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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    Subtract another one. Ortega was claimed by the Astros.
  2. stringer bell
    Adding faster, more athletic players will add more stolen bases. Unfortunately, that also means subtracting slower, less athletic guys like Solano and Farmer. I’d also add that Julien seem limited by leg issues most of his season with the Twins. His history is that of a pretty good base stealers i would expect more from him next year.
  3. stringer bell
    Hicks' revival began as soon as he left the Bronx. His OPS for the Orioles was .806 (127 OPS+). He's still a capable outfielder who could play center on occasion and has always had much better platoon splits against left handed pitching. There's enough there to seriously consider acquiring him.
  4. stringer bell
    I don’t think they can bring back everyone on the position player side. Allowing for Kirilloff and Buxton to start on the IL, but bringing back Solano, Farmer and MAT, plus picking up the options for Kepler and Polanco, the Twins have about 15 players for 13 spots and that is allowing for Miranda, Larnach and Martin in the minors. Farmer’s role will be diminished with other guys capable of playing short, and Solano will turn 36 this winter. Gordon is out of options and not really trusted in the infield. I move on from all three of them. A starter better than Varland needs to be added and center field depth has to be provided for, probably with a right handed hitter. It seems clear to me that the Twins will have to sacrifice position player depth to augment their losses. Adding a bullpen arm would be a good move, as well.
  5. stringer bell
    Well, I don't see Stevenson and Gordon as comparable. Stevenson has enough speed to be a threat on the bases and is a plus defender in left and center. Gordon might be a good hitter against right handed pitching and is okay in left and center and can play in the infield. What people seem to think is that Gordon is really fast. His sprint speed is on a par with Alex Kirilloff.
  6. stringer bell
    Luplow is a definite non-tender/release. They DFAed him before an injury put him back on the roster. Alcalá is an interesting case. He's got a lot of service time with not much time on the active roster. When he's healthy, he has promise, but he hasn't been healthy for most of the last two years and there is no guarantee that he will be in the future. The real cost for Alcalá is the 40-man spot. I guess I'd tender him and when the Twins parted company with Celestino to activate him, it shows the Twins do think he is worth quite a bit. I've never been a huge Gordon fan, although I do see him as a "team guy" who was a constant in the dugout cheering on his teammates. If the Twins can trade him for something, they should do it. He is a good enough player to be in the majors, but he doesn't fit with the Twins.
  7. stringer bell
    I appreciate what Farmer did last year and I think he was a valuable member of the 2023 Twins. That said, the team can't live in the past. Farmer is 33, this year the Twins figure to have others to back up Carlos Correa and he will make a lot of money for a utility player.
  8. stringer bell
    Regarding errors, there were probably at least 6-10 plays where Correa could have/should have made a play and wasn't charged with an error. Even adding in those plays as errors, he still was very competent in turning outs into outs.
  9. stringer bell
    I can't see where the Twins can trade Vázquez and get anything more than salary relief and maybe not even that. I would expect that he'll rebound in 2024 to some degree. I have little confidence that Camargo would be a decent backup catcher, but we probably will find out in 2024. It is extremely doubtful that both Jeffers and Vázquez get through two consecutive seasons without injury. Depth is needed at catcher and it is not a position where the Twins have depth.
  10. stringer bell
    Certainly Farmer could be on the roster with Jeffers and Lewis, but if his usage is limited to finding some at-bats in the infield against left handed pitching, he won’t be worth the +$6M price tag. The Twins figure to have better, cheaper options to be bench and short side platoon players. Brooks Lee isn’t “some random unknown player”. He’s the Twins #1 prospect and in the Top 100 of all MLB. Trading Farmer would subtract what is now redundant depth for a considerable cost savings.
  11. stringer bell
    In an earlier post, I disagreed with a criticism of Baldelli. For the record, I think he's a decent manager, but not among the very best. Most of what a manager does is limited by his roster. You can't have much of a running game if your whole team is made up of plow horses. You can't play for the big inning when you don't have power, etc. Rocco showed that he is amenable to playing small ball with squeeze bunts and double steals when he had the right personnel at the plate or on the bases. He also showed he doesn't have a particularly quick hook for starting pitchers. I don't think the Pythagorean argument really holds much water. It's a nice view of a team's strength, but sometimes, like this year's Padres, you continue to lose close games. I would expect a run closer to the Pythag next year because of regression to the mean (same for the Padres BTW). I didn't like the aggressive pinch hitting moves, particularly subbing right handed hitters for lefties when the other team had several right handed relief pitching options. I thought he handled the bullpen well. It did seem like most of the season he was looking at the big picture and wasn't willing to risk overusing a pitcher and maybe that was helped by not having any other good teams in the division. In the end, managers all know a lot of baseball and they have much more information than the average fan. A manager that has success one year doesn't get stupid the next when the team flounders. They may, however, lose the clubhouse because they didn't treat players properly or were duplicitous in their dealing with them. Rocco seems to be very well-liked by his players.
  12. stringer bell
    Perhaps the hidden defect in having a 40-man roster full of players is that there isn't a lot of room for more players, especially if some players can't be optioned to the minors. I just don't think there is room for Donovan Solano, Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer on the 2-24 Twins. If that is true, who goes and how do they go? I do believe the 40-man crisis on the pitching side is less of an issue, especially with key pitchers Maeda, Gray and Pagán all free agents. Add in the uncertainty of TV revenue for 2024, and the Twins may not be able to add through free agency while losing several players, stripping them of the depth that was so vital last year. However, there are players on the horizon that may add to the top level--Martin, Lee, Severino--but that is not a sure thing. There are several players who appear to be excess at this point. Trevor Larnach, perhaps Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon to name a few, really don't have a role going forward if everyone is healthy. However, the Twins probably need major league depth in waiting in center field and they still need an outfielder that fares well against left handed pitching. Perhaps some of the excess can be traded for those needs, but again there goes the depth. In this scenario, the Twins are going to have to count on their minor league depth to step in and step up. Wallner, Lewis and Julien did that last year. Can Martin, Lee and a couple of pitchers do so next year?
  13. stringer bell
    Good strategy by Baker. If things aren’t working, try to change the tempo. The Astros have been outstanding on the road. After going to Arlington down 0-2, they are coming home up 3-2.
  14. stringer bell
    I disagree. I do think injury reporting is thankless—Rocco is limited in what he can say and doesn’t want to reveal anything that would give opponents a competitive advantage. I would like to see examples of minimizing injuries, as well.
  15. stringer bell
    Defense is just hard to measure. Positioning, arm strength, instincts and "making the right play" should all figure in. We have known since Correa was acquired (the first time) that he is not speedy (below average sprint speed), but that his reach (6'4") and big arm made up for the lack of range. Correa makes all the plays and has excelled at turning outs into outs. Probably he doesn't get enough credit for that. Or maybe whoever does the analysis of defense automatically penalizes whoever goes to the Twins. In the last several years, the Twins have added three guys regarded as elite defenders--Andrelton Simmons, Josh Donaldson and Correa--and each has seen their defensive stats suffer (Donaldson's rebounded when he went to NY).
  16. stringer bell
    I guess my thought is that if Kirilloff is very likely back and fully healed by June 1st, I'd plan to cover first base internally. Plan A would be a platoon of Julien and Miranda. If there is uncertainty that AK will return healthy, then maybe a more permanent plan should be in the works. Severino is intriguing, although the Ks are concerning.
  17. stringer bell
    For a day or two, Willi Castro (he was preferred to Gordon when Nick was healthy) and for a disabling injury, Brooks Lee. Farmer isn't needed for the key utility role of alternate shortstop. He does hit left handed pitching well, which is something the Twins definitely can use. However, with the emergence of Lewis and Jeffers, that need is less. It would be helpful is the Twins had an outfielder that hit LH pitching well, but that isn't Farmer.
  18. stringer bell
    Both Andrew Stevenson and José De León have been outrighted to St. Paul. That will reduce the number on the 40-man roster.
  19. stringer bell
    Yes, I just saw that. Mods, should this go on "other baseball"? I'm guessing Dan won't be invited to any Twins reunions.
  20. stringer bell
    Two of TK’s “favorites”. I’ll add that I thought both of these guys could be stars, but they could never establish themselves.
  21. stringer bell
    Weren't the same things said about Gio last fall? They are similar, but not identical players. Farmer is certainly more versatile, (although Urshela played short and first for the Angels) and has more power and more pronounced platoon splits. Farmer is 33. He can't afford to lose a step and continue to be an adequate middle infielder IMHO and he may lose that step. The Twins no longer really need him as a backup shortstop with Lewis and soon Lee on the major league roster. His value is enhanced due to the slim pickings in free agency. If the Twins can get appreciable value for him, they should trade him.
  22. stringer bell
    I think that in any trade scenario, replacement needs to be considered. The dearth of MLB-ready catching really rules out moving Jeffers IMHO. Another consideration would be if there is more room to reach the player's ceiling. Perhaps a player like Castro has reached that ceiling, perhaps not. I think that Jeffers is a ways from his ceiling, although he had some pretty good batted ball luck this year.
  23. stringer bell
    I'm a believer in Kirilloff's ability. He has had a career's worth of injuries already and he hasn't reached his 26th birthday. I think AK's injury history dictates that the Twins have a doable backup plan for him. I think having Julien and Miranda as an Opening Day platoon is a decent plan, given that both players could move to other positions if Kirilloff recovers rapidly and hits the ground running. If Alex is slow to recover there are other people capable of playing second or third, so Julien and Miranda won't be missed there. This is another case where we are pretty much in the dark. It isn't clear when Kirilloff will be ready to go and it also is unknown if he'll recover fully. We will be able to infer from front office transactions how serious the threat is to Kirilloff's future.
  24. stringer bell
    K/PA% is the best way to look at the strikeout problem. For example, Taylor walked much less than Julien or Wallner. The Twins struck out a ton, including veterans with track records of better results (Farmer, Solano, Vázquez), so maybe some blame goes on coaching or hitting philosophy. The second-year players might improve their K percentages with further experience and adding an Austin Martin for Taylor or Miranda for Gallo would improve the numbers some, but strikeouts will doubtless continue to be a problem. If the Twins can produce as they did post All-Star break, the high strikeout numbers would be acceptable.
  25. stringer bell
    I think Miranda could and should assume the role that Solano had for the Twins in 2023, probably minus any time at second base. He certainly has better power than Solano and makes contact as much. His 2021 and 2022 seasons looked like he had a chance to become a near-elite hitter. If Kirilloff can't go to start '24, some type of platoon between Miranda and Julien would make sense, with both players able to play other positions if AK is ready to become the primary 1B. We don't know exactly how much the shoulder injury hindered Jose, but it is fair to assume that the injury had some negative effect on his play during the season. A defense that has Julien and Miranda as their first basemen might be suspect, but I think both guys can be adequate with hard work.
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