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Everything posted by LastOnePicked
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That's an awfully low bar. Fans should be able to expect that, at a bare minimum, evaluators and coaches for a major league baseball team "know what they're doing." The question raised by this article is whether or not they know what they're doing better than the competition. It'd be helpful to see what other teams with similar international draft pool money have been able to do. The Twins are not going to make themselves winners through free agency, so they will have to find a way to maximize the production from drafted players.
- 32 replies
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- emmanuel rodriguez
- danny de andrade
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This is what the relentless pursuit of a championship looks like.
- 61 replies
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- eric wagaman
- alex jackson
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Every team covets and protects MLB-ready starters with frontline potential. I'm just very skeptical about Abel and Bradley. I think their respective teams had seen enough to know they weren't losing much. If the Twins have some kind of magic formula for refurbishing young starters, great. Maybe they just need additional guidance and confidence. It will be hard to build that confidence with the league's worst defense behind them, though.
- 46 replies
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- taj bradley
- mick abel
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The Pohlad Playbook Has Not Changed in 30 Years
LastOnePicked replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
"For fans searching for hope, it may exist beyond the 2027 season and the potential for another lockout. A reset of baseball’s economic structure could create a more favorable environment and allow the Pohlads to sell the franchise at a price they consider acceptable. " But wouldn't that make it less likely that the Pohlads would sell? I mean, if the revenue streams for mid-market teams like the Twins improves, why wouldn't the Pohlads simply rake in more annual profit all while letting the asset appreciate?- 24 replies
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- jim pohlad
- jerry bell
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Pretending a window of competition is open doesn't actually open a window. There is zero chance that a slow, injury-prone 90-loss team with no significant roster upgrades will become a 90-win club. Zero. I want Buxton to have a chance to play for a winner, and I want the Twins to maximize current value for future payoff. This nibbling approach to "contention" has been - and will be - the road to diminishing returns. If some can find joy in watching Buxton, Ryan, Lopez and Jeffers waste away on a last-place club, more power to them, I guess.
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I don't believe for a second that they believe this. Not a single second. I think it's far more likely that they were afraid of ruining Tom Pohlad's grand entrance with news of trades of popular players. He practiced that "we owe the fans hope" line, thinking that simply holding on to the same roster that lost 90 games is some sort of "gift" to the few remaining fans. It's foolish. But, hey, that's the new "Twins Way."
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"With the Twins still having a strong starting pitching core, they should be able to put themselves in a position to compete throughout the season." I'm confused. Who have they added since last year? And starters only give you 4-6 innings - so having a completely cratered bullpen will hurt no matter how good the starters might be. Smoke and mirrors. The AL Central competition might not be burning up free agency, but DET and CLE don't have anything to worry about when it comes to the Twins.
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If you're convinced that this team has a shot at contending, but if you also accept the payroll limitations in place, then a half-measure offseason is actually the right decision. Make modest free-agent additions while auditioning prospects to supplement your core. See how close or how far you are from winning. I'm just not convinced that this team has even the most remote change at contending. Slow, injury-prone, terrible in the field, no bullpen - and none of that has changed since the end of the season. If I were a Pohlad, I would have torn this thing down to the studs starting back in October. Sometimes a hopeful half-measure that keeps a team barely afloat is worse than a decisive full measure that restructures and regroups. You get rot out the second you see it - waiting only makes things worse.
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To me, the danger of keeping Falvey is that he's fighting for job security. And if he's fighting for job security, he's going to continue to make short-term decisions to try and make the team seem more competitive than it really is. It's one thing to have a deadline fire sale that brings back a haul of high end A and AA prospects. But to also target "MLB-ready" talent was just so unwise. Top teams don't typically part with players on the cusp of MLB stardom - they typically part with once-promising prospects who have proven in early stints that they won't live up to the hype. Outman, Roden and Bradley are all more likely to be future DFA candidates than to be future MLB stars. But Falvey has put himself on the line. He convinced the ownership group that the Fangraphs early projection was proof that the roster "core" can compete and should stay intact. If young players can step up, if Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers can lead by example, and if the team makes the playoffs, he may end up looking like a genius and earning himself an extension. But, in the more likely event that the team can't patch the holes left from last year's fire sale and the veterans who had maximum value this offseason have minimum to zero value at the trade deadline, then that should finally be the end of the Derek Falvey experience in MN. I will never root against the Twins, but I expect this will all end pretty badly come August.
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The Opportunity (and Cost) of a Wide-Open Bullpen
LastOnePicked replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
"While the trial-by-fire formula can eventually lead to a high-quality, cost-efficient relief corps, it is pollyannaish to believe that's going to take hold immediately." Perhaps you haven't heard: the Twins are not rebuilding. They see themselves as contenders. So it better take hold immediately, because we are letting premium trade value rot away on the vine.- 37 replies
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- grant hartwig
- dan altavilla
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Except ... here Tom Pohlad is, doing the exact same thing as the last two years. Keep a terrible FO and roster intact, close your eyes and cross your fingers. He may make big changes after this season, sure. That's like calling a plumber after your broken pipes turn your house into a swimming pool. That doesn't deserve credit in my opinion.
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Here's the problem: the lie has already happened. He said he doesn't work in half-measures. Putting out a reduced payroll, keeping your FO intact, refusing to trade veteran players at the height of their value and running back a 70-92 roster is the dictionary definition of a half-measure. The trust is already broken. I could even have accepted: "We're not going to add, but we're afraid that news of any more trades is going to sour any chance at stabilizing season ticket sales. So we're going to just toss a hail mary and see what we have. If we're not in good shape by mid-summer, we'll have another deadline sell-off. It's a half-measure, yes, but it's better PR right now than a tear-down." That honesty would have been refreshing.
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Because I'm a jerk and I'm not optimistic enough. I know it. I own it. And I'm beating this stuff to death. But I am a little bit tired of doing this every offseason. "Give Baldelli another chance - he's one of the winningest coaches in Twins history!" "Give Falvey a chance to have his pitching pipeline hit the big league level." "Give this team a chance - they were so close in 2019/2023!" Over and over and over again. Clear eyes will tell you that, yet again, this team doesn't have what it takes to win. There are only three paths forward for a team in their position: 1) huge free-agent splashes or 2) a total tear-down that rebuilds not only the roster but also your developmental philosophy or 3) false hope that if your competition stinks and literally everything bounces your way, you can contend. I am so tired of false hope and so ready for cold reality and so, so ready for pathway #2. But now it's not going to happen and I have to just let it go.
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They're maybe middling clubs in the grand scheme of MLB. Here's how they recently stack up to the Twins: Cleveland: (2024) 92-69; (2025) 88-74 Detroit: (2024) 86-76; (2025) 86-76 Twins (2024) 82-80; (2025) 70-92 These 2026 Twins have dropped another $30M in payroll and have no bullpen. The Tigers are Guardians are again building off of playoffs years. Oh, and both Cleveland and Detroit's farm systems are ranked higher than the Twins, even after the trade deadline sell-off. So, perhaps they shouldn't scare most teams, and I don't want to see the Twins afraid of them either. But they're in a totally different AL Central class at this point, and this team as currently constructed won't finish within 10 games of either one of them. So I respectfully disagree.
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This is the moment is where I lose all optimism and trust: “I think we are certainly within reach of winning a division title this year," Pohlad opined. "And I think we’ll continue to look at moves we can make that will help us accomplish that.” This is so, so delusional. It's false hope. This team is light years behind the Guardians in terms of player development. The Royals and Tigers have far more talented rosters and a better plan for success. Even the White Sox are getting ready to slide out of the cellar. This slow, injury-prone 92 loss team that has added virtually nothing is going to ... compete for a division? Get real. It's not straight talk - it's pandering. It's being too afraid to communicate with us - and with the veteran players - directly about the state of the franchise. But by not facing the roster rot head on, it means this team will have an even harder time getting premium value for veterans later on, and it may damage the Twins' ability to have a better draft advantage in 2027. So no, I have no optimism from any of this. If you can't make the unpopular, hard decisions on Day 1, then you can't expect to lead us into a new direction. This team is owned and run by people who don't even remotely understand what winning baseball looks like.
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This is where the fans can have an impact. If we close our wallets to revenue streams, the valuation won't recover and the partners will apply pressure. Or, fuller revenue sharing in a new CBA, expansion kickbacks and new MLB streaming deals will make ticket sales completely obsolete ... and no one in ownership will ever have to care.
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This aspect fascinates me, yes. It's now 100% clear to me that they're going to nibble, which is exactly what Buxton said he wouldn't tolerate. Do they go directly to Buxton and Ryan and say, "Hey, go out and play a great first half. If we're close to contending for a WC spot, we'll add some big trade additions if they're in the final year of their contract. If we're not close to contending, we'll get you out of here by the deadline. Deal?"
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I think this is the same guy who sold me the Brooklyn Bridge when I was in NY. Don't applaud this too quickly. As an owner, this is something you do, not something you talk about. Fans have to see it to believe it. And I'll concede this: they're in a bit of a tough spot. There's no contention window right now, and the 2027 season is very uncertain. Now is an okay time for low payrolls, just so long as they make investments into infrastructure and coaching. All the more reason to trade what value you have, right now.
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"We’ve got to figure out what’s keeping us from having more consistent success than we’ve had in the past," Tom said, "and I think the rub, if you will, on the organization, historically speaking, is there’s a feeling which I might share that we continue to run the same playbook over and over, thinking for a different result. The accountability factor is saying, if something doesn’t go right, if we don’t meet expectations, what are we going to do differently and then go out and do something differently.” Tom, I'm sure you're not reading this, but on the off-chance you're having an employee dig through the plebeian fan sites for fan reactions, here's this: Since Target Field opened - the great promise of the future of Twins baseball - this is one of the worst five organizations in all of baseball. Terrible overall record, terrible postseason record, terrible track record with player health and prospect performance. Terrible. Don't just own the team; own the failure. Understand it and change it. You won't get a dime from the vast majority of former fans until you do. Don't pretend you understand it. Don't paper it over with fancy talk about Twins "legacy." Hire people who understand it. make it clear that results matter. Winning is a decision, it's a choice. A series of choices. Make those choices. Hire the people who can make those choices. Start now.
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Come on now. Who among us hasn't bankrupted a string of media and entertainment business? It's at least good that they realized they had to get him out of the cockpit. That is maybe helpful.
- 85 replies
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- jim pohlad
- joe pohlad
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