Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Oxtung

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,027

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    I'm saying the Rays took a package with MLB players, i.e. Less risk and less upside, intentionally so they could try to continue their window of contention the following year. The cost of acquiring young players that have shown themselves to be MLB quality is very high. Moncada could turn out to be Altuve or he could be Delmon Young. There is also the matter of the premium you pay to acquire pitching versus a 2B.
  2. Oxtung
    It's pretty clear the Dodgers FO doesn't feel the same as you otherwise these trade talks would have gone something like this: Falvey: Hello? Friedman: Hey I'm just checking in to see what you'd want for Dozier. Falvey: Well I'm not sure exactly from your system but I'd be interested in 3 top 100 prospects with the headliner being a MLB ready pitcher. Friedman: Well it was nice to talk to you, good luck with your rebuild.
  3. Oxtung
    That is possible. It's also possible it would be like adding Kohl Stewart following 2013, Delmon Young anytime before he broke into the majors, or Alex Meyer circa 2014. Prospect value declines just as often as it rises even for top prospects.
  4. Oxtung
    Those deals look very similar to me. A headliner (Smyly/Moncada), a legit big upside guy but with serious questions (Franklin/Kopech), and an Aball flier (Adames /Basabe). Perhaps there is slightly more upside for the Red Sox but the Rays took the higher floor with MLB ready players trying to extend their window of contention.
  5. Oxtung
    If that we're true than the corralary is that his peak value was last July when he had been ice cold. Since that is clearly not true... I'm perfectly comfortable keeping Dozier and revisiting this 12 months from now.
  6. Oxtung
    Personally I think this is the most probable framework for a trade. De Leon with one other top 100 player plus a high upside arm that is years away yet. Then you haggle over if a flier 4th piece is needed and who the extra arm and top 100 player is. For me personally I would do De Leon, Verdugo and Buehler. If it has to be Calhoun then I need a 4th piece like K. Ruiz or Lux. Alternatively the 4th piece could be someone closer to MLB ready like Toles or Oaks.
  7. Oxtung
    How many spaces do you think they need to open up for additional reinforcements? That might play a role in who the Dodgers are willing to part with as well.
  8. Oxtung
    Isn't Dozier the definition of inconsistent though? Why would he not benefit from a strong start to his season just as other players have? I think people are overemphasizing his value due to his years left on his contract. IMO clubs are more interested in getting a good player than one signed long term, especially as that player reaches his 30s. That goes doubly at the trade deadline. That said, right now Doziers return is more about only one team bidding and less about value; if there is still only 1 suitor at the deadline then the return likely won't change much either.
  9. Oxtung
    Many people would argue that is exactly what trading Dozier for prospects is.....
  10. Oxtung
    One of the writers from a dodger site (dodgerblue perhaps?) overlayed his 2016 HRs onto Dodger stadium and found that Dozier would only have lost a few. Essentially LF is slightly farther but CF is closer and the net result was like 3-5 HRs less. In other words it shouldn't be enough to matter.
  11. Oxtung
    Thanks. That is some interesting info. It also helps explain why making a deal is so hard. I'm sure there are a range of opinions in both organizations just as there are here.
  12. Oxtung
    So you don't know but it's a near certainty? I don't see how both of those could be true. Either way I don't agree with your assessment for two reasons. First, I think it is just as likely he goes on a hot streak to start the season and has a .900 OPS in July. Second, the premise that he is at "peak value" is predicated on the idea that his HR binge has somehow changed GM's perceptions of Dozier. I think the discussions here, the reported offer and common sense suggest that is false. Dozier is viewed as he always has been; a player that will likely give you 3-5 WAR each year for the next two seasons.
  13. Oxtung
    The Dodgers need to offer a package the Twins will accept. It does no good for them to offer the most only to still lose out on Dozier because the Twins didn't like the return.
  14. Oxtung
    Or you the Twins could take the middle option and reassess the trade market this July and again in December and if need be the following July again. Last July he might very well have been a toxic asset; now here we are six months later talking about a top of the line pitching prospect as a return. We have no idea what his worth will be six months from now let alone 18.
  15. Oxtung
    So is Mike Trout but not even he can carry a team to the playoffs. An Ace might bring 3 extra wins a year more than a back of the rotation pitcher. The Twins need 30. While an Ace would be great and everyone wants one the Twins future hinges on the young pitchers and hitters already in the organization. Hyping the Dozier trade up by saying the Twins future depends on it forces a scenario where they are desperate, unable to walk away and as a result accept a lesser return because they absolutely must trade him. To be clear I think they should trade him but if the return isn't adequate then keep him and live to play another day. That is not failure.
  16. Oxtung
    I'm not arguing that Dozier shouldn't be traded. I'm pushing back on the perception that the Twins future hinges on this trade being made immediately or they are doomed because his value will fall. Or the idea that the Twins pitching will be solved if only they can get an ace out of this deal. Regardless of what happens with this trade, the future of the Twins rotation hinges on the prospects already within the Twins system. They are going to fix this rotation. Even if De Leon becomes an Ace he is still just the cherry on the top.
  17. Oxtung
    I think you and I are actually in agreement. Specifically if the Twins can get someone that is a mid-rotation starter with a good chance to be more of course they should make that trade. My point was I have no interest in bringing in MLB ready pitchers whose upside is a mid-rotation starter just because they are ready now (or soon). Pitchers rarely reach their upside and when they don't having another 4/5 does absolutely nothing to help the Twins towards contention.
  18. Oxtung
    First let me say that I agree with this post that Dozier can't carry this team. But that goes true for any return the Twins get back in return for him too. Even if De Leon turns into Johan Santana jr this team is still a 90+ loss team unless other big changes happen elsewhere. That could be improvements from some guys, it could be more trades or even FAs coming in but this one trade, no matter how important it seems in this moment, isn't going to make or break the Minnesota Twins future regardless of what happens with Dozier. I think it's easy to lose the bigger picture and to believe this trade is the all important one when in fact we are only looking at 3 more wins per year in the future even if De Leon pans out. We still need 30 more from somewhere else. Twinsfan&Dad this reply isn't really directed at you it just seemed to piggy back off your thoughts.
  19. Oxtung
    I agree with your assessment, mostly because nobody else seems to have a nice clean fit, but even if those other teams were interested it behooves them to claim they are not. All that admitting your interested does is alert the Dodgers who could then theoretically up their offer causing you to miss out on Dozier. Better to claim no interest at this point and come in with an unexpected offer and hopefully steal a Dozier out from under the Dodgers.
  20. Oxtung
    I don't think anyone believes we currently are chock full of 3/4 types but the Twins do have Santana, Hughes, Gibson, May, Duffey, Berrios, Mejia, rule 5 guy all around for several more seasons. In addition they also have Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart and Jorge 1-2 years out. After that they have guys like Romero and Thorpe 2-3 years out. That's 14 starting pitchers that will need innings to show what they are capable of in the next few years. That also doesn't include any veterans they might want to bring in for leadership or on one year deals to recoup value with an eye towards flipping. Some of those guys will not pan out but the Twins won't know who until they invest the innings to find out. I think bringing back mid rotation guys just further muddies the water; it's just another mediocre pitcher to determine if they can sink or swim in MLB.
  21. Oxtung
    My read here is that the Twins don't like the current offer on the table from the Dodgers and are "leaking" information hoping to drive up the Dodger return. I think they have probably had some preliminary discussions with the Cardinals/Giants/Nats but they didn't go far because there really isn't a great fit with any of these teams but it is still accurate to say they have "shown interest". Personally I think the Twins leverage lies in just carrying Dozier into the season and looking to move him at a future point. I don't think teams are particularly fooled by the 42 HRs and so even if he reverts back to a.750ish OPS the potential returns will be less but not drastically so. On the other hand if he starts 2017 with a .900 OPS it might increase confidence that this truely is an increase in his baseline talent level.
  22. Oxtung
    I wouldn't be surprised if Stewart had the better career either though that's mostly because I think there are serious questions if De Leon can stay healthy with a starters work load. May be a dodger fan can help answer a question: have the dodgers been limiting his innings or is his lack of workload every year simply because of injuries? Most highly touted pitchers never reach their full potential, or at least take many years to get there (so you might only get a year or two before the reach FA). That's not to say they can't be good solid pitchers though. I guess I'm just trying to say I view De Leon as a mid-rotation starter for the next several years with the potential to hopefully be more one day and I all the information I have hints that Stewart is closer to a 4/5 with a chance of becoming a mid-rotation pitcher someday.
  23. Oxtung
    So you view him as equivalent to De Leon?
  24. Oxtung
    Those signs of decline will be just as obvious to the other teams too and their trade returns will be reduced commensurate to the decline. If you want to maximize the return the Twins need to trade him before he begins to decline.
  25. Oxtung
    There is just no way the Twins can do a deal anywhere close to JDL +Toles+Heredia. Even if The Twins braintrust agreed with your analysis and think that was an appropriate prospect return they still couldn't do the deal. The fan base would be outraged and the pressure on JDL would be immense to pitch like an Ace out of the gate because there is nothing else in that trade of any real value. After JDL inevitably fails to pitch like Johan Santana, Falvey and Levine's heads would be sure to follow shortly there after. The amount of risk in that deal makes it impossible to complete. If that truly is how LAs FO views things than there just isn't a deal to be made and it explains why things are stagnated.
×
×
  • Create New...