beckmt

Only note, Twins have about $100 Million to reach last years payroll, probably about 80 - 90 after arbitration and raises. Depends on whether Twins are able to extend either/or Rosario and Berrios. They would need to extend both I feel to come close to a $90 million payroll in 2019 in this formula.

As the Twins 2018 season ends - this is my attempt to prodict what the Twins will do for 2019. Assumptions: 1. Joe Mauer retires 2. The FO decides the Twins are too far away to put a lot of money into next year. 3. With Gibson, Pineda, and Ordrizzi all having expiring contracts at the end of next year Twins decide to see what they have coming up, rather than throwing a lot of extra money into trying to catch lightning in a bottle and Cleveland at the same time. 40 man roster: Twins let a number of players depart. Belise, Slegers, Morrison, Forsythe, McGill, Pettit, Gimminez, Granite, Gratarol This should leave plenty of room to move pieces around as I now have 10 openings on the 40 man. Adds from 60 day DL Mejia, Pineda Adds not on 40 man. Thrope, Wade, Gordon (they may be others I have missed) Free agents: One mid level or 4/5 type to compete for a starter job, 1 significant FA (upper range 3/36 range) reliever, 1 - 2 mid level relievers to compete for jobs next year. One FA to play MI on a 1 - 2 year contract or maybe Escobar (this may take 3/30 type money give or take). Other choice would be to send 1 - 3 of starting pitcher depth for a #3 type on a bad club with 2 - 3 years of control (Duffy - but this is just an example). This leaves us with: Starters: Berrios, Gibson, Pineda, Oderizzi, Stewart(or FA) Bullpen: FA1, FA2, May, Rodgers, Hildenberger, Drake, Reed Catcher: Castro Infield: Austin, Polonco, Sano, FA Outfield: Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave (Grossman, Wade) Utility: Adrianza, Garver, Astudillo Spend: Depends on whether Twins sign Berrios and/or Rosario to long term contracts and spend on FA pitching. My guess based on this roster would be in the $80 million range (less if no current players are extended). Other assumption is that Buxton makes the team (otherwise have room for both Grossman and Wade in this scenario. Have a desire to have players that can make a pitcher work and less swing and miss (they tend to strike out in key situations). Having stated this (have at it). Will hope to post a balanced and a higher spending assumption later this week.

If you do not think the pitching especially the bullpen is not a major issue, I have a 70's quote for you "What are you smoking'

If you wish to go this route, why not just play Adrianza at SS. Lewis will probably be here in 2020 or 2021 so more than a two year deal for a SS is an issue for me. Play Sano at 3B as long as you can, with his off days at DH. In you plan Austin would not be on the club. Escobar makes some sense for me as you have 3 guys who can play different INF positions and one on the bench any given day. Put the bigger money into pitching, twins need upgrades there.

Dozier left under somewhat bad terms (blasting the trades before he was traded), do not think he comes back. Escobar is nice, but will probably want more than 2 years, as it seems like we have several utility types with the club now. Still would not be a bad fit, just wondering how much the overpay will be. Would rather put most of the money in on pitching. We have a low starting payroll next year and it will probably be 2021 before our offensive starters command significant amounts of money. Much depends on if Mauer returns(which I doubt) and if you can sign Berrios and Rosario to 5 - 7 year deals at a decent rate. Interesting offseason.

Great job by Berrios, hopefully he keeps improving to at least a #2 starter.

Some of the guys on the list may be looking for a 1 - 3 year contract with an op-out if they do really well. Three names stand out on the list Herrera, Britton, Familia. Twins need at least one of the three and maybe two to compete with the better pens. Familia will probably be too expensive and a better club looking for a closer may well overpay for him. The other two are possible, maybe Britton will have less money(but also higher risk) than the others. Rest are throw darts at, but the Twins need at least two relievers off that list and hope they pick the correct ones.

I think Stewart has the best chance to be a starter. To me Gonsalves is a typical AAAA type and Littel needs more development. Still need the starting pitcher depth so my guess is that Gonsalves, Romero and Littel start in AAA (along with maybe Stewart depending if we sign or trade for a better starter). Cave will be either a starting outfielder or the 4th outfielder depending on Buxton's health and if he starts next year in Minnesota. Kepler will probably play multiple postitions depending on how Austin hits and if Mauer retires(which I suspect he will). Astudillo could well be here, unless they sign Escobar as the super utility player and bench bat. I like him as he seldom strikes out and maybe not walking is an issue, but Twins have too many players who strike out in key situation too often. Plus a third catcher could let Garver play 1B on some days, or maybe as a part time there if Austin does not pan out.

Hard to say, since I agree with much of the above. I see Rogers, May, Addison Reed and Hildenburger as the only 4 givens from this years pen to be back next year. One of Magill or Drake will probably wind up as the long reliever and Curtiss, Anderson and Jay will be given looks in spring training (if Jay is still in the orgainization). Duffey, Reed, Moya, Busentiz and a couple of the minor league starters who are out of options will likely move on. That leaves 2 - 3 open slots of which the Twins need to fill at least 2 with higher quality relievers from the outside. Twins starting staff has gotten to about league average this year, but would you like to be locked in a bullpen dual with (Yankees, Seattle, Milwaukee, Oakland, Houston, Atlanta) or any of the other top bullpen clubs in the major leagues. Gap needs to be closed and cannot be done internally for next year. It is fine if you are writing off next year, I still do not wish to do that.

Duffy is better than most of the Twins young starters. You also need depth. Do not trade for a superstar until it is the last piece you need to put you over the top. Twins are a ways from that, but a few very good pieces could push you by Cleveland.

I would take more than 1 of our top 3 for one of the Mets studs, they would start with Lewis and probably Gastrol, plus more. Not worth that price. Pieces like Duffy from KC or other clubs of this ilk who are looking more like 2021 -2022 for first year of contention and just want to be respectable by getting 2 or 3 of Twins close to major league ready pitching prospects to me is much more doable.

I also believe the Twins need to sign or trade for a #1 or #2 starter. You can fill in the rest or trade Oderizzi, or maybe package of few of the minor league starters for a better pitcher from a team that needs starters and is cheap (KC come to mind, but might not trade Duffy). Hard call, but standing still will say the team is still in rebuild mode and not serious about contending in 2019.

1. Cleveland does not have unlimited funds, bullpen fix will not be easy and they will be bidding on the same relievers as the Twins. 2. Twins need to find out how the young starters play out, but I would trade 3 of them for a decent mid range starter (out of Littell, Gonsaleves, Duffey and maybe Stewart or Mejia). 3. Escobar could play 2B with Polonco at SS for next year. 4, Need to figure out where Sano will play. And he had better hit.

Have seen several good points made in this post. I have a few more to address. 1. Cleveland is not that good. Why punt when you can go for it without hurting us down the road. 2. Absolutely sign 2 good relievers this offseason, Twins cannot afford to be throwing out the relievers we have this season. 3. Only May, Rogers and Hildenburger should feel they have spots next year, make the rest of the relief staff earn their positions. 4. Twins need to trade some of their starter depth before the rule 5 draft, otherwise the closer we get to the rule 5 the more teams just wait and see who the Twins will have to make available. 5. Need to find a short term SS and move Polanco to 2nd. Adrianza may work out, but Escobar would help a lot. 6. I agree Twins need to find a big bopper for the middle of the lineup. Too many rallies are dying with bad AB's by some of the Twins players. Twins can afford to make the effort to contend next year, while not punting the long term. Do not know if it will work, but they have the money and the core to give it a try.

We should be able to tell where the Twins are going next year by the end of the year. If next year is sort them out, then Oderizzi should be send packing and Gibson either extended or traded. You have 8 candidates for one starting slot and that is unworkable. Otherwise you should package a few of them for a better midrange pitcher and sign a #1 or #2 starter plus a least a couple very good relievers. We will know soon.

Seems like Seth left out Stewart and Mejia (or does he have inside information on them that they are not in the Twins plans going forward). Interesting group and more interesting is what the Twins plan for next year with only one spot open at this time.

I do not have the list I saw in front of me, but I believe Kimbal and Andrew Miller are available. Also Dolittle, Herrera, and some othere. I do believe Kimball and Andrew Miller will be in that range (assuming Miller can prove he's healthy). Doolittle, Herrera, Famela and some of the other will be between $9 and $12 million a year. If you have not looked relief pitching prices are going up. Clubs are learning the value of great relief pitching (they are cheaper than starters and can affect many more games when you are ahead). Twins need to get with the program.

Reed will be back, just do not think the Twins can count on him for next year to be used in high leverage situations. I also am in favor of the Twins signing a closer type, just hope it is the right one.

I do think it is likely Gimenez will be a coach somewhere next year. I also feel the clubhouse was not great this year (don't know if it was toxic, but probably was close). Twins may have to do a better job of monitoring the players offseason. It may not be possible but Twins cannot afford Sano to show up way overweight and out of shape and Buxton not to have spent a lot of time working on his batting and his approach to hitting (maybe a month or two of winter ball will help), if not maybe it could be a reality check for him.

Twins starting pitching will not match Cleveland in the next couple of years, that is a given. However the Cleveland bullpen is no prize and getting worse, unlike a couple of years ago. Trading Pressly (which was the one move I had doubts about) has cost the Twins as they would now be on their way to a shutdown bullpen(if not one close). With Rodgers and Hildenberger and a couple of more pieces, this would be a bullpen you would have to respect in how you manage the game. Rant warning This is one of my biggest issues with Molitor. He does not seem to recognize that you have to play a different game against the clubs that have shutdown bullpens, you have to play to score early and often and to be ahead(by as much as possible) after 5 innings. Tampa Bay has figured this out, and their bullpen has masked many other issues with that ballclub. Until Molitor learns to manage differently against different clubs, Twins will never by a well above .500 team(no matter what their talent level. Just change the Twins record in one run ballgames and they would be close to .500 despite all their other issues. Unlike some of the other posters here, I do feel with some additions in 2019 and some recovery to close to form from some Twins players Twins will be competitive in 2019. Indians outside of their starting rotation and some key regulars are not better than the Twins. I do not underestimate pitching, but given some improvement our offense should be better than Cleveland in 2019. Twins have the money to spend (between $60 and $80 million) they should be able to accomplish something. 1. Sign one more starting pitcher(but only if #1 or #2 starter), otherwise they may be no better than some of the youngsters the Twins need to try. 2. Find 2 bullpen pieces to help put together a shutdown pen. This will require some money as the better ones will be expensive ($12 - $18 million a year). 3. Find a 1B and a (2B or SS) to play for the next 2 years (1B may only need to be 1 year). This is not an impossible task list. Let's do it.

Outside of Pressly( which is looking like a mistake, though he is an FA I believe after 2019), none of the players traded were going to be here without resigning after this season (maybe Rodney). Most were the old getting something for nothing (and you hope that maybe one of the new players or more hit).

The jury is out, but the last two drafts have me very hopeful for the future. The only reason the Twins farm system is not in the top 10 is because most of the better players are 2 - 4 years away. I expect them to jump up in the rankings over the next year. The new FO started with a low Farm system, because when they took over most of the top talent had already graduated to the Twins and you can say what you want, but TR drafties and signings have produced 5 starting players for the current Twins. This does not count the pitching staff. Not a horrible set of years considering where he started from.

Very close and decent watch list, will see how they develop when most of them go to Cedar Rapids next year.

You seem to forget they were 3 outs away from a championship a few years ago. And they have had other teams that were contenders (and still will be with the outstanding starting pitching they have for a short term series). They have been close a few times, we have not won a playoff game since 2004 and took advantage of the same weak division that Cleveland is taking advantage of now.

Let's take this step by step: 1. We were getting nothing for Dozier, he was leaving at the end of the year and not coming back. A QO to me was out of the question. Prospects we got may not be great, but De Jong may be a piece, too early to tell. 2. Even if Gonsalves is a AAAA type, Twins should have a passible rotation next year, Berrios, Gibson, Oderizzi, Pineda, and a group of De Jong, Stewart, Little and maybe Thorpe should have enough to get us by. This group will not be great, but could be better than this year. 3. If Sano and Buxton recover somewhat, our offense should be playable. Castro and Garver at catcher, Austin and Kepler at 1B(if we do not resign Mauer), FA at 2B or SS. Polonco at one Middle infield position, Sano at 3B. Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and Cave in the outfield. Maybe Wade can make it. You have the room and the money for some decent FA signings in the position market, and the openings are were you do not have to break the bank, unless you want to go top shelf.(would be nice, do not expect it.) 4. Relief Pitchers have plenty out there, 4 top end closers and multiple other guys. Would like to see Twins spend in this area, but am not sure who they want. Kimbel, Miller, Herridia, come to mind and I am sure there are others. I am looking at several mid range short term signings 2 - 3 years max. Outside of Rodgers and Hildenberg do not think Twins have much in the way of relievers coming back, but expect a few of them to be here (moya, may, Duffey) along with hopefully a couple or three decent signings) This will get you a mid range club with some playoff hopes. Rest of the division outside of Cleveland is a dumpster fire and 3 - 5 years away from even thinking about contending (yes the White Sox may be closer, but have little at the major league level (outside of decent starting pitching) at this time.