Cory Engelhardt

I checked spotrac, and I had the wrong 2024 number for Margot. He is actually making 10 million, not 14. That brings my 2024 payroll number down closer to 137. Plus Margot is certainly very good insurance for CF. I also see I listed Jorge Alcala in the bullpen. I'm not expecting that necessarily. I do think they will have one of the bullpen spots be a rotating arm (Josh Winder, Brent Headrick, et al) that will act as a long arm.

1) Trade for Tyler Glasnow and Manual Margot. Most likely it will only be guys who are not currently on the 40 man, so probably something like Yasser Mercedes, one of the many young pitchers who will start at AA, and another lottery ticket. Taking on this salary from Tampa is agreed on and helps Tampa too. Getting one more year of Bally money helps pull the trigger on this deal. Both are only signed for 2024, and Glasnow should at minimum get the QO after 2024. 2) Trade Max Kepler to the Dodgers for 2 prospects, pitcher Maddux Bruns and OF Kendall George, their 17 and 14 prospect respectively. 3) Trade Jorge Polanco to Seattle for 2 prospects, including Cole Phillips (#15) and Michael Morales (#21.) 4) Trade Nick Gordon to Miami for a ptbnl. Give him a chance for a change of scenery. 5) Sign Ryne Stanek, 1 year 3.5 million. Former experience with the Rays and the Astros, along with a VERY good fastball, will be a welcome addition to the bullpen. 6) I do think they will be aggressive in the minor league contract phase, to get 1-2 starters added on incentive laden minor league deals. Someone like Eric Lauer (formerly Milwaukee) and Brad Keller (formerly KC) to help with depth at St. Paul. I do very much love the depth that is starting at Wichita, but they will need guys who can help right away if/when injuries occur. 7) I am going in here that Buxton and Miranda will both be healthy and ready to play. I don't know what the means for the full season, but if they are healthy and ready to contribute to CF and 1B, that REALLY helps the team. Kirilloff as well. Austin Martin and Willi Castro can handle/backup any position outside of 1b and catcher. 8) I keep Kyle Farmer on the roster because he is a great option to platoon with Julien at 2B, he has the ability to play SS, and he crushes lefties. My guess is, when Brooks Lee is ready is when a Farmer trade happens. 9) I keep Vazquez. Catching depth is important. I do think Camargo will get a chance at some point this year, as it's really difficult to predict to get through another year using only 2 catchers, so Vazquez is here for now too. 10) I really do like Varland, and I think for right now he profiles really well as a strong setup caliber arm. Maybe eventually, as a need comes about, he can shift back to the rotation. But he is a weapon in the bullpen, and that's where I think he goes. 11) The opening day payroll is still lower than 2023, but is closer to 140 million instead of 125. That's my guess on number. C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Eduoard Julien ($0.77M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Manual Margot ($14.00M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.77M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Tyler Glasnow ($25.00M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Ryne Stanek ($3.50M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 2.63% over budget

I mean, the majority of baseball is saying the same thing right? I feel like the winter meetings were a much bigger deal before there was social media and everyone had zoom and cell phones. It's still a really nice job fair, but it's not really a thing anymore that teams have their only chance to meet face to face with other organizations or with players/agents like it used to be. I'd imagine things pick up in the next 2 weeks, take a lull during the holidays and new years, and start again early-ish January, not just for the Twins but all teams.

It'll be interesting to see how much draft bonus pool money the Twins end up with, now having pick #21, a pick for Gray signing elsewhere for over 50 million, and a comp B pick after the 2nd round. They certainly can make some waves in the draft, and that's certainly a fun follow.

Which is why creativity is important right?

I've had a couple of thoughts over the last few days, and I just wanted to share them in this thread to get others' opinions. 1) Erick Fedde; I could see the Twins in on this. I know rumors are that it's down to the White Sox and Mets. I wouldn't be shocked if it is or is not the Twins, but I could see this. I also say this as I wouldn't at all expect it to be the primary addition this offseason. IF they get Fedde, I could absolutely see them rolling with a 6 man rotation to help watch the innings of Ober and Paddack, among others. Maybe less so Ober, but still, he had BY FAR his career high innings total in 2023, so I could see them not wanting him to blow past that number. I could be wrong. 2) With adding a pitcher, I keep coming back to, IF they truly are looking to add a front-line starter, to me that would spell more going after a guy who is currently a front-line starter, not someone who is a tweak away from potentially being that. So the YOUNGER Seattle guys (Woo, Miller) or some of the Marlins pitching (Cabrera) this wouldn't apply to. It also makes me think that Burnes or Glasnow, or even someone else not in trade rumors (Framber Valdez, Nestor Cortes, I'm just spitballing names) is more the hope for the way that was worded. The hope is to get someone who immediately starts game #2 in a playoff series over Joe Ryan (who in his own right was VERY good pre-injury 2023.) Am I crazy (don't answer that.) But I think that's what their goal is this time around. Worry less about the team control JUST for 2024, and worry more about filling the need of a playoff level starter. Thoughts?

I can see a scenario where he is picked yes. That said, hard to say if they will regret it or not without seeing the finished 40 man roster for this offseason. If he does get a chance with another organization, wish him well :)

This kind of move, if we were to trade for Paraedes (and Glasnow) would have me be fine having Julien go back. Lewis, I think, can then move to 2b, and Brooks Lee is probably more of a 3b than 2b anyway. Have Parades keep 3b warm until Lee is ready, and then have 1b/3b covered. I don’t know if the value is there though if we aren’t also bringing Glasnow in a deal like this. I can’t say I want to trade major trade assets for a hitter right now

I think taking a flier on Oneil is worth it. I expect a Kepler trade, and adding a right handed hitter who has some pop makes sense

Lopez is 27, he will turn 28 in March. I think generally they won’t trade major league pitching or Walker Jenkins or (most likely) Royce. Otherwise I wouldn’t be shocked at just about anything

Scott Diamond had an ok 3 year run 2011-2013, at least in comparison to the rest of the pitching staff at that time. Otherwise I don't know that I can argue any of the choices. And yes, man, was Shane Mack good. :)

Just to compare; Joe Nathan was a SS. So was Jacob DeGrom. And Michael Cuddyer. High School SS's can do a LOT of positions later on.

Agreed 100%

Ryan was legit good until he went he was injured 6/27. Prior to 6/27, he was 8-4, and in 93.2 innings he struck out 100, walking only 15, and had a 2.98 era with a 2.77 fip. He was a dummy and tried to pitch through the injury, and that wasn't smart. After the injury, he was 3-6 and in 68 innings he still struck out 97, but he had more walks than previosly (19) and he had a 6.62 era and a 6.01 fip. I don't know if he is AS good as his pre injury numbers, but his splitter/fastball combo was legit the first 2/3 of the year. I also don't at all expect him to be anywhere near as bad as his post-injury pitching was either.

Agreed!

Ryan, Ober and Lopez are all well above replacement level. You've seen what replacement level is, correct? It's still up in the air a bit with Paddack, but his stuff was electric in the playoffs. Yes, without any additions this offseason they are the odds-on favorite to win the division in 2024. I want them to add because JUST winning the division isn't good enough next year.

I certainly don't expect Logan Gilbert to be available in trade, so I don't know why his name is the one put out there when mentioning Kepler to Seattle. But these are certainly fun rumors to read about.

I’ll take that bet

Well, I will say I feel more confident about Paddack going into 2024 than I did Maeda coming into 2023. Just for comparison’s sake

We don’t know that they won’t choose to add and extend someone like Burnes though (or at least add and plan on giving the qo 11 months from now.) We are all just guessing at this point based on quotes regarding payroll. I can’t say they won’t add someone like Burnes or Glasnow, but we have to let this offseason play out right? Arguably, the trade package going out for a player with 1 year team control (especially a name player) should be less in terms of prospects compared to someone with multiple years of team control. So adding someone like Burnes or Glasnow, just for one year, shouldn’t be cost prohibitive, and would also cost less in terms of prospects. With how much pitching they have that will start the year at Wichita, this path makes a world of sense to me for 2024.

None of these are contracts that should stop the team in any way from improving the team this year or for the next 5 or so. Vazquez and Buxton both make what a back end starter makes on the open market, Dobnak is basically a rounding error on a spreadsheet, and Correa without plantar fasciitis is a damn good player. If Correa never plays again, that’s one thing. But the team is in a good spot with a majority of their roster earning close to the minimum as well.

I do expect a major league signing at some point in January or February. I’d also imagine a number of minor league signings. Should be a fun winter :)

I do think, or at least it seems, that there is good leadership now. That's a good thing. I will argue pretty strongly that Thielbar is not at all a dime a dozen reliever though. His career year in many ways was 2022, so I don't know that he will get back to that level of productivity again. But I'd prefer him and his curveball in the bullpen to Chapman in my opinion.

Imagine saying/thinking that Steer has a similar bat to Polanco. Ugh And no, in no reality does Polanco and CES or Steer and CES get you ANYWHERE in the ballpark of one of Seattle's young pitchers. Sorry

Agree to disagree here. Miranda (when healthy) is better than CES, he just is. And if you think CES's best defensive home isn't dh, I don't know what to tell you. Thinking he could play 3b at all is similar to me thinking I can win the powerball, even when not buying a ticket. Steer, he is a mlb caliber player. He isn't starting over Julien/Lewis/Correa/Lee or a healthy Miranda.