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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    He played 2B a couple of games but then was back at SS for the next 3 and finally he sat in their last game. So who knows.
  2. Oxtung
    I'm pretty much exactly opposite in view points. I can see if something was an error and have no need to have dick just retell what exactly is happening on the screen or going off on his generic errors are bad mantra. I'd much rather him tell me how poorly played the ball was (...93% of the time shortstops can handle those balls and when they don't it leads to trouble. When runners are on 1st and 2nd with two outs the lead runner scores 46% of the time.) now I know exactly how bad that play was and what the consequences are likely to be. Or on the flip side something like "only 2% of center fielders have made that play this year. That was truly a spectacular play!"
  3. Oxtung
    I think this answers the larger question. http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-04-01/fixing-baseballs-old-people-problem-with-merchandise-highlights The viewers consuming games have had a lifetime of traditional stats and they intuitively understand them. Those stats might not be perfect but the game makes perfect sense when most people hear them. As people age they become more entrenched in their traditions, that's not to say there aren't exceptions, and when that is your fan base by and large there should be an expectation that traditional stats are used. That said I hate it. So much so that my GF now hates it when announcers talk about pitcher wins or errors because she then has to listen to my rant
  4. Oxtung
    A couple of points. First, it is important to keep in mind that Sano has a BABIP >.400 and when that comes back to earth so will the rest of his stats (not that he will be bad just that he is going to regress some). So while he is playing very well, and hopefully will continue to improve there will also be a natural decline do to his BABIP. Just something to take into account. Second, does the fact that the Twins were unable/unwilling to buy out any of Doziers FA years have any impact on these negotiations? Does that add leverage to Sano?
  5. Oxtung
    I think most people here understand that prospect for prospect trades are rare and that this is most likely just a philosophical debate but that does not mean the debate shouldn't be had. Second, you yourself just named a trade where it did happen and by no means is it the only time it has happened. I don't remember who it was off the top of my head but another one happened earlier this year too.
  6. Oxtung
    The problem with waiting until a pitcher has proven themselves capable at the MLB level is that their value has significantly increased, to the point at which Buxton can no longer bring back an ace or even a #2 pitcher. He might be able to get a middle of the rotation starter but to get more than that you have to throw in another very good prospect or 3. Just look at the James shields trade a couple of years back. Or another way to look at it is would the Mets give up Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard or DeGrom? Definitely not. Not without much more than Buxton. So how do the jTwins get an ace pitcher for this next stretch where we all hope they are contending in most seasons? BTW I agree with many fans undervaluing Buxton currently.
  7. Oxtung
    Urias is a much much better prospect than Guerra ever was. At 18 Guerra had a 4 ERA with 6.6 K/9 in the pitcher friendly FSL A-ball. Urias has a 3.20 ERA and >10 K/9 in the hitter friendly Texas AA league. Urias was also ranked in the top 10 MLB prospects coming into the year and has only increased his value over the season.
  8. Oxtung
    I understand your reluctance to trade for most pitching prospects, in fact that is why I only listed 3 and I'm not positive on 2 of those myself, but Urias seems like a no brainer to me. 18 year old lefty throws low to mid 90s that has absolutely dominated at every step he's been, including AA this year. Another way to look at it is to compare him to Berrios. Urias is 2 years younger but only half a season behind Berrios (Berrios finished 2014 in AA and Urias began 2015 in AA.) Urias has been more dominant at a younger age and in tougher leagues than Berrios. And he's left handed. I see Urias as being the closest thing to a sure fire super star in the minors right now. I'm curious why you wouldn't trade Buxton for him straight up, though to be fair I doubt the Dodgers would do that trade.
  9. Oxtung
    I'd be ok with trading Buxton for elite level pitching. Julio Urias, Giolito, Glasnow perhaps. Bundy maybe. A really interesting name to me is Fernandez from the Marlins. Guy is an absolute stud but can't stay healthy yet. Still just 23. Big injury risk but proven huge upside. He will be entering arbitration next season so maybe the Marlins aren't interested in his price tag..... Very intriguing to me.
  10. Oxtung
    After rereading his post I think I'm more in line with OP than my last pieces suggested. At this point hicks, even after his splits have normalized a bit, is hitting enough to be a CF as long as he is playing great defense which he has been this season. I'm more pushing back on the notion that Hicks is a sure thing at this point and that he will slide easily into a corner OF spot when Buxton arrives. So to clarify, he appears like he will hit enough to be a below average offensive but still good defensive cf with potential to improve. Anything more than that is highly questionable at this point imo.
  11. Oxtung
    IMO, I'd like them to go farther than balls and strikes. I'd like them to automate foul/fair calls and get started on algorithms for the close plays at the plate and the bases. The human element I like to see are the players, not the umpires.
  12. Oxtung
    To be fair, every mlb OF should be able to make a diving catch. The question should more be about his routes and reaction time and acceleration none of which we can measure without seeing more in the videos. On the other hand, he has played some CF at AA this year where as Arcia didn't after rookie ball IIRC. Hard to know until we see him up here for awhile.
  13. Oxtung
    This is a bit premature IMO. His stats are being driven by his unsustainably high .417 BABIP against left handed pitchers. That is going to fall and when it does.... Well who knows where it ends at and how that will affect his overall game. His splits against righties are mediocre but certainly nothing special.
  14. Oxtung
    Hicks has a .310 OBP against right handed pitching. He should not be near the top of the order most games. Now against lefties...... Swing away Mr. Hick, swing away.
  15. Oxtung
    Aaron Hicks is a big regression candidate. He currently is being carried by his splits against left handed pitchers where he is sporting a .417 BABIP. Now he also has a slightly below average BABIP against righties. However when things start to balance out he'll be getting more singles from the right side of the plate (his weak side) and more of his doubles(and singles) will become outs from his strong side. To me that speaks to a decline in production overall, both avg and slugging. I think at some point next year either Sano or Kepler will be needed in the OF, unless of course the Twins sign a corner OF FA.
  16. Oxtung
    I think the biggest reason to put May back into the rotation is his K-rate. At ~8 his K/9 is above average and over the last 3 years pitchers with an above average k-rate have had above average ERAs 75% of the time. Those with below average K-rates have above average ERAs just 39% of the time. Those that are well below average, like Pelfrey, are above average rarely. Then you should use the ERA estimator (and really I think everybody should be anyways) SIERA which accounts for a pitchers batted ball profile and adjusts for league and ball park. Though, SIERA says Pelfrey is still a significantly worse pitcher than May. Also May has had very good HR rates in the minors as well. Unlike his walk rates there is nothing to suggest he should regress significantly.
  17. Oxtung
    I think it's pretty simple. He's not a veteran and doesn't have a guaranteed contract. This is the Twins MO and has been for years. If you're a vet you get a long leash. If you have a guaranteed contract it's even longer. In this case though to be fair he hasn't been exactly great out of the bullpen.
  18. Oxtung
    I think it's important to realize that even superstars decline and that decline can come quickly indeed. It's easy to think that because they're great they'll continue to be great and slowly decline over the years but reality isn't that neat. There is a very real possibility that any player, superstars included, can crash and burn and do it in a hurry.
  19. Oxtung
    How do you know if you don't give him a chance to learn? He has played all of 90 games at SS in the majors. Do you doubt he has the tools? If so which?
  20. Oxtung
    Is anybody questioning that currently Escobsr is a better all around SS than Santana? I think the case being made is that Escobar isn't good enough to be an everyday SS and that while admittedly Santana hasn't been good so far this year he has the tools to be one going forward. His range and arm are clearly superior and his speed makes him more dangerous offensively. Perhaps what this really comes down to is where one sits on the "win now/win future" spectrum?
  21. Oxtung
    So the consensus is that Tulo is s great player and currently 100+odd games of him at SS with the remainder of those games going to a back up is still great production at the SS position. However we all agree there are injury issues and that a decline is likely and at some point will need to be moved to a new position. Therefore depending on how one views his aging curve and the Twins other options at SS determines where exactly one falls in the great Tulo debate?
  22. Oxtung
    I have no problem with the Twins riding Nunezes bat right now. He has an .800 ops and a 120 wRC+ and at DH his glove isn't an issue. If Sano goes on the dl then perhaps they need to reevaluate the idea but fir a few games.... Meh. As for Arcia I thought he should have been up a while ago splitting time against righties in the OF helping keep a certain 40 year old fresh through the end of the season. There are enough at bats for him if Molitor wants to make it happen.
  23. Oxtung
    Santana has more range, a better arm and more speed on the bath paths than Escobar so I understand why they keep trying him out. Personally I'm ok with Escobar, polanco or Santana going forward. I just don't want to see the team waste time and prospects at a position where there are viable alternatives.
  24. Oxtung
    Batters perform significantly worse when pinch hitting than when starting. The drop off is startling. It is so large in fact that pinch hitting Nunez for Suzuki would probably decrease the teams chances of scoring a run. This article is a little dated ('05) but I can't see why the conclusion would have changed. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5404
  25. Oxtung
    I didn't know gleeman and meat sauce were so close!
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