thought to be a staple in the bullpen after posting a 3.03 era in 29.2 IP with 28ks.
Baez has looked sharp this season in his rehab stints this year touting a 2.45 era in 18 IP with 23 k's. It feels like he's not going to be down in AA for much longer. This would be the perfect flier to help the Twins going forward the next few years.

The popular site -  https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ , has this deal about dead even between the Twins and Padres. While I believe Campusano is overvalued in their model based on the fact that it has him pegged as a sure fire catcher, I think it undervalues Snell slightly in terms of the potential he may still have, The Baez throw in seems to be perfectly valued for a guy coming off TJ and only has 23 MLB innings logged. Nothing more than a flier. 
At the end of the day, the Padres get an above average RF for the next 3 years at an extremely discounted rate and save 10 million on the books for the next 2 years. The Twins continue the movement in top prospects blossoming at the major league level, get another rotation piece with upside for the next 1.5 years, a great catching prospect, and a young controllable bullpen flier piece with proven success. 
Oh and Kirilloff comes in to hit .300 / .375 / .450 to replace Kepler.
Perfect world, right?
Thanks guys.

Being a hero means spending time in the abyss, mired down and challenged in every way. Royce Lewis has the potential for being a hero, but for now he’s spending a season in the abyss - in this case, staying patient in AAA. He’ll have to grow and add skills during this time, which is how heroes make their way back into the light. To stay a hero, he’ll need to transform into an even greater version of himself. If his brief time in the majors was any indication, he should have no problem doing that.
                Right now, Byron Buxton has emerged as a hero. The fate of a hero often depends on the whims of the universe, and so far Byron must not have angered them this year. Buxton is on the field more regularly, even with his limit of 100 games. He’s staying healthy. He’s adapted from his time in the abyss and matured as a player.
                In mythology, heroes often have supernatural help along the way. An elf or wizard adds their magic to the mix. A Greek god puts the wind into their ship’s sails. Baseball players seem to change through attrition, smoothed to perfection by water and time. The only player I can think of on the Twins’ team that had supernatural help was Chris Paddack. Richie the Rally Goat wasn’t enough, in the end, as he’s already had his second Tommy John’s surgery. The goat let us all down.
                As an aside, the goat let me down on a personal level. I bought my own rally goat to join in the fun. I made the mistake of showing it to my five-year-old daughter. She pushed the button for herself, listened to the thing bleat, and giggled. Then, you couldn’t get her to stop pushing it. She wanted to take it to bed with her. I imagined waking up in the middle of the night to that goat screeching at me. Anthony Hopkins asking me if the goats have stopped screaming yet. Too much. We put the goat on top of her dresser and we’re hoping she forgets about it.
                So, abandoned by his fate and fortune, Paddack heads back into the abyss. He is joined there by Alex Kirilloff and Miguel Sano. Fans seem less hopeful these three will rise and become heroes. Of course, before the season began, fans were less than hopeful about Royce Lewis. He had missed two crucial seasons (one due to COVID, one due to a torn ACL). Lewis grabbed hold of his opportunity. Now fans are almost disappointed All-Star caliber short stop Carlos Correa is coming back to replace him.
                Heroes take what they’re given and build themselves up. Unfortunately, if time in the abyss has crushed them from smooth stones into gritty sand, there may not be enough left to rebuild. Like the man says, there’s a last time for everything. Heroes either leave on top or fall down one more time than they get up. The fact that some achieve this kind of greatness, even for a brief while, is enough.
                The abyss waits. It is misunderstood; without its pressure and challenge heroes wouldn’t find the resistance to build strength. It takes away from many, but it gives to those gifted, resilient, and lucky. Buxton is here. Royce Lewis will return. Paddack, Sano, and Kirilloff must do the best they can with what they have.

We are less than two weeks away from the 2022 Major League Baseball regular season. The free agent frenzy was every bit the excitement we had hoped for following the lockout and teams are largely complete at this point. The American League Central Division had just one Postseason participant, but the hope would be for two with the field expanding to 12 teams.
The Chicago White Sox return as the division winners and will look to carry that crown for a second season. While there’s no juggernaut here, it should be expected that there’s no cellar dweller either.
Here’s how I see the division shaking out with PECOTA projections in parentheses.
Chicago White Sox 89-73 (91-71)
Chicago really didn’t do a whole lot this winter, but they also really didn’t need to. Having Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez for a full season will represent the greatest benefit they could gain from the offseason. Kendall Graveman makes an already good bullpen better, and Joe Kelly only enhances that. They should still have a very strong lineup, and the hope would be continued dominance from the rotation. There’s no doubt that they are the favorites here.
Minnesota Twins 85-77 (86-76)
If there’s a team that could go up or down more than almost any other in baseball it could be Minnesota. Byron Buxton is a superstar, and now he has a partner in Carlos Correa. How much resurgence could Gary Sanchez or Gio Ursehla find in their new home? Sonny Gray is a dependable arm, but from there it’s questionable veterans and untested rookies. If things go bad, it will likely be because the arms simply weren’t enough. This could be a very good team, a mediocre team, or a relatively bad team virtually all tied to what happens on the mound.
Detroit Tigers 77-85 (67-95)
Javier Baez’s deal with Detroit surprised many because of the assumed tie between Carlos Correa and A.J. Hinch. Baez has plenty of flaws but some of them are a bit overstated. He gives a winning presence to a team on the cusp. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson should be in the lineup soon, and Akil Baddoo turned out to be a bad man last year. I don’t know how well they’ll pitch, but acquiring Eduardo Rodriguez was a smart move.
Kansas City Royals 75-87 (70-92)
Prospects are the name of the game for the Royals. Bobby Witt Jr. looks like a superstar as does both M.J. Melendez and Nick Pratto. Salvador Perez put up insane numbers a season ago and will look to replicate that performance. Pitching is questionable here too, and I’m not sure Zack Greinke has much left in the tank. The bullpen is uninspiring, and there’s plenty of lineup holes. They’re getting better, but not there yet.
Cleveland Guardians 73-89 (77-85)
You don’t have to look much further than the newly named Guardians to find the Central’s most rudderless team. The farm system isn’t elite, but the Major League roster is also barren. Jose Ramirez is amazing, and a healthy Shane Bieber is lights out, but beyond that there’s very little to like here. A lot of post-hype prospects and guys that have ceilings they never got close to touching reside on this roster. Alongside their lack of spending this offseason, deciding not to blow it up was a weird path forward.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

BTV stands for Baseball Trade Values. It's a website that gives a trade value on every single ball player in the system, where you can put together a  fantasticized trade and when posted are given a chance to accept or deny those trades.  Although they're not perfect, they give you a good consenses of a player's worth in a trade by reading reports, talking to scouts and managers.
Like every real life trade, you can't just balance the value but you need to figure in the need, undetermined variables and how it effects the 40 man roster. That said I reject about 90% of the Twins proposed trades because they don't meet my criteria. Yet it's fun to research teams to see where their needs are and if they have anyone who'd fit our needs and what it would take put together a reasonable trade.
I know some don't like it but I think it's a nice tool to put together a "in the ballpark" trade suggestion.

Like many other baseball fans, I am very bored during this lockout. There are no free agent rumblings or really much of anything in the baseball world currently. I was doing some research on Kirilloff, and something got me thinking. Alex Kirilloff is a young, left-handed hitting first baseman, who projects to be the first baseman of the future for the Twins. The Twins seem to have a history with left-handed hitting first basemen. Some of those first basemen were named Kent Hrbek, Justin Morneau, and Joe Mauer. I am sure you can see where I am going with this, so I will just get into the article.

Kent Hrbek held down first base for 13 years for the Minnesota Twins. Kent got a glimpse of the big leagues in 1981. In 24 games, he hit .239 with a homer. He also posted an 85 OPS+ (100 is league average) which would be his last time being a below average hitter until his last season in 1994 when he posted a 99 OPS+. He became a full time starter in 1982 and retired at the end of the 1994 season. He was a great hitter with even better defense. Throughout his career he built up a 38.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Over his 14 year career he hit .282 with 293 home runs and 1086 RBI’s in 6192 at bats. He had a 128 OPS+ over his career, making him a well above average hitter. In comparison, Freddie Freeman, one of the best first baseman throughout the 2010’s, holds a career 138 OPS+. Kent was very consistent throughout his career, until the last 2 or 3 years where he dealt with injuries. The odd thing about Kent’s career is that he was an All-Star only one time, which was in his first full year in 1982. He didn’t even make an All-Star team when he was 2nd place for MVP in 1984. Part of that is because he played in the steroid era, when some of the best hitters of all time played, steroids or not. Many of the AL All-Star first baseman awards throughout Hrbek’s career went to Eddie Murray, Mark McGwire, and Frank Thomas. Although Kent Hrbek doesn’t have all of the accolades such as gold gloves and all stars to show off, he had a very good career and is one of the best players in Twins history.
When Hrbek retired in 1994 until Justin Morneau took over 1B full time in 2004, multiple names split time there. The most notable was Doug Mientkewicz. Also some dude named David Ortiz played there for a few years, I wonder how he turned out? Anyways, Morneau took over 1B in 2004 when Mientkewicz was traded to the Boston Red Sox. Morneau instantly became a fan favorite, hitting .271 with 19 home runs in his first year. He was a well above league average hitter, posting a 122 OPS+. He underwent a bit of a sophomore slump in 2005 before breaking out in a huge way the next year. In 2006 Morneau won the AL MVP by hitting .321 with 34 home runs and 130 RBI. He continued to mash over the next couple years, and signed a 6 year, $80 million extension before the 2008 season. Morneau played in 163 regular season games in 2008, and the contract seemed to be paying off. In 2010, Justin Morneau’s career changed in a huge way. On July 7, 2010 in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays, Justin Morneau slid into second base trying to break up a double play when he was struck in the head by Blue Jays infielder John McDonald. It was a play that had happened hundreds of times without anything bad happening, but this time it did. Morneau had a concussion and was out for the rest of the 2010 season. He was never the same player after that day. At the 2013 trade deadline the Twins traded Morneau to the Pirates for Alex Presley and Duke Welker. Morneau won the 2014 NL batting title with the Rockies, and played his last year with the White Sox 2016. He officially retired in January of 2018 after not playing in 2017 marking the end of a good career. Morneau posted 22.9 out of a 27 total career WAR in a Twins uniform. He had 1318 of his total 1603 hits with the Twins, and 221 of his 247 home runs with the twins. He also had 860 RBI’s in his career with the Twins, and was nearing 1000 for his whole career with 985 total RBI’s. Throughout his Twins 11 year tenure he posted a 121 OPS+. There is no doubt he had a good career but there will always be the thought of what could’ve been.
Joe Mauer was made the full time 1B of the Twins in 2014 after Justin Morneau had served that role for nearly a decade. Mauer had been bitten by the injury bug many times in his career, which ultimately was the reason the Twins had him move over to 1B in 2014. Joe Mauer was drafted 1st overall in 2001 by the Minnesota Twins. He was drafted as a catcher and had played that position for over a decade before making his move to first base. He was on track to become one of the best catchers of all time, winning 3 batting titles, an MVP in 2006, 5 Silver Sluggers and 3 Gold Gloves. The Twins liked what they saw enough to give Mauer an 8 year, $184 million extension, which is still by far the biggest deal in franchise history. During the 2013 season, Mauer suffered a concussion after being hit in the facemask by a foul tip.  It was determined early in the following offseason that the Twins would move their franchise cornerstone to first base to preserve his health. Like his good friend Morneau, he was never the same player, which could be partly due to increasing age as well. Mauer played 5 seasons at first base before calling it a career. In his final game, he suited back up into his old catcher's gear to catch a pitch and was given an emotional standing ovation. When somebody mentions the Minnesota Twins, Mauer is often a name that comes to mind. He had that kind of impact on the Twins as a former 1st overall pick and hometown hero. He is at the top tier with franchise greats such as Harmon Killebrew, Rod Carew and Kirby Puckett. Mauer will likely join the National Baseball Hall of Fame in the coming years, and rightfully so. He ended his career with 2123 hits (.306 average),143 home runs, 923 RBI’s, a 124 OPS+, and a 55.2 career WAR. He also ended with accomplishments such as 5 Silver Sluggers, 3 Gold Gloves, 3 batting titles, 6 All-Star Game appearances, and last but certainly not least, a 2006 AL MVP Award. It will be exciting to see how his Hall of Fame case goes about in the coming years.
All of that brings me to the point of this article, Alex Kirilloff. As you may have noticed, I went over 3 of the best first baseman in franchise history, which happens to be the position Kirilloff plays. Like the other 3, Kirilloff also bats left-handed (although that doesn’t matter much, just a coincidence). Kirilloff broke out in the minors in 2018, placing him high on many lists. He made his much awaited debut in 2020, although surprisingly in the postseason. He didn’t make the team out of spring training, but was up with the Twins not too long after. After his 59 game showing in the majors before his wrist injury, it looked like he would be the first baseman of the future. In the majors in 2021, he hit .251 with 8 home runs and 34 RBI’s with a 98 OPS+, which are not numbers that will wow you. However, he made plenty of hard contact, and looked like he belonged, but just had some back luck. I don't want to put massive expectations on him, but it certainly looks like he is poised to be our first baseman for the next decade. It should be fun to watch him for the next many years alongside the other top prospects we have in the system, but only time will tell. Thank you for reading, and Go Twins!!!
 

There are many things in Nick's article that are incorrect, and some that I agree with. This isn't meant to attack but to show a different viewpoint that he might not see.
 
"Our community is broken. Our country is broken."
We live in the greatest country on earth. Our community/country is not broken. You are stating your opinion as fact. A tragic death lead to a protest which lead to planned riots and anarchists coming to Mpls and many large cities throughout the nation. There are problems with bad police. There are problems with bad media that spreads divide. There are problems with bad plumbers, electricians, bankers, etc... that believe the divide and buy into the hate and anger. Go to most communities and you'll see blacks, whites, brown, you name the color, all get along.People that live in the same community or neighborhood will defend those they associate with regardless of color because of their shared interests or shared sense of community.
"To shy away from this conversation is to contribute to the widespread apathy and complacency that has brought us to this tragic state." "Unaware of what the mask meant."
Why does he need to get involved in the conversation? There isn't one person I've seen in social media whether they be on the left or right that has condoned the former cops horrible actions. He's been condemned in every corner. Believe it or not he doesn't have to post his every thought on social issues. He already got harassed by wearing a blue lives matter face mask. (To those people that shamed him, shame on you. Those officers protect your freedoms and risk their lives every day. A cop in Waseca is learning to walk again because he was shot by meth dealer/addict). There's nothing wrong with supporting the police because 99% of them are good and want to uphold the law. What does the mask mean? It means that police lives matter, too. By saying that police lives don't matter you create the divide that was mentioned earlier.
 
"Racism has no place in our world and I do not in any way support the actions that we all witnessed that led to George Floyd’s passing.”
Max denounced racism. He denounced the murder. He doesn't need to part of a demonstration to make a change. He can do that by backing his friends in his own private way. Because you don't see him out on the streets carrying a sign or screaming at the police doesn't make his statements any less important.
"Not into politics [peace sign]." This is the attitude that has gotten our society to this point: comfortable white people choosing to excuse themselves from the conversation, because it doesn't affect them personally."
Do you actually believe we have a more civil society with the combination of social media and politics? He doesn't need to be into politics...at least no publicly. He can have Walter Mondale buttons or Barry Goldwater signs in his garage for all we know. This murder is not political and murder never should be. "comfortable white" people? Seriously??? If a person isn't interested in politics it doesn't make them a comfortable white person. Would you say the same about someone that's black and not involved in political discourse? You are making a group think statement that everyone must think and act as you.
 
"Kepler's comments come as a slap in the face to a grieving and enraged community where he's supposed to be a leader."
I've spent a lot of time on social media lately and I haven't seen one person clamoring to hear Max Keplers take on the protests/riots. As a matter of fact I haven't seen anyone wondering what any of the MN Twins, Vikings, or any other professional organization is saying. It's not a slap in the face to the community at all. The community doesn't need Max Kepler to say anything. Who appointed him as a leader and what is he a leader of? Most people that I know don't look to baseball players as leaders. They look to him to make plays on the field.
I personally don't care what Chris Cuomo says. I had to get that in only because your news source quote pegs you as left of center. If you had quoted people on both sides of the aisle it adds credibility. That's more of a journalism critique than anything else.
"precisely what perpetuates a lack of change that is destroying us."
Kepler on the sidelines isn't the problem. What's the underlying problem? Is it the people in the city or the people running it. If it's the people in the city then the problem was there long before Max got here. If it's the people running the city you have to look at who has been running the city for decades. The problem isn't new so you're going to have to go back. If people won't vote for a change then the problem will continue.
 
"Kepler and the Twins aren't playing baseball due to a global health crisis that has sadly been framed as "political" by some".
It is sad that a health crisis is political. 80% of the deaths in MN have been in Long term care facilities. A new study out of Max's home country shows that a majority of the people would have eventually died this year regardless. When all the info doesn't come out and people are left in the dark it's going to become political.
"our site's audience is predominately white, and relatively affluent. We are the voices needed most in this fight."
Soft bigotry at it's finest. Our voices our no more important than the poorest minority in the poorest area of Minneapolis/St Paul. I can't speak to their plight, any injustice (real or perceived), or relate to what it's like to get pulled over because of color. I can only advocate for justice for every human being that walks the earth.
 
"a meaningless platitude, copping out with a "not into politics" comment is not an option...."We need to confront these issues seriously,"
It's meaningless to you if you view it that way. To me it means he wants peace and you see, not into politics is an option. I believe what bothers you is he's not into your politics and you want him to be. Politics is a touchy issue. The blue lives matter mask proved it. He plays for 100% of Minnesotans, not just the ones who want him to be politically active.
Everyone - at least caring, logical people, want injustice to end. What really needs to happen right now is justice for George Floyd.