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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    Suzuki will continue to be the starter for the same reasons Pelfrey remains in the rotation.
  2. Oxtung
    This whole thing will probably play itself out in the next 3-4 weeks before Buxton is ready to come off the DL. Either Hicks continues to make strides at the plate (any power against righties is what's missing right now) and then Buxton goes back down. Hicks is still OPSing .650; then Buxton stays up with Hicks moving to 4th OF role. Hicks crashes and Buxton is up with Hicks being sent down.
  3. Oxtung
    Span doesn't solve the corner outfield problem of the last few years and the fact that Revere was traded the following week has no bearing on the span-Meyer deal. Just like whom the Twins drafted in 2013 doesn't affect this 2012 trade. You can't use future events to justify past actions. Unless you think that the Twins are omnipotent. So in the end it comes down to, do you think a bunch of arms in the rookie leagues and one projected middle of the rotation pitcher at AAA are enough. Personally I don't. YMMV of course.
  4. Oxtung
    There is no set routine in the majors because the schedule isn't equally distributed with off days. Milone has pitched on 5 days rest just as often as 4 this season and Pelfrey more often on 5 than 4. The same principle holds in prior seasons too.
  5. Oxtung
    One should never use absolutes. Shame on me. Gibson was more highly thought of, though he was not considered a top of the rotation starter even at that point. However he had also thrown just 29 innings that season because of TJ surgery. He was absolutely a huge question mark. Regardless, do you think 1 pitcher with upside was enough in the system? I stand by my point. The twins were terrible and didn't have enough pitching talent. They needed an influx and CF was the place with excess talent available for a trade.
  6. Oxtung
    Are you trying to say because the Twins had a handful of lottery tickets in the rookie leagues, some just drafted relievers going to be turned starters and a AAA pitcher coming off of tommy john surgery they were so talented they didn't need upside pitchers that would slot into AA immediately? If that is your point than I guess I disagree. The fact that some of those pitchers might turn out is great but at that point in time every single one was a huge question mark.
  7. Oxtung
    Judging a trade in hindsight without taking in to account the circumstances at the time has little value. At the time of the Meyerr for Span trade the Twins didn't have a single pitcher that projected higher than a backend starter. On the other hand they had a system with Hicks a first round pick coming off a good year, they had Revere already up with the Twins as well as joe benson in the minor leagues. They traded from an area of spparent strength trying to fill the hardest position to find. Let's not forget that the Twins were mired in back to back 90 loss seasons. Making a trade was the right move at the time. I'm not going to rip the FO for choosing a the wrong guy since he was highly touted by all prospect hounds. Sometimes prospects don't turn out and that sucks, but it doesn't mean the decisions that lead to the trade were wrong. The Capps Ramos trade on the other hand.......
  8. Oxtung
    Since Graham has already thrown 31 innings with the Twins it would be hard for Meyer to catch up barring an injury.
  9. Oxtung
    Clearly yesterday Pelfrey's splitter was devastating but most MLB pitchers go through stretches of dominance at some point during the season. One game does not a season make. If the Twins are seriously thinking of resigning Pelf at this point I would be pretty disappointed. There's a month and a half left before the deadline. Let's wait and see how things go in his next 8 starts. If he's striking out a batter per inning at that point then maybe you start a conversation with his agent.
  10. Oxtung
    I agree with nicksaviking. I'll take the pitcher that throws 150 innings with a 3.50 ERA over a pitcher with a 4 ERA but gives you 200 innings. In order for the runs to equal out your relievers would have to have an ERA of 5.40 in those 50 innings. As nick said given today's bullpen realities and the ability to shuttle with AAA the pen should be able to absorb those innings.
  11. Oxtung
    I will take Harrison for 200 Trebek. That said Walker isn't as bad (or as good) as some here are making him out to be. While his K-rate is sky high right now it has actually dropped 3% in the last 2 weeks or so. Also last year he K'd 28% of the time which the Twins could live with at the major league level. I'm actually more worried about his lack of walks. He has to get pitched around some with that kind of power, doesn't he? It boggles the mind how little he walks.
  12. Oxtung
    It's not good etiquette to troll your own website!!!
  13. Oxtung
    A key premise of that article, IIRC (it won't load for me currently), was that he gets both ground balls and infield flies while limiting line drives. This year his line drives are up 5%, his infield flies are down 6% and his ground ball is down 3%. In other words his batted ball profile isn't the same as when that was written. in addition his left on base rate, his BABIP, and his HR/FB rate all fall within the top quarter of pitchers over the last 5 seasons and his walk rate is up significantly. He has a 1.4 WHIP currently. I think it's fairly safe to say he is pretty lucky to have a sub-3 ErA currently. As JW pointed out above though he might not be a 5 ERA either.
  14. Oxtung
    Howard struck out 26% of the time 2006 and walked 15%. Walker is striking out 40% and walking 6% that is a huge difference. If Walker can increase his walk rate close to 15% that changes the equation dramatically. Unfortunately he's showing no ability to do that. His highest walk rate in the minors is 8%. The fact that Walker has played on good teams means nothing about how good of a month he has had.
  15. Oxtung
    When ABWIII connects clearly he is spanking the ball but I can't look past the fact that he is striking out in ~40% of his PA's. It's not like his walk rate is particularly good either to off set his lack of contact. I would have a hard time putting him on my list of top hitters.
  16. Oxtung
    He has taken all of 30 AB's against RH pitching this year. That is hardly a sample large enough to claim his issues are solved.
  17. Oxtung
    ABW III is striking out in 41% of his PA's so far this year. He has 1 walk. That is terrible no matter the sample size. His BA, OBP and OPS are all being propped up by a BABIP of .395. The fact that he has been incredibly lucky does not change the fact that while he might swing hard, he isn't going to be a major league player (barring some major change in approach). On the other hand Harrison has always had a very good strike zone judgement. He hits for enough power to potentially play a corner position. Kepler is already on the 40 man so he of course is going to get preferential treatment whether deserved or not.
  18. Oxtung
    Any word on Pat Dean? What's changed that he is all of a sudden dominating? Or is this just a SSS blip?
  19. Oxtung
    With Kepler moving up what other roster moves will we see? Does he play 1st with DJ Hicks moving to AAA? Or does he play OF with Harrison getting pushed to AAA? Do Harrison, Kepler and ABWIII all split time in the corners? Given ABWIII strikeout problems he would seem to be the odd man out at this point. Not that he wouldn't still get playing time but he would seem to be in line for less.
  20. Oxtung
    Oh I agree with you, I was just trying to point out that the original question didn't make much sense. I think a balance is the way to go as well.
  21. Oxtung
    How could you field those 30 guys? Even if you could for a season how could you do it year after year. You might know more about a kid after they spend a year in your organization but not that much more than at 16. Their body is still growing and it will take several years to determine what what the Twins have. There just aren't enough spots available for that many commitments.
  22. Oxtung
    Oh God….. I bought tickets for the home opener. Oh God what have I done. Oh the humanity! Please don't inflict Milone or Pelfrey on us for the opener. I'm telling you right now, if one of those two start on Monday I'm spending the entire game in one of the bars getting drunk and yelling about how terrible the Twins are until they toss me out on my ass.
  23. Oxtung
    To me the most interesting question mark is Alex Wimmers. He had >10K/9 last year as a reliever. He gave up a few to many hits and walks but seemed to settle down in the second half after his promotion to AA. This will be his second year after TJ surgery so I'm excited to see how it goes. While he is old for the league age-wise he only has 140 IP below AA.
  24. Oxtung
    You know it's spring training when we get posts saying people expect the Twins to [insert positive comment here].
  25. Oxtung
    Looking at the relievers that could be ahead of Reed and Burdi: May, Meyer, Melotakis, Wimmers, Achter, Oliveros, Hamburger, Pryor, Tonkin, Pressly, Thielbar, Thompson. If May or Meyer get moved to the bullpen that makes sense for them to be ahead of the two 2014 draft picks. Everything we heard about Melotakis last year was dominating stuff but he just had TJ surgery so that will set him back. Everybody forgets about Wimmers but he had a really good season relieving last year in 49 IP he struck out 63 and walked 13. After that I would be pretty disappointed if any of the other guys held Burdi or Reed back. One wild card is Zach Jones, depends on how he comes back from his surgery.
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