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LastOnePicked

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Everything posted by LastOnePicked

  1. LastOnePicked
    In the interest of fairness, there were some very good FA signings in 2019: Cruz, Cron, Schoop. This made for a very nice mix of established veterans, guys with something to prove and developing young talent. They were a dominant AL Central team in 2019 (though they did maybe benefit from a Cleveland slide at the end). It was fun. Good for them. 2020 doesn't strike me as all that good. Many players regressed, and they backed into the division title against fairly weak competition. Had 2020 been a full season, I doubt the Twins would have even made the playoffs last year. How much credit are they supposed to get for this? I fully understand that if the WS is the only goal, then fans of 28 teams are going to experience disappointing seasons each year. As a fan, I would have considered just some degree of postseason fight - and the development of a young core and strong starting staff and bullpen to build upon - to be worthy of praise. These things just haven't happened. Instead of building and getting stronger, they've now completely collapsed as an organization and seemingly missed a window of contention. Again, why is that worthy of credit?
  2. LastOnePicked
    But we do have an idea after these 5-6 years. They took over one of the worst teams in baseball, and they are again one of the worst teams in baseball. In between, they won zero playoff games. Their trades and free agent signings are a mixed bag at best. Their internal talent evaluation is very poor. They have made dubious contract extensions, and whiffed on extending higher-impact players. Their highly-touted young arms have mostly blown out. The deals they made at this year's deadline generated plenty of press, but the proof of their impact is years away, while the players they traded are thriving. I'm not saying anything negative about who they are as human beings. But I just don't understand the fan loyalty at this point, which doesn't in any way seem earned. Was it all the dazzle of the Bomba Squad year? Don't get me wrong - I LOVE that we beat the Yankees for the season HR record, but I'd trade that in a second for an organization that produces competitive talent more like the Rays or Giants.
  3. LastOnePicked
    Imagine two people run a race. One has everything it needs to win (good shoes, youth, rest, health), and the other runs the race barefooted and hungover. No, it's not the "fault" of the one with the advantage for winning the race, but it's probably not best for him/her to brag too much about winning it, either. Those two division titles are often used as Exhibit A as to why we FO detractors are "wrong." But what was our record against those outside our division and against teams above .500? Most importantly, what was our experience in the playoffs after those titles were won? I'm not angry that they haven't won a World Series, by the way, but I'm concerned that they haven't even in one game been remotely competitive. For all the hype, there just hasn't been much substance. I'm coming off as harsher than I probably am, but I'm surprised that the consensus fan response at this point isn't a whole lot of skepticism and a whole lot of pressure on these guys to make good on their stated objectives. As someone else said here, their leash should be very short at this point. We seem almost too quick to accept their excuses ... or worse, even to make excuses for them.
  4. LastOnePicked
    I swear, last post for a bit, but for those like Nick who are wondering why there's so much negativity or pushback on this FO, here's the core of our argument: Ability to draft: Perhaps too early to tell, though first-round choices don't seem overwhelmingly impressive. And some (Sabato) are mind-bogglingly bad. Ability to assess MiLB talent internally: Doesn't look great at this point. Pathways for prospects isn't clear, and many get blocked by sub-par or replacement-level players. Ability to develop MLB players: So-so. Most young Twins seem particularly fundamentally unsound (though rookies often struggle). Ability to trade and assess MiLB/MLB talent externally: Not good at all. Maeda may have been a slight win, while there are some major, major losses. Ability to field a winner: Division championships in the years when 3 of 5 division foes were completely rebuilding. Not a single playoff victory - in fact, not even a competitive game or a close loss yet. In fact, many of us are wondering why is there so much defense of this regime. It's not a particularly hasty assessment at this point. I'm hoping for the best, but I'm waiting for actual results of a sustainable winner - which was their stated goal. If my assessment isn't fair, I'll be very happy to eat my words.
  5. LastOnePicked
    Isn't the wisest roster management to keep players with the most talent and ability - particularly at the moment when you need those talents/skills? I can be fairly accused of trying to make a point with the benefit of hindsight, but I'm hoping that there is an important lesson in here for Falvey/Levine about talent assessment, too.
  6. LastOnePicked
    That's probably conventional wisdom, yes. But what is Baddoo's actual "position" this year? Who appears more capable of contributing to a MLB team - Baddoo or Cave? I want the FO to be able to make those kinds of assessments with accuracy - not just to rely on general conventional wisdom. I fully realize I'm being additionally tough on the FO here. But like all of you, I love this team, and I want to see them at their best with the most effective talent assessment possible. That's the only way we can build a winner here. And winning a championship is fun - I'm old enough to have seen two of them.
  7. LastOnePicked
    Yes, but I have to repeat an earlier comment - no other MLB team had better access to assess and evaluate Miranda as a player than the Twins. The Twins somehow believed he wasn't ready, and were fine with exposing him. I understand that these decisions are probably very challenging. But I'm getting weary of the idea that all of this happens just by being "unlucky." The best Front Offices find a way to maximize returns consistently. I'd rather be looking for the best than hoping these guys will get better.
  8. LastOnePicked
    I wish I could, but I just can't. They somehow had room for Jake Cave and others on the roster. Baddoo hit .390 in Spring Training. He was clearly ready to go, and any series of offseason workouts/assessments could have told them so. He was the third player drafted in Rule 5. In other words, other teams knew what we didn't know. That's just .... very bad. Plus, they also exposed their breakout 2021 Minor League Player of the Year, Jose Miranda to the Rule 5 draft. Ugh. Yes, it's tough on FO staff, but the only way to evaluate a transaction is by the results. We can give people some grace for understandable mistakes, but teams like the Twins don't have a lot of wiggle room for these kinds of mistakes. These mistakes build - they compound. A Twins team with Baddoo has less to worry about if Kiriloff goes down again or if we end up losing Buxton. Or he could have been a great young trade chip while trying to bring in pitching. More gaps need to be covered now, and all the expense of drafting and developing is a lost investment. This FO is going to get more chances here, and maybe that's as it should be. But I think the team would be fine if they decided to look for other bright young minds from other organizations who are looking for a chance to build a winner. This FO doesn't appear to be anything particularly special.
  9. LastOnePicked
    This is my biggest concern as well. No organization had a better access to assess Baddoo, and they completely misjudged. Same with LaMonte Wade. And selling low on the area of greatest need with this organization (pitching) is also really bad. Right now, the two they gave away in meaningless trades (Ynoa and Gil) are far more prominent and promising than any they've developed. That's a very, very bad sign - that means we're feeding wins to our MLB competitors. I also disagree with this: "which is no worse than the ones we saw repeatedly before they arrived." Look, bad seasons are bad seasons, but the Twins have likely never been further from their preseason expectations than they are this year. It's far worse to watch a contending team crumble to dust than it is to watch a bottom-feeding team face expected struggles. I appreciate what you're doing here, but fans can be forgiven for any anger and pessimism. This FO inherited a promising young team on the cusp of greatness. And with zero playoff wins to show for it, they have now turned it into a bottom-5 MLB team with the worst pitching staff in baseball. Is it a blip or a trend? I guess we'll find out next year.
  10. LastOnePicked
    Simmons' defense is still strong, and his field awareness is keen. If I were the manager, I'd want that experience on the field as an example to the younger players and to give the young SPs and RPs a potential boost (and maybe even to shorten their innings). But otherwise I agree - after 2021, time to move on.
  11. LastOnePicked
    Dear MLB, We know this is a bit unorthodox, but we would like to request to swap the outcomes of the last two Twins-Astros games for the first two games of the 2020 playoffs. Sincerely, Twins Fans
  12. LastOnePicked
    Good list, but I prefer that they sort out their in-house pitching prospects in 2022-23, and then make a wise trade for an ace at the deadline if they are somehow in contention.
  13. LastOnePicked
    Polanco should be very, very proud. He's made every adjustment and fought through every adversity so far. I look forward to him leading a younger, hungry team into the postseason in the (hopefully near) future.
  14. LastOnePicked
    This is going to be a patience game. Let players like Martin develop, and give them time to work through their challenges as they break into MLB. The idea of competing for the division in 2022 or 2023 seems like nonsense to me, so I don't feel any pressure for these new prospects to fill a gap for a contender. All I want is the right coaching to help them be strong, smart and competitive as ballplayers. Martin seems like he could be a reliable .300 hitter, which is great.
  15. LastOnePicked
    Excellent write-up, Matthew. Well-researched and fair-minded. A home run. I think this story hit some of us hard because it fits one of the fear narratives we have about this organization under Falvey/Levine and Baldelli/Johnson - that they've got a dogmatic approach, they think they're the smartest people in baseball, and they pay more attention to numbers than to players. Plus, us fans have been hit hard by the reality that the team we had dreamed of seeing win a championship is now breaking apart and sinking to the bottom of MLB. "We had a 100-win pace ballclub for two years and all I got was this lousy AL Central Division Title T-Shirt." But, as some cooler heads have posted here, it is possible that the Twins can adjust quickly. It is possible that some of the problems are internal, but some are maybe from the new players themselves and some are just a matter of terrible luck with regard to injury and recovery. And as you note here, in the case of Shoemaker, maybe it's all three. That said, the Twins better be very open to criticism. They've traded away top players, they've given away new young stars for absolutely nothing, and, outside of Cruz, their FA signings performed terribly. They've got a lot of fair criticism coming this offseason - from fans and from players within the organization. Time to listen and to learn some hard lessons now.
  16. LastOnePicked
    I'm sad to say it, but trusting this FO to bolster this team to anything resembling contention with FA signings seems like a real stretch after 2021. Plus, as we've seen, a lot of big names don't want to be here ... even when we were good. The path ahead is a Rays-like restructuring and a hell of a lot of patience. It will help if the FO can avoid giving away the AL Rookie of the Year to a division rivals too.
  17. LastOnePicked
    I like this, Doc. I like all of it. And I am more angry than rational right now. I've wanted to see this team finally turn it around and set this state on fire again for baseball. The pieces were all there, or so we thought. I disagree that 2019 and 2020 weren't disappointing, though. They ended with an immediate postseason whimper. Is it all just bad luck ... or something else? It seems that Rocco and the FO are all going to be given a fair shot to right the ship. We shall see how they rise to the challenge. This is no longer someone else's mess ... it's theirs alone.
  18. LastOnePicked
    The long rebuild can't be helped, I'm afraid. We're one of the five worst MLB teams, and we got significantly worse for 2022 after the Berrios trade. Cruz is also unlikely to resign here next year. So, it's going to have to be a game of patience with a rookie team. Again.
  19. LastOnePicked
    "Now the ball is in Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and the various Twins coaching staffs' court. It is on their shoulders to make the Twins' newfound prospect currency count." This is the source of my pessimism. I can't imagine a group I have less confidence in for this task. I think our talent acquisition is strong, but I have less than zero faith in the FO and staff who develop and evaluate that talent in our system. Too many great players have been given away for nothing. Too many terrible players remain. This organization needs a rebuild. It's sad. We had a clear window for a good run, and this group let it all slip through their fingers. We are now a bottom-5 MLB team. Why would they get another shot?
  20. LastOnePicked
    This is the part of the article that I don't understand: "Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have put in an infrastructure of sustainability and competitiveness." How so? They had a great 2019, an okay 2020, and are now again a bottom-5 team in all of MLB. I've watched this team for a long time, and I wouldn't describe them as remotely "competitive." It's disappointing. I wanted them to do these things, but they haven't. Not yet, at least, and patience is wearing thin.
  21. LastOnePicked
    16.62 ERA? He's gonna fit right in here. Here's hoping he can figure things out, and that our AAA staff can help.
  22. LastOnePicked
    Sadly, one of the biggest takeaways from this year for me is that though the team seems to draft quite well, they develop and evaluate/promote talent extremely poorly - and they have since the Ryan years. And that means the team pays for drafting and time in the minors, only to lose that talent. Essentially, they invest in their major league opponents. For all of the talk about our two up-and-coming OFs, Wade and Baddoo are clearly better players at this point - and they were lost for nothing. True, not many fans could have predicted that, but that's not our job. It's the FO job to make these calls. And they've been wrong far more often than they've been right this year. If that continues, this team has no hope to contend.
  23. LastOnePicked
    You seem like a sharp GM. Good moves, and sharp read of the deadline possibilities. If the Twins are serious about the belief that they can contend in 2022, the HAVE to keep Berrios and Buxton, don't they? What's the harm in seeing if the team has fight in 2022? If they falter early again, put Berrios/Buxton on the trade market in June. If Berrios/Buxton specifically falter, then you save yourself from trying to lock them into a new contract or you go year-to-year with them while they rebuild free agent value. I wouldn't trade either one of these players now in 2021 if I had even the faintest idea that this team could make a run in 2022. However, personally, I don't think they have a chance to knock the White Sox from their perch for another 2-3 years or so. So I might lean towards a greater rebuild mode than most.
  24. LastOnePicked
    This all feels too public. Buxton is struggling with overcoming terrible injury luck this year, and this is a stress he doesn't need. Why have the offer details leaked from the Twins FO? It feels very much like a set-up to make Buxton look like the bad guy for turning down an offer, but this just should not be being discussed publicly right now. Plenty of time in the offseason. It's not like the Twins FO would sell low on him before the 2021 deadline - that would be incredibly unwise.
  25. LastOnePicked
    I'm going to have to do a little research on the concept of a "deceptive fastball." I hear that term bandied about, but I don't understand it in a major league context. Seems like the only thing that a straight fastball can do to deceive a big-league hitter is to be incredibly fast. Good trade. I hope. Though I'm afraid the Rays will turn the AA pitcher they got from us into some kind of an ace.
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