Fatbat

Even the most optimistic of Twins fans now has to realize it is time to sell.
Another day and another loss to another last place team. Out of the break the Twins had a chance to make a statement with 6 of first 9 games against last place teams the Rockies and the Nationals. They did not disappoint.  From making a statement anyways, just not the statement we were hoping for.
Becoming the first team to lose a series ALL YEAR to the Rockies, and then losing a 3 game series 2-1 at home against the Nationals. Yes we won 2 of 3 against Dodgers, but cannot put much into that given everything else that has happened, and the Dodgers have been in a funk.
 
SO now there is NOTHING getting in the way of the Twins making moves. Gone is the "soft sell" or "soft rebuild" Now we need to maximize talent in return for top potential trade chips.
SELL SELL SELL!!!  and not just the Ty Frances and Harrison Baderses of the world.
Is Texas a potential new trade partner? and if so how aggressive will they be?  With Seager back and healthy again, with deGrom back and healthy again, the Rangers are making their usual 2nd half run.  now just 4 games back in the division and .5 out of the wildcard.
Texas is looking for a big arm in the bullpen, and could use a RH bat. The Twins can be in position to provide BOTH in one trade!!!
Wili Castro may not be a BIG bat, but he is a QUALITY bat and his versatility will offset some of his lack of power. then of course there is Jax and Duran. at this point we should move at least one of them.
Just how much would Texas be willing give up to significantly shore up their chances?
Would they be Sebastian Walcott willing? 
I would assume he would be a non starter from Texas' perspective, but would he really??  While he is the #4 overall prospect in the game, and is seen as close to a cant miss as you can have.  Prospects are indeed prospects until proven otherwise.
A career .257 hitter with a 29% K rate and .783 OPS doesn't scream future HOF, but the kid is only 19 playing at AA. the Rangers challenge their prospects, and the talent is there.
Walcott is a SS/3B. 
Seager is only 31, a perennial MVP candidate and under contract for 6 more years. He is not going anywhere... SS BLOCKED
Josh Jung, was a #8 overall pick. While he hasn't really blossomed into his potential is still there. Josh Smith is also serviceable, and both just 27, so while 3B by no means BLOCKED, they can live with what they have there.
We need to shoot for the moon and go hard after Walcott,  We offer Duran, Castro, and Emmanual Rodriguez. for Walcott.
Duran is a proven commodity and has a ton of trade value, dominant arm and controllable for a few more years.  Castro was an AllStar, a consistent hitter and the RH bat Texas needs.
And yes we throw in Rodriguez. Is this an overpay?  possibly, Rodriguez could end up being a perennial Allstar on the level of Walcott or better.  But he has just never stayed healthy!!! at this point we can no longer have top prospects with health histories as part of our future plan.
As far as Walcott's fit here? We have Correa. Yes he has a no trade clause, but would he waive it to go to a contender? Would he move to 3B to protect his health?  Possibly on both,   and yes we have Royce Lewis at 3B, but is that still his final home? We wont have to make that call for another 1-2 years. and with Walcott's arm and speed could make a transition similar to Fernando Tatis into the OF.
 
and while having to wait 1-2 years to see anything from trading Duran, Castro and a top prospect of our own may look like a tear down rebuild move, would it really?  Yes losing Duran would hurt. but we would still have Jax, and what good is an elite closer if we are not in closing positions?  Castro is 99.9% gone after this year anyway as an UFA. So that is not a loss moving forward.  Losing Rodriguez could be a short term hit, but again he just cant stay healthy, and if we believe in Walker Jenkins, then he sort of buffers the loss as they both had similar time frames and both are OF.
My new Endorsement...
Trade Duran and whoever else we need to get Sebastian Walcott!!
 
 

I think a great "soft sell" move would be the Twins trading 1 or 2 of Martin, Julien,  Miranda to Oakland for Luis Severino.
Severino is having a perceived bad year, He actually has value.
His split are solid away from that minor league ballpark the As play in, with an ERA of 3.03 on the road vs. 6.68 at home. while he is not a strikeout machine, he i slimiting hitters to a .212 avg on the road vs .303 at home.  Giving up .820 OPS at home but just .605 on the road.
He just signed a 3 year $67M deal this past offseason.  Part of the reason for that is the league mandate that Oakland had to spend to a certain threshhold.
I am sure MLB woudl frown on them just trading to slash salaries after that mandate, but they couldnt block a deal based on "baseball sense" 
 
So lets say Twins send 1-2 of Julien, Martin, Miranda to Oakland for Severino where Twins take on 100% of remaining salary this year, but Oakland retains 50% the next 2 years.
 
That would basically mean the Twins get Luis Servino on a 2 year deal (after this year at an average of $12M per). 2 years at $24M total would be a great sign as a FA signing of a pitcher of Severinos potential!!
If we get the "away" version of Severino for that money that is a STEAL!!!
Oakland is not contending this year, and most likely nto until they move to Vegas which is still not until 2028.  There is ZERO need to have Severino on the roster, and he wouldn't have been if they weren't forced to spend.
 
Would Severino be better than... Paddack? Zebby? Fest? Bullpen Game?  I think so!!
 
and next year with a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, a potentially healthy Ober, Severino, would be a great base for a new ownership group to play with.
And none of Martin, Julien, Miranda, etc will be part of the future anyways.
 
Build for the future without "selling" now.
 

Danny Coulombe is in his second stint with the Twins. He pitched last year with the Baltimore Orioles. Coulumbe was very effective out of that Orioles bullpen, sporting a 2.12 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP over 29 2/3 innings last year. When the Twins re-signed him before this season, they were counting on him being the only lefty in the bullpen so they could use him in any matchup, especially against right-handed hitters. What the Twins have gotten out of Coulombe so far this year is one of the best starts to a season for him, and he also has a nice scoreless streak dating back to last year. Here are some of the incredible stats Coulumbe has put up this year and the latter part of 2024 with the Orioles
He has pitched 17 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings over his last 18 appearances, stretching back to last season. Here are some more astonishing stats so far this year.
9 games 7 2/3 INN 27 batters faced 3 hits 0.00 ERA 0.52 WHIP 0.91 OPP BA .130 OPP OBP .136 OPP SLG .145 BAbip (Batting Avg. on Balls in Play) 2-14 VS RHB 1-13 VS LHB This may be a small sample size this year, but Coulombe has been exceptionally good at getting hitters out this season. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, but he mixes speeds well and has a lot of movement on his pitches. Considering Griffin Jax's shaky start, the Twins should explore using Coulombe in higher-leverage spots.
 
 
 

Hello, fellow humans! My name is William Malone IV. Son of William Malone III. And I come with great news! The Minnesota Twins will be playing a spring training baseball game against the Atlanta Braves tomorrow.
What an exciting time of year this is. And the best way to celebrate these exciting times are with some bold(ish) predictions for the 2025 season.
1. Griffin Jax strikes out triple digits
The Twins haven't had a primary relief pitcher strike out 100 or more batters in a single season since Juan Rincón fanned 106 in 2004. In the years since, nobody has come closer than Jax did in 2024. The Air Force product struck out 95 opponents over 71.0 innings pitched last season, and it's possible that the Twins position in the standings cost him the opportunity to reach the 100 strikeout milestone. With the playoffs out of reach, Rocco Baldelli opted out not use Jax in their final three game series of the regular season. It was well earned rest for Jax, who has logged the fifth most relief innings in the Majors since the start of 2022.
2. The Twins steal 100 bases for the first time since 2012
100 is a nice round number, so we'll make it a bit of a theme. This sounds like a big leap coming off a year where the Twins only stole 65 bases, but they have the pieces to pull this off. Minnesota didn't lose much speed over the off-season. Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Farmer, Carlos Santana and Manuel Margot collectively stole nine bases in 548 games last year. Players like Austin Martin (7 SB in 93 G), Brooks Lee (3 SB in 50 G) and Edouard Julien (6 SB in 94 G) can help add to the total simply by taking away extra at-bats from some of those departed players. Harrison Bader also stole 17 bases for the New York Mets last year. For this to be even possible, Willi Castro would need to get back to his 2023 form where he stole 33 bases. The utility man swiped just 14 bags in 2024.
3. Joe Ryan is an All-Star
Joe Ryan was pitching so well before a shoulder strain in August ended his season seven weeks early. He had the fourth best strikeout-to-walk ratio and eight lowest WHIP among pitchers who started at least 20 games last season. The tools are very clearly in place. As is the case with several players on the Twins, he just needs to be healthy and on the field to earn the accolades. 
4. Carlos Correa wins the Silver Slugger
Maybe this goes under the radar a bit, but Carlos Correa has the fifth highest OPS among shortstops since joining the Twins in 2022. And that's with a lackluster 2023 season dragging his numbers down a bit. The man produces at the plate. He just needs to be healthy enough to get the necessary at-bats. 2024 seemed like it was poised to be a career year. Correa had a .900 OPS for the first time since the ultra juiced ball year of 2019, but his foot injuries resurfaced and he didn't play at all between July 12th and September 14th. He wasn't putting up empty stats either. Correa hit .314 in high leverage situations, according to Baseball Reference.
5. Max Kepler has a solid year in his new home
The bar for "solid year" will be different for everyone, but the prediction here is that Kepler adjusts to post-Twins life better than several other Bomba Squad-era teammates who have since been castoff. Kepler is going to a really good hitters park where he'll have a lot of protection up and down the lineup, and he's also been better than some of these other pieces in recent years. What Eddie Rosario did in the 2021 NLCS was fun to watch, but he still has an 83 OPS+ with -8 defensive runs saved since leaving Minnesota. Kepler's career low for OPS+ in a single season is only 91. Mitch Garver is another Bomba Squad player who went off and won a World Series with a new team, but there's only so much value you bring as a DH and occasional fill-in piece at catcher. The other players to look at from that core are Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano, who have done even less than the previously mentioned players.
6. Ty France does not make Twins opening day roster, Jose Miranda starts at first base
Ty France has a non-guaranteed contract, so the Twins would be able to release him at the end of camp for no money lost. The only thing it would've cost them is a 40-man placeholder for six or seven weeks. Minnesota had a similar arrangement with Anibal Sanchez in 2018. He signed a Major League contract in the off-season, but the money was only guaranteed if he made the opening day roster. Anyway, it's time for Jose Miranda to assume a full time role. He's moved around between first base, third base and designated hitter during his time with the Twins. After bouncing back from a poor showing in 2023, a strong showing in the Grapefruit League might be all Twins management needs to give him his first full time role.
7. Jorge Alcalá continues his hot and cold career
There is no denying that Jorge Alcalá has talent. Every Twins fan who has watched him knows he can be special when pitching at his best. But his whole career has been filled with these ups and downs. It's an on again, off again relationship that rivals Ross and Rachel. Last season was no different. Alcalá owned a 1.63 ERA through 35 appearances at the end of July. His ERA was 6.41 across 19 outings in August and September. His worst outing was in an August 18th loss to Texas that many point to as the beginning of the Twins late season slide. Alcalá is turning 30 in July. He's been a big leaguer since 2019. At this point, there's no reason to expect anything different. He's going to give the Twins some good stretches, and some bad ones.
8. Twins trade for Framber Valdez at the deadline
Houston doesn't bend over backwards to keep their own guys. Just look at the laundry list of core pieces they've let go; Correa, Springer, Keuchel, Morton, Tucker, Bregman, Pressly. There was even a point where they let Justin Verlander sign with the Mets, only to get him back via trade three months later. If you're not Jose Altuve, they are willing to let you walk out the door and call up their next prospect in line. For that reason, a 31-year old Framber Valdez might be available as a rental. Especially if the Astros can't withstand losing Tucker, Bregman and Pressly all in one off-season. This just might be a re-set year for the organization as they wait for their next wave of prospects.
9. Chris Paddack gives Twins 20-25 solid starts
It's impossible to bank on Chris Paddack for a full 30+ start season with his injury history, but he can still be a solid fifth starter option. Think about the role Kenta Maeda played for the Twins in 2023; 20 starts with a 4.23 ERA. Maybe Paddack won't be quite that good, but Minnesota would sign up for anything close to that. And the 2023 Twins probably didn't have as much starter depth behind Maeda to supplement the time he was down. That was a team who was running Dallas Keuchel out there at points. Fans probably feel better about the Woods-Richardson, Festa, Matthews trio of depth than the shell of Dallas Keuchel. 
10. The Twins win 95 games and take the AL Central
Minnesota was on a 92 win pace as late as August 17th last year, and then the season went off the rails. It's always easy to blame pitching for a collapse like that, and the Twins certainly had problems with their staff. Joe Ryan was hurt, their trio of rookie starters all seemed to hit a wall, and the bullpen was falling apart. But despite all that, the bats were still a bigger issue down the stretch. From August 18th onward, the Twins scored just 137 runs. Only the White Sox and Nationals scored less over that span. In short, everything went wrong over those final 38 games. But sometimes, you need to trust bigger samples. Believe in what you saw for 124 games. Not 38. Even without doing much this off-season, Minnesota is still a very good ball club.

And so concludes my Golden Anniversary year.
Not the Golden Anniversary of my birth. I’m a little way past that. And not the Golden Anniversary of my wedding. We’re a little way short of that.
Rather, this past July 13 marked the Golden Anniversary of the Detroit Tigers beating the homestanding Kansas City Royals 8-3, in front of 25,834 fans. Woody Fryman was the winning pitcher, scattering 12 hits over nine innings. Future Hall of Famer and 3,000 Hit Club member Al Kaline was the only player in the Tiger lineup not to get a hit. By contrast, little-used left fielder Marv Lane had four of his career 37 hits that night. He also had his only career triple and both of his career stolen bases. For the Royals, Cookie Rojas plated both runs with an inside the park homer and Kurt Bevacqua and Hal McRae each had three hits.
As MLB games go, it was pretty routine. But it was anything but routine for the eight-year-old kid sitting in Aisle 119, Row JJ, Seat 4, attending his first-ever big league game.
How do I know there was a kid in that seat attending his first game? Because I still have the ticket stub.
 
To celebrate this Golden Anniversary, I did two things this summer. First, I decided to go to three specific games to celebrate. I went solo to each of the three, which also provided time for reflection, as I thought baseball memories on the drive to and from.
The first game was at new Comiskey in Chicago. Or call it U.S. Cellular, Guaranteed Rate, whatever. I chose new Comiskey because for a long time, that was where I went to games most often, often catching the Twins when they were in town.
Ironically, I was standing a dozen or so rows back in the left field bleacher during batting practice, watching others clamor for balls hit into the stands. Some Twin staffer grabbed a ball and looked up in the stands. I suppose because I was one of the few people wearing a Twins shirt, he pointed at me and threw it in my direction. When I was a kid, I would have died for that to happen.
 
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A second game was at Target Field, where I probably get to games most often these days.
When by myself, I normally just get a cheap ticket and move down to an open seat over the course of the game. This time I actually found a $25 ticket for a seat in the Thrivent Deck.  That got me a padded seat, extra concession stands (with shorter lines and more food options), a concourse with greater access to restrooms and the like and the opportunity to wander through a Hall of Fame of sorts, with memorabilia ranging from Harmon Killebrew’s high school basketball uniform to the gear Joe Mauer wore for his emotional one-pitch return to the catcher spot in the final inning of his final game and lots of other stuff.
That game was topped off by crossing paths with my all-time favorite player as I was leaving. Tony Oliva is a regular at Twins games and was gracious enough to pause for a picture.
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The game I particularly looked forward to was at Royal (now called Kauffman) Stadium. My first hope in looking at the schedule was to go on July 13, but the Royals were on the road. However, I was able to go on July 24.
And here’s where it got extra cool. I wanted to recreate a picture from as close as possible to my seat from 50 years ago. When I looked for tickets, however, I discovered that the sections had been renumbered, so Section 119 was at a different location than it was in 1974.
I found an email address and sent a message to the fan relations office, asking if they had a seat map from 1974, explaining why I was looking for it. A couple days later, one of their people sent a map with the old seat numbers. He even went further, going out to take several pictures from the seat in question and sending them to me. It was indeed the general angle I remembered. When I searched for a ticket near the seat in question, I was able to find one a row behind and a seat to the side, essentially a checkerboard move from one seat to the other.
Then, the person in “my” seat went out to the concession stand just before the game started. I’d struck up a conversation with the family in that row, so I asked to hop into that seat for the opening pitch, taking things up a level. The glove is the one I had taken to the game so many years ago. The Marty Pattin autograph has long worn off.
A couple days after my first email exchange, the Royals took it even another step further in their customer relations. A department manager wrote to ask which game I would be attending and where I would be sitting, saying they wanted to bring me a gift to commemorate the day.
 
Midway through the game, what was probably an intern stopped by with a bag of goodies. She had bags to stop by other seats as well, but they had obviously raided the stash of leftover promotional items. For example, I got bobblehead was from a 2023 giveaway and the cap was what they had given to 2019 season-ticket holders. The picture frame was from when they hosted the All-Star Game in 2012. 
The best gift, however, was the t-shirt given away in 2018 to celebrate radio announcer Denny Matthews’ 50th year of broadcasting, but I’m choosing to see the 50 emblem as my own commemoration of 50 years. It’s fitting to have a broadcaster’s mic as well, since my love of baseball was incubated by listening to Twins on WHO-Des Moines.
 
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The second thing I did was put together a list of at least 50 things or memories that capture and reflect the joy I’ve experienced following baseball. Not surprisingly, I blew past that number in a short time, so I consolidated a few on the list that follows.
 
I’d welcome your commenting on any that resonate for you. Or that seem goofy enough to ask about.

1. Going to my first game in Kansas City. Dad and Mom weren’t baseball fans, but we were visiting my uncle in Kansas City, who got us the tickets.
2. Throwing a tennis ball against the side of the house for hours on end, playing imaginary games that always had the Twins winning.
3. Looking forward to Baseball Digest coming in the mail each month. Hoping each Christmas morning that one of my siblings would again renew the subscription as my present.
4. Winning the daily trivia contest on a local radio station several dozen times over a few years, getting two tickets to minor league games in Cedar Rapids each time. Cashing in the voucher for our box seat tickets, going down the steps to the concourse and then back up the steps to the seats, sometimes after turning right in the concourse to the souvenir stand, where a quarter could get the previous week’s copy of The Sporting News.
5. Going to the Rod Carew Game, a 19-12 Twins win over the White Sox in 1977, the year Carew flirted with .400 for much of the year.
6. Wearing the yellow t-shirt with my red Toughskin® jeans during Pee-Wee baseball and then the green pinstriped uniforms for Little League.
7. Being the bat boy for my brother-in-law’s slow pitch softball team, with my own team shirt with my name on the back.
8. Tying my bat on to my bike with baler twine and hooking my glove over the handlebar as I headed off to Vacation Bible School. I enjoyed the stuff we learned, but I have to acknowledge that the softball games before and after were bigger highlights.
9. My parents letting me drive six hours to a baseball game in Minnesota on my own, with my best friend and his brother. I don’t remember which summer it was and whether we were still in high school or had graduated. Going to a game while visiting the future Mrs. IT near the end of her year at Northwestern College in nearby Roseville.
10. Freezing our butts off on my first trip to Wrigley, during a May Term during college. I mean, it’s May at Wrigley — how could it not be shorts weather?
11. The community at Twins Daily, the best fan site there is for following the Twins. For being an online site, it has amazingly civil discussion (most of the time).
12. Playing fantasy baseball for 27 seasons. I don’t think I’ve finished last yet, but I haven’t won 24 of those years.
13. Going to a game with a dear friend, a loan officer, and talking just enough about his credit union so he could write it off as a business expense. Going to lunch with him just over 20 years ago to plan a weekend trip to St. Louis, Kansas City, Minnesota, Milwaukee and Wrigley, but having him not being able to go after he died so unexpectedly just a few weeks later. Taking a glove and ball to his grave when his Cubs made the World Series in 2016.
14. Not sure where to start in the list of memories related to IT Junior. Starting with teaching him the alphabet by saying that “A is for Aaron, B is for Bostock, C is for Carew,” we’ve covered a whole lot of geekiness since then.
15. Lots of memories with younger son (IT Sophomore?), including the joy of being one of his Little League coaches and sitting on a bucket as his catcher while he practiced pitching. I never caught a single inning in Pee Wee or Little League, but it was so much fun to have my own catcher’s mitt to use with him.
16. Weather — Blistering hot in St. Louis in July while taking the boys to their MLB first game at ages 6 and 3. Getting drenched during a rain delay in St. Louis on a later trip, using the giveaway insulated cooler as our “umbrella.” Blistering hot on a Saturday afternoon at Camden Yards in Baltimore. Freezing cold on a spring break trip to Chicago. Sweltering in the back of the upper deck at Wrigley. Lasting through a rain delay on a Sunday evening Twins blowout at Tiger Stadium, where the game ended with only about 100 fans in the entire outfield.
17. Ballpark nachos.
18. Served in a plastic helmet. Pretty sure that studies have shown that food is about 20 percent better when served in a plastic helmet.
19. Speaking of plastic helmets, collecting them as a high school student, wearing them all the time. I’m still not sure why they didn’t become a fashion trend.
20. Playing slow pitch softball in Iowa and Indiana, along with fast pitch in Indiana. Wow, did I stink at the latter.
21. Visiting all 30 major league stadiums. Redoing it when new stadiums opened in Atlanta and Texas. I’ve also been to 15 stadiums that have been closed. Haven’t decided how I’ll handle Sacramento next year. I’d have to count, but it’s probably about 20 minor league parks.
22. And lest 45 MLB parks seem impressive, what’s even more impressive is that Mrs. IT has been to 23 of the 30 current stadiums and a bunch of the closed ones! She doesn’t even like baseball, but it’s just one more reason why she’s a saint.
23. Putting together picture frames of pictures from all the parks, both for my office and for our home.
24. The 1987 World Series, with the Twins winning their first world championship.
25. The 1991 World Series, when the Twins won again.
26. Going to the public library to check out biographies and history books, particularly during oats combining season, when I would check out a dozen or so to read in the field while I waited for Dad to fill the hopper and be ready to dump in the wagon I was pulling. A lot of the biographies were from the adult section, and they used naughty words my parents wouldn’t have approved of.
27. Only realizing much later how much my thoughts about race were shaped by the biographies of Black and Latin players I read as a child, as they described the discrimination they faced, particularly in the minors.
28. All the Matt Christopher books I checked out from my elementary school library. And the My Secrets of Playing Baseball book by Willie Mays probably had my name on the card a dozen times.
29. Coming from school in the fall of 1973, checking the newspaper each day to see if Hank Aaron had hit another homer as he chased Babe Ruth’s record. Trying to figure out what the four columns of numbers in the box score stood for. Trying to figure out abbreviated names like “Ystrzski.”
30. Getting hooked on folk singer John McCutcheon’s music, particularly when I found there is actually someone writing intelligent songs about baseball. And then he did an entire album of baseball songs. And entire concerts of baseball songs. And I even contributed in a tiny way to his most recent song.

The Hammer - April 8, 2024.mp4 31. Listening to as many Twins games as I could as a kid, including late night games from the west coast, all on WHO-Des Moines. Getting rebooked on baseball on the radio by listening to games on MLB Audio these days.
32. Going to the Baseball Hall of Fame several times, including for Kirby Puckett’s induction. Going to an induction for what will probably be the last time when Tony Oliva was inducted. Going to a bunch of other museums as well. The best of the others is the Negro League Baseball Museum in Kansas City, but there’s also been ones for Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Bob Feller (sort of — it’s now closed).
33. Developing a friendship with an MLB player, bringing him to church twice as a youth group fundraiser. Learning more about the business side of the game from the unique perspective he provides.
34. Field of Dreams, The Natural, Bull Durham, The Sandlot, Trouble with the Curve, Moneyball, A League of Their Own and all the great baseball movies I’ve seen. Putting together an All-Star team of movie characters — Billy Chapel on the mound, Roy Hobbs in right, Crash Davis behind the plate, etc. 
 
35. Seeing Twins minor leaguer Royce Lewis interact compassionately with a bat boy with Down Syndrome. Total class.
36. The amazing speed of Byron Buxton. Joe Nathan doing his horse-like, “Pbbbbbt,” as he stood on the mound and prepared to throw a pitch.
37. All the players who gave autographs to my sons throughout the years. I always thought Nathan set the tone with Twins relief pitchers. If the leader of the pen was so willing to sign, how could the others not do the same?
38. Baseball cards — getting introduced to them by getting a pack from my brother. A pack with a Rod Carew, no less. Collecting them as a kid. Spreading them all over the floor with my best friend. Getting gifted my brother-in-law’s cards one year for Christmas. Best Christmas present ever! Knowing I traded away several Nolan Ryan and Reggie Jackson rookie cards over the years. Eventually completing the 1976 and 1979 sets, two years when I was particularly active. Recently completing a run of all of Tony Oliva’s cards, making a display in my home office.
39. Having a work travel schedule at several employers that have lent themselves to being able to tag a bunch of games on to work trips.
40. Going to the Field of Dreams movie site several times, playing catch with IT Sophomore, but also with a bunch of people I’ll never know.
41. Baseball-reference.com. Enough said.
42. Going to the Society for American Baseball Research annual conference. Twice.
43. Ballparks — practically the only time I eat peanuts in the shell. Other than when I go to Five Guys.
44. Touring a bunch of parks over the years, including standing atop the Green Monster.
45. Covering plenty of games as a newspaper reporter or sports information director, including games in several minor league parks and a couple of states and games with a future NFL player. Interviewing a couple of major leaguers who were on minor league rehab assignments.
46. Getting to throw out the first pitch at a high school game, to the young man in my church who I serve as a mentor for.
47. Keeping score. Seeing the passion IT Junior has for doing the same. Occasionally sending scoring questions to Stew Thornley, whom I’ve gotten to know through a unique set of circumstances.
48. Having the goofy dream of retiring to Rochester, Minn., spending my evenings selling Diet Coke in the bleachers at Target Field. Probably won’t happen.
49. Having baseball as part of my end-of-life plan. Seriously. I’ve told Mrs. IT and the boys that baseball enjoyment is one of my measures of incapacity. If there’s no likelihood that I’ll ever be able to sense/experience a baseball again, that’s one indicator that it’s okay to pull the plug.
50. When asked how she feels about going to all these games, hearing Mrs. IT say, “I don’t like baseball, but I like some people who like baseball.” See saint reference above. That statement has taught me so much about marriage.
 
(If you’ve made it through all this, thanks for indulging me.)
 

... and why is he on the 40 man roster over Kala'i Rosario?
Granted Rosario is by no means a cant miss prospect, and there is a possibility that he will not be claimed in the Rule 5 draft,  Why the heck do you send him to AFL  and then not protect him?
With no disrespect to Helman...
Helman is 28 tears old,  will not crack opening day roster when we have Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, and even Austin Martin? and if you believe reports of us being linked to Tyler Oniel there is no immediate need, and at 28 he is not the future.  By mid year Emmanual Rodriguez coudl be ready, and by next year Walker Jenkins, again confirming there is not a need for a 28 year old as part of the future.
And again while being drafted in Rule 5 is no guarantee, after playing in 67 games at AA last year, and in the AFL the last 2 years he is definitley in the window of possibility!!  and we risk that for Helman?

By now I'd imagine all of you know who David Festa is, top pitching prospect last year who got called up mid-season to fill the void Chris Paddack left after having yet another season ending injury. His results were middling and some of his underlying metrics don't impress but I'm here to convince you to buy in on a breakout next year (hence the article's name) so let's get right into it! Starting off, Festa's whopping 31.7% chase rate, 28.2% whiff rate and 27.8 K% all are well above league average bordering on elite, now why is he getting this crazy kind of chase and whiff rates? Well dear viewer, it all comes down to the pitch mix and Festa's certainly is set to impress. Festa relies on a 3 pitch mix, Fastball-Slider-Changeup in order from most to least used, a deceivingly simple set of offerings that when you dive into it there's a lot to love.
Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway% 2024 Four Seamer 442 242 200 40.2 94.7 93 79 24 13 7 0 4 23 56 .304 .274 .544 .505 .410 .384 91.3 18 2349 7.0 18.9 21.3 2024 Slider 349 244 105 31.8 86.1 97 92 19 13 3 2 1 26 66 .207 .243 .315 .399 .246 .294 90.2 13 2564 6.8 29.1 20.2 2024 Changeup 308 116 192 28.0 88.4 87 80 19 10 4 1 4 28 53 .238 .211 .463 .332 .319 .263 85.9 13 1839 6.8 39.4 23.0 Displayed above is the pitch tracking data for Festa's 2024 season (praise be to Baseball Savant), if you look at pitch velocity or induced break (image attached) Festa's offerings look pretty average, but look to the Changeup and Slider's whiff rate. 39.4% and 29.1% is absolutely nuts and while the Changeup was hit hard on the very rare occasion someone put their bat to it those two pitches have been amazing at generating swing and miss leading to the really impressive strikeout numbers. The Fastball grades out well with above average ride but has been hit pretty hard and has by far been his least effective pitch so far, Festa's biggest issue though throughout his career has always been the control leading to too many walks and ballooning pitch counts, but I'm happy to report that this issue has gradually been decreasing across his time in the Twins organization to the point he was about league average in walks during his time with the Twins this season
Year Lg IP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 2021 Rk,A 8.1 0.840 3.2 0.0 4.3 13.0 3.00 2022 A+,A 103.2 1.090 6.9 0.5 3.0 9.4 3.18 2023 AA,AAA 92.1 1.386 8.4 0.9 4.1 11.6 2.83 2024 AAA 60.1 1.359 8.4 1.3 3.9 13.3 3.42 2024 AL 64.1 1.321 8.7 1.3 3.2 10.8 3.35 Now looking Festa's rate stats since he was drafted we see that his BB/9 and WHIP have gradually decreased (with a low spike in his breakout 2022) while strikeouts have been steadily climbing, all this is a recipe for success and as long as he can continue to reign in the control of his pitches more and continue to generate the swing and miss he has year after year.
Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA 2024 36.6 25.1 29.7 8.6 40.0 37.1 22.9 4.0 28.0 25.1 26.9 7.4 8.6 5.4 MLB 44.4 23.8 24.7 7.1 37.2 37.5 25.2 3.9 32.6 24.8 24.4 5.9 7.0 4.8 Now it would be unfair of me to not talk about the issues with the long ball Festa has had to contend with in 2024. As you can see in the table above Festa is most definitely a fly ball pitcher (as are many of the Twins rotation) and that means when he gets hit hard, it can do big damage. Festa gave up more solid contact and barrels than average and that's definitely been a problem with his HR/9 jumping from .9 in 2023 to 1.3 through 2024 (across both MLB and AAA). However with the ability to miss bats and generate chases as much as Festa has this problem can be minimized, especially with an even small jump in control to help prevent his Fastball from being either really hittable or too far out of the zone.
 
All in all while Festa has shown some signs for concern there's so many of the building blocks of a top end starter there that I'm 100% on the hype train, and I hope I was able to convince you to have a bit of hope that the mythical Falvey pitching pipeline is finally bearing the fruit we all dreamed of back in 2016

Where's the game thread for our AFL team today?  Guess I have to start my own. 
J/K.  Here's a photo though. 

That's Kala'i Rosario in RF in case you can't tell.  😊  Had a good time watching a bad, sloppy game last night, with USAF Chief.
/ edit - and that's Rosario with a HR swing in the 5th in the cover photo 
 

Bailey 7 IP  1 hit 0 walks 7K 83 pitches.
 
Hey here is an idea, lets pull him after retiring 15 straight batters, absolutely rolling (throwing a potential Maddux) and lets replace him with Duran who struggle sin the 8th.
Seriously?

Throughout the 2024 season, the Twins have received contributions from several young players, the most unlikely of whom has been Zebby Matthews. The Twins selected the 24-year-old righthander out of Western Carolina University in the eighth round of the 2022 MLB Draft. During his first full season in the minor leagues, Zebby threw 105.1 innings, striking out 112, walking 15, and finishing the season with a 3.84 ERA. The Twins’ front office then tweaked his mechanics, as they have done to other tall, righthanded mid-round draft picks like Baily Ober, Louie Varland, David Festa, and Joe Ryan. 
Zebby Matthews started the 2024 season with the Twins’ high-A affiliate. He pitched in just four games for the Kernels, going 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA while striking out 28 batters without walking anyone across 22.2 innings. The Twins quickly moved Zebby to AA, where he continued to dominate. Through 55.1 innings, he had a 1.95 ERA with a 63:6 K: BB ratio. Then, after his promotion to AAA, he struggled for the first time in his professional career.  He had a 5.68 ERA (over 19 innings), but he struck out 23 batters while walking only one. Zebby’s stats across all levels of the 2024 season are unbelievable:  He’s thrown 97 innings, striking out 114 batters and walking only 7. Seven!  His incredible command of the strike zone, mixed with improved velocity and spin rates, led to a 2.60 ERA and a 0.866 WHIP. 
Despite the rough patches at AAA, injuries to Joe Ryan and Chris Paddock forced the Twins to call Zebby to the big leagues. He answered that call, as he looked much more experienced than a player with just two minor-league seasons. He took the mound in a pivotal game against the Royals and outdueled Cy Young candidate Seth Lugo while the offense took care of the rest. Matthews threw five innings, giving up two earned runs on five hits, striking out five, and, not surprisingly, walking no one. Of his 77 pitches, he threw 38 fastballs (averaging 95 mph), 16 sliders, 15 cutters, four curveballs, and four change-ups. He threw 49 strikes with a whiff rate of 18% and a chase rate of 26%. His one mistake of the night came on a cutter, which MJ Melendez sent over the wall in right-center. 
Zebby Matthews pitched well. The Twins could not have asked for more from an inexperienced rookie who started the year in high-A. He took the mound during a playoff race against an inner-division rival, and he overshadowed one of this season’s best pitchers. This should give the Twins some optimism - his performance will likely earn him an extended look in the big leagues during the rest of the season. Zebby is a big part of the Twins’ future, but a solid stretch to end the season could earn him a spot on a potential playoff roster, whether as a starter or out of the bullpen. 




 

What is an “Ace”?

There is no accepted definition for a pitcher earning the moniker “ace” which leads to all kind of friendly to less friendly debates when the declaration pitcher A is or is not an “ace.”

For me, an ace pitcher needs to have a few things on their resume.
1. An ERA of 3.39 or lower or a combination of history and FIP/SIERA/xFIP which suggests their ERA should be in that category
2. Long streaks of starts with 5.0+ (usually 6.0+) innings and ERA’s under 4.00 in those starts. We’re talking a bare minimum of 4, but often 5 or 6+ games in a row.
3. A pattern of starts which suggests the long streaks are earned by seeing consistent starts with FIPs below 4.00.

The basic gist is a pitcher where you don’t hope they pitch well, you just expect it’s a near automatic win when they start for you. A pitcher you have confidence to deliver a great start against whatever team or opposing pitcher they start against.

Item’s #2 and #3 separate “aces” from pitchers who’ve been lucky over a few starts or are up and down where you don’t really know what to expect from them on the mound. Jose Berrios was never an ace in my book. At his peak, he was a back end #2 or high end #3, but his bonus was just how much of a work horse he really was. He’d generally go 3 starts between hiccups like a typical mid rotation guy. Again, it’s the difference between expectation and hope.

Taking a look at the top 5 fWAR starting pitchers with 70+ innings (gets us to 128 total) this season and compare them to the Twins’ starters, you can see clear distinctions between what I consider to be an “ace” level pitcher, and our rotation. Ober has been the best starter for the Twins this year, but it’s clear he’s in a different class than the “aces.” I’ve also added trade interest kind of guys. Fedde, Flaherty, Kikuchi, Eflin, Eovaldi, Sears, Rogers, Lorenzen and Berrios' 2021 to the mix for comparisons. Berrios was that borderline #2 guy. He mostly pitched well enough to deserve a #2 monkier, but the results weren't quite up to how consistent he needed to be on the mound.




QS2 is my definition of a qualified start. 5.0+ innings pitched, ERA of 3.99 or lower. If a pitcher leaves the game with an ERA under 4.00, there's a good chance their team only needs to score 4 runs to win the game, and that should happen well over 50% of the time. If they leave the game with an ERA of 4.00 or higher, there's a good chance their team will need to score 5 runs or more to win the game, and that has a dramatic impact on likelihood of a win. Every run allowed by a team between 0 and 5 causes a major shift in likelihood of winning, and that's just a fact. Allowing more than 5, well, the odds shift less and less because you're already hosed if you have to ask your offense to put up more than 6.
FIP2 is the same, but an FIP of 3.99 or lower
Max Streak is the number of starts in a row where the pitcher manages a QS2
Streaks 4+ is how many of those 4 game streaks the pitcher has put together this year

Some guidelines you'll probably start recognizing if you look at pitchers in this way
70%+ on the QS2/FIP2 with 5+ game streaks is about the land of the ace.
60-70% is the land of the #2 with 4 game streaks
50-60% is the land of the #3 with 3 game streaks
--------------------------------------------------------------------
below the line are not really playoff caliber starters. They're guys who might get a start, but not guys you want starting a pivotable game.
40-50% is the land of the #4 with less than 3 game streaks
39% and lower is the land of the #5 with less than 3 game streaks

Bailey Ober has been the best pitcher on the Twins this year, but he's a clear gap away from the land of ace pitchers. He's probably in the #2 starter category right now, really pitching well. Lopez is next in line, but he honestly falls into the #3 bracket so far this year as he hasn't been consistent enough yet. Hopefully, he's better in the second half. The Twins really need him to step it up. Joe Ryan has consistently performed under his FIP, and he hasn't been reliable when it comes to putting up my definition of a quality start. He's pretty similar to 2021 Jose Berrios, though a bit less reliable. Borderline in the #3 category, I'd say. SWR is a bit of an oddball. Totally unreliable with good start, bad start, good start, bad start. No idea what you're getting with him, right on the border of #3-4 for me. Paddack falls into the #5 rotation arm category. The 35% FIP2% is just too bold to ignore. All in all, I'd say the Twins have a mismatch at the top of the rotation against other playoff teams, but we're deep with quality starters after that. Lopez and Ober are the key to the Twins playoff rotation. If Ober can keep it up and Lopez can pick it up, we may roll into the playoffs with 2 #2 guys, and a solid #3. Not quite where you'd like to be, but competitive.  If Lopez sticks where he's at, the Twins will likely be at a clear disadvantage in the first 2 starts for the series, and potentially the 3rd.

If the Twins' bats can bail them out in game 1 of a playoff series, I like the Twins' chances against almost any other team. If the opponent's ace skunks us out of the gate like Wheeler or Skubal did recently, we're going to have a real tough row to hoe coming back IMHO.

We all know Rocco is costing the Twins a chance for a win, every time he fills out the lineup card or comes out to make a pitching change.  And don't get me started on his pinch-hitting choices.  So, put a number on it. How many needless losses are on Rocco, so far this season?

We are closing in on Trade deadline season, that time when we all can fantasize about trading mid-level prospects for other team's stars. Before we get there though, we need to decide what this team actually needs and evaluate whether there are in-house options that can fill the bill. Trading at the deadline is always high-risk and very expensive in terms of prospects. It always cost more than you think to get another teams solid, mid-level veteran and they're often on expiring contracts making them mere short term rentals.
What Do We Need?
I think our needs are pretty straightforward. We have a pretty good rotation that lacks backend depth, about 75% of a good bullpen, and about 80% of a strong lineup that could really use another middle of the order bat or leadoff hitter. An addition in each of those areas be great. It would be helpful if the starter was left-handed, the reliever a viable seventh or eighth inning option, and if the hitter could play 2B or corner OF. I say the latter on the assumption that if we could bring up a hitter that can play well at second base, Willi Castro could be an everyday corner OF. He is actually pretty good out there in the field.
Who Should We Try In-House?
I actually think we may have solutions to all three spots presently on our AAA club. Looking at them from most likely to fill in house to least likely, at least in my view:
Let's start with the hitter. Brooks Lee has been tearing up AAA since he came off the injured list - .367/.421/.561 (.982), with 4 HRs, 7 Doubles, and 9 walks against only 14 strikeouts in 107  PAs, 98 ABs. Published reports say that he had basically made the team out of Spring Training before his back seized up so he must've held his own against major league pitching, at least this spring. He could come up and be an everyday 2B and our primary backup SS, with Castro moving to basically an everyday job in LF. We could create space for him by either putting Kepler on the IL to give Lee a try, shutting down Larnach through the ASB so he can actually recover from the turf toe problem, or parting ways with Farmer through a trade or DFA. Also, another injury opens the spot. This run of good health won't last forever.
I don't think that Matt Wallner is likely to be the answer, at least not now. He is absolutely hitting better at AAA than he was but he has 86 strikeouts in 250 AAA at bats, an almost 33% strikeout rate at the AAA level. Over the last two seasons he has struck out 97 times in 269 plate appearances at the MLB level, an over 36% rate. I think you have to wait until the strikeout rate goes down in AAA to at least around 25% before you can give Wallner another shot, especially when you remember how bad he was in the playoffs, how bad he was in Spring Training, and how horrendous his line was at the MLB level to start the season (.080/.273/.240 (.513)) before he was sent down. I believe in Wallner as a future solid MLB player but I do not think he is a short-term solution and probably not a solution for this season IMHO.
Bullpen help? I think the answer is actually pretty obvious - Louie Varland. I understand why they keep him stretched out at the AAA level as rotation depth. I do think there's a way to do that at the MLB level by having him pitch some long relief like he did last week against Oakland. If the need arises for him to become a starter, you can start with having him as the "bulk" pitcher on the bullpen day and slowly build him back up. At this point, the best we can hope for from him as a starter at the MLB level is a series of 5 or 6 inning starts and his track record this year suggests an ERA over 5. I don't think he's the answer for the rotation help. I know he's trying to learn a changeup so he can be an MLB starter. He can do that in the off-season and next year's spring training so he can help the Twins now. I would call him up now and put him in the bullpen while telling him that they'll stretch him out and give them another chance as a starter next year. Again, putting him on the roster shouldn't be too hard considering how bad Thielbar is pitching which suggests an injury that should result in an IL stint through the ASB. He could also come up and take Cole Sands place. Once again, any sort of injury would provide the opening.
How about the rotation? That may be a toughest one of all. I don't think Louie Varland is the answer. Festa might be and Boushley could be the kind of guy who has that one great career year and we catch lightning in a bottle. If either one can come up and give us some innings with an ERA even the 4.5 – 5 range, that would be perfectly okay for a number 5 starter. I just read that even Paddack thinks he needs a break as he comes back from a second TJ surgery. Now is the time. Put Paddack on the 15 day IL through the ASB and call up Festa (my choice) or Boushley. Give him three starts before the ASB and see what you have. Only way to know if we need to trade for a starter. 
What To Do and When
I think we need to try our in-house options before this FO gets fleeced again at the trade deadline for a mediocre veteran or a pitcher with arm trouble. To me, the moves are pretty clear and the time to make those moves is NOW, not two weeks from now, NOW. Let's give ourselves a chance to really evaluate these guys so a month from now we know whether there's any chance that any of our in-house options can work, whether we need to be out in the trade market,  or whether we should just decide that this isn't our year to do much more than sneak into the playoffs and get bounced early.
In sum, here are the moves to make:
Brooks Lee up, either Kepler or Larnach to the IL (or, if possible, a trade of Farmer)
Louie Varland up for the bullpen, Thielbar to the 15 day IL
David Festa up, Paddack to the 15 day IL
I would make the move with  Lee today on an off day so he is available in Arizona. I would bring up Festa for Thursday's start place of Paddack, and would Il Thielbar later this week to bring up Varland since Louie just pitched and got blown out yesterday. Varland's probably not available till at least Wednesday or Thursday. The latest I would make these moves is next Monday when we return from this road trip but I think that is too close to the ASB to be helpful.
What you guys think of these moves? Are there others that should be made in addition or instead of these? Inquiring minds want to know your thoughts . . .

I am not sure if there is anything serious with the Kepler injury, but now is the time to make a move.
The Twins schedule has them playing NOBODY over .500 until after the Allstar break!! Now is the time to call up Wallner and Lee, let them continue their string recent offensive surges against AAAA competition to build confidence for the second half.
DFA Farmer, there really is ZERO reason he is still on this club!!  I have hear the veteran presence in clubhouse thing, but we still have Correa, we still have Santana, while he hasnt enjoyed great success we still have Buxton, and who cares about veteran presence with young leadership skills of Lewis. He needs to be gone. plug Brooks Lee into 2B. Use Castro as the super utility guy.
While Kepler hasn't been HORRIBLE, he is obviously no longer a part of our long term future. Best case is he has a minor neck tweak that a IL stint coudl help, this would allow us to bring up Wallner for lightning in a bottle. If he continues hot streak then RF is his, if he flounders then we can go back to Kepler on his return.
While Wallner is tearing it up, he is still striking out about 1/3 of his AB's. against AAA pitching, so if he comes up and continues with the high level K's (and dosent bring power along with it) then as mentioned after DL stint you go back to Kepler.
 
But if ...  IF... Wallner and Lee can bring their potential, and you put them in a lineup with Correa, Lewis,  the resurgent Miranda (.284 avg  & .844 over last 30 games) and the coming around Santana (.305 avg & .920 OPS over last 30 games) now we have a pretty potent lineup.

The Athletic just published an article about "FIve Trades I'd Like To See" before the MLB trade deadline. One of them involved the Twins trading for Pete Alonso:
Twins get: Pete Alonso
Mets get: Alex Kirilloff, David Festa, Luke Keaschall
I for one would be very irritated if the Twins made this trade. Let's start with what we get. Pete Alonso is a great hitter and would be a great fit in the middle of our lineup for the next two or three months. After that, he is going to a high revenue team for 2025 and beyond, most likely returning to the Mets. He likes it there, he likes New York, and it's only a matter of whether they will pony up the money. If the Mets won't pony up the money, another East Coast team will. I have to think the Yankees are looking for a first basemen for next season given Anthony Rizzo's struggles. Alonso is the very definition of a short term one season rental. And that's before we think about whether ownership would be willing to part with the about $8 million he still owed for the rest of the 2024 season.
Now let's think about what we would give up. I am down on Kirilloff as are many others, but he still has high end upside. I wouldn't mind using him as part of a trade given his redundancy with Larnach and Wallner (I think Miranda has won the first base job starting next season unless he falls off the table), but not when you have to give up two quality pieces to go with him. Festa is probably our best starting pitching prospect and certainly the one closest to the Majors. Keaschall is only 21 and looks to have some real upside in the middle infield. That's important when we remember that Correa is only going to be the starting SS for another 3-4 years, when he will age out. Lewis' knee injuries probably leave him at 3B for the foreseeable future. Lee or Keaschall may be the Shortstop starting in 2026 or 2027. Way too big a package for two or three months of Pete Alonso, way too much. I might give up one of the three as long as it wasn't Festa plus a less heralded prospect or two like Schobel or Rosario, but not the three listed. 
My conclusion is this is classic clickbait from a New York homer wanting to improve his team. What say each of you?

With the recent good news that Royce Lewis it's just about ready to start an assumedly short rehab assignment, one's mind turns to what happens when he's ready to rejoin the Twins. You have to think that he'll be playing 3B at least three or four times a week and probably more, and we have Castro as a potential 3B backup. What happens to José Miranda in that scenario?
First, the facts. Miranda is hitting .276/.315/.457 (.772) with 4 HRs, 7 Doubles, and 12 RBIs in 105 ABs. He has 16 SOs and 4 walks, (14.5% SO rate, 3.7% walk rate). He's better against LH pitching – .807 OPS – but still respectable against RH pitching with a .722 OPS. His defense at 3B, once a weakness, has improved to a little below average average, with a -2 OAA at 3B and a 0 OAA at 1B. His Statcast chart is not particularly impressive, above average in some things but very little red other than being on the 74th percentile in whiff rate in the 89th percentile in strikeout rate. In other words, the stats so far indicate a little better-than-average player at age 25 with about 750 at bats in MLB so far. Those latter two facts suggest that there is room for improvement to a solidly above average hitter who is an average or slightly above fielder, but those results are far from assured.
I think the Twins have to keep Miranda on the roster and I think he needs to play. His team needs quality RH hitters in the worst way, and Miranda is really the only reinforcement option. Lewis can obviously hit, Correa is a quality hitter, and both Buxton and Jeffers are streaky. The rest of them? Not much there. Margot and Vasquez are well below average hitters even if you only count Margot hitting from the right side. Santana can hit right-handed but is a black hole left-handed, and from a hitting standpoint should only start against left-handed pitching. Farmer can hit left-handed pitching or at least could in the past but he's nearing the end of his career and it's unlikely he's going to have a big pop during this season. he's also somewhere else next year. I think you have to keep Miranda around for his bat and hope his defense improves.
So where do you play him once Lewis is back to play 3B? I think the answer is pretty simple. Miranda plays 4 to 5 days a week, 3 to 4 of them as the 1B against right-handed pitching, a day or two at 3B for Lewis when he is the DH, and he can be the DH once a week, maybe twice. I would also look at him at 2B as the RH alternative to Edward Julien unless Rocco comes to his senses and starts playing Julien every day. Miranda was a 2B in the minors, he's here for the long term, and he's a better hitter than Farmer. I would suggest trying him in LF, but I know they did that in the minors and I hear it was an unmitigated disaster. So my view is Miranda needs to stay, play regularly, and do it in a combination of 1B and 3B. 
This decision is coming in is coming within the next couple weeks hopefully. What he is everybody think?

Is Twins' sausage magical? Short answer, No. So why the Twins' turnaround? Let's look at what led up to the winning streak.
Shortly after the '23 season, Falvey credited the "all or nothing" approach for the team's success. BTW it has been the Twins' hitting approach since '19. During the off-season, Baldelli was questioned about their hitters' SO record. He responded with "SOs are not important and they weren't changing anything". Spring training, "all or nothing" was implemented again with poor results. Twins started '24 with 2 wins against a promising KC team, Lewis's injury, later followed by Correa's. Without Lewis & Correa (archetype to Twins hitting philosophy & best hitters) & the league adjusting; the losses & SOs started to pile up w/o the HRs. The turnaround started with the revelation that the "all or nothing" wasn't working. Baldelli stated that they had changed to a more balanced approach. Kiriloff, Martin & Miranda were hitting, Larnach & Kepler returned from the IL with a revamped swing, one by one they started to hit. In the middle of all that the winning streak started before the rally sausage appeared.
Does the rally sausage have anything to do with the streak? Yes, because even with the right approach the pressure to hit was still there. The sausage joke brought levity to the dugout, being more relaxed the hitter could execute. As heart-breaking it was to lose Lewis, it turned out to be a blessing disguised because the following slump opened the eyes of management. IMO we have a great lineup & see no need to try to go outside to change it. Our problem at the beginning of the season wasn't the lineup but the approach & we can't get distracted from that fact with the rally sausage. While I encourage to ride the rally sausage as long as we can, IMO using it as a HR trophy is in bad taste.

OK, first off, yes I am old school.  I HATE platooning, and what I hate even more is strictly pinch hitting RH for LH, especially young players.  How the heck is a lefty gonna learn how to hit a lefty if never given the chance???  And what makes no sense to me even MORE is pinch hitting in the 6th inning or earlier!!!
I wish there was some smart analytics guy out there who coudl run stats and prove me either right or wrong.  even if proven right I HATE managing purely by analytics.
 
But anyone who has watched the Twins can probably guess that I am talking about the obsession with pinch hitting for Wallner.
YES he is horrid against lefties, but is pinch hitting Manuel Margot for Wallner... IN THE 6TH INNING any better?  You cannot take just the current AB into account, you have to take into account future ABs.
First, why would you pinch hit Margot for Wallner? Well on the surface Margot has a .281 avg a .341 OBP and .760 OPS to go along with a 109 WRC+ against lefites.
Wallner?  oh a just touch worse at .119 avg .188 OBP and a .442 OPS to go along with an unsightly 21 WRC+.
CLEARLY pinch hitting Margot was the right decision right????  NO!!
This was the 6th inning, which means you are GUARANTEED to have Wallners spot come up again later in the game no matter what happens.(not to mention if it would go to extras) What are teh chances that Wallner would be facing another LHP in his next AB?  lets go ahead and put that one at 0.00%. Why??? Because Herrin is the ONLY LH reliever on the Cleveland roster!!!  SO now  you have to factor in the GUARANTEED matchup of either/both Margot and Wallner when facing RHP to determine the overall probable success rate.  but first let's go back to the Pinch hitting scenario in the 6th.
Wallner is pinch hit for with 2 outs and nobody on.  Now the expected Probability of scoring a run with 2 outs an nobody on is 4.48% (just did a Google).  So even if Wallner strikeouts out there, there is still a 95% probability that we would score the same amount of runs leaving Wallner in there as we would when pinch hitting Margot.  So here is the first analytic data point showing it was a HORRIBLE (yet sadly predictable) move. Now if there was a runner in scoring position, and all we needed was a single, or even extend the inning with a walk, then it could make sense, as Margot's average is 162 points higher than Wallners against lefties.  But again we did not, we needed either a HR, or multiple productive plate appearances in a row to score.  again only 4.48% scoring probability.
SO we are at neutral AT BEST for that pinch hitting situation in a vacuum, now lets take into account at least one (possibly more should the possibility of extra innings come in to play).
What are each of their numbers against RHP in their careers?
Margot = .244 avg  .294 OBP .663 OPS and a 81 WRC+.   SO not overly good.
Wallner = .274 avg  .401 OBP  .935 OPS  with a 161 WRC+.  Basically pretty darn good!!!
Of course since we would not know at the time what the situation of the next AB is (except we ae guaranteed a RHP) so we cannot say what would be needed the most, but by ANY metric, Wallner is the CLEAR preferred batter!!!
need a base hit? Wallner 30 points higher.   Need a walk? Wallner 107 points higher OBP. Need an extra base hit? Wallner 272 point higher OPS.
in actuality (which you cant take later results into consideration when making a decision, but as it turns out it would have been even MORE advantageous to have had Wallner in in the 8th).
That next AB turned out to be with Correa on 2nd and 1 out..  (as it turns out a runner on 2nd with 1 out you score at least 1 run  41.4% ot the time so you would have had a better chance to get the better probability of scoring a run with Wallner than Margot, but again that is in retrospect).
 
Bottom line... HORRIBLE move to pinch hit Manuel Margot for Wallner in the 6th inning with 2 out and nobody on against a team that has no other LHP to use against us in later innings.
 
It is not only the wrong managerial decision, but it is painfully horrible baseball to watch.
 
Now I will go back to yelling at clouds and shooing kids off my lawn.

Louis Varland just went four innings, one hit, in his last spring training start. He has gone 11 innings in 4 appearances, 3 starts, and is given up a total of six hits and no runs. He's got 11 strikeouts, one walk, a spring training WHIP of 0.64, and an ERA of 0.00. I know spring training statistics are not necessarily predictive but you do have to ask yourself what a guy has to do to make the team. His primary competition, Anthony DeSclafani, has yet to pitch an inning in spring training. He is allegedly "ramping up" his bullpens but that's as far as he's gotten given what I think was shoulder pain (may have been elbow or forearm) at the beginning of spring training. You have to think that Varland has won a spot in the starting rotation with his performance.
Prediction: DeSclafani opens up the season on the Injured List. Varland opens up the season as the fifth starter and the Twins have all five starters pitching. There are no skipped starts due to off days. DeSclafani comes off the IL in 10 days, and then goes to AAA for the full 20 day rehab period to build up innings. At that point, there is a decision to be made but past history tells us that someone will be ineffective or need an IL stint to give DeSclafani a spot. It may be a bullpen spot if all of the starters are pitching well but I suspect there will be a spot. What do you guys think?
Question: Given DeSclafani's issues in spring training, he me need a longer Il stint than 10 days but probably doesn't need the full 60 days. Is there another option? Alternatively, if the only choices are a 10 day or 60 day IL designation, if we put him on the 60 day list can he come back sooner and pitch in the minors? In other words, could he be put on the 60 day list and thus off the 40 man roster, but come back to AAA in say 30 days and spend a month building back up? I know a lot of you guys know the rules really well so I'm curious because that seems to me to be the smart move. He's then ready around June 1 and by then we will be in need of another starter if for no other reason than Paddack will need a break. More likely, one of the top five will either be hurt or ineffective. Anybody know the answer?

A lot has been said about the Twins’ offseason, especially regarding comments made by members of ownership and those in baseball operations about the payroll decreasing.
 Some frustration, on one hand, is warranted considering the optics that inevitably surround explicitly telling fans that payroll will decrease immediately after the most successful season in the past 20 years. However, with how the roster is constructed, spending a lot of money in free agency never seemed likely. The Twins have a lot of young talent under team control for a significant amount of time, including the likes of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Jhoan Duran just to name a few. Having that level of talent making pre-arbitration or arbitration one numbers is just naturally conducive to having a lower payroll, and it never made sense to spend for players to play positions that are already filled with those young talents. That being said, there is some room for spending during the 2024 offseason. So, let’s go back in time to November 2nd, 2023, and re-do the Twins’ Offseason.
I am going to constrain myself to some rules for this thought exercise. The first rule is that I am going to be as realistic as possible so unfortunately, Shohei Ohtani: you are not a Twin. My second rule is that for any players that have already been signed, I will be using their real-world contracts here. For example, the San Francisco Giants signed outfielder Jorge Soler to a 3-year, $42 million contract. Therefore, if I were to sign him to the Twins, it would have to be for 3 years and $42 million. This, again, is to ensure as much realism as possible for my exercise. With that out of the way, let’s get started.
1.   LHP Shōta Imanaga (4-Years, $53 Million)
     With Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda both being free agents, the Twins have a need to fill in the rotation. In 2023, Sonny and Kenta contributed 6.8 fWAR to the team. Maeda’s 1.5 fWAR contribution can be replaced in-house by Chris Paddack’s full return to the rotation. FanGraphs’ projections system projects the 50th percentile outcome for Paddack’s 2024 to be worth about 2.1 fWAR. That still leaves 4.7 fWAR to be replaced. Another portion of that will be filled by the progression in the young careers of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as they (hopefully) have healthier and better seasons when they enter their 3rd full year of service time. That still leaves room to fill with an outside addition, because resigning Sonny Gray never made sense as Sonny Gray himself is unlikely to replicate his 2023 season and giving 2024 Sonny Gray 3 years and $75 million never made sense due to the very likely regression of the aging pitcher. This was made more apparent by the disparity between his expected 2023 ERA, which was calculated by Statcast using his batted ball data, falling at 3.66, and his actual 2.79 ERA. While trading for a starting pitcher with control makes the most sense, teams with starters to move like Milwaukee and Miami seem unlikely to move anyone.
     This brings us to Shōta Imanaga, the 30-year-old left-hander out of NPB’s Yokohama Baystars. The 5 '10 pitcher pitched to a 2.80 ERA in 148 IP while pitching to a 10.9 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in NPB action. He led World Baseball Classic pitchers in Stuff+, a measurement of the movement and velocity of pitchers. This was off the back of his 4-Seam Fastball that, while it sits in the low 90s, has nearly 20 inches of induced vertical break, meaning most batters swing under the pitch expecting it to drop more than it does. To compare, Joe Ryan’s fastball averages 17 inches of induced vertical break, helping him strike out an absurd 29.3% of his batters faced. Imanaga profiles to have a fastball with a very similar effect, while also having better control than Ryan does with his fastball. Imanaga backs up his fastball with a very versatile arsenal, common for Japanese pitchers. He also throws a sweeper, a traditional slider, a splitter, and throws in a curveball, cutter, and changeup for fun. The Japanese pitcher’s fastball-slider combo is something that the Twins have valued in their pitchers and would allow him to fit right into the Twins’ rotation. In real life, Imanaga signed with the Chicago Cubs for 4-years and $53 million with player options in 2026 and 2027 and a club option in 2028, bringing the total potential value of the deal to $80 million, something the Twins could afford, especially with the year-to-year flexibility this contract gives the player and team.
     Some would point to the Twins’ failure in previous NPB dealings such as Tsuyoshi Nishioka as a reason the Twins should be hesitant to sign NPB talent. However, pitchers transitioning from NPB to MLB have a much better track record than hitters such as Nishioka. The current Falvey-led front office is also radically different from the Terry Ryan-led regime that last gave contracts to NPB talent. Shōta Imanaga looks to be a very good starting pitcher in MLB and one that could absolutely contribute to the Minnesota Twins’ rotation.
2.   1B Rhys Hoskins (2- Years, $34 million)
     Perhaps the Twins’ biggest holes throughout the 2023 season was their weaknesses against left-handed pitching and an inability to get consistent value out of their first basemen. The Twins hit a league average 100 WRC+ against LHP compared to a 111 WRC+ against RHP, ranked 5th in MLB. While Alex Kirilloff had a good 2023, he also showcased an inability to hit left-handed pitching, and his health remains a question. After missing most of 2023, Jose Miranda also needs to reestablish himself as a viable option for the Twins. A great way to kill both of those birds would be to sign the former Phillies’ first baseman: Rhys Hoskins. Though Hoskins missed all of the 2023 season after tearing his ACL in Spring Training, he had a potent 2022 where he hit a .794 OPS (123 OPS+) with 30 home runs. Importantly, he had a .945 OPS (163 OPS+) in 174 PAs against left-handed hitting. While Hoskins’ defense is not very good, posting -6 Outs Above Average in 2022, however, 1B is the least significant defensive position. As long as whoever plays there can catch a seed from Carlos Correa, it’ll do.
     In real life, the slugger signed with the Milwaukee Brewers for two years and $34 million. The deal includes an opt-out after the first year, as well as a mutual option for a third year that would raise the total value to $48 million. A right-handed hitter was the Twins’ biggest need going into this offseason, and with that price and fit, Rhys Hoskins is likely the best option the Twins could have had.
     This is the one that gets to me personally; if Rhys had any interest in playing for the Twins with the same price and contract structure, that is a deal that the front office should absolutely have pounced on and one that the Twins could end up regretting.
3.   What I’d Keep
     The Twins did work to improve the roster in real life, and there is plenty that I would replicate in this scenario. The Twins project to have one of the strongest bullpens in all of baseball for 2024, much of which is thanks to moves made this offseason.
     In this universe, I would replicate the Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon trades, Although these two were fan favorites, they unfortunately did not have guaranteed roles on the 2024 roster with the emergence of Edouard Julien and Willi Castro. The combined return of Justin Topa, Anthony DeSclafani, Steven Okert as well as borderline top-100 prospect Gabriel Gonzalez do enough to improve the bullpen, depth, and farm system to justify moving Polanco and Gordon to Seattle and Miami respectively.
     The other move I would replicate is the Jay Jackson signing. Jay Jackson is an intriguing arm with a plus slider and fastball. He was signed for 1 year and $1.3 million with a club option that can raise the total value to 2 years and $5.45 million. For that low of a price, there is very little that can happen that can cause the Twins to regret this move.
     As Rhys Hoskins is a Twin in this alternate universe, there is no role for Carlos Santana to be on the roster, so that deal won’t be replicated.
 
For the first year in what feels like forever, the Twins came into the off-season looking very competitive and only requiring tweaks to the roster to be able to continue to compete. With the additions of Shōta Imanaga and Rhys Hoskins, the Twins could solidify themselves as powerhouses in the AL.
That being said, the Twins real-life roster looks to be very good on the backs of Pablo Lopez, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton. So, even if this offseason was a frustrating one, enjoy this upcoming summer, as it looks to be one of the most fun ones in recent memory.
 

Joe Pohald recently stated that he and his family are “just trying to right-size our business.” when he was asked about the $120M payroll for 2024, which is ranked 20 out of the 30 teams.  When I think of the term “right-sizing”, I think of the promise that was made when we approved and funded the stadium for the Twins.  The promise that the Pohlad family made in an 08/13/2008 Star Tribune article called “TWIN CITIES SPORTS OWNERS: the pohlads, minnesota twins BAND OF BROTHERS EXTENDS A LEGACY”

In another 2008 article Dave St. Peter stated:

Are the Twins in the process of “right-sizing” their payroll of $120M to match revenue of $240M?  That is a laughable suggestion but let’s back that up with facts.  We know as a fact from the last collective bargaining agreement that all teams get $200 million in revenue sharing.  In addition, it is widely believed that the Twins are getting $40 million+ this year from BSN.  So, without lifting a finger, playing a game, or even having a second to lie to its fans the Twins are making enough revenue to make the 50% rule work for the current payroll.
What might a team make beyond the revenue sharing and TV deal?  We can estimate that by looking at the Braves and see they made $528 million in 2023 due to their public disclosures as part of Liberty Media.  We also know that the Braves TV Deal is for $68 million a year so if you subtract that and the $200 million in revenue sharing you get $260 million in stadium, licensing, merchandise, etc… revenue.  With the Twin Cities metro area roughly being 60% the size of the Braves let’s assume that the Twins can only generate 60% of the same baseball revenue ($260*60%=$156 million).  The Twins are looking at $396 million in revenue based on this model and are spending only 30% on payroll.  

There is no other way to look at this other than a broken promise made to taxpayers and a money grab by some Nepo-babies.
 

I read today that a lot of fans are annoyed at the Twins ownership because they are unwilling to take on additional salaries in order to increase their chances of winning a World Series.
As a retired CFO of a $14M business with 150 employees, I can vouch for the sanctity of an annual budget.
Preparing a budget takes great knowledge of your business. You need individuals who can anticipate what the businesses expenses for the next year will be. That includes taking into consideration what the cost of utilities, insurance, employee healthcare, the raises you would like to give to your employees, hot dogs and beer and other inflationary increases will be.
When you have created an expense budget (not including player costs), you should then work out your revenue budget. Here you will estimate what you believe are the expected revenues from ticket sales, concessions, TV revenue, etc. When creating these estimates it is important to budget conservatively. A good budget will contain income estimates that are attainable. Additionally your expenses should be budgeted accurately with extra funds built in just in case there are unexpected obligations.
You will now have a revenue budget and an expense budget, still to come are your team’s salaries and benefits, and the organization’s profit goal. The basic format becomes:
+Revenue
-Expenses
=Net Income
-Player Compensation
=Profit
Now let’s throw in some numbers -
$500,000,000 – Revenue
-$300,000,000 – Expenses
$200,000,000 – Net Income
$ x,xxx,xxx – Player Compensation
$ 50,000,000 – Budget Profit
In order to balance out the budget Player Compensation would be $150,000,000.
This is what the Twins administration will go through every year when determining how much money they should allocate for players salaries.
What can change the player budget? A couple of things can happen: 1) ownership can decide that rather than having a return on their investment (profit) of $50,000,000, they will only expect $25,000,000. This can afford them an opportunity to allocate additional budget dollars to player salaries, or 2) they can review their original budget data and determine that some expenses may end up being greater or less than they had originally thought, this difference (which can be a plus or minus) can be used to add or subtract from player salaries, or 3) they can review the revenue budget and make changes to the player budget based on getting more or less than expected. A good example is getting less TV Revenue. A loss of $15,000,000 from Bally gets adjusted by lowering the player budget by the same $15,000,000. Of course it could happen that ticket sales are strong and halfway through the year they feel that ticket sales will be $10,000,000 over what they budgeted. In this case player salaries will have additional funds to use to make changes at the trade deadline.
Naturally, as a fan, I would like an unlimited player salary budget. But as an accountant, I understand that a sound business is based on profitability. Businesses that consistently lose money will eventually run into financial difficulties. When this happens most fans will say, why doesn’t ownership throw in additional cash flow to help out the business. But the whole idea of owning a business is to make an annual profit and to built up the equity in the team so that one day in the future, you can sell the team for a nice profit.
True most baseball teams are owned by people with significant personal wealth, but they are limited to how much they would be willing to lose of their wealth in order for the team to succeed.
There are only so many Steve Cohen’s and George Steinbrenner’s and there are a lot of owners who need the team to be profitable in order for them to succeed.
I think the Pohlad’s are wise to operate the Twins as a business and not a hobby and it is wise to hold the line on spending to what the business can afford.
This is a very simple example is only meant as an aid to showing the complicated process of putting together an annual budget and how teams may determine what they can spend on players.
 
I am not taking a side in discussions, only pointing out the importance of a business preparing a budget and trying to maintain financial sanity.

We are at the point of the offseason, with the most romantic day of the year (Pitchers and Catchers reporting on the 14th), where BIG trades usually do not happen, teams are starting to find peace with their rosters. There are still a couple name starters out there, but I dont see the Twins singing a Montgomery or a Snell. The Twins are in a decent enough position where we do not have to make any rash moves, The Twins FO should definitely be plotting and laying groundwork, but never make a move until you have to. We do not need to secure a "playoff starter"  because it is not the playoffs.
The Twins have the luxury of being in the AL Central. We do not have to constantly load up like the AL East teams. Look at the AL East... Boston will be horrid but the other 4 could all win the division, therefore they all have to make aggressive moves in advance. The AL West is a 2 team juggernaut with Houston and Texas. Seattle fancies themselves players but who knows.
The Al Central?? not so much.  The White Sox are in full blown rebuild (again) mode. KC COULD eventually be good as they have some decent pieces but still not yet. Detroit and Cleveland? well they have some intriguing pieces each, but this is not the Yanks, Jays, Rays, and O's by any stretch.
All of this is self evident. we do not need a "playoff starter" until the playoffs, and we should have a great chance at the division without an addition. Assuming Health for Correa, he will be much improved, Royce I do not see a regression. Buxton (I assume the NOT healthy, and we won without him last year, so even with him at replacement level we should be able to win again. We do not have to worry about the health of Kirilloff due to the addition of Santana who is rock solid, which means anything Kirilloff gives us (which could be significant if healthy) is just a plus. IF Wallner and Julien only show a SLIGHT regression, we still win the division with what we have.
Why sacrifice the  young talent it will take to get the "playoff starter" until we know we are going to need one? BUT, lets be redy to pounce, and pounce early when the time is right.
The time and the team could come early.
Miami has the arms we want the trouble is after a WC appearance, they have the elusions of playoffs n their heads again which will not happen. Last year Philly started out HORRID!!! before coming on in the second half, that will not happen this year, they are a better team, Atlanta is Atlanta. Mets and Washington will both be nothing burgers, but Miami is pricing in perfection if they think they will be in the playoffs again. they are 3rd best at best n their division. which puts them  in WC chase again. Cinci and ST Luois are both better teams than them, the Dodgers are a gimmee, which means they are fighting with a tough Arizona team and a still stacked Padres team.
How quickly could a white flag be raised in Miami? Well lets take a look at their  schedule out the gate. After gettign 7 against Pittsburgh and Angels to start the season they have 3 against STL, Yankees, 2 series with Atlanta, the Cubs, and Giants.  By Late May or Early June Miami coudl be in position to start looking at flipping some starters for young quality prospects. SO Why move now?  Sit and wait, lay the groundwork for a June or even Early July trade where we send some high quality prospects to Miami for a high quality, controllable "playoff starter" 
 
Until then, simply carry on.
 
 

TV--While the details are not known, the Twins have re-upped with Diamond/Bally for another (and final season). I am one that has been able to watch every Twins game, which is the main reason I have the "Sports Pack" on DirecTV. The reported amount on the television contract is 85% of what the Twins received in 2023, a reduction of perhaps $8M. The prospects for a better number in 2025 are not great unless the Twis profit greatly from streaming. While I am relieved the Twins will be available on TV and I don't have to do anything to see a great majority of their games, it seems to me the long-term outlook is still plenty cloudy. Rights fees are going to fall, perhaps precipitously, and the cost to subscribers on cable is almost certain to jump. How much, a no-blackout streaming contract would generate is open to questions from all sides? How much will the teams get? How much will the streamer charge to subscribe? What are fans going to pay and will they be willing to pay what is charged? It has entered my mind that if things go sideways, overall revenue will drop sharply to the point that players salaries will go down. IMHO, the cost for medium talent is out of hand--give Shohei and Judge their money, but don't pay obscene amounts to okay to good players. Arbitration season contracts bear this out, as well.
Injuries--Probably fifteen (maybe more) teams can credibly say today (within days of Spring Training) if they have good health, they will make the post season. I would say that includes the Twins. In 2022, the Twins used the IL second most in MLB. Last year, they were sixth. The difference for the Twins from 2022 to 2023 is that they had major league players available when other players went down. They were six or seven deep in competent starting pitchers and had major league ready players available for position player injuries. Bailey Ober and Louie Varland filled in well and guys like Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and Michael A Taylor met or exceeded expectations and got plenty of playing time. Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien got their chances as well and cemented themselves into the Twins' 2024 plans. This year, the Twins have added on veteran, Carlos Santana, to the position player mix, but Solano and Taylor are gone and Jorge Polanco was traded. Reinforcements would come from the same system that produced Lewis, Wallner and Julien. Last year, Polanco and Kirilloff started the season on the IL, this year there is no such carryover, but there is less proven depth to cover absences due to injuries, especially the starting pitching rotation. On the subject of injuries, I've seen TD posters question the recoveries of Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda and newcomer Anthony DeSlafani. and Josh Staumont. Who knows? Maybe none of them will be ready, but there's no evidence either way that they won't be healthy on Wednesday. We shall see. Personally, I doubt the recovery of DeSclafani the most. 
Bullpen--In contrast to the position player possibilities and the starting rotation, the Twins have added a bunch of veteran relief arms, most of them with options. Josh Staumont, Jay Jackson, Justin Topa and Zack Weiss were added to the bullpen and all are over 30, all under team control for multiple years and all but Jackson have options. They have additional pitchers with big league experience on minor league contracts. I'd say they have redundancy in the bullpen. They shouldn't have much hesitancy to option any of these guys and someone should be effective. The floor of the bullpen has been lifted considerably.
Carlos Santana--Yeah, he's 38 and he hasn't been a truly above-average hitter for five years, but he had 23 homers and 86 RBI last year. I can't see a huge falloff in 2024 from this guy. He's historically better against left handed pitching and his floor with the 2024 Twins is as a platoon partner for Alex Kirilloff. Injuries will probably give him plenty of at-bats against right handers. It is an open question if another, younger option might be a better fit. If Santana crashes and burns, I would hope the Twins can cashier him rather than keep him on the roster all season. 
 

Listening to the Mariners podcast the team & the fans were overjoyed by the trade. That Polanco had been a target for a long time & they really liked his #s though social media tried to put him down because of his injuries. That the pieces they gave up were not that necessary for their bigger plans. But we have to see there are 2 Polancos, The long-time untreated injured Polanco & the healthy Polanco. Most like to focus on the long-time untreated injured Polanco but with last year of taking it easy on him plus a normal offseason I'm betting on a healthy Polanco with corresponding stats
Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards                                                           3.3 WAR 2019 25 MIN AL 153 704 631 107 186 40 7 22 79 4 3 60 116 .295 .356 .485 .841 121 306 11 4 2 7 2 *6D/H AS,MVP-13                                                           4.2 WAR 2021 27 MIN AL 152 644 588 97 158 35 2 33 98 11 6 45 118 .269 .323 .503 .826 125 296 4 5 0 6 0 *46/DH  Polanco had a great debut with ,333/.500/.833/1.333 & a 268 OPS+, he had a very good BA & OBA early in his career with few ABs. '19 was his big opportunity & had a great 1st half & became an All-Star but because of extended time at SS he played at least the last half with bad ankles & his #s dropped considerably yet he got MVP votes. He ended the season with ankle surgery. '20 he played all season with bad ankles & had another ankle surgery at the end of the season. '21 he was moved off SS & never had ankle problems again & had his only truly healthy season his OAA was 13. '22 he had a good 1st half, in June he hurt his back, they gave him time off,  he bounced back & hasn't had back problems after that. Then he hurt his knee sliding, He played the rest of the season with a bad knee until he could no longer take the field. His stats are good even when playing hurt but they are phenomenal when 100%
Gonzalez is an overrated prospect. He's not a great fielder but has a good arm, so he's projected in RF. He's young so some think he'll add extra power but the truth is his structure is 5'10 so he's pretty much filled out & true evaluators believe he won't hit close to the HRs that he needs to profile to play RF together with his lack of plate discipline his stock will plummet. SEA got rid of him at the right time. Twins have no present or future need for Gonzalez.
DeSclafani, SEA was dying to flip. FO thinks that they can fix his pitch mix (they thought the same about Shoemaker). We don't need another 5th starter, we have plenty of in-house pitchers that need that opportunity more than a washed-up veteran. 
Bowan, a low lotto ticket that this FO likes his weird stats
Topa, a 32 yrs. old flash in the pan, which like Jose Lopez we don't know how he going to react in MN & if that success is sustainable. We also have in-house pitchers we can go with, that need experience & we know.
Money, free up money so they can sign a 1yr. Gallo-type hitting 1B or OF. Here they signed Carlos Santana at 1B, a potential HR hitter that SO less than an average Twin but can he come up with the big hit when we need it? & Miranda is better served as a 1B/DH to raise his stock
I'd rather have a healthy Polanco as a full-time 2B that frees up time for Farmer to be better used elsewhere & his great clutch bat for '24. than all these pieces we really don't need. We weren't over-budget so why trade Polanco? Our only real need is a post-season SP if they can't swing that then it's better to do nothing.
The '24 offseason feels a lot like the '21 offseason. It's good to acknowledge our mistakes so we can learn from them if not we keep on doing them & that can be a big problem