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Dodecahedron

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Everything posted by Dodecahedron

  1. Dodecahedron
    Baldelli is clearly a good guy, a smart guy, and a baseball guy. We see it often in the NFL where smart ex-players get into coaching and fail miserably.* Maybe it even happens more often than not. Before going on too long about it, it's a fair opinion that Baldelli does not seem to have the right analytical skills to be a game manager. The team narrative is they are focused on raw numbers now, if that's accurate, I think the poster has a worthwhile opinion. *Yes, Baldelli has not failed miserably.
  2. Dodecahedron
    Opt Speaking of The Beagles, we can also retread some old hits. 5. Demote the current staff, call Terry Ryan, and have him sell everything and essentially turn the Twins into an expansion team.
  3. Dodecahedron
    The first one seems most likely, and that's fine. There is no reason to sell everything not nailed down. However, I would add that shopping Sano around could yield a net plus.
  4. Dodecahedron
    Hm. Another bad managerial decision that no one else would have made. Oh well, the players took care of it this time.
  5. Dodecahedron
    OK, but aren't these guys veterans? They're not wind-up robots that the are under the supreme control of the pitching coach. The players know what to do, know how to do it, and know that they can say "no" if someone is feeding them garbage.
  6. Dodecahedron
    Depends on what the rest of the AL is doing. Getting up to .500 by the trade deadline could be good enough to crawl back in it. But, at the same time, the Twins have to realize at some point that simply making the playoffs doesn't mean much, as their worst-in-all-of-human-history futility in the postseason illustrates. Even if the Twins go 40-10 over the next six weeks (ha), they are still only built to "just make it there and hope for luck."
  7. Dodecahedron
    This is an organization that doesn't have a traditional closer or traditional set-up guy, an organization that flirted with using openers. This is a team that this year moved a pitcher with a pure starting profile to the pen and started someone who had no business starting. This is an organization who kept starting a 100MPH hurler in the minors instead of moving him to the pen. This organization is building pitching staffs based on numbers in a spreadsheet with little consideration for where that pitcher will fit in the context of a game plan. It's not just that things didn't work out, it's that none of us would have been making these same decisions. This team has been building fantasy rosters, not baseball rosters. Yes, they don't get it when it comes to pitching.
  8. Dodecahedron
    Isn't the pitcher a part of the team? This is why you analyze further. How much of the measurement was due to this particular individual on the team? You want this to be a black and white issue. It's just not.
  9. Dodecahedron
    The Twins need consistency at the position. Sano's one-trick is his power bat. If were in contention and I needed more power on my team, Sano would be on the list. The Twins are in a different situation. It's not just that the Twins are not in contention, it's that they have different needs. And yes, if I traded for Sano, I would try to trade him in the offseason unless he delivered something really special.
  10. Dodecahedron
    I suppose if you budget X for the 1B position, then trading Sano, paying part of his salary, and paying someone much less to play for your team could end up being the same amount of $ or could save $. So should the Twins pay the same amount to have a more consistent/better player at 1B? Sano's salary is not in the stratosphere. Heck, his salary is average. There may be a power-hungry team out there who would take the plunge without costing the Twins much if anything when it comes to cash. I would certainly consider Sano if I were running a team in contention. The Twins have others who can step into 1B and would only need prospects or pitching in return.
  11. Dodecahedron
    The leaguewide batting average is .237 right now. Only 5 teams have batting averages over .250. Sano's career batting average is .238 and he has only hit over .250 twice. If Sano can start delivering in clutch moments we will all feel much better about him, even with a mediocre batting average. Unfortunately, just as it is with anyone who has a high amount of drama around them, delivering the goods when others need him is probably not in the cards for Sano. I hope Sano does well for the rest of the year, and I also hope the Twins start to see what they have with him and let him go. He is replaceable.
  12. Dodecahedron
    I can't quantify how important wins are. I can't quantify how important any stat is. Honestly, it varies by player. Not every player is on the same team, plays in the same situations, or even has the same skills. Data Analysis 101: Look for outliers and use them as signposts for further analysis. If a pitcher started 33 games and won 20 of them, that sticks out and you should be using that knowledge to look deeper. If a pitcher started 33 games and won 5 of them, that's another signpost. If a pitcher won 10-12 games, that's normal and you can toss the wins stat out the window for that guy, the stat won't help you. This is true for any metric. When analyzing data, the more metrics you have the better. Nothing is noise. Start with the outlier stats and work your way in, not vice-versa.
  13. Dodecahedron
    Two issues: 1) I don't recall saying "wins are important." If I did say that, I misspoke. The point I have been making is that wins are not "useless information" -- wins mean something, even if that "something" is just a small part of the story. Just pulling out a number, but if a stat tells 5%-10% of the story about a player, that's meaningful. That's not "useless information." 2) As you say, you outlined premises to prove your case. To me, those same premises prove that wins are good information to have to understand a pitcher. There's no need to repeat yourself, I understand what you are saying. I disagree. Like most of the people on this website, I have thought about this issue for years and I came to my own conclusion. Redact data on your player stat sheets at your own peril.
  14. Dodecahedron
    This is a good teaching moment. There is no single uberstat in baseball. Every metric is useless on its own. Complicating matter is, as you are learning, no one has the same opinion on each metric. You are not arguing anything unexpected, it's normal for people to argue wins for pitchers and RBIs for hitters are useless information because others in the press have argued as such. The truth remains that wins are still a part of telling the story about a pitcher, or learning about a pitcher. A pitcher with wins or losses outside of the norm means something. What that "something" is needs more analysis on a case-by-case basis.
  15. Dodecahedron
    Even if this were all it signifies, this is an important part of the story.
  16. Dodecahedron
    PItcher wins is not a useless stat, it's just a stat that doesn't tell the whole story. Baseball is full of stats that don't tell the whole story.
  17. Dodecahedron
    Yelling and/or punching things never feels as satisfying as one thinks it will.
  18. Dodecahedron
    Ouch.
  19. Dodecahedron
    Pitching out of the bullpen is one of the hardest jobs in baseball. There is no question in my mind that the bullpen arms are often the difference between winning and losing.
  20. Dodecahedron
    Part of umpires being "human" is them being biased. I don't think umpires are "corrupt" -- a scandal like that would be just as bad for the game as another long labor strike -- but yes like most people who have 100% of the power in a situation, there are issues around that. If the game went to an electronic strike zone, the umpire would still need to be back there, so don't worry about anybody losing their job or the game losing any of its theater.
  21. Dodecahedron
    No idea. They flirted with signing Darvish after signing others in the same year. Their offer wasn't a serious one in the opinion of anyone except themselves, mind you.
  22. Dodecahedron
    The riffraff gotta riff, I suppose.
  23. Dodecahedron
    You're forgetting one thing: This FO does not seem to be afraid to chase high profile free agents and make interesting trades. There is less pressure to sell early because building from within is no longer the only option. We might not see a "full on rebuild" with the Twins for a long time. Not that this approach guarantees success, of course. I would be surprised if this FO does a complete strip down in the style we are used to, but we'll find out in a couple of months.
  24. Dodecahedron
    He kind of is the guy. His offensive production right now, on the downside of his career, equals the person he replaced at 3B at his peak (OPS+). His defense is unquestionably better over there, too, even if he is not perfect. Injuries suck, but his games played is not far behind the league qualifiers. What's wrong with 25 home runs? (I think your estimate is high, mind you, but I would take 25 home runs from almost anybody). I would not have signed Donaldson, and I admit I'm still very questioning of his future. But hey, he's doing his job. The Twins goal with signing Donaldson was probably two-fold: minimize the offensive drop-off at the position from Sano (check), and improve the defense (check).
  25. Dodecahedron
    I agree, I think it's harsh. I was always skeptical of his signing, but he is contributing. He is "serviceable" that's for sure.
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