"Although Mahle doesn’t look great on the surface, he is much better than these numbers indicate.
....Target Field is the second best park to pitch in, so Mahle will go from being at a heavy disadvantage to a severe advantage simply by changing home stadiums.....
.....Mahle is one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league......
.....Among Twins starters, Mahle has the lowest expected ERA and the lowest expected batting average against (.206).'
We will see. Personally, I would rather have a lucky player than consistently unlucky. I alway cringe when you have to sort through the stats available to try to make a case for why someone that is "expected" to be better, but isn't to date, and hasn't been. I would rather see a low ERA and a higher expected ERA, because what actually happens/happened is way more important and real than what one would expect or hope for. I would rather read about what was great and not expected than one is supposedly much better than he actually performed.
And if Target Field is the second best park to pitch in, that means that our pitching has been even worse than we think, and our pitchers are worse than we think, because with Target Field, it is expected it should have been much better with the advantage.