Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Oxtung

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,027

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    Chief then said: Can't the same be said of the veteran relief pitchers Chief?
  2. Oxtung
    Santana May Berrios Duffey Gibson Milone Hughes Nolasco That's my preference top to bottom but with quite a few caveats. First, how does Duffey's curve look in spring training? If it's as good as last year he starts in the rotation if not he goes to the bullpen where I think he could be dominant. Is Gibson looking like the 4 or the 8 K/9 pitcher from last season. The former and he shouldn't be near the rotation; the later and he could be in for a nice season. I'm assuming much of Santana's struggles were due to playing catch up after the suspension. Berrios is our only chance for a top of the rotation starter. As such he needs a chance to show what he can do. If it doesn't work out you can always send him down to AAA at some point. With Nolasco, Hughes and Milone you're getting a number 3-5 pitcher and that is fine but they won't put you over the top either. Let them fill out the rotation as dictated by the players with more potential.
  3. Oxtung
    In part time work. Whether that is sustainable is anyone's guess, but for the sake of argument let's say it is. That puts him about 30th in baseball. The Twins have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball, isn't it time to improve that?
  4. Oxtung
    50 pitchers averaged >10 K/9 last season. The Twins had none. Another 30 pitchers had >9 K/9. Still the Twins had none. A bullpen headlined by Perkins, Jepsen and May isn't "good". It's not even "ok". When you compare it to what other teams have in the back end of their bullpens the Twins are quite clearly lacking. The good news is that the Twins could fix this by adding one really good reliever. That would bump everyone down the ladder one rung. All of a sudden, depending on match ups, Perkins, May and Jepsen are pitching the 7th and 8th innings with a lock down guy in the 9th. When our young fireballers are ready at some point in 2016 they can bump Fien out or replace an injured Perkins. We all of a sudden have depth. Next year when Jepsen leaves they can fill the 7/8 inning role and we aren't scrambling trying to find someone. By getting one really good reliever the Twins can hopefully solve their bullpen problems for the next few years with one stroke.
  5. Oxtung
    I must need to recalibrate my sarcasm emitter. I thought the fact that I moved every player to a new position would be enough but clearly not. So....
  6. Oxtung
    I think there is a very simple and clear solution to this. First, Sano should be at third base. Second, plouffe should move to first base. That keeps his glove in the infield and hides his arm. Mauer can move to LF where his arm will shine again. Rosario moves to right where his speed can track down the balls that clang off the overhang. Danny Santana can patrol CF and his speed can help cover some of the ground we lose with Mauer in left. Dozier would move back to his natural position of SS opening 2B up for Polanco. Park can DH and hit his 35 HRs per season that we signed him for and last, but not least, Nunez and Escobar can continue to get playing time in left field while letting Mauer rest. Truly I can't think of a better way to handle this roster. It all just kind of falls into place naturally.
  7. Oxtung
    I can understand that. It's a minor league award after all, but why include him at all then? I guess that is where my confusion came from. Unless your trying to say that in half a year Sano was more valuable than all but a handful of the prospects over the course of the full season? Something else I'm missing perhaps? Just trying to fully understand the criteria.
  8. Oxtung
    I don't understand putting ABWIII ahead of Sano. Can anyone explain that?
  9. Oxtung
    There are plenty of reasons for not calling Arcia up that have nothing to do with being in a doghouse.
  10. Oxtung
    Can we stick a fork in him now or do we have to wait to actually see him play?
  11. Oxtung
    I find it ironic that people are ripping the author for ripping the wave.
  12. Oxtung
    Why would Boston trade Swihart? They need a catcher too. Given the depth at pitching this offseason it seems likely they will go get a big name. I don't see this being a good fit.
  13. Oxtung
    I find it ironic that you're arguing Doumit and Suzuki would only bring back top 200 prospects at the same time you're pushing for Escobar to be the starting SS. As for Mauer we will never know because the trade was never seriously pursued despite interest. With Perkins only time will tell but history shows that relief pitchers and stability are rare combinations.
  14. Oxtung
    Every team needs depth at AAA and the Twins starters there next year are....highly questionable. I think it is very likely, barring injury of course that both Duffey and Berrios start the season in the minors.
  15. Oxtung
    Both Suzuki and Doumit had a 120 OPS+ at the deadline coming from the catcher spot. That is worth something decent, not top 100 talent perhaps but something valuable. Mauer could have been traded in 2012 or 13, can't remember which anymore, to the Red Sox who were very interested. Perkins had great value before he was extended and while performing well now, given the volatility of elite relief pitchers there is a very good chance this doesn't end well. Perhaps not all of those players should have been moved but I think it's hard to argue that Ryan sells high.
  16. Oxtung
    How about Suzuki, Doumit, Mauer, Burton, Fien or Perkins? He doubled down instead on every one of those contracts and lost.
  17. Oxtung
    So you agree with Jham, the reason that Santana played SS this year is because Ryan demanded it and not because he has the most range and the best arm of all the candidates?
  18. Oxtung
    Why does it have to be something this nefarious? Couldn't it just be that the Twins see what we all see, an unbelievable athlete with the potential to be a well above average SS defensively and average offensively if he ever puts it all together? Perhaps he has a ways to go but is anybody arguing he doesn't have the tools?
  19. Oxtung
    I decided to stay up late just to see what Sano's triple slash line looked like if his numbers were regressed. I chose a .325 BABIP based on the data from my last post. Current .424 BABIP: .289/.394/.584 OPS: .978 Regress .325 BABIP: .229/.343/.470 OPS: .813 Even after regression that is still a damn fine player and he clearly has room to improve if he can decrease that strike out rate. However that is still a large drop in OPS. We see that a .100 drop in BABIP leads to a .165 drop in OPS. Not something I expected before I started to run these numbers a few years ago.
  20. Oxtung
    You are absolutely right there are intriguing arms in the minors. The problem for next season, especially the beginning, is that none of them are close to ready. Of those you listed only Chargois has had even a decent year at AA or above (Melotakis we'll have to wait and see how he recovers). That means you can't count on any of them for next season. If one or two puts things together GREAT, but you have to start the season with alternatives better than Boyer and Thompson.
  21. Oxtung
    There are many things that go into BABIP and LD% is only one of them. Speed, FB/GB% and luck also play their rolls. IF Sano can maintain his 26% LD rate, which I think is a big if since that rate puts him in the top 10 in baseball, that really only guarantees an above average BABIP. Some stats from 2015 about LD% and BABIP * 23 out of the top 25 LD% hitters had above average BABIPs (>.300) * 6 out of the top 25 LD% hitters had BABIPS >.350 * 14 out of the top 25 LD% hitters had BABIPs >.325 What does this tell us? His LD% will likely lead to an above average BABIP. A BABIP around .325 seems a reasonable expectation. If he has some luck go his way perhaps he approaches .350. Anything over that is a very unrealistic expectation. When his BABIP comes down he will regress. Not just his BA either. His slugging will fall too because he'll be less lucky on extra base hits and because singles count towards slugging. I regressed the numbers for Joe Mauer a couple of years ago (when he was sporting a .400 BABIP) and posted them and the effect of BABIP is quite shocking.
  22. Oxtung
    I had this big long post typed up with all sorts of justifications for why May will start in the pen next season but ultimately it is pretty simple. The Twins aren't going to replace 4 out of 7 relievers in one offseason. May is going to get caught in a numbers game because the only people coming back next season will be Perkins, Jepsen and Pressly, assuming they are healthy. Fien, Duensing and Theilbar are not viable pieces for next season and O'Rourke is a depth guy not a go to late reliever. That forces Ryan to get 1 or 2 veteran lefties plus a righty. I would not be surprised if Cotts and/or Boyer are resigned. Tonkin is a possibility but the Twins haven't seemed inclined to hand him a spot up to this point so what will change next spring? That goes for all the other AAA relievers they haven't called up too. All in all it comes down to numbers and the Twins have many starters that are guaranteed to stay in that role even if we don't like it. On the other hand the bullpen needs help and that is going to be a big enough task for Ryan even with May staying in the pen.
  23. Oxtung
    How is RZR adjusted to reflect the shifting that Plouffe (and presumably others) are doing? I don't know how the twins compare to other teams but they certainly move Trevor around quite a bit and that could really affect his RZR.
  24. Oxtung
    It's not "fear" driving my caution but rather a different assessment on the risk/reward spectrum. I don't see 15 innings of his pitching in relief worth the loss of potential option years. I'm not worried about whether he'll make super 2 status, that means little enough for a team that doesn't spend to it's full payroll potential. That doesn't even take into account that this will be his first time up and it is just as likely (perhaps even more likely) that he is terrible rather than awesome, which you seem to be assuming. In addition he has a past history of wearing down at the end of seasons which further increases the odds that he will be mediocre. One other thing I just thought of, he has a history of struggling when he first arrives at a new level (which I would guess most prospects do). It's a few weeks before he really picks things up. In the end I see you seemingly making several assumptions. First, he will not tire. Second, he will not get hurt. Third, he will be a large upgrade over whoever he replaces in the bullpen. While those are all certainly possible I don't agree that 1 & 3 are likely and therefore 2 becomes a bigger issue.
  25. Oxtung
    Berries pitched 103 innings in 2013 and was worn down in the second half. In 2014, it is a bit hard to tell looking at his stats because he made the jump to AA midway through the year but it looks like he might have worn down a bit as well. His K:BB numbers decreased and his OPS against spiked in his second month at AA. He pitched 140 innings last year. At this point he's pitched 148 outstanding innings and he can probably stretch that arm out for a few more starts but his history suggests that at some point he will tire. I think at this point I would leave Berrios at AAA this year for many of the reasons suggested and because I don't like the idea of burning service time due to a possible injury just to get 10-15 innings out of a prospect. On the other hand Kepler is already on the 40 man and his K:BB rate makes me shake my head in wonder. I would definitely bring him up, even if it is to sit on the bench. Let him learn what he can because he will be needed in 2016. Somebody will regress or get hurt and given that he is already burning options years he needs to hit the ground running when he arrives. He has less time to learn before a decision has to be made compared to other prospects. TL;DR Berrios cya in 2016 Kepler what jersey number would you like?
×
×
  • Create New...