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Dodecahedron

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Everything posted by Dodecahedron

  1. Dodecahedron
    Baldelli's insistence on limiting how long the starters pitch contributes to the implosion of the bullpen. It's a team effort -- if the bullpen pieces aren't working, the starters can stay in for another couple of batters if their pitches are still working. Happ would rather go to the playoffs than have his 2.00 ERA protected through September. It's OK to use your eyes and ears to see if a pitcher needs to be pulled instead of a pitch count.
  2. Dodecahedron
    The Mariners traded for Colome in May, back in the day. Of course, it appears Colome is a hot potato.
  3. Dodecahedron
    I'm pretty sure his ex ended up with Hitchens. His new cat's name is Wiglaf. Good write-up otherwise tho.
  4. Dodecahedron
    Buxton had some really incredible games. 17% of his career WAR happened last month, along with 24% of his oWAR. He is on track to make some major bank in arbitration next year.
  5. Dodecahedron
    The Shoemaker and Colome signings surprised all of us. I suspected Shoemaker would block Dobnak and that Dobnak would fail in the bullpen, but most people but a more positive spin on it. Either way, it certainly did not feel to me like Shoemaker was going to succeed as a starter. Honestly I thought he would be cut after spring training. Dobnak and Shoemaker should have their roles switched, at a minimum. Like it or not, Shoemaker is here now and the Twins may as well try to find a spot for him that works before they cut him loose. As for Colome, I felt the only reason he could have been on the market was if he had an attitude issue. By "attitude issue" I am not saying he is a poison in the clubhouse, although that's possible, I'm saying he might have a reputation of not being a hard worker. I have never read anything like this about him, mind you, this is just my suspicion. Colome has been traded a couple of times for some very unexciting players, and the Rays of all teams even ate his salary in one of those trades. Seattle could not trade him fast enough even though he had a very good year for them. The White Sox had no interested in bringing him back, he sat on the free market for a long time, and the Twins got a very team-friendly deal. There is something going on with him that doesn't show up on the stat sheet.
  6. Dodecahedron
    Unofficial reports have been saying that Buxton wasn't interested in talking about it when the Twins approached him to talk about his contract. If true, I doubt that has changed in the past month.
  7. Dodecahedron
    You're forgetting an important point... The Twins can win this division without being particularly "good." Are the Twins yet in any danger at all of not winning the division? Not at all. If you are responding to people writing the Twins can still win the division: yes, they can. Many would say the Twins still have the inside edge, even pundits outside of Minnesota. You can bank other divisional teams are not betting on the slow start continuing. No one in baseball believes Sano will be a .111 hitter for the rest of his career, and that's just one example of many. In a division of flawed teams, the Twins have the most power, and it seems strange to say after years of endless "prospects" and other AAAA players on the roster, but they are also the team with the most experience. The Twins winning the division would surprise exactly no one. Now, are the Twins good enough to deserve being in the playoffs, and good enough to win a playoff game? That remains to be seen. That's not impossible either, but for this too it is too early to tell.
  8. Dodecahedron
    Dobnak is a starter. Don't be too concerned with his poor performance thus far, which largely came in the 8th and 9th innings. Dobnak is not a closer.
  9. Dodecahedron
  10. Dodecahedron
    Whoever dominates this division will win the division. But ... dominating this particular division might not make someone a "contender" in the playoffs. In fact I would say it probably doesn't. I agree with some others that the Twins still have the most pieces, but that bullpen piece that seems to be missing is one hell of a big one.
  11. Dodecahedron
    Sure, but we can still celebrate a fun win. Yes it's very tempting to be snarky and say something like, "Baldelli's genius game plan to hit 3 home runs in the first inning proves his diabolical baseball mind was just waiting for the right moment to strike!" But saying that is less fun than enjoying the win. A baseball season is a process, yesterday is old news.
  12. Dodecahedron
    It's truly wonderful to see Buxton leading off a game and not imploding. Quite the opposite. He might finally be ready to lead off.
  13. Dodecahedron
    Good game. I just want to say that the video screen at Progressive Field is frigging huge.
  14. Dodecahedron
    The risk of this happening seems pretty low, and I think most of us would probably be OK with it if he left. Forgetting about the Rockies, one factor could be his opinion of the city/state as a whole. Does he have family there? Does he love the area? Does he like the rapidly changing severe weather? Is he a Continental Divide aficionado? Is he a fan of the wacky tabacky? Does Pikes Peak give him goose bumps? Does he always win at mountain goat trivia? These are important questions that I suddenly must know the answers to, even if he stays in Minnesota.
  15. Dodecahedron
    I would say that most switch hitters have no business doing it. However, if you made it to the majors as a "switch hitter", management is depending on you doing it. They plan games based on you doing it. Even if you lobbied to stop doing it, they'd probably force you to keep doing it and work on coaching you.
  16. Dodecahedron
    Very true. If Garver and Jeffers can just start having good at-bats, a lot of the criticism goes away, even if their batting averages remain on the low side. Going deep into counts, moving runners over, fixing that glove for the 50th time when in the batter's box, and otherwise being a pain in the arse for the other team when in the batter's box brings value. If Garver can't hit right now, he can just foul off a half a dozen pitches in every at bat until the pitcher gets frustrated and tosses a meatball. Turn the tables by being a pest and wearing down the other team's patience! If you can't beat 'em by hitting, beat 'em by being annoying.
  17. Dodecahedron
    Santana was very good in 2006, and I have never seen a player come up and pitch like Liriano did. Liriano's half-season was the best I have ever seen a pitcher pitch and I don't expect to see something like that again in my lifetime. The 2006 Twins also had an unstoppable closer and nearly-unstoppable set-up man. Mauer was in HOF form. Punto was flashing not just a gold glove, but a platinum one. My honest take is the 2006 Twins would tear apart the current team in a face-to-face matchup series. Their bullpen was nasty, they had some hitters doing incredible things, and they played good defense. That team spent most of the season with 1.5 starters and blew past everybody once they got going. If the current team wants to hold a candle to the 2006 Twins, they've got to start playing defense and closing out games.
  18. Dodecahedron
    True, but I am reminded of Gardenhire's firing, with the GM stating in the press conference that the poor performance of the team was his fault, not Gardy's, but the owners demanded a change. Meanwhile, the GM was allowed to continue doing the same thing for a few more years with the same poor results. I really think the GM at this time was viewing his role as a part time job. I agree that Baldelli is not going anywhere, nor should he. I see people rightfully questioning his in-game decisions, but I have not seen much in the way of calling for him to be fired. As for the front office being to blame, sure, but I think this was a difficult offseason. If I were running the team, I would not feel comfortable making significant changes in the FO. But it's a long season, I may change my mind if we are looking down the barrel of 100 losses again. And yeah, if I were in charge, I'd not be too happy with Baldelli right now. No one else is having Dobnak close out games, etc. But I would hope this is correctable at this point. If the narrative is true the Baldelli is a numbers guy, he has a hell of a lot of numbers now to show his decisions were off.
  19. Dodecahedron
    The 2011 and 2016 teams seemed to have "bad luck" early on, or at least we believed it was "bad luck" until reality settled in. With both of those teams, the body language of the players was telling. We also see this body language in the playoffs with the Twins, and we saw it at the end of last year before the playoffs. It is not impossible for teams to snap out of these funks, but history implies it's not easy. This might be a long year, and with the Twins spending more than usual, it could be a dire sign of another "rebuild" on the horizon. Hopefully the owners are not thinking this way and the 2020s will not mirror the 2010s.
  20. Dodecahedron
    Ah, gotcha. I'm guessing the difference we are seeing is I am looking at OPS, and you are looking at wRC+.
  21. Dodecahedron
    I think you really need a game manager who has some idea of the how/when/why of making pitching changes. Molitor didn't know this and Baldelli shows the same tendencies. Molitor has trouble managing pitching in games, solution: hire a numbers guy. Baldelli is a numbers guy, has trouble managing pitching in games, solution: ...? See what happened there, the Twins made a change that did not address the original problem. For a hitting coach, being a "numbers guy" helps you find those elusive barrels. For a pitching coach, being a "numbers guy" helps you find the holes in the strike zone. For the manager, being a numbers guy helps you ... fill in the lineup card? OK.... Math in a vacuum is often just a vacuum, the trick is the application. The application of math is not in the spreadsheet, it's on the field, it's responding to in-game situations effectively. There is a sector of math called "Game Theory" for a reason: responding to situations that are likely to give you the most beneficial outcome. For this to be happening, you have to watch what's going on and react.
  22. Dodecahedron
    Now I am even more confused. There are more than 15 catchers in the AL and a lot more than 30 in the MLB. Are you looking at team stats? There are 32 players who have caught a game in the AL. This makes sense as teams carry around two catchers and the season is young. Garver's OPS has him at #19. The middle would be #16. My eyeballs tell me that about half of the catchers below him are starters, but also about half of the catchers above him are starters. No, I did not manually count to confirm. In the MLB, there are 65 catchers. This number also makes sense. Garver is #42. Not great, but still in the middle third (albeit just barely). Yes, he is closer to the middle than the bottom. For a three-week old season, I'm thinking these numbers suck but they're not a good reason to make changes, unless he is injured. Look, I am not questioning that Garver needs to get better and fast. However, I don't like the, "His good year was a fluke, I KNEW IT!" going around. Give the guy a chance. He performed well in the minors, well enough to be a very good hitting catcher, but it clearly takes him time to get warm. He has barely played for 2 years.
  23. Dodecahedron
    Garver is qualified? The site I looked at did not think so. In any case, I object to the my classification of "in the middle" as being "at the exact midpoint." Yes, he is "closer to the bottom" but he is still in the middle of the pack and only one or two spots from the middle. There are 6-8 catchers with more at bats and games than Garver who are ranked much worse in addition to the riffraff catchers in the bottom third. I appreciate you looking at data before responding, don't get me wrong.
  24. Dodecahedron
    He is just below the middle among catchers. Regarding catching defense, yes he is near the middle. But, SSS.
  25. Dodecahedron
    Seems like there are a couple of guys on this team who are feast or famine. At this point in this young season, it's difficult to avoid the comparisons to the 2016 team. - Bad bullpen management, check - Bullpen meltdowns late in games, check - Hitters who are swinging for the fences with poor success, check This team can turn it around, but the clock is ticking. 100 losses can come up on ya fast.
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