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LastOnePicked

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Everything posted by LastOnePicked

  1. LastOnePicked
    The logic seems pretty clear to me. 30 starts of a premium pitcher are far more valuable to a team that sees itself in need and potentially in the hunt than 5-10 starts. Plus, it potentially allows the other team to keep their pitching prospects a bit longer in their farm system, delaying their service time.
  2. LastOnePicked
    But isn't that also true for Ryan, Lopez and Buxton? That logic cuts both ways.
  3. LastOnePicked
    "It was a credit to them to hold onto core players such as Joe Ryan and Pablo López this winter" Was it, though? If they had no intention of bolstering the roster, all it did was leave trade value to rot on the roster while hoping fans were foolish enough to buy their rhetoric of "hope" and "relentless pursuits" of a championship.
  4. LastOnePicked
    Yes. Not out of malice - I like Ryan and I think he deserves the money - but the Twins are clearly not going for it this year, so they need to be pursuing future value at every opportunity. And I love seeing former Twins get a shot at a World Series run if they can't get a shot at one here.
  5. LastOnePicked
    Fangraphs has them at 12th, with CLE and DET well ahead of them. I couldn't find any updated rankings that had them higher than 9th. Am I missing a more current ranking?
  6. LastOnePicked
    I think this is very much oversold. The Twins don't appear in any of the following "best of" categories: Best Farm System (DET is third) Best Use of the Draft (DET is fifth) Best Use of the International Market (CLE is fourth) Best at Developing Pitchers (CLE is fourth) Best at Developing Hitters (DET is third) If anything, the results of this poll make a pretty good case for firing Falvey and Zoll immediately. The Twins are simply not top-tier in anything.
  7. LastOnePicked
    "The decision to hold onto Ryan, Lopez and Buxton seems more motivated by preserving a semblance of fan favor as opposed to a baseball decision." This. And that's why I have little to no hope for the future under the new Pohlad. This offseason was the ideal time to make difficult decisions for the good of the club moving forward. Keeping these three (all of whom will see their trade value drop as the season progresses) without supplementing the roster in meaningful ways is simply kicking the can down the road - something we've seen this club do too often over the last three years. And it's also silly, because there are hardly any fans left to favor. Attendance is already below the Metrodome days, and that's with Lopez, Ryan and Buxton. Those three names won't make the Twins big again - only a championship run can do that.
  8. LastOnePicked
    That's fine. I'll probably be calling him Orlando Cabrera at least until August.
  9. LastOnePicked
    That's an awfully low bar. Fans should be able to expect that, at a bare minimum, evaluators and coaches for a major league baseball team "know what they're doing." The question raised by this article is whether or not they know what they're doing better than the competition. It'd be helpful to see what other teams with similar international draft pool money have been able to do. The Twins are not going to make themselves winners through free agency, so they will have to find a way to maximize the production from drafted players.
  10. LastOnePicked
    This is what the relentless pursuit of a championship looks like.
  11. LastOnePicked
    Every team covets and protects MLB-ready starters with frontline potential. I'm just very skeptical about Abel and Bradley. I think their respective teams had seen enough to know they weren't losing much. If the Twins have some kind of magic formula for refurbishing young starters, great. Maybe they just need additional guidance and confidence. It will be hard to build that confidence with the league's worst defense behind them, though.
  12. LastOnePicked
    "For fans searching for hope, it may exist beyond the 2027 season and the potential for another lockout. A reset of baseball’s economic structure could create a more favorable environment and allow the Pohlads to sell the franchise at a price they consider acceptable. " But wouldn't that make it less likely that the Pohlads would sell? I mean, if the revenue streams for mid-market teams like the Twins improves, why wouldn't the Pohlads simply rake in more annual profit all while letting the asset appreciate?
  13. LastOnePicked
    Thank God this team doesn't act in half-measures.
  14. LastOnePicked
    Pretending a window of competition is open doesn't actually open a window. There is zero chance that a slow, injury-prone 90-loss team with no significant roster upgrades will become a 90-win club. Zero. I want Buxton to have a chance to play for a winner, and I want the Twins to maximize current value for future payoff. This nibbling approach to "contention" has been - and will be - the road to diminishing returns. If some can find joy in watching Buxton, Ryan, Lopez and Jeffers waste away on a last-place club, more power to them, I guess.
  15. LastOnePicked
    I don't believe for a second that they believe this. Not a single second. I think it's far more likely that they were afraid of ruining Tom Pohlad's grand entrance with news of trades of popular players. He practiced that "we owe the fans hope" line, thinking that simply holding on to the same roster that lost 90 games is some sort of "gift" to the few remaining fans. It's foolish. But, hey, that's the new "Twins Way."
  16. LastOnePicked
    "With the Twins still having a strong starting pitching core, they should be able to put themselves in a position to compete throughout the season." I'm confused. Who have they added since last year? And starters only give you 4-6 innings - so having a completely cratered bullpen will hurt no matter how good the starters might be. Smoke and mirrors. The AL Central competition might not be burning up free agency, but DET and CLE don't have anything to worry about when it comes to the Twins.
  17. LastOnePicked
    Biggest mistake of the offseason. Ryan wants to play for a contender and the Twins need high-impact prospects. It's just another example of the Twins not understanding who they are (a midmarket team with a 90-loss roster) or where they're going (nowhere now but hopefully building for 2028 or 2029).
  18. LastOnePicked
    If you're convinced that this team has a shot at contending, but if you also accept the payroll limitations in place, then a half-measure offseason is actually the right decision. Make modest free-agent additions while auditioning prospects to supplement your core. See how close or how far you are from winning. I'm just not convinced that this team has even the most remote change at contending. Slow, injury-prone, terrible in the field, no bullpen - and none of that has changed since the end of the season. If I were a Pohlad, I would have torn this thing down to the studs starting back in October. Sometimes a hopeful half-measure that keeps a team barely afloat is worse than a decisive full measure that restructures and regroups. You get rot out the second you see it - waiting only makes things worse.
  19. LastOnePicked
    To me, the danger of keeping Falvey is that he's fighting for job security. And if he's fighting for job security, he's going to continue to make short-term decisions to try and make the team seem more competitive than it really is. It's one thing to have a deadline fire sale that brings back a haul of high end A and AA prospects. But to also target "MLB-ready" talent was just so unwise. Top teams don't typically part with players on the cusp of MLB stardom - they typically part with once-promising prospects who have proven in early stints that they won't live up to the hype. Outman, Roden and Bradley are all more likely to be future DFA candidates than to be future MLB stars. But Falvey has put himself on the line. He convinced the ownership group that the Fangraphs early projection was proof that the roster "core" can compete and should stay intact. If young players can step up, if Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers can lead by example, and if the team makes the playoffs, he may end up looking like a genius and earning himself an extension. But, in the more likely event that the team can't patch the holes left from last year's fire sale and the veterans who had maximum value this offseason have minimum to zero value at the trade deadline, then that should finally be the end of the Derek Falvey experience in MN. I will never root against the Twins, but I expect this will all end pretty badly come August.
  20. LastOnePicked
    "While the trial-by-fire formula can eventually lead to a high-quality, cost-efficient relief corps, it is pollyannaish to believe that's going to take hold immediately." Perhaps you haven't heard: the Twins are not rebuilding. They see themselves as contenders. So it better take hold immediately, because we are letting premium trade value rot away on the vine.
  21. LastOnePicked
    Except ... here Tom Pohlad is, doing the exact same thing as the last two years. Keep a terrible FO and roster intact, close your eyes and cross your fingers. He may make big changes after this season, sure. That's like calling a plumber after your broken pipes turn your house into a swimming pool. That doesn't deserve credit in my opinion.
  22. LastOnePicked
    Here's the problem: the lie has already happened. He said he doesn't work in half-measures. Putting out a reduced payroll, keeping your FO intact, refusing to trade veteran players at the height of their value and running back a 70-92 roster is the dictionary definition of a half-measure. The trust is already broken. I could even have accepted: "We're not going to add, but we're afraid that news of any more trades is going to sour any chance at stabilizing season ticket sales. So we're going to just toss a hail mary and see what we have. If we're not in good shape by mid-summer, we'll have another deadline sell-off. It's a half-measure, yes, but it's better PR right now than a tear-down." That honesty would have been refreshing.
  23. LastOnePicked
    Because I'm a jerk and I'm not optimistic enough. I know it. I own it. And I'm beating this stuff to death. But I am a little bit tired of doing this every offseason. "Give Baldelli another chance - he's one of the winningest coaches in Twins history!" "Give Falvey a chance to have his pitching pipeline hit the big league level." "Give this team a chance - they were so close in 2019/2023!" Over and over and over again. Clear eyes will tell you that, yet again, this team doesn't have what it takes to win. There are only three paths forward for a team in their position: 1) huge free-agent splashes or 2) a total tear-down that rebuilds not only the roster but also your developmental philosophy or 3) false hope that if your competition stinks and literally everything bounces your way, you can contend. I am so tired of false hope and so ready for cold reality and so, so ready for pathway #2. But now it's not going to happen and I have to just let it go.
  24. LastOnePicked
    When are they finally going to give Theo a chance? Late night games. Draining the energy out of opponents. Redefining "bat giveaways." I'd buy tickets for that.
  25. LastOnePicked
    That means absolutely nothing. It cost him nothing to say. It says nothing about his ability to make hard decisions. Credibility should be earned by action and results. Period.
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