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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    Several of you have no made statements similar to "His value will never be higher than it is now." Is that really true? There are scenarios where that isn't. For the sake of argument let's say the Twins keep him and he puts up an OPS of .900 next season, surely his value will have risen after two seasons of superstar level work, right? Perhaps that isn't the most likely outcome but it also isn't unbelievable either. So my question to the brilliant minds here at TD, what kind of numbers would Dozier have to put up next year to actually increase his value at the trade deadline? By next offseason?
  2. Oxtung
    2016 stats: Mean: 92.1 mph Median: 91.7 mph
  3. Oxtung
    You call up the Twins and during the discussion Falvey let's slip the Yankees are interested too. You pick up the newspaper and Cashman is flat denying that they have even talked to the Twins. Who do you believe? They both have a vested interest in their story being the "true" story. I can even image a scenario where Doziers agent himself leaked the "4 teams interested" to draw national attention to his client because Brian wants to be traded to a contender. I don't think anything about this time of year is clear cut. To support this there was an interview posted here earlier this week where Gammons and Rosenthal both said Agents and teams try to use them all the time to spread disinformation. That their job mostly is to sift out the truth from the lies.
  4. Oxtung
    Mike the reason the even got to 84 was because of their bullpen and that has now been dismantled. Their starting pitching outside of Tanaka is in shambles and last year their best hitter was Gregorious. I think some of their veterans will bounce back but enough to recover the wins they traded away with Miller and Chapman plus 6 wins to get them to 90? We're talking about an improvement of 10-12 wins just to get the wildcard.
  5. Oxtung
    It's entirely possible, perhaps even probable, that the Yankees aren't in on Dozier given their current duo of MI. However, if I was the Yankees and I knew another team was involved with deep farm system like the Dodgers I'd be denying I was in the market too. All that admitting interest does is create a potential bidding war. They're better off denying it and then trying to sneak in the back door with an offer.
  6. Oxtung
    Maybe the Yankees aren't in play but it did get me thinking a bit. While a young potential Ace starting pitcher is everyone's dream here, there are other possibilities to improving the pitching situation. I'll type this up about the Yankees but it could apply to other teams as well. The Twins could look to trade Dozier for a good all around SS (in this case like Torres/Mateo). In a year or two if/when Gordon is ready you play some combination of Torres, Polanco and Gordon at 2nd/3rd/SS. Move Sano to DH or 1B. Combined with Buxton in CF and Kepler in one of the corners that is one hell of a defense. There is speed and athleticism everywhere across the board. It will also be a pretty cheap lineup freeing up money for another masher at 1B or a corner OF spot. Or alternatively the Twins could go real big on a pitcher. Combine all of that with a good framing catcher and I think there would be a real significant change in the stats of the pitchers. Will that turn a Gibson into an ace? No. Could that defense/catcher drop his ERA to consistently sub 4? Perhaps.
  7. Oxtung
    I fail to see how your sarcasm helps move this discussion forward Brock. Your opinion of what the future will entail has no more validity than mine or any other on this forum. To pretend that you and only you have a justifiable vision of the future is insulting.
  8. Oxtung
    I don't understand the enthusiasm being shown here. The PoBO will still be hired by Pohlad and St. Peter and therefore will follow in the typical Twins baseball mold regardless if hired from within or without.
  9. Oxtung
    Been there done that; Santana, Nolasco, Hughes, Santiago, Milone, Pelfrey, Correia... I'll take the new approach please.
  10. Oxtung
    So the final tally appears to be Departures Nolasco Nunez Abad Meyer Arrivals Santiago Busenitz Pat Light Mejia Pending Suzuki Kinzler Santana So we upgraded the rotation for next season with Santiago, replaced Meyer with Light, got a back of the rotation starter for the long haul and a flier with Busenitz in the bullpen. The only thing we gave up in return that had long term implications is Meyer and that was debatable. I'd say that was a pretty good deadline. Nothing earth shattering but I think the team is improved both in the short and long terms.
  11. Oxtung
    It's also 6 years of Meyer vs 1 year of Santiago (unless the Twins sign him to an extension but that seems unwise). They could always trade him this winter or next trade deadline I guess, in which case it becomes 6 years of Meyer vs whatever they get in return.
  12. Oxtung
    I really enjoyed this episode. The passion on both sides was great. I will say that while I disagree with Johns take he was the more mature in how he handled the discussion. I think Aaron misunderstood some of Johns point though. John if you care to respond to YLTs question above I'd be interested in your response.
  13. Oxtung
    You're definitely right that Garver or Turner could turn out to be starting caliber players yet, however up to this point it doesn't appear to be so. Due to all the injury concerns and watching Mauer be severely affected by catching I've come around to a defense first catcher that is a great pitch framer but doesn't have a big bat. They tend not to be as expensive and the Twins could spend the balance to improve a position less likely to be injured and miss time.
  14. Oxtung
    It's interesting that catcher was once a strong point of the minor league system. Pierzynski, Mauer and Ramos are all starting caliber players but there were also a few backups like Butera. Now however it's so bleak. Just interesting how quickly things can change.
  15. Oxtung
    I remember several years ago many people were criticizing Tubby Smith for keeping Royce White on the basketball team (but suspending him) after White had committed infractions. Tubby replied there was nothing he could do to help Royce if he was kicked off the team. On the other hand if Royce was suspended Tubby had leverage and authority to help make sure that White got the help that he needed. Now in the end it didn't work out but I've always really admired that Tubby took a big picture view and tried to help a young man out that desperately needed it instead of taking the easy way out. This certainly isn't an apples to apples comparison but I think the premise is similar. I hope the Twins show some leadership in helping this man get the help he needs (assuming Allen is ready to receive it). We all fall down at times and this is an opportunity to both help Allen on a personal level but also to show the community that there are things more important than baseball.
  16. Oxtung
    You seem to be doubling down here. I'm not saying your idea doesn't have merit. You could very possibly be right that the Twins did rush good, but not great prospects like Arcia, Santana, Rosario, etc.... My point is the list you chose does not represent the reality of where the Twins currently are at, nor does it represent the quality of the prospect the Twins have (excluding Buxton and Sano). In addition no solid conclusions can be drawn by looking at just 15 players (especially when those are the best 15 players in the league). So again, I'm not criticizing your idea. I just think we need more data from teams that are in the position the Twins currently find themselves in. In an effort to find more of that data I gathered another 10ish players from the Astros and Cubs as examples. In an effort to put us back on track here I think we need to differentiate by prospect level. Great prospects like Sano, Buxton, Lindor, Correia, Mauer, Harper, Hayward, etc... are treated differently than the Arcia, Rosario, etc... which in turn are treated differently than the marginal guys like Vargas, Santana etc... At least that is my contention.
  17. Oxtung
    This is a terrible article.
  18. Oxtung
    I don't think this list tells us much. You are comparing DeLoreans and Lamborghinis here. Yeah they're both "sports cars" but Lamborghini had been in business for 20 years before DeLorean even came along. On top of that the Countach went 0-60 in 4 seconds while the DeLorean took more than 8 seconds. Similarly the Twins are in a very different part of their win cycle than most of the teams above. Does anyone think Santana, Vargas or Arcia would have been called up from AA if this was 2010, the Twins were in contention and they had Span, Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome and JJ Hardy playing? Also, half your list are overall top 20 prospects while the Twins only have 3 players that were concensus top 100 players. Perhaps you're right the Twins did rush some of their prospects, though Buxton and Sano were brought up right on time compared to your list, but you'd have to compare them to other teams at a similar point in their rebuild cycles and to similar level prospects. Until then this tells us next to nothing. If anyone is interested here is a Google Sheets Doc where I started comparing them to the Astros and Cubs. If anyone wants to continue this work farther (including finding lower tiered prospects and other rebuilding teams) please feel free.
  19. Oxtung
    I agree. The commenters on this site are in the minority. We are uber fans that like watching the minor leagues to see what is on the horizon but when i talk to my friends that are casual fans, they are not interested in the up and coming players in the slightest. All they care about is the big names, Mauer, Santana, Dozier, Plouffe. I will say they know about Sano but that's because he was beyond awesome last year and we certainly can't count on that from anyone, rookie or veteran. My guess is attendance might not drop, most casual fans already don't care enough to go to games when they are this bad, but the numbers won't get better either. It would be an interesting study though from an analytical perspective.
  20. Oxtung
    We will see if they are this bad long term or not. That's why my last sentence was prefaced by, "..if we end with a terrible record...". I think you're over simplifying things by only comparing to their "career baseline". There was no crystal ball needed to see that Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Dozier, Mauer, Suzuki, Murphy, Park, Arcia, D. Santana, Jepsen, Fien, Perkins, Abad, Hughes, E. Santana and Nolasco all had questions about their ability to contribute this season. I'll grant you that few people thought they all would regress but even if only half of them regressed this would still be a pretty poor team. Again, we'll see if this continues for the season or if there is a bounce back along the way (I think there will be a bounce at some point) but if there isn't Ryan and the FO can't hide behind the words "Nobody saw this coming." There will have to be some accountability.
  21. Oxtung
    1) Players are bad 2) Ryan signed/Drafted these players 3) Ryan is responsible Seems like some pretty straight forward logic to me. I do understand Pohlad not firing him at this point in the season but if we end with a terrible record there better be some serious shakeup happening within the organization at season end.
  22. Oxtung
    According to gmLI stat on fangraphs, which measures how "intense" the situation is when a pitcher enters the game, May has been brought in to slightly above average intensity situations for the season while Jepsen has been well above average. Long story short. Make the switch and don't look back.
  23. Oxtung
    Baseball is the game that is most resistive to change and that stifles the game. I think baseball needs more shifting, not less. There is a preponderance of mathematical evidence that could change the way we think about the game in exciting new ways. I for one am bouncing in my chair in anticipation of these many new ideas becoming reality.
  24. Oxtung
    The Twins starters are dead last in strikeouts in the AL so far this season. Out of 99 qualified starters at this point the Twins are 42, 50, 89 and 90th. To me that isn't "more than enough."
  25. Oxtung
    And perhaps most importantly Meyer has only given up 2 walks in those 10 innings. On the other hand Duffey and Berrios seem to have taken a cue from Meyer's 2015 season so far....
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