stringer bell

Wallner’s sprint speed is 67th percentile, faster than two thirds of mlb players. Royce is a little faster than that. Speed (or lack of it) would not eliminate Lewis from playing center field. Lewis has played precious little on the grass. We don’t really know what kind of jumps he would get, if he has an outfield arm or the right instincts. He’s a great athlete, so I would expect he could adapt to the OF, but he is unproven, for sure BTW, it isn’t pure leg speed. Acuña of the Braves is measured as slower than Wallner, but he stole 73 bases last year.

For the right price, adding Meyers makes sense. Low salary, excellent defense and some hope of being okay offensively.

Farmer’s role in 2024 would be diminished because of Lewis being able to slide over and play short if Correa suffered a disabling injury (or Lee coming up to fill that void). He does hit left handed pitching well and is versatile, but so are Castro, Miranda and Martin. Speed and range were never pluses for him, but he’d be another year older (34 in August), so I doubt his range will increase.

Not really trying to rip on Gordon, but he isn’t fast. He is a 50 percentile runner (Sprint speed of 27.3).

Seth Stohs wrote: Biggest Question Marks: Gordon has had several injuries in his career. And while his 2022 season was just as good as Willi Castro’s 2023 season, Castro is the better defensive player at each spot on the field. Gordon is also out of options, so he couldn’t be sent to the minor leagues by the Twins without going through waivers. Rather than quoting the entire article, I want to disagree with this statement that I bolded. Castro and Gordon hit similarly in the years Seth mentioned, but there is no comparison in their overall seasons--Castro was the superior defender and capably plays more positions and Willi also provided much more value due to his base running ability.

Miller's brother, Owen, is already in the majors. I think Noah will be a regular major league shortstop and develop his hit tool. It's a long way from high A to the majors, but he's young.

Part of the reason for protecting players is the probability that they would be lost in the Rule V draft. Pitchers and (IMHO) catchers are more likely to be claimed. It is difficult to keep a position player on a roster for an entire season unless the club isn't really interested in winning. The four guys the Twins put on the 40-man would have been near-certain claims by other teams. I don't know if any of the players they didn't protect will be claimed. Looking at the 40-man as of now, there isn't much depth or upside in the pitching and they have no player who profiles as a healthy center fielder.

I have three artificial joints due to arthritic degeneration and that is what I suspect is at play here. Buxton has suffered multiple injuries in his career, but the problem that sidetracked both 2022 and 2023 is his knee. Pain and swelling despite the efforts of Buxton and the training staff seem to indicate a chronic injury, maybe arthritic. Maybe excising the plica takes care of his problem, but somehow I doubt that. I wish Byron nothing but the best, but I have moved on from expecting/hoping that he can play great center field and get 600 plate appearances. I agree that the Twins have to plan as though he won't be available, but still leave a place for him, a tough needle to thread. I don't think first base is a realistic option.

Of note is that the Twins added four players to be protected and none of them are pitchers. They are losing five arms (Mahle, Keuchel, Maeda, Gray, Pagán) to free agency and added none. That math tells me that what the Twins add in the off season will be principally pitching.

I recall a poll about who will succeed Correa at shortstop. I chose Miller and still think he will be the player to take the reins at shortstop when Correa is through there.

Hernandez will probably get a lot more than the money that Kepler is making in '24, but the key thing is the years. The top free agents always get multiple years and just about every team has somebody in the minors they think can replace a Kepler, Polanco or Hernandez for minimum salary. I think to a lot of teams getting a Kepler or Polanco (solid MLB regulars) for a single season at fair market rate is worth it, even with losing pitching or prospects.

mlbtraderumors.com is out with their Top 25 Trade Candidates. The Twins have three players listed (Kepler, Polanco, Vázquez). Vázquez at #23 was a mild surprise to me given his remaining contract and poor offensive season last year, but his defense was sound. Here's that link: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/top-25-offseason-trade-candidates.html

If Buxton is not the DH, there is room for all three. I believe Polanco's productions can be matched by Julien and a platoon partner. The $10M+ is a bargain for a club looking for more punch at second base, but it would give the Twins valuable spending room. Two other factors--Polanco (IMHO) is only really viable as a second baseman. I thought he was dreadful at third base and the club has really moved him completely away from shortstop. Secondly, I think it is possible Polanco will decline quickly and soon. Players age differently, but I feel like he has slowed noticeably, perhaps due to injury.

I concur that it shouldn't be called "hate" of Austin Martin. I think perhaps people have been disappointed in his performance and his shortcomings have been highlighted too much. I said this a year ago and I'll say it again--Austin Martin has precisely the skill set that the Twins need. He's a right handed hitter who profiles to make contact and get on base. He has well above average speed and may develop into a real threat on the bases and he's a versatile defender who may be able to play league average defense in center field. Much of his profile is speculation. If he's able to perform as has been speculated, he'll have a large role for the '24 Twins and beyond.

Getting a better-than-#4-#5 starter and a center fielder would eat up all of that $20M and more. I just don’t see the Twins putting up the money for a 1B/DH. Ideally, having a guy that plays outfield and is capable in center and can fill first base and hits right handed would be great. I just don’t see anyone who checks all the boxes.

2022 Twins outfielder Mark Contreras has signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox.

1B/DH only CJ Cron is about all I can see the Twins spending for. Turner was tabbed at one year--$16M, which would be a budget buster for even a $140M budget IMHO. Hoskins was even higher.

I don't know where to find trade values, but I'd like to suggest acquiring one of St. Louis' excess outfielders in exchange for Trevor Larnach and a pitcher. Dylan Carlson is the guy I think fits best with the Twins. He's a switch hitter with good splits against left handers and he's center field capable. The arbitration estimate is only $1.8M. Adding Carlson would make Larnach expendable IMHO, but Carlson would be Option A to fill center field if/when Buxton can't play there. Larnach and Festa might be an overpay, so perhaps the Twins could get a high-ceiling minor leaguer (not on the 40-man) in addition.

I don't think the 2022 for Gordon profiles near as well as 2023 does for Castro. Hitting-wise they are similar, but defense, base running and versatility all favor Castro by a wide margin. Willi's speed and base running are far superior to Gordon and he's a better defender at second, short and third and pretty equal in the outfield (I'd favor Castro there as well). If there's only room for one true utility player, it has to be Castro.

Late to this thread, so apologies if this has been covered, once a player is tendered a contract, they are eligible for arbitration, so the arb number would be the floor for the coming year's salary. If the Twins can get Farmer to agree to a below-market perhaps multi-year contract, it has to be before the non-tender deadline. Farmer's value as the backup shortstop is lessened in the coming year with Lewis on the squad and Lee ready to come up from St. Paul for any disabling injury to Correa. Willi Castro can play a decent shortstop to fill in for a day or two.

I will say that I'm a big Kirilloff fan but I have a hard time with defensive rating in his case. Especially compared to recent guys who have played a lot of first base for the Twins (Miranda, Arraez and Solano). He wasn't clean at first in the half season that he played there in 2023, but he made his share of good stretches, scoops and fielding plays. Being left handed has plain advantages in playing the position, and that combined with with prospect reports that regarded him as a good defender at first, tells me that he would be fine going forward as a first baseman. The Twins blueprint last year was to have depth at positions where the incumbent has an injury history and it would be prudent to do so in Kirilloff's case, but I would hope that any player brought in for depth would be able to play elsewhere than just be a first baseman. Further, AK, if healthy, would still have to show he can handle LH pitching, so having a capable right handed bat to cover first base does make sense.

Here are my obscure Immaculate Grids for yesterday and today. I’m going for the lowest score with the most ex-Twins. Yesterday I could have used Shannon Stewart instead of Molitor for 200 hits with the Blue Jays.

Farmer non-tendered or traded for a minor leaguer or two. Polanco traded to Seattle for a relief pitcher (I picked Speier from last year's stats, really have no clue) and prospect(s). Larnach traded with near-ready pitcher (Woods Richardson?) for Carlson and a younger prospect. Rodriguez or Giolito picked up in free agency. My guess is whichever is less highly regarded goes to the Twins. Gordon and Martin duke it out for last player on the team. If Gordon wins, Martin goes to the minors, if Martin wins, Gordon gets a DFA. C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Dylan Carlson ($1.80M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) 4th OF: Austin Martin ($0.77M) Utility: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Jose Miranda ($0.77M) Backup C: Christian Vázquez ($10.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Lucas Giolito ($20.00M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Gabe Speier ($0.77M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 9.71% under budget

I like the idea of trading a young left handed bat for pitching, be it Larnach, Wallner or Julien. The latter two likely have more value currently, but also have clear roles for the 2024 Twins. Rogers was pretty good before getting injured IIRC, and would be controlled for a shorter time. Cabrera would be a more speculative get, but could really flourish with regular work and good health.

mlbtraderumors.com is predicting 2 years-$18M for Hoskins. While that number isn’t impossible for the Twins to meet, I think it would preclude a major signing for center field and perhaps for the rotation. If either Polanco or Kepler is dealt, maybe the Twins will spend that kind of money on a 1B-DH. Turner would fill a similar role, but being older, he might be available for a similar annual rate on a one-year deal.